Market Overview. TFI World Fertilizer Conference. September 2015 MARKET OVERVIEW

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1 Market Overview TFI World Fertilizer Conference September 2015 MARKET OVERVIEW

2 FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS This presentation contains forward-looking statements" (within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995) or forward-looking information (within the meaning of appropriate Canadian securities legislation) that relate to future events or our future performance. These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements often contain words such as should, could, expect, may, anticipate, believe, intend, estimates, plans and similar expressions. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions as set forth in this document, including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates. While we consider these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. The results or events set forth in forwardlooking statements may differ materially from actual results or events. Several factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in forward-looking statements including, but not limited to, the following: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, including our proposal to acquire K+S Aktiengesellschaft (K+S) and effective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; costs and availability of transportation and distribution of our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; risks and uncertainties related to operating and workforce changes made in response to our industry and the markets we serve; risks and uncertainties related to our international operations and assets; failure to prevent or respond to a major safety incident; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; catastrophic events or malicious acts, including terrorism; changes in currency and exchange rates; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; our prospects to reinvest capital in strategic opportunities and acquisitions, including our proposal to acquire K+S; our ownership of noncontrolling equity interests in other companies; the impact of further technological innovation; increases in the price or reduced availability of the raw materials that we use; security risks related to our information technology systems; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; timing and impact of capital expenditures; rates of return on, and the risks associated with, our investments and capital expenditures; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; certain complications that may arise in our mining process, including water inflows; our ability to attract, retain, develop and engage skilled employees; risks related to reputational loss; earnings; and the decisions of taxing authorities, which could affect our effective tax rates. These risks and uncertainties are discussed in more detail under the headings Risk Factors and Management s Discussion and Analysis of Results and Operations and Financial Condition in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2014 and in other documents and reports subsequently filed by us with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as of the date hereof and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements in this presentation, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. MARKET OVERVIEW

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Market Updates Global economic uncertainty, currency changes in major fertilizer consuming markets and lower crop prices have created market headwinds. Despite these economic issues we believe the fundamental drivers for fertilizer consumption growth remain in place, primarily the need to increase global crop production and sustain soil fertility. Robust growth in Chinese potash consumption over the past two years was driven by rising crop production requirements and strong affordability. The introduction of a 13 percent fertilizer valueadded tax (VAT) could result in a small increase in farmer costs but we do not believe it will significantly alter consumption trends. India s potash needs are exclusively met through imports. The depreciation of the Rupee and weak monsoon rains are near-term issues. Nevertheless there is opportunity to improve its nutrient application balance, in particular through the use of higher potash containing NPK compounds. In other Asian countries, potash demand is almost entirely supplied by imports. Weak currency values are a near-term headwind but we expect continued growth in potash consumption due to rising crop production requirements for oil palm, rice, fruits and vegetables. Strong potash consumption growth in Brazil has supported robust imports over the past decades. In 2015, soybean economics remain supportive for acreage growth but farmers have been slow to make input purchases due to currency changes and farm credit concerns. With an opportunity to increase crop acreage and yields we expect Brazil will remain a key long-term growth market for imported potash. North America is often viewed as a mature fertilizer market. However, nutrient removal rates have increased significantly with higher yielding crops. This has resulted in a large potash application deficit and declining soil test levels. We believe this application deficit provides an opportunity for potash consumption growth in the years ahead. MARKET OVERVIEW

4 Change in Economic Conditions Create Near-term Headwinds In 2015, several countries have experienced a series of downward revisions to their economic outlooks. This summer the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced global gross domestic product (GDP) estimates by 0.2 percent to 3.3 percent, slightly below 2014 levels. In Brazil and China, two important countries for fertilizer demand, GDP growth is forecast to be well below the previous three-year average. Many currencies have also depreciated significantly against the US dollar. This has made imports in local currency more expensive and resulted in buyer caution. At the same time, global crop prices have softened in response to record production over the past two growing seasons. In some cases, local crop prices have been supported by a devalued currency and continue to provide positive crop margins. However, the culmination of macro uncertainty, intense currency depreciation and lower crop prices have caused some near-term headwinds for global fertilizer markets. MARKET OVERVIEW

5 Steady Growth in Crop Production a Key Driver of Fertilizer Demand Looking beyond near-term economic uncertainties, the most basic driver of fertilizer consumption is growth in global crop production. Global consumption of grains and oilseeds has risen at an annualized rate of approximately 2.2 percent over the past 20 years. Higher crop yields and increased planted area have been required to keep pace with consumption growth. Fertilizer consumption has grown at an average annual rate of approximately 2 percent over the past 20 years, with the rate of potash consumption growing most quickly among the primary nutrients. Given the need to replenish soil nutrients removed by record crops in recent years, we believe fertilizer consumption will remain strong in the years ahead. MARKET OVERVIEW

6 Low Correlation to Currency Index Over the past 20 years, fertilizer demand and currency changes have shown a low correlation (in particular compared to the high correlation to global crop production). Although the variation is slightly different between fertilizer types, only once in the past 20 years did a depreciation in the currency index occur at the same time as a decline in global fertilizer consumption. While currency changes can create near-term demand uncertainty, we believe the impact on underlying consumption is more limited. MARKET OVERVIEW

7 Fertilizer Remains Affordable Despite Lower Crop Prices The graph above illustrates the historical relationship between crop and fertilizer prices. The decline in crop prices over the past year has been a contributing factor to the decline in fertilizer values. Although farmers face some uncertainty, we believe crop prices continue to offer an economic incentive to improve their yields. We anticipate there will be a strong need to replenish the nutrients removed when the crop is harvested. MARKET OVERVIEW

8 MARKET OVERVIEW

9 Potash Has The Most Diversity Among Regions Fertilizer is needed everywhere crops are grown and most of the growth in consumption has occurred in developing countries in Asia and Latin America. Together with North America, these major fertilizer-consuming regions account for more than 80 percent of global fertilizer consumption. Potash consumption is distributed among a number of major regions while nitrogen and phosphate use is more heavily concentrated in China and India. Demand for potash has grown by more than 20 million tonnes over the past two decades, with Asia and Latin America seeing the largest increase in shipments. We anticipate potash demand will continue to grow at an annual rate between percent over the medium-term. MARKET OVERVIEW

10 Opportunity to Improve Application Balance Balanced fertilization is critical for improving crop yields, as the plant nutrients interact to provide benefits beyond those achieved from a single nutrient. In China and India, average potash application rates on key crops such as rice, corn and wheat have lagged scientifically recommended levels. This nutrient imbalance, which limits yield potential, provides a significant opportunity for growth in potash consumption. As demand for food grows and the agriculture sector modernizes, it is expected that farmers in these regions will be motivated to improve the nutrient balance on their key crops to increase yields. MARKET OVERVIEW

11 Imports Required to Meet Rising Potash Demand China imports about 55 percent of its potash requirements, with seaborne imports accounting for more than 80 percent of that total. China significantly increased its domestic production in the last two years through the ramp-up of domestic capacity and continued operations during normal winter maintenance time. However, additional capacity growth could be limited by the amount of space on the salt lakes in Qinghai and the quality of known reserves. Over the past two decades, China has expanded its nitrogen and phosphate capacity. It is self-sufficient in both nutrients, and in recent years became a significant net exporter of both. We believe it has the domestic capability in both nutrients to meet growth in demand, but rising costs for inputs and transportation could constrain export growth in the future. MARKET OVERVIEW

12 Rebound in Potash Consumption With Favorable Crop-to-Potash Price Ratios In recent year prices for major field crops such as corn have increased substantially as the government incentivized domestic production to meet rising demand. With their own corn production and stocks increasing, China has lowered the domestic corn price by 10 percent. However this price remains well above global levels as the government noted they will maintain a goal of protecting farmer s income. A favorable relationship between crop and potash prices is one factor that pushed estimated potash consumption up by more than 2 million tonnes KCl in The recent introduction of a value-added tax (VAT) on fertilizer sales could increase fertilizer costs for farmers, though we believe this increase will remain a small percentage of total expenditures. We expect strong farmer affordability and agronomic need will continue to have a positive impact on potash consumption in MARKET OVERVIEW

13 China s Rising Food Production Needs Drive Long-Term Growth China is the largest consumer of potash fertilizer, accounting for approximately 20 percent of global use. Its domestic production capability has grown but China continues to rely heavily on imports to meet its requirements shipments to the Chinese market are expected to remain at historically high levels. In the medium term, we believe annual consumption growth will continue to be strong and align with the long-term trend line. MARKET OVERVIEW

14 Potash Consumption Supplied Through Imports Fertilizer consumption has increased significantly in India over the past two decades. Potash consumption, which has grown by approximately 18 percent in the past 10 years, is supplied entirely by imports. Nitrogen consumption has grown by more than 40 percent since 2005 due to the heavy subsidization of this nutrient. India is one of the world s largest urea importers but still produces around three-quarters of its domestic urea requirements. India s domestic phosphate demand is largely met by imports of finished and intermediate phosphate products. MARKET OVERVIEW

15 DAP and Potash Demand Has Started to Recover India s fertilizer sector is transitioning due to a number of changes to its fertilizer subsidy system, primarily the decontrol of prices for potash and phosphate fertilizer. Since deregulation, farmers are getting more accustomed to the changes in phosphate and potash pricing and demand is recovering. Sales during the first half of 2015 were especially strong for potash and phosphate following a strong start to the monsoon. The monsoon slowed at times during the third quarter and the Indian Rupee depreciation could create some challenges for fourth quarter demand. MARKET OVERVIEW

16 Opportunity to Improve Nutrient Application Balance Indian potash consumption has started to recover during the past two years, with growth in direct application and NPK compound usage. Compared to the previous year, potash demand in 2014 for direct application increased 28 percent and 18 percent for NPK production. So far in 2015, potash demand has remained stable for direct application but has increased 27 percent for NPK production. We believe the need to return to a better balanced N:K ratio and potential for more stable retail potash prices will support continued growth in the years ahead. MARKET OVERVIEW

17 Potash and Phosphate Consumption Met Primarily by Imports Robust growth in agricultural production requires greater fertilizer consumption. Potash consumption has grown by more than 55 percent in the last 10 years in Other Asia, a region that relies almost entirely on imports. Phosphate consumption has grown by nearly 25 percent during the same time, however, the region increasingly relies on imports as the opportunity to expand domestic mining is limited. Nitrogen consumption has grown by more than 40 percent over the past 10 years, but unlike phosphate, domestic capacity is being expanded to take advantage of regional supply advantages and improving production economics. MARKET OVERVIEW

18 Rice and Oil Palm Are the Major Drivers of Potash Demand Oil palm accounts for the largest use of potash in Other Asia, representing 49 percent of total potash consumption. Rice, the second-largest consumer, accounts for 20 percent of potash consumption but approximately 35 percent of total fertilizer consumption in the region. Growth in rice and oil palm production is expected to remain positive, driven by population and regional economic growth. Given the potash-intensive nature of many crops grown in Other Asia, its potash use has increased at a relatively steady pace over the past decade. Indonesia and Malaysia account for more than 55 percent of the regions total imports. MARKET OVERVIEW

19 Steady Demand Growth Driven By Agricultural Needs Potash consumption growth in Other Asia has historically been very consistent as a result of the development of agricultural production and the region s economic reliance on trade. In 2014, potash shipments to Other Asia reached a record 9.5 million tonnes, representing a 6 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) since Headwinds connected to currency and crop economics have lowered expectations for 2015 but long-term growth is expected due to rising crop production requirements. MARKET OVERVIEW

20 Potash Consumption Met Primarily by Imports Fertilizer consumption has increased tremendously in Brazil during the past two decades. Potash consumption, which has grown by almost 60 percent in 10 years, has mainly been supplied by the import market. Nitrogen consumption has followed this trend, nearly doubling since 2005 while domestic supply has remained flat. Brazil has expanded its phosphate production somewhat, but still relies heavily on imports to meet a consumption increase of more than 60 percent since MARKET OVERVIEW

21 Four Major Potash Importing Companies Canada was the largest potash supplier to Brazil during 2014 followed by producers in Belarus and Russia. The top three suppliers account for more than 70 percent of total imports. The top four potash importing companies in Brazil account for approximately 69 percent of potash imports. These companies have grown through acquisitions and organic expansion initiatives. MARKET OVERVIEW

22 Expect Continued Growth in Brazil In recent years, Brazil s potash consumption has grown at a very robust pace, driven by expanding crop acreage and strong farmer returns. Although soybean economics support continued acreage expansion, a depreciating Real and farm credit delays have resulted in a cautious Brazilian fertilizer market. While 2015 is not likely to be a growth year in Brazil, shipments remain historically strong and we anticipate that Brazil s potash usage will continue to grow at rates higher than the global average over the next five years. MARKET OVERVIEW

23 Potash Consumption Met Primarily by Domestic Producers Fertilizer consumption has been fairly stable in North America for more than two decades. Nitrogen fertilizer is supplied by a combination of domestic and offshore sources, although domestic supply is expected to increase over the next five years. Domestic suppliers provide a large percentage of the phosphate fertilizer consumed, however imports have accounted for a greater share in recent years. Potash imports have increased in 2015 but domestic suppliers continue to account for the majority of consumption. MARKET OVERVIEW

24 Demand Growth Opportunity in North America North American potash demand is met by domestic producers and offshore imports primarily supplied from Russia, Israel, Chile and Belarus. The majority of potash fertilizer consumed in North America is red-granular grade product. North American demand has been relatively flat but there is an opportunity for demand growth which is supported by the need to keep pace with higher nutrient removal rates. North American potash producers are increasing capacity, including the addition of granulation capability, to meet this demand. MARKET OVERVIEW

25 Large Application Deficit Due to Rising Crop Removal Potash application rates in North America have been relatively stable over the past 30 years. Meanwhile crop removal rates have increased significantly in line with higher-yielding crop varieties. The graph above illustrates the concerning application deficit trend in the US. Since 2010, estimated potash removal in the US has exceeded application by more than 7 million short tons KCl per year. Closing this gap would require farmers to nearly double application rates compared to current levels. MARKET OVERVIEW

26 Large Regional Application Deficits Relatively large potash application deficits were found in most major crop-producing regions of the US. We believe this application deficit is not sustainable and if not addressed could jeopardize the soil s long-term productivity. We expect the initial shift in application rates will occur in the Midwest, Southeast and Delta states, which have soils likely to have the greatest response to additional potash. Over time, we expect changes will also be required in central and western states as the large application deficit will ultimately draw down soil test levels. MARKET OVERVIEW

27 MARKET OVERVIEW

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