Brazil Economic Outlook

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1 Economic Outlook London Alexandre Tombini Governor October

2 Main topics Inflation Growth UMP Exit 2

3 Inflation adversely affected by supply shocks YoY % Jan 11 Mar 11 May 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Nov 11 Jan 12 Mar 12 May 12 Jul 12 Sep 12 Nov 12 Jan 13 Mar 13 May 13 Jul st supply shock (commodities) 2 nd supply shock (fresh food) 0 CPI Food and Beverages CPI ex-food and Beverages Source: IBGE 3

4 Monetary policy actions % Jan 06 Jul 06 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 % Nov 12 Jul 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Jul 13 Apr 13 BCB acted in early 2013 to mitigate second order effects of supply shocks. After tapering signaling, BCB mitigate the ER pass-through risk 20 Communication Policy rate Policy rate Swap reference rate day term Source: BCB/BM&F 4

5 Inflation is receding YoY % Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13 Sep 13 Oct 13 Nov 13 Dec Jun Aug Dec CPI Expected CPI (Focus) Source: IBGE / BCB (Focus) 5

6 Dec 10 Feb 11 Apr 11 Jun 11 Aug 11 Oct 11 Dec 11 Feb 12 Apr 12 Jun 12 Aug 12 Oct 12 Dec 12 Feb 13 Apr 13 Jun 13 Aug 13 Oct 13 Dec 13 YoY % Other CPIs also decelerating IPC-M Sep % IPC-C1 Aug % IPC-Fipe Sep % 4.0 IPC-10, IPC-M and IPC-Br IPC-C1 IPC-Fipe Chained series of IPC-10, IPC-M and IPC-Br; Chained series of IPC-Fipe weekly data Source: FGV / Fipe 6

7 Inflation within target bands YoY % Dec 99 Dec 00 Dec 01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec Ten consecutive years of inflation in target zone in CPI Inflation Report (Sep 13) Source: IBGE / BCB 7

8 Growth dynamics in 2013 China Turkey Japan South Korea Chile Canada Australia UK Colombia US Poland Mexico Germany France Euro Area Russia Spain Italy Real GDP QoQ Growth in 1Q Colombia Turkey China South Korea Japan Germany UK US Australia France Chile Canada Poland Euro Area Spain -0.1 Russia -0.3 Italy -0.3 Mexico -0.7 Real GDP QoQ Growth in 2Q * qoq sa Source: Bloomberg 8

9 Economic growth is expected to gather pace China 7.8 China 7.7 India 5.6 India 6.3 World 3.1 South Korea* 3.9 Australia* 3.0 World 3.8 Mexico 2.9 Australia* 3.3 South Korea* 2.8 Russia Mexico 3.2 Russia Japan 2.0 US 2.7 Canada 1.7 Canada 2.2 US 1.7 UK 1.5 UK 0.9 Germany 1.3 Germany 0.3 Japan 1.2 France -0.2 Euro Area 0.9 Euro Area -0.6 France 0.8 Spain -1.6 Italy 0.7 Italy -1.8 Spain 0.0 * April Source: IMF (WEO forecasts, April and July 2013) 9

10 Stronger investment QoQ S.A (%) 5.0 Gross Fixed Capital Formation Q 12 2Q 12 3Q 12 4Q 12 1Q 13 2Q 13 Source: IBGE 10

11 Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 13 Feb 12 May 12 Aug 12 Nov 12 Feb 13 May 13 Aug 13 MoM % sa YoY % Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Feb 08 Aug 08 Feb 09 Aug 09 Feb 10 Aug 10 Feb 11 Aug 11 Feb 12 Aug 12 Feb 13 Aug = 100 YoY % Support for domestic demand % (YoY) Retail Sales 5.8% (YoY) Credit Outstanding Retail Sales Retail Sales (including automobiles and construction materials) Total Households (nonearmarked credit) Unemployment Rate 7 6 Employment and Labor Income Employment Real Income Real Payroll Source: BCB/IBGE 11

12 million tons Record grain harvest expected in production of grains 2013/2012 = 15.7% * Estimated in August 2013 Source: IBGE 12

13 Reforms to boost growth Tax reforms to simplify the tax system and reduce costs Payroll tax cuts Tax incentives for infrastructure and R&D investment bonds Measures to increase competitiveness and investments Building a skilled labor force (Science without Frontiers and Pronatec Programs) Concessions program revamped Highways, railroads, ports and airports Oil & gas 13

14 has a sound financial system Regulatory Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets ( Provisions NPL) / Capital Liquid Assets to Short Term Liabilities Germany Turkey Mexico United Kingdom Canada United States France Korea Japan India Russia Italy Australia Spain Mexico Korea, Republic of Turkey Canada Russian India United States Australia United Kingdom Japan Spain Italy Germany Korea, Russian Italy United States Turkey Japan Canada Mexico Australia United Kingdom India Source: IMF /FSI (latest available data) 14

15 Banks have a low share of external funding 100% 4.3 Origin of Bank Funding % 60% 40% % 0% Public-owned Private-owned Foreign-controlled Total Domestic External Jul 13 Source: BCB 15

16 US$ billion Net External Creditor * US$ billion * International Reserves Net External Creditor as of Oct 1 st *Aug 2013 Source: BCB 16

17 External Debt of EMEs External Debt / GDP Short Term External Debt / Total Turkey Turkey Chile Indonesia India Peru Mexico Mexico Chile Indonesia Colombia Colombia Peru India *IIF forecast * *IIF forecast * Source: Datastream / IIF * data includes intercompany debt transactions and domestic debt in hands of foreign investors 17

18 Low nonresident holdings of Gov. debt 2012 (% of Total Debt) Australia France Germany Italy Mexico US UK Turkey Spain Canada Russian South Korea Japan India Source: IMF (Fiscal Monitor April 2013) 18

19 is leading recipient of FDI USA USA USA China China China Belgium 85.7 Belgium Hong Kong 72.5 Hong Kong 82.7 Hong Kong UK UK 62.5 Singapore 48.6 Australia 65.8 France Singapore 64.0 Singapore 54.4 Germany 46.9 Russian 52.9 Australia 48.5 Russian 43.3 UK 51.1 Canada 47.2 Ireland 42.8 Canada 41.4 Russian 44.1 Spain 40.8 France 40.9 Ireland 39.6 Australia 35.2 Germany 40.4 India 27.3 Switzerland 32.5 Italy 34.3 Chile 26.4 France 30.6 India 31.6 Luxembourg 22.6 Saudi Arabia 29.2 Spain 29.5 Belgium Source: UNCTAD 19

20 CAD comfortably financed by FDI FDI / CAD (in %, 2012) CAD (12M Acc., %GDP)* Chile Mexico -1.3 Peru Colombia Indonesia Colombia -3.5 Mexico Peru -3.5 Indonesia 82.5 Chile -4.0 India 27.9 India -5.1 Turkey Turkey * June Source: UNCTAD 20

21 Capital flows accum. 12 months (US$ billion) Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12 Nov 12 Dec 12 Jan 13 Feb 13 Mar 13 Apr 13 May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug Flows increased even after tapering talk (May ) Equities Fixed Income Source: BCB 21

22 Timely Central Bank action to mitigate risks FX interest rate swaps and FX repo program (launched on Aug 22) Goal: provide hedge to economic agents, liquidity to domestic FX market and reduce excessive market volatility Measures (weekly auctions during 2013): FX interest rate swap auctions: USD2 billion FX Repo: USD1 billion USD100 billion (equivalent) until the end of 2013, considering issues before the program announcement The program succeeded in taming ER volatility and providing FX hedge and liquidity 22

23 Efforts to reduce risks are successful % Change in 1M ATM Implied Volatility* Russian Ruble n Rand Turkish Lira Polish Zloty Mexican Peso Czech Koruna Indian Rupee ian Real Australian Dollar Indonesian Rupiah * From Aug 22 through Oct BRL leads appreciation since the FX program* Real New Zealand Dollar Australian Dollar Sterling pound Indian Rupee n Rand Russian Ruble Poland Zloty Swiss Franc Swedish Krona Chilean Peso Canadian Dollar Euro Norwegian Krone Colombian peso Yen Turkish Lira Mexican Peso Bloomberg USD Index 1/ Indonesian Rupiah CDS USD SR 5Y Corp - % Change since BCB's Announcement of Regular FX Intervention in 2013* Italy Portugal Ireland Colombia Spain Peru France Japan Belgium Mexico Turkey United Kingdom Chile Russia Germany China Source: BCB 1/ The Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Index tracks the performance of a basket of ten leading global currencies versus the U.S. Dollar (JPY, MXN, AUD, GBP, CAD, SGD, CHF, CNH, KRW and EUR). 23

24 Economic Outlook London Alexandre Tombini Governor October

25 Glossary BCB BM&F CAD EME FDI FGV Focus IBGE IMF UMP UNCTAD Central Bank of ian Exchange Company Current Account Deficit Emerging countries Foreign Direct Investment Getúlio Vargas Foundation ian Market Survey sponsored by BCB ian Institute of Geography and Statistics International Monetary Fund Unconventional Monetary Policy United Nations Conference on Trade and Development 25

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