Please join us in Dubai to take advantage of this unique opportunity.

Transcription

1 IIF EXECUTIVE PROGRAM ON Understanding Country Risk Strategic Considerations for Financial Institutions in the MENA Region March 8-9, 2015 Dubai, UAE IN COOPERATION WITH

2 Introduction Offered in cooperation with the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), this two-day program covers a highly topical subject by providing a comprehensive overview of key aspects of country risk its relevance, its different facets, its changing dynamics, and its practical implications for business and risk management. Senior experts will present their approach of how to assess country risk, ways to detect early warning signals, and how to mitigate this risk while also sharing their insights and practical experiences. The program will also include a detailed session on sovereign rating methodology from the perspective of a rating agency and give participants the opportunity to exchange views among each other while discussing the challenges they face when dealing with country and sovereign risk issues. Please join us in Dubai to take advantage of this unique opportunity. Learning Objectives: Gain a strong overview of a best practice approach to country risk analysis Gain a better understanding of country risk, its different forms, and how country risk events might affect your own institution Improve knowledge about the relevant country and sovereign risk indicators and early-warning signals Acquire suggestions for a review of, or improvement to, your own approach to country and sovereign risk assessment Receive further insights from experts and fellow participants regarding how to deal with practical country risk challenges OF INTERST TO THOSE WORKING IN: Risk Management Country/Sovereign Risk Management Economics Investment Asset Allocation Strategy and Planning Treasury and Finance PROGRAM FACTS: Date: March 8-9, 2015 Location: Dubai, UAE Venue: Conference Center of DIFC CE/CPD Hours: 12 Fee Information: IIF Members: $2, (USD) Non-Members: $2, (USD) 2 Understanding Country Risk

3 UNDERSTANDING COUNTRY RISK SUNDAY, MARCH 8 8:30 am 9:00 am REGISTRATION 9:00 am 9:30 am SESSION 1: WELCOMING SESSION Opening remarks Introduction to the program DIFC IIF 9:30 am 10:30 am SESSION 2: OVERVIEW OF DIMENSIONS OF COUNTRY RISK Definition of country risk Macroeconomic risks and vulnerabilities Linkages among sovereign, banking, corporate, and housing sectors Sovereign debt crises, financial and banking crises, housing and other asset price bubbles who pays the price? Specialist, RobecoSAM 10:30 am 11:00 am COFFEE BREAK 11:00 am 12:30 pm SESSION 3: THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND FINANCIAL MARKETS RISK, VULNERABILITIES, AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MENA REGION Global financial markets what the emerging risks to consider are and how they will impact the region Oil and energy concerns to consider for country risk observers in the region both oil importing countries and oil exporting countries Giyas Gokkent, Senior Economist, IIF 12:30 pm 1:30 pm LUNCH 1:30 pm 3:00 pm SESSION 4: [PANEL DISCUSSION] EXPERIENCES OF DIFFERENT INSTITUTIONS IN ANALYZING COUNTRY RISK Current diverse approaches along factors of geographic, business profiles, and financial market development How bank and non-bank institutions view the world and how they deal with the emerging risks Lessons learned from the global financial crisis, particularly MENA region Specialist Michael McDonnell, Founder & MD, MMD Global Advisory 3:00 pm 3:30 pm COFFEE BREAK 3:30 pm 5:30 pm SESSION 5: GROUP DISCUSSION & SUB-GROUP PRESENTATIONS Sharing of participants perspectives on their own approaches to country risk in their respective institutions Exchange of views and experiences on their challenges and concerns regarding country risk Identification of various issues to focus on during the program going forward Sort the major challenges from the less relevant aspects in your practical application Specialist Olga Kalinina, Senior Director, S&P 5:30 pm 7:00 pm RECEPTION & LIGHT DINNER (all participants expected to attend) Institute of International Finance 3

4 UNDERSTANDING COUNTRY RISK MONDAY, MARCH 9 9:00 am 10:30 am SESSION 6: [WORKSHOP] RATING METHODOLOGY SOVEREIGN RISK Fundamentals of credit ratings: Ratings process Ratings definitions Sovereign ratings in MENA Olga Kalinina, Senior Director, S&P 10:30 am 11:00 am COFFEE BREAK 11:00 am 12:30 pm SESSION 6: [WORKSHOP] RATING METHODOLOGY SOVEREIGN RISK (CONTINUED) Sovereign rating methodology: Institutional and governance effectiveness Economic profile External profile Fiscal profile Monetary flexibility Olga Kalinina, Senior Director, S&P 12:30 pm 1:30 pm LUNCH 1:30 pm 3:30 pm SESSION 7: METHODOLOGIES FOR ASSESSING, MONITORING, AND MANAGING COUNTRY RISK Modeling Importance in credit risk management Burcu Çalıklı, Head of Credit, First Gulf Bank 3:30 pm 4:00 pm COFFEE BREAK 4:00 pm 5:00 pm SESSION 8: [ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSION] STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS FOR COUNTRY RISK THE WAY FORWARD What have we learned over the two days main takeaways What are the areas where more focus in needed going forward? Features of a new extended country risk analysis framework employing ESG indicators Specialist 5:00 pm 5:30 pm WRAP UP 4 Understanding Country Risk

5 Speaker Profiles Specialist, RobecoSAM Max joined RobecoSAM in March 2015 as a Specialist, and is in charge of the maintenance and further development of the country sustainability ranking. Prior, he spent 30 years in various economic research and country risk analysis functions, among other as Head Global Economy & Country Risk at Swiss Bank Corporation and UBS. His earlier work experience included country & sovereign risk assessments, development of country risk analysis frameworks, design of macroeconomic stress scenarios, and writing various firm-specific economic and geopolitical risk reports. Max holds a Master s degree in Economics from Fribourg University and a Diploma in General Bank Management from the Swiss Finance Institute. Giyas Gokkent, Senior Economist, Africa & Middle East, Institute of International Finance Giyas has experience spanning insurance, academia, asset management and banking. Prior, he was Group Chief Economist at National Bank of Abu Dhabi and acted as co-head of Asset Management Group; he worked at the Strategic Planning Department of Garanti Bank, Turkey as an Economist where he served as a member of an advisory body for Volkswagen-Dogus Finance; and he served as a member of the banking sector advisory body at the Association of Turkish Industrialists and Businessmen. He has held a number of academic positions in the US, Turkey, and the UAE and served as the acting head of the finance department at Abu Dhabi University. Giyas holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Florida International University. Michael McDonnell, Founder & Managing Director, MMD Global Advisory Mike founded MMD (based in Starnberg, Germany), which focuses on country risk, the emerging markets and global capital markets developments. Prior, he held positions at the global insurance company Allianz SE in Munich; he served as Head of Credit Risk Analysis in Group Risk, where he was responsible for the monitor of obligor credit risk quality in the AZ Group insurance investment portfolio. Mike has over 20 years of experience in the financial services industry: Corporate Risk Management group at Merrill Lynch, where he was Director and Co-head of Country Risk; Founder and Research Director for Berkeley Global Advisory; and Principal and Investment Risk Manager at Barclays Global Investors (BGI)/Black Rock. Mike received Masters degrees in Applied Statistics from Columbia University as well as in International Relations from the University of Chicago. Also, he holds a Financial Risk Manager certification (FRM) from GARP. Olga Kalinina, Senior Director, Criteria Officer, Standard & Poor s Ratings Services Olga works on the criteria development for both practices and chairs the Sovereign and IPF Criteria Committees. She is a member of the Corporate and Government Criteria Committee and Country Risk and Emerging Markets Criteria Committee. Prior, she was a Director in the Sovereign Ratings, focusing on sovereign credit analysis of various emerging markets and developed economies, as well on the coverage of sovereign-supported entities and multilateral institutions. Previous to joining Standard & Poor s in 1998, Olga was an Assistant Portfolio Manager at Novos Planning Associates, a New York-based investment management company. Olga holds a MBA in Finance from Pace University (New York) and is a CFA charterholder. Institute of International Finance 5

6 Speaker Profiles Burcu Çalıklı, Head of Credit - Dubai & Northern Emirates, First Gulf Bank Burcu is the Head of Wholesale Credit for First Gulf Bank Dubai and NE Region, concentrating on the funding needs of corporate and investment banking customers in that Region while optimizing the risk and return of the portfolio. Prior, Burcu was the Country Risk Director in Turkiye Finans Participation Bank based in Istanbul. She was instrumental in reshaping the risk function, managing a credit portfolio that has one of the lowest NPLs in its peer group and providing senior risk leadership through her participation in the credit and audit committees. She is a Certified Islamic Finance Executive. Burcu has 20 years of diverse banking experience of which 12 years were at Citibank in a variety of risk management roles, including Corporate Credit, Consumer Credit and Market Risk Management; she was a Senior Credit Officer ( SCO ) at Citibank and was Country Consumer Risk Director when she left Citi. 6 Understanding Country Risk

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