Beef and Cattle --- Market Situation and Outlook. AAEA Extension Livestock Outlook Session, July 30, 2007

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1 Beef and Cattle --- Market Situation and Outlook AAEA Extension Livestock Outlook Session, July 3, James Robb Director LMIC 655 Parfet Street Suite E31 Lakewood, CO $ Per Cwt. 83 KANSAS FEEDLOT CLOSEOUTS Feeding Costs per Cwt, Steers / Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1

2 BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUE Choice 6-9 Lbs. Carcass, Weekly $ Per Cwt JAN APR JUL OCT $ Per Cwt. 1.6 STEER HIDE AND OFFAL VALUE Live Animal Basis, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT 2

3 SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES 5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly $ Per Cwt JAN APR JUL OCT $ Per Head 25 LIVE TO CUTOUT BEEF PRICE SPREAD Monthly JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV 3

4 MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES 5-6 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly $ Per Cwt JAN APR JUL OCT Bil. Pounds 7. COMMERCIAL BEEF PRODUCTION Quarterly / JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC 28 4

5 Bil. Pounds 3. U S BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual Pounds 8 U S BEEF CONSUMPTION Per Capita, Retail Weight, Annual

6 ANNUAL AVERAGE CATTLE PRICES $ Per Cwt lb Steer Calves 7-8lb Feeder Steers Fed Steers 6

7 $ Per Cow 15 COW-CALF RETURNS AND CATTLE INVENTORY U.S., Annual Mil. Head Cow-Calf Returns Cattle Inventory Jan 1 7 Mil. Head HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS July 1, U.S %

8 CHANGE IN BEEF COW NUMBERS JANUARY 1, 1998 TO JANUARY 1, Canada, 1 Head Prince Ed. Isl. Nova Scotia -2-3 Canada to 391 (2) -2 to 13 (4) -52 to -2 (3) CHANGE IN BEEF COW NUMBERS JANUARY 1, TO JANUARY 1, Canada, 1 Head Prince Ed. Isl. Nova Scotia 1 Canada to.9 (2) -29 to.1 (4) to -29 (4) 8

9 U S BEEF IMPORTS FROM CANADA Carcass Weight, Monthly Mil. Pounds JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 1 MT U.S. EXPORTS OF BEEF MUSCLE CUTS Weekly Jan-3 Jul-3 Jan-4 Jul-4 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Jan-7 Jul-7 Canada Japan Mexico Korean Rep. 9

10 U S BEEF INDUSTRY NET EXPORT VALUES Annual Bil. $ Live Cattle Beef & Veal Hides & Skins Tallow, Grease & Var Meat Total Thou. Head TOTAL COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly 7 JAN APR JUL OCT 1

11 Pounds LIVE WEIGHT -- STEER AND HEIFER Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle Area, Weekly 114 JAN APR JUL OCT Mil. Pounds 12 MAJOR U S BEEF IMPORT SOURCES Carcass Weight, Annual /4 25 Australia New Zealand Canada Argentina 11

12 Index Value 12 RETAIL CHOICE BEEF DEMAND INDEX Annual, Using CPI 198=

13 CHOICE MINUS SELECT BEEF PRICES Carcass Cutout Value 6-9 Lbs., Weekly $ Per Cwt JAN APR JUL OCT CUTOUT VALUE Monthly $/Cwt Jul-6 Sep-6 Nov-6 Jan-7 Mar-7 May-7 Prime Branded Choice Select Ungraded 13

14 PRIMAL LOIN VALUE Monthly $/Cwt 37 Prime 32 Branded Jul-6 Sep-6 Nov-6 Jan-7 Mar-7 May-7 Choice Select Ungraded $/Cwt 12 CHUCK VALUE COMPARISON Monthly 115 Prime Branded 1 Choice 95 9 Jan-6 Mar-6 May-6 Jul-6 Sep-6 Nov-6 Jan-7 Mar-7 May-7 Jul-7 Select 14

15 $/Cwt LOIN VALUE COMPARISON Monthly Jan-6 Mar-6 May-6 Jul-6 Sep-6 Nov-6 Jan-7 Mar-7 May-7 Jul-7 Prime Branded Choice Select $ Per Cwt WHOLESALE BEEF RIB ROLL PRICES 2 In.-Lip On, Weekly 42 JAN APR JUL OCT 15

16 $ Per Cwt WHOLESALE BEEF CHUCK PRICES Boneless 2 Piece, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT $ Per Cwt JAN WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICES Fresh, 9% Lean, Weekly APR JUL OCT 16

17 MARKET ISSUES Ethanol Mandatory COOL Swift Assets Farm Bill and Livestock What to Else Monitor Chicken! 17

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