Revision of the system of national accounts

Transcription

1 Revision of the system of national accounts 21 st Statistical Days, Radenci, 2011 Janja Kalin Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia, National Accounts Sector

2 Summary Important methodological work in recent years in the field of national accounts: revision of the System of national accounts. System of national accounts (SNA): internationally agreed standard of recommendations for the measurement of economic activity. SNA 1993 SNA Revision at international level was followed by the revision at European level: ESA 1995 ESA In the paper, changes and expected effects of revision on national accounts aggregates are presented. 2

3 Up-to date development and revisions of SNA In 50-year history of SNA 5 revisions, 3 major with published new methodological handbooks: 1953: establishment of the system SNA 1953 handbook 1960 and 1964: two minor revisions 1968 major revision SNA 1968 handbook 1993 major revision SNA 1993 handbook 2008 major revision SNA 2008 handbook 3

4 Goals: SNA 2008 revision Update of the system to better meet users needs (important development and changes in economic environment, advance in the field of research and measurement of economic categories) Not introducing fundamental and extensive changes (smooth transition from previous system) Harmonization with related handbooks is important (balance of payments, government financial statistics, monetary and financial statistics) Start of revision in 2003, under auspice of Eurostat, IMF, OECD, UN, World bank, final version of SNA 2008 issued end of 2009 by these institutions. 4

5 Changes with SNA 2008 revision Maintains basic SNA 1993 theoretical framework, introduces treatment of new economic phenomena, expands treatment of phenomena that became important, gives more detailed recommendations for particular issues. Changes generally smaller than with introduction of SNA In revision process 44 proposals for changes recommendations. Changes align into 5 major groups: 1. Assets 2. Financial sector 3. Globalization and related issues 4. General government and public sector 5. Informal sector 44 revision 5

6 Main SNA 2008 changes - new features (1) 1. Assets treatment of intangible produced assets supplemented, renamed in intellectual property products; treatment of databases and originals and copies changed; expenditures for R&D treated as capital formation and assets; changes by treatment of natural resources and licenses and leases; expenditures for weapon systems treated as capital formation and assets; concept of capital services introduced. 2. Financial sector more comprehensive overview of financial services; changes in treatment of financial derivatives and non-performing loans; changed measurement of non-life insurance to give less volatile results; refined method of measurement of FISIM; new guidelines for recording pension obligations. 6

7 Main SNA 2008 changes - new features (2) 3. Globalization and related issues additional elaboration of categories connected with economic globalization; clearly defined guidelines for the treatment of companies and units operating in more countries; expanded treatment of remittances from the movements of persons abroad; recording according to principle of change in ownership of goods has become universal: changed recording of goods for processing and merchanting. 4. General government and public sector additionally defined and clarified numerous principles due to changes of operations and in accounting standards; clarified delineation of gen. government and public sector from other sectors; clearly defined various categories (super dividends, capital injections, private-public partnerships, restructuring agencies, credit guaranties, transactions between government and public companies and with securities etc, which can affect public debt). 7

8 Main SNA 2008 changes - new features (3) 5. Informal sector new chapter dedicated to measurement of informal sector and nonobserved economy: informal sector: informal activities within household sector non-observed economy (NOE): not captured by formal statistical measurement. 8

9 Some largest changes with SNA 2008 (1) Capitalization of research and development (R&D) Expenditures for R&D until now treated as intermediate consumption. They improve productivity through longer period SNA 2008 treats them as gross fixed capital formation and assets. New treatment has influence on rise of GDP, in three ways. Capitalization of military expenditures Military expenditures until now included in capital formation and assets only if could be used also for civil production. With SNA 2008 included all expenditures that meets general definition of asset (use in production process for more than one year). New treatment has influence on rise of GDP in the value of additionally calculated consumption of fixed capital. 9

10 Some largest changes with SNA 2008 (2) Goods sent for processing abroad Until now registered gross: import/export of goods for processing, after processing export/import of goods with processing fee. With SNA 2008 net treatment: registration of only import/export of processing fee (rule of change of ownership). New treatment consistent with financial transactions, focus on economic transactions, not on physical movements of goods. Disadvantages for certain analysis (environmental, input-output). No effects on GDP, but on decrease of imports/exports flows. Registration of pension obligations With SNA 2008 all pensions schemes included, also unfunded schemes. Still flexibility by registration of government schemes in core accounts (social security schemes not included). Additional table with all pension obligations introduced comparative analysis of pension obligations between countries will be possible. Additional changes according to actuary rules can have low impact on GDP. 10

11 Revision of European system of accounts (ESA) ESA: basic framework and legal document for the compilation of national accounts in EU-member states. Revision from ESA 1995 to ESA 2010 started immediately after agreed SNA Consistency of concepts in ESA 2010 with SNA ESA oriented on circumstances and data needs in EU, therefore some differences. ESA more pragmatic and supplements general SNA concepts with examples, to ensure unified compilation in all EU-members. 11

12 Differences between ESA 2010 and SNA 2008 ESA has more detailed rules for delimitation between market, non-market and production for own final use to ensure unified approach. ESA does not include all kinds of production of goods for own final use (only dwellings and agriculture), because not significant for EU. ESA refers directly to specific arrangements in EU (Intrastat, contributions for EU) and EU classifications (NACE Rev.2, CPA 2008). ESA contains additional classification of foreign transactions for residents and non-residents of EU. ESA has different classification of sub-sectors within financial corporations sector due to the needs of European central bank. In ESA included concept of capitalization of R&D. In core accounts introduced when achieved high level of reliability of data and comparability between member states. Until then shown in additional satellite tables. 12

13 Procedure for introduction of ESA 2010 in national accounts of EU member states ESA 2010 directive submitted by EU Commission into legal procedure to EU Council and Parliament in December 2010; 3 parts: legal text, methodological handbook (Annex A), data transmission programme (Annex B) Adoption of directive envisaged for Introduction of new methodology and data transmission programme into national accounts of member states in

14 Effect of introduction of ESA 2010 on national accounts aggregates Out of 44 SNA revision recommendations: 10 effect on GDP/GNI (+ 2 additional changes in EU) 10 methodological changes without effect on GDP/GNI 7 methodological changes, but already implemented in EU 17 without methodological changes, additional explanations. Weighted effect for EU: app. 2% increase of GDP/GNI 80 % of effect due to capitalization of R&D 10 % of effect due to capitalization of military expenditures. Estimates for Slovenia lower: app. 1,5 % increase in GDP/GNI. 14

15 Effect of introduction of ESA 2010 on national accounts aggregates open points Allocation of FISIM: when agreement on changes average effect in EU on 0,3 0,5 % decrease in GDP/GNI. Uncertainty of time of inclusion of capitalization of R&D into core accounts: in the beginning possible lower increase of GDP/GNI then total estimated. Thank you for your attention! Janja Kalin Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia janja.kalin@gov.si 15