Part Three Major Opportunities Exist for U.S. and Canadian Beef Producers For (1) Those Who Start Paying Much Closer Attention to What Consumers are

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1 Part Three Major Opportunities Exist for U.S. and Canadian Beef Producers For (1) Those Who Start Paying Much Closer Attention to What Consumers are Spending Their Stretched Protein Dollars on and Why and (2) For Those Beef Producers Who are Prepared and Willing to Make Major Changes in Beef Production Practices and in Significantly Reducing Beef Production Costs in the Years Ahead. 1

2 The American and Canadian Beef Industries Today and For Many Years Have Had a One-size Fits All and a One-trick Pony Beef Production Business Model This business model is clearly broken. The U.S. and Canadian beef quality and yield grading systems are designed to produce what consumers are purchasing and consuming less and less of, i.e. the very expensive corn fed whole muscle beef products, such as steaks and roasts. At minimum, the U.S. and Canadian beef industries need a two-sizes fit all and a two-trick pony for (1) grass and forage based ground beef and (2) for corn and grain fed whole muscle beef production. 2

3 Major Opportunities for the U.S. and Canadian Beef Producers, Cattle Feeders and Beef Packers Over the Next 15 to 25 Years Produce significantly more grass and forage fed ground beef product in response to the increasing domestic demand for and the consumption of hamburger in North America. Reduce significantly the maintenance and input costs of meeting the increased domestic demand and consumption of ground beef in North America by becoming more cost and price competitive with chicken. Ground beef is a very high quality product and is also a very good source of protein. 3

4 Most U.S. and Canadian Beef Producers and Cattle Feeders Have Been and Remain Committed to Going Down Only One Super Interstate Highway The Broken One Size Fits All North American Business Model Full fed cattle only. One size fits all and a one trick pony. High input costs. Ground beef consumption and demand is going up. Middle meat (steaks) consumption and demand is going down. Total per capita beef consumption and domestic beef demand and market share are declining. 4

5 The Major Opportunities for the U.S. and Canadian Beef Industries, Producers, Cattle Feeders and Beef Packers over the Next 25 Years Move towards three super highways and a three sizes fit all business model in America and in Canada Forage Fed Steers and Heifers for the Growing Ground Beef Market 2 1 Full Fed Steers and Heifers for the Middle Meat (Steak) Declining Market Grass Fed Steers and Heifers for the Growing Ground Beef Market 3 5

6 Major Financial and Operational Objectives and Opportunities for the Three Super Highways for Beef Over the Next 25 Years and Beyond Corn Full-Fed Steers and Heifers In Feedlots Maximize the top line sales value with the emphasis on the higher priced middle meats Growing Forage- Fed Steers and Heifers in Feedlots Reduce the top line sales value and optimize the bottom line with the emphasis on lower input costs and the production of ground beef Growing Grass- Fed Steers and Heifers in Pastures Reduce the top line sales value and optimize the bottom line with the emphasis on lower input costs and the production of ground beef

7 Follow the money. Produce much more grass fed and forage-fed ground beef. Produce more of what the average American consumer can afford, wants and what they are spending their money on. Recommended shipping weight ranges for grass-fed and forage-fed beef and dairy steers and heifers for the very large and growing U.S. and North American ground beef market as shown below: Recommended Live Shipping Weight For Steers Heifers Forage-feds 1,050-1, ,000 Grass-feds 900-1,

8 For those U.S. and Canadian beef producers who are now or want to soon produce (cost effectively) high quality and lean ground beef with the use of forage, my suggestion is for you to consider using the following forage ingredients in a feedlot growing program: Basic Ration Items Approximate Percentage of the Total Ration Sorghum silage 44 Triticale silage 25 Corn silage 20 Distillers grain 7 Protein 3 Liquid Supplement 1 TOTAL 100 8

9 Basically 100% of the edible portion of all forage-fed and grass-fed beef carcasses will be used to supply the growing consumer demand for lean and high quality ground beef in the years ahead. Add to the present U.S. and Canadian government and beef industry carcass grading systems forage-fed and grass-fed beef and dairy cattle for the obvious growing consumption and demand for ground beef. The competitive supply and demand marketplace will successfully establish a market price for forage-fed and grassfed produced beef for the large and growing ground beef market. 9

10 There are Relatively Large Numbers of Beef and Dairy Cattle Producers and Cattle Feeders and Very Small Numbers of Broiler (Chicken) Producers in the U.S. as of January, 2013 Major U.S. Beef, Dairy and Broiler Producer Categories Approximate Total Number of Operations in the U.S. 1. Beef cow-calf owners and operators 750, Dairy cow owners and operators 62, Feedlots that have 1,000 or more head of capacity Integrated broiler company producers 27 Source: USDA, Economic Research Service and independent and official broiler industry data. 10

11 The Average Size of the Beef Cow Operators in Brazil is Much Larger and the Number of Beef Cow Operators is Much Smaller in Canada and in the United States Brazil Canada United States Total number of beef cow owners Average number of beef cows per owner Approximate millions of total beef cows as of ,000 77, ,000 2,

12 The U.S. Beef Cow-calf Industry Consists of Large Numbers of Small Operators Number of Beef Cows Per Operator Percent of the Total U.S. Beef Cow Owners Those that have less than 10 beef cows 33* Those that have less than 20 beef cows 55* Those that have less than 50 beef cows 80* Those that have 50 or more beef cows 20 The average number of U.S. beef cows per owner is 40 head 100 *These are typically hobby and part-time beef cow-calf operations 12

13 Major U.S. and Canadian Beef Industry Trends over the Next 15 to 25 Years Total beef cow and calf crop inventory numbers will very likely decline significantly further over the next 20 years. There will be significantly fewer corn full fed cattle on feed over time and there will be further major excess cattle feeding capacity. There will be less corn and feed grains used by the beef industry. There will be more and less expensive grass and forages used over time by beef producers and cattle feeders to produce more ground beef. Total per capita beef consumption and market share will continue to decline. However, the consumption of ground beef will increase significantly further in the years ahead. The total cost of producing beef will and must come down in order to make beef more cost and price competitive with chicken. 13

14 The Frame Scores for About 90% of the U.S. Beef Cattle Herd Are Much Higher Today Than What They Were in or Should Be Today In Order For the Beef Cattle Industry to be Significantly More Cost Competitive Key Beef Production Categories Typical Dry Matter Feed Conversion Data 1. Today about 90% of the U.S. beef cattle herd frame scores fall within the range of 6.0 to to Today about 10% of the U.S. beef cattle herd frame scores fall within the range of 3.0 to to Those beef cattle that have frame scores of 3.0 to 5.0 (like was typically the case in ) usually have an improvement in dry matter feed conversion of 40% to 42%, compared to those beef cattle that have frame scores of 6.0 to In order to significantly reduce beef cow maintenance and beef cattle production costs through improved dry matter feed conversions, the size and weight of beef cattle needs to be reduced significantly from what typically is the case today. The U.S. beef cattle herd needs to have frame scores within the 3.0 to 5.0 range. The good news is that this can be done. Source: Leading U.S. beef cow-calf producers who have the solid data to support these numbers are people like Jim Lents from Indiahoma, Oklahoma (phone number is (580) ) and Kit Pharo of the Pharo Cattle Company in Cheyenne Wells, Colorado (phone number is (800) ). 14

15 I Agree with Kit Pharo of the Pharo Cattle Company in Cheyenne Wells, Colorado, When He Says Smaller Beef Cows Always Produce More Total Pounds of Beef Than Bigger Cows If your ranch and grass can support 100 beef cows that weight 1,400 pounds, it can easily support 120 beef cows that weigh 1,100 pounds. That is 20% more beef cows producing 20% more calves with the exact same grass and forage supplies. The calves produced by the smaller beef cows will be worth more per pound. Bottom line, the net result is more total pounds that are worth more per pound by having smaller beef cows and more calves and more total gross and net dollars per year! 15

16 The prospects are very high that the rate of U.S. economic GDP growth (for at least the next 12 years) will be much slower than normal. The prospects are very high that the rate of U.S. unemployment and underemployment (for at least the next 12 years) will be much higher than normal. 16

17 The net result of the these two very important economic trends will be U.S. consumers continuing to purchase and consume more and more ground beef (hamburger) and chicken for many years into the future. At the same time, more Americans will be buying and consuming less and less whole muscle beef and middle meats for many years into the future. 17

18 The U.S. and Canada now have all-time record high consumer beef prices. The cure for high prices is always high prices. These substantially higher consumer beef prices are very much a two-edged sword for all segments of the U.S. and Canadian beef industries. There is a very dark side associated with record high consumer beef prices. 18

19 Since 1976, U.S. per capita beef consumption declined 37 pounds per person or by 39%. For the two competing proteins of beef and chicken in the U.S. from 1976 through 2012, the market share for beef has declined 44% and the market share for chicken has increased 119%! Per capita beef consumption in the U.S. was 94 pounds per person in 1976 and was 57 pounds or 37 pounds per person less in Per capita beef consumption in the U.S. will reach all-time record low levels in 2013 and 2014 at about 54 and 53 pounds per person, respectively. 19

20 Per capita consumption of chicken in the U.S. was 36 pounds per person in 1976 and was 81 pounds per person in Since 1976, the per capita consumption for chicken has increased 46 pounds and by 119%. The primary and major reason and driving economic force explaining why beef consumption has been going south and chicken consumption has been going north has been the much lower cost and price of chicken. 20

21 For example, the average U.S. consumer price for beef in 2012 was $4.54 per pound or 149% and $2.72 per pound higher than the average consumer price of chicken in 2012 based on the USDA data. In the U.S. (on a dry matter conversion basis), for fed steers and heifers (on a combined basis) on a cornbased and high energy ration, it takes 6.4 pounds of feed to put on one pound of gain. In the U.S. (on a dry matter conversion basis), for broilers on a corn-based and high energy ration, it takes only 1.85 pounds of feed to put on one pound of gain. 21

22 Over much of the past 100 years, the U.S. and Canadian beef industries were built largely on historically and relatively cheap and low priced corn and energy. The U.S. and Canada now and for the past five years have had relatively high corn, feed grain and energy prices. This will generally continue to be the case in the years ahead. 22

23 The domestic consumer demand, purchases and consumption of ground beef (hamburger) has clearly been increasing since 1970 and in 2012 accounted for 56% of the total beef consumed in the U.S. I conservatively estimate that 65% to 70% of all the beef consumed in the U.S. (within the next 30 years) will be ground beef. America is truly a hamburger and chicken society. These realities will be even more true in the years ahead. The same is and will continue to be true for Canada. 23

24 Today, 60% of the total ground beef consumed in the U.S. comes from corn and full-fed steers and heifers on feed at very high ration costs. This means that about 40% to 42% of the total U.S. corn and full-fed steer and heifer annual marketings end up going into ground beef! My friends, this makes no economic sense! The U.S. and Canadian beef industries one-size-fits all and one-trick-pony business model is clearly broken. Economic forces will bring about the needed changes. 24

25 The U.S. and Canadian beef industries are generally not responding (1) to what consumers want more of, (2) to what they are purchasing and can afford and (3) to what consumers are consuming more and more of. U.S. and Canadian consumers are purchasing and consuming more and more lower priced ground beef (hamburger) and chicken. This has been happening since 1970 and over the past 43 years. This will continue to be even more the case for the next 30 years. 25

26 There is today very significant excess cattle feeding capacity in the U.S. and in Canada. Cattle feeders are paying too much for stocker and feeder cattle relative to what (1) their cost of gain is and (2) what they are able to sell their corn and fullfed steers and heifers for. Cattle feeding margins are now generally substantially negative. The loss of equity by the U.S. cattle feeding industry over the past 18 months has been the greatest in the past 50 years. 26

27 Cow-calf and stocker cattle operators and cattle feeders need to significantly reduce operating costs, breakeven levels and to increase production efficiencies. Own and purchase beef cattle that have frame scores that are 3.0 to 5.0 and thereby improve dry matter feed conversion by 40% to 42%. A major way to do this is to own and purchase cows, bulls, steers and heifers with frame scores of 3.0 to 5.0 and to maintain and to grow these beef cattle by using more grass, more forages and more lower cost feed byproducts and to use no corn, barley or other feed grains and to sharply reduce cow-calf maintenance costs as is done and recommended by Kit Pharo from Colorado and Jim Lents from Oklahoma via the use of smaller and lighter weight beef cows. 27

28 Produce significantly more ground beef at lower costs by using grass and forages. Produce much more grass-fed beef and forage-fed beef for the very large, well established and growing ground beef market in the U.S. and Canada. Add to the U.S. and Canadian governments beef grading systems and end up with at least a two-size fits all and a twotrick pony beef production business model that includes (1) corn and grain fed beef cattle for the declining demand for and the reduced consumption of whole muscle steaks and roasts and (2) grass and forage fed beef cattle for the increasing demand for the consumption of ground beef (hamburger). 28

29 The data is very clear. American consumers are purchasing and consuming more and more ground beef (hamburger). Ground beef is a very high quality protein product. It is a much more affordable product for 80% to 90% of American consumers, compared to corn fed and produced beef. 29

30 The quality and nutritional value of ground beef and middle meat steaks and roasts is the same that comes from steers and heifers that use corn, grass or forages. Very high quality and lean U.S. produced ground beef can be very successfully produced by using grass and/or a foragebased ration and program for steers and heifers. 30

31 The longer term future for the U.S. beef industry is in producing much larger quantities of ground beef with lower cost grass and/or forages moving forward. Beef quality is not the issue. The cost and price of beef is the issue. This is what American consumers are saying via how they are spending their protein dollars for ground beef and for chicken. 31

32 Where Does The Very Large Supply of Ground Beef (Hamburger) that is Consumed in the U.S. Presently Come From? Grain and full fed steer and heifer marketings out of U.S. Feedlots 60% Cull beef and dairy cows and bulls 25% Imported beef trimmings 15% Source: Based on private beef industry data and the USDA, Economic Research Service. 32

33 Where Will The Very Large Supply of Ground Beef (Hamburger) that is Consumed in the U.S. Come From in the Years Ahead? Grass and forage fed steers and heifers 40% Cull beef and dairy cows and bulls 25% Grain and full fed steer and heifer marketings out of U.S. Feedlots 20% Imported beef trimmings 15% Source: Based on private beef industry data and the USDA, Economic Research Service. 33

34 The U.S. and Canadian beef industries will end up like the lamb industry is today. Beef (from the consumers perspective) will simply become a specialty and luxury protein product like lamb and lobster is today. 34

35 Important Farm, Ag and Commodity Market Outlook Summary Trends for the Next 12 Years Corn Belt farmland market values now represent a major bubble. This bubble is going to burst within the next seven years. The decline in average farmland values for the Corn Belt will be 35% to 50%. If the Corn Belt generally has average to moderately favorable crop growing moisture and temperature conditions for the five crop years, average cash farm prices for corn in the Corn Belt will typically be in the $4.00 to $5.00 per bushel range or lower. 35

36 Average Land Values Per Acre Actual Average Annual Iowa (Statewide) Farmland Market Values Per Acre for the 43-Years of Iowa Farmland Values Increased $1,588 per acre or 24% from 2011 to = $8,296 per acre 2011 = $6,708 per acre = $419 per acre 1980 = $2,066 per acre 400 Years Source: The Iowa Land Value Survey, Michael D. Duffy and Associates, the Iowa Agricultural and Home Economics Department, Iowa State University 36

37 Average Land Values Per Acre Actual Average Annual Iowa (statewide) Farmland Market Values Per Acre for the 13-Years of Average annual Iowa Farmland values increased $6,439 per acre or 347% from 2000 through 2012 in only 13 years! 2012 = $8,296 per acre 2011 = $6,708 per acre = $1,857 per acre Iowa Farmland values increased a combined total of 72% for the years of 2010, 2011 and Years Source: The Iowa Land Value Survey, Michael D. Duffy and Associates, the Iowa Agricultural and Home Economics Department, Iowa State University 37

38 Important Farm, Ag and Commodity Market Outlook Summary Trends for the Next 12 Years The U.S. and global commodity markets will generally be in a downward and bear market trend for much of the next 12 years. This includes crude oil, food and feed grains, livestock, gold, silver, milk and most other commodities. The U.S. economy is going to experience general price and asset deflation over much of the next 12 years. The U.S. dollar is going to strengthen significantly over the next 12 years. 38

39 Important Farm, Ag and Commodity Market Outlook Summary Trends for the Next 12 Years Even though beef supplies will continue to decline and will be tight over most of the next 12 years, cattle prices will also generally trend lower because of consumer demand destruction, consumers eating less whole muscle beef middle meats and buying more lower price ground beef and chicken, price deflation trends, a weak U.S. and global economy and a stronger U.S. dollar. You should plan and prepare accordingly by producing more grass-fed and forage-fed ground beef at lower and more affordable prices for U.S. consumers. 39

40 The Bill Helming Consulting Services Newsletter AS I SEE IT Quarterly and Special Reports By Bill Helming Economist, Agribusiness Consultant, Author and Public Speaker South Glenview Lane Olathe, Kansas (913) Combined Third Quarter 2013 Newsletter Economic and Ag Sector Outlook Update September 10,

41 God Bless and Keep Smiling 41

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