Brazil: Economic Outlook and Perspectives. Henrique de Campos Meirelles

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1 Brazil: Economic Outlook and Perspectives Henrique de Campos Meirelles St. Gallen University September 2010

2 Brazil in % of total sovereign debt denominated in dollars IMF debtor country High public debt to GDP ratio: 60.6% Policy rate at 25% Rising inflation High country risk premiums and sovereign debt rated as speculative grade Unemployment rate at 14% Minimum wage at US$

3 Changes in Economic Policy 2003: Monetary and fiscal policy stance Austere monetary policy Strong fiscal adjustment Quick disinflation 03: 30% (annual rate) Jul 03: 0% Decrease in the public debt As a result: decrease in country risk premiums 3

4 Changes in Economic Policy 2003: Costs 6% drop in domestic demand in the first semester 15% of industrial production was redirected to exports Trade surplus Current account reversal: from -6% to +2% of GDP 4

5 % of GDP Public Sector Net Debt market consensus Aug Sources: Central Bank of Brazil 5

6 USD billion Floating Exchange Rate Regime and Build Up of International Reserves International reserves allow for a safe fluctuation of the exchange rate Aug Sep 6th Source: Central Bank of Brazil 6

7 USD billion Net External Debt and Risk 200 B+ S&P: BBB Q BB- BB- Fitch: BBB- ( ) Moody s: Baa3 ( ) Q BB 0 BB T 02 3T 02 1T 03 3T 03 1T 04 3T 04 1T 05 3T 05 1T 06 3T 06 1T 07 3T 07 1T 08 3T 08 BBB- 1T 09 3T 09 1T 10 Sources: Central Bank of Brazil and S&P 7

8 Macroeconomic Responsibility Virtuous Circle: responsible policies macroeconomic stability lower risk premiums more credibility stronger growth greater efficiency increased credibility lower interest rates higher growth rate expectations anchored lower interest on public debt decline in public debt to GDP ratio 8

9 Macroeconomic Policy Framework Macroeconomic fundamentals of inflation targeting, fiscal responsibility, exchange rate flexibility, combined with Adequate prudential policy and solid bank supervision, resulted in: capacity to absorb internal and external shocks macroeconomic and financial stability sustainable growth investment growth credit and capital market development 9

10 1995 = 100 basis points Investments x Country Risk country risk - Brasil t-2 (right) investments GFCF (left) 2Q Q 00 1Q 01 1Q 02 1Q 03 1Q 04 1Q 05 1Q 06 1Q 07 1Q 08 1Q 09 3Q 10 Sources: IBGE and JPMorgan 10

11 R$ billion % of GDP Credit Outstanding Balances 1,600 1,400 consistent growth throughout the period ,200 1, Jul 10 Source: Central Bank of Brazil 11

12 R$ billion Capital market primary issues * Stocks Commercial papers Others Source: CVM (Brazilian Securities Comission) * 12 months acc. to July 12

13 USD billion Net Foreign Direct Investment market consensus Source: Central Bank of Brazil (market consensus) 13

14 Brazilian External Liabilities as a percentage of the gross external liabilities Others 26.4% FDI 32.8% Others 13.3% FDI 36.8% Fixed income 30.9% Stocks (domestic and foreign) 9.9% Fixed income 17.4% Stocks (domestic and foreign) 32.5% Source: Central Bank of Brazil 14

15 USD billion Exports Source: Central Bank of Brazil (market consensus) 15

16 Exports diversification of trade partners % USA Europe Latin America Asia other Source: Central Bank of Brazil 16

17 % change in 12 months 03 = 100 Price Stability and Real Payroll Growth 18 stability generates increasing well-being IPCA real payroll Jul 10 Source: Central Bank of Brazil 17

18 millions of people Social Mobility A/B C D E % % * Source: Finance Ministry; * estimated 18

19 thousands Formal Job Creation million jobs created since 2003 from uary to July Source: MTE/CAGED 19

20 Unemployment in Brazil seasonally adjusted % Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb 09 Jul 10 Source: IBGE 20

21 Unemployment Rate Africa do Sul Espanha Lituânia Croácia Irlanda Colômbia Grécia Polônia Turquia Hungria Índia Portugal Zona do Euro França Estados Unidos Bélgica Venezuela Itália Chile Suécia Canadá Argentina Reino Unido Alemanha Brasil relatively dynamic labor market Source: Bloomberg 21

22 2009 (BRL 1000) GDP per capita Growth = 17.5% real growth forecast Source: Central Bank of Brazil 22

23 Income Inequality Reduction Gini Index Source: IBGE/PNAD 23

24 Middle Class Growth and Poverty Reduction From 2003 to million people have entered the middle class 20.5 million have crossed the poverty line upwards forecast for the current trend 36.0 million more will enter the middle class 14.5 million more will come out of poverty Family Grant Program (Bolsa Família): reduction of people in extreme poverty from 12% to the 4% level Source: FGV-CPS 24

25 % of population Poverty Source: CPS/FGV 25

26 Homes with computers and access to the internet personal computer internet access % Source: IBGE/PNAD 26

27 Financial Stability: Basel Index 20 capitalization above international standards 18 % Brazil (11%) Basel I (8%) (jun) Jun Source: Central Bank of Brazil 27

28 % of GDP Fiscal Deficit for G-20 Countries G-20 Advanced (in G-20) Emerging (in G-20) Brazil Source: IMF (Cross country Fiscal Monitor May, 2010) 28

29 GDP real growth % Performance Before and After the Crisis compared to other emerging markets (**) Brazil (*) EME ex. Brazil, India and China -2.2 (*) Sources: FMI (WEO April 2010) and Central Bank of Brazil 29

30 Investment prospects - industry BRL billion Growth % Oil and Gas Mining Steel Petrochemical Automobile Electric/Electronics Pulp and Paper Total Source: BNDES 30

31 Investment prospects - infrastructure BRL billion Growth % Electricity Telecommunication Sanitation Railways Highways Ports Total Source: BNDES 31

32 Brazil* USA Russia European Union India China Congo D. R. Australia Canada Argentina Sudan Angola Indonesia Nigeria Colombia millions of hectares Availability of Arable Land current cultivated area non-cultivated area Source: FAO *rain forest not considered 32

33 Agenda for the Future Level of Domestic Saving Quality of Public Expenditures Investment Rate and Infra-Structure Education Review and Simplification of the Tax System Legal Environment more favorable to Business Incentive to Long Term Investment 33

34 GDP Growth annual real growth rate 7 7.3% % ( ) % ( ) 3.3% ( ) % Sources: IBGE and Central Bank of Brazil 34

35 Henrique de Campos Meirelles September 2010

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