Beef and Pork Economic Climate and Outlook. Andrew P. Griffith Assistant Extension Professor Livestock Economist

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1 Beef and Pork Economic Climate and Outlook Andrew P. Griffith Assistant Extension Professor Livestock Economist

2 Market Situation Global U.S. Economy Agriculture Cattle and Hog Industry

3 QTRLY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) Real Dollar (2009) Change from Previous Quarter Percent Change Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

4 Dollars PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME Quarterly Current Dollar 2005 Dollar Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

5 $ Per Cwt SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES 5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS

6 $ Per Cwt. 195 Tennessee lbs Steers, 2013 and 5-yr average, weekly /2011 Avg Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

7 MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly $ Per Cwt JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

8 $ Per Cwt. 160 Tennessee lbs Steers, 2013 and 5-yr average, weekly / Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

9 MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly $ Per Cwt JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

10 $ Per Cwt Tennessee, Breakers 75-80%, Weekly / Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

11 SLAUGHTER COW PRICES Southern Plains, 85-90% Lean, Weekly $ Per Cwt JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS

12 $ Per cwt JAN NET SLAUGHTER HOG PRICES National, Weighted Average Carcass Price, Weekly APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

13 $ Per Head FEEDER PIG PRICES 40 Pounds, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS

14 $ Per Cwt BARROW AND GILT PRICES Iowa - So. Minnesota, Carcass Base Price, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

15 Magnitude and Severity

16

17 Percent 75 WESTERN REGION RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION Percent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly May Jul Sep Data Source: USDA-NASS

18 Percent 90 GREAT PLAINS REGION RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION Percent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly May Jul Sep Data Source: USDA-NASS

19 Percent 75 SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION Percent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly May Jul Sep Data Source: USDA-NASS

20 Percent 80 CORNBELT REGION RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION Percent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly May Jul Sep Data Source: USDA-NASS

21 Percent 45 SOUTHEAST REGION RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION Percent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly May Jul Sep Data Source: USDA-NASS

22 BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUE Choice Lbs. Carcass, Weekly $ Per Cwt JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS

23 CHOICE MINUS SELECT BEEF PRICES Carcass Cutout Value Lbs., Weekly $ Per Cwt JAN APR JUL OCT Spread mid-november: $22.16 Largest spread since July Data Source: USDA-AMS

24 Mil. Head 118 BEEF PRODUCTION vs. CATTLE INVENTORY Inventory on January 1, U.S. Bil. Pounds Commercial Beef Production Total Cattle Inventory Data Source: USDA-AMS

25 $ Per Cwt WHOLESALE BEEF RIBEYE PRICES Boneless, Light, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS

26 $ Per Cwt. 265 WHOLESALE BEEF CHUCK PRICES Boneless 2 Piece, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS

27 $ Per Cwt WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICES Fresh, 90% Lean, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS

28 $ Per Cwt WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICES Fresh, 50% Lean, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS

29 Mil. Head PORK PRODUCTION vs. BREEDING HOG INVENTORY Inventory on December 1, U.S. Commercial Pork Production Bil. Pounds Breeding Hog Inventory Data Source: USDA-AMS

30 Index Value 120 RETAIL PORK DEMAND INDEX Annual, Using CPI 1990= Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

31 $ Per Cwt JAN HOG CUTOUT VALUE (Voluntary data prior to 2013), Weekly APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

32 WHOLESALE HAM PRICES Trimmed Selected, Pounds, Weekly $ Per Cwt JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS

33 $ Per Cwt. 165 WHOLESALE PORK LOIN PRICES 1/4 Inch Trim, Vacuum Sealed, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS

34 $ Per Cwt WHOLESALE PORK BELLY PRICES Skin-on, Pounds, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS

35 BROILER EGGS SET Weekly Mil. Eggs JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-NASS

36 Cents Per Pound 220 WHOLESALE CHICKEN BREAST PRICES Skinless/Boneless, Northeast, Truckload, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS

37 Mil. Head JANUARY 1 TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY U.S., Annual 2013 = 89.3 Million Head -1.6 Percent Data Source: USDA-AMS

38 PERCENT CHANGE IN CATTLE INVENTORY U.S., January Data Source: USDA-AMS

39 Mil. Head JANUARY 1 FEEDER CATTLE SUPPLIES Residual, Outside Feedlots, U.S Data Source: USDA-NASS

40 Mil. Head 70 MARCH 1 ALL HOGS AND PIGS U.S. Inventory (Prior to 1988 Estimated) Data Source: USDA-NASS

41 Mil. Head 7.5 MARCH 1 HOG BREEDING HERD U.S. Inventory (Prior to 1988 Estimated) Data Source: USDA-NASS

42 Bil. Pounds 3.0 U S BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

43 MAJOR U S BEEF EXPORT MARKETS Carcass Weight, Annual Mil. Pounds / Japan Canada Mexico Korea Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

44 U S BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly Mil. Pounds JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS

45 U S BEEF EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETS Carcass Weight, Monthly Mil. Pounds Japan Canada Mexico South Korea Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS

46 U S BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual Bil. Pounds Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

47 MAJOR U S BEEF IMPORT SOURCES Carcass Weight, Annual Mil. Pounds Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Australia New Zealand Canada Mexico 2006/

48 Thou. Head 2000 CATTLE IMPORTS FROM CANADA AND MEXICO Annual 1500 Mexico Canada Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

49 Bil. Pounds 6.0 U S PORK EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

50 Mil. Pounds 1600 MAJOR U S PORK EXPORT MARKETS Carcass Weight, Annual / Japan Canada Mexico Other Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

51 Mil. Pounds 160 U S PORK EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETS Carcass Weight, Monthly Japan Canada Mexico Russia Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS

52 Mil. Pounds 800 MAJOR U S PORK IMPORT SOURCES Carcass Weight, Annual / Canada Denmark Poland Mexico Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

53 HOG IMPORTS FROM CANADA Annual Mil. Head 10 8 total 6 under 110 lbs 4 2 over 110 lbs Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

54 $ Per Bu OMAHA CORN PRICES Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS

55 OTHER HAY - MONTHLY AVERAGE PRICE Received by Farmers, U.S., Crop Year $ Per Ton /08-11/12 / / MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR Data Source: USDA-NASS

56 KANSAS FEEDLOT CLOSEOUTS Feeding Costs per Cwt, Steers $/cwt / Data Source: KSU Focus on Feedlots, Compiled by LMIC Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

57 $ Per Cwt CHOICE STEER PRICE vs BREAKEVEN Cattle Feeding, S. Plains, Monthly Latest Data: August 2013 Steer Price Breakeven Projected Breakeven Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

58 $ Per Head AVERAGE RETURNS TO CATTLE FEEDERS Feeding 725 Lb. Steers, S. Plains, Monthly Latest Data: August Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

59 $ Per Cow 180 COW-CALF RETURNS AND CATTLE INVENTORY U.S., Annual Mil. Head Cow-Calf Returns Cattle Inventory Jan Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

60 May your boots still shine!

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