presentation to Director Data Driven Detroit (D3)

Transcription

1 A Contemporary View of the Detroit Region s History and Demographics presentation to Leadership Detroit XXXII Kurt Metzger Director Data Driven Detroit (D3) October 14, 2010

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5 The national media are telling a half-century story as if it unfolded over a few years, and, in the process, they're missing important explanations and underpinnings. The truth is, we've struggled with leadership around here for at least the last half-century, if not longer. And that's where we should be embarrassed by the similarities between the 1961 Time story and today's coverage. How can we have learned so little over so long? What does it say about leadership -- or our ability to choose leaders -- that we're facing the same issues today that confronted us before men walked on the moon?

6 The Transformation of Detroit No one social program or policy, no single force, whether housing segregation, social welfare programs or deindustrialization, could have driven Detroit and other cities like it from their position of economic and political dominance; there is no simple explanation for the inequality and marginality that beset the urban poor. It is only through the complex and interwoven histories of race, residence and work in the postwar era that the state of today s cities and their impoverished residents can be fully understood and confronted. Thomas J. Sugrue, The Origins of the Urban Crisis: Race and Inequality in Postwar Detroit. Page 5 A number of historical and contemporary policies and structural factors created today s conditions in Detroit

7 Detroit s Population History 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,568,662 1,849,568 1,670,144 1,623,452 1,511,482 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, ,078 1,203,339 1,027, , , , , , , , , , , , , Source: Census Bureau and SEMCOG (2010)

8 Figure 6 Net Flow of Domestic Migration Southeast Michigan, ,000 35,000 15,000 St. Clair 4,000 2,000 7,000 7,000 Livingston 6,000 Oakland 10,000 16,000 Macomb 5,000 15,000 1,000 4,000 Washtenaw 7,000 Balance of Wayne 18,000 Detroit 18,000 1, Monroe 3,000 32,000 Arrows extending beyond the Southeast Michigan boundary represent the net flow of domestic migration between the specific county/area and U.S. counties outside the region. In net terms, 32,000 more persons moved from the Balance of Wayne County to U.S. counties outside the region, from Note: Numbers shown represent the net flow of persons age five and older. Net flows between non-adjacent counties areas in Southeast Michigan are less than 2,000. For purposes of map clarity, these net flows are not shown. Source: U.S. Census Bureau.?? - Migration and its Impact on Southeast Michigan,

9 Growth of Detroit Suburbs Post World War II 3,500,000 TRI-COUNTY TOTALS 3,000,000 2,500, ,016, ,762, ,203, ,044, ,912, ,043, ,962, ,932,469 2,092,246 2,692,261 2,840,897 2,884,705 3,092,197 3,051,863 3,160,050 2,000,000 1,849,568 1,500,000 1,670,144 1,511,482 1,166,629 1,203,339 1,000,000 1,027, , , , , Source: Census Bureau and SEMCOG (2010)

10 Development History Year Built by 5 Acre Gridcells 1920 and Earlier

11 M-39 M-8 I-96 M-39 I-96 I-96 M-39 I-375 Persons Per Square Mile 40,000-64,910 30,000-39,999 20,000-29,999 10,000-19,999 5,000-9, ,999 No Population Miles Sources: Data Driven Detroit, Wayne State University, Claritas, Demographics Now, US Census Bureau 7/30/2010 Population Density, by Census Tract 1930 Detroit, Michigan

12 M-39 M-8 I-96 M-39 I-96 I-96 M-39 I-375 Persons Per Square Mile 40,000-78,566 30,000-39,999 20,000-29,999 10,000-19,999 5,000-9, , Miles Sources: Data Driven Detroit, Wayne State University, Claritas, Demographics Now, US Census Bureau 7/30/2010 Population Density, by Census Tract 1940 Detroit, Michigan

13 M-39 M-8 I-96 M-39 I-96 I-96 M-39 I-375 Persons Per Square Mile 40,000-80,150 30,000-39,999 20,000-29,999 10,000-19,999 5,000-9, , Miles Sources: Data Driven Detroit, Wayne State University, Claritas, Demographics Now, US Census Bureau 7/30/2010 Population Density, by Census Tract 1950 Detroit, Michigan

14 M-39 M-8 I-96 M-39 I-96 I-96 M-39 I-375 Persons Per Square Mile 40,000-56,275 30,000-39,999 20,000-29,999 10,000-19,999 5,000-9,999 1,410-4,999 No Population Miles Sources: Data Driven Detroit, Wayne State University, Claritas, Demographics Now, US Census Bureau 7/30/2010 Population Density, by Census Tract 1960 Detroit, Michigan

15 M-39 M-8 I-96 M-39 I-96 I-96 M-39 I-375 Persons Per Square Mile 30,000-39,582 20,000-29,999 10,000-19,999 5,000-9, , Miles Sources: Data Driven Detroit, Wayne State University, Claritas, Demographics Now, US Census Bureau 7/30/2010 Population Density, by Census Tract 1970 Detroit, Michigan

16 M-39 M-8 I-96 M-39 I-96 I-96 M-39 I-375 Persons Per Square Mile 30,000-32,710 20,000-29,999 10,000-19,999 5,000-9, ,999 No Population Miles Sources: Data Driven Detroit, Wayne State University, Claritas, Demographics Now, US Census Bureau 7/30/2010 Population Density, by Census Tract 1980 Detroit, Michigan

17 M-39 M-8 I-96 M-39 I-96 I-96 M-39 I-375 Persons Per Square Mile 10,000-16,901 5,000-9, ,999 No Population Miles Sources: Data Driven Detroit, Wayne State University, Claritas, Demographics Now, US Census Bureau 7/30/2010 Population Density, by Census Tract 1990 Detroit, Michigan

18 M-39 M-8 I-96 M-39 I-96 I-96 M-39 I-375 Persons Per Square Mile 8-4,999 5,000-9,999 10,000-17,090 No Population Miles Sources: Data Driven Detroit, Wayne State University, Claritas, Demographics Now, US Census Bureau 7/30/2010 Population Density, by Census Tract 2000 Detroit, Michigan

19 M-39 M-8 I-96 M-39 I-96 I-96 M-39 I-375 Persons Per Square Mile 6-4,999 5,000-9,999 10,000-16,051 No Population Miles Sources: Data Driven Detroit, Wayne State University, Claritas, Demographics Now, US Census Bureau 7/30/2010 Population Density, by Census Tract 2010 Detroit, Michigan

20 South Metropolitan Detroit MCD's Population Change Memphis Holly Twp Groveland Twp Brandon Twp Oxford Twp Addison Twp Bruce Twp Armada Twp Richmond Twp Richmond Washington Twp Ray Twp Rose Twp Springfield Twp Independence Twp Clarkston Orion Twp Oakland Twp Lenox Twp Highland Twp White Lake Twp Oakland Waterford Twp Keego Harbor Lake Angelus Sylvan Lake Pontiac Auburn Hills Rochester Rochester Hills Shelby Twp Macomb Twp Macomb Utica Mount Clemens Chesterfield Twp Harrison Twp New Baltimore Milford Twp Wixom Commerce Twp Walled Lake Orchard Lake Village West Bloomfield Twp Bloomfield Twp Bloomfield Hills Birmingham Troy Clawson Sterling Heights Clinton Twp Fraser Lyon Lyon Twp Novi Novi Twp Farmington Hills Farmington Southfield Twp Lathrup Village Southfield Royal Oak Twp Madison Royal Oak Heights Berkley Pleasant Ridge Huntington Woods Oak Park Hazel Park Ferndale Warren Center Line Roseville Eastpointe St. Clair Shores Grosse Pointe Shores Northville Northville Twp Plymouth Twp Plymouth Livonia Redford Twp Wayne Detroit Highland Park Hamtramck Harper Woods Grosse Pointe Park Grosse Pointe Grosse Pointe Woods Grosse Pointe Farms Lake St. Clair Westland Garden City Dearborn Heights Detroit River Canton Twp. Inkster Dearborn Van Buren Twp Belleville Sumpter Twp Wayne Romulus Huron Twp Taylor Melvindale River Rouge Allen Park Ecorse Lincoln Park Wyandotte Southgate Riverview Woodhaven Trenton Grosse Ile Twp Percent Canada Change C a n a d a 60% to 123% 40% to 59.9% 20% to 39.9% 1% to 19.9% -4.9% to -1% -17% to -5% Flat Rock Gibraltar Rockwood Brownstown Twp Lake Erie Wayne State Univesity/Center for Urban Studies May 2001

21 Figure 6 Net Flow of Domestic Migration Southeast Michigan, ,000 35,000 15,000 St. Clair 4,000 2,000 7,000 7,000 Livingston 6,000 Oakland 10,000 16,000 Macomb 5,000 15,000 1,000 4,000 Washtenaw 7,000 Balance of Wayne 18,000 Detroit 18,000 1, Monroe 3,000 32,000 Arrows extending beyond the Southeast Michigan boundary represent the net flow of domestic migration between the specific county/area and U.S. counties outside the region. In net terms, 32,000 more persons moved from the Balance of Wayne County to U.S. counties outside the region, from Note: Numbers shown represent the net flow of persons age five and older. Net flows between non-adjacent counties areas in Southeast Michigan are less than 2,000. For purposes of map clarity, these net flows are not shown. Source: U.S. Census Bureau.?? - Migration and its Impact on Southeast Michigan,

22 Annual Migration City of Detroit, 2000, 2005, ,000 28,704 20,000 14,322 20, ,000-40,000 3,084 2,222 1, ,562-18,261-29,968-40,689-40,631 Domestic In Domestic Out International Net Migration Net Migration -60,000-80,000-71,183 Source: Census 2000, ACS 2005 and 2008

23 Destinations of Out Migration City of Detroit, 2008 The Rest of Michigan 30,653 (43%) Balance of Wayne County 25,179 (35%) Outside Michigan 15,351 (22%) Source: ACS 2008

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25 Detroit Residential Parcel Survey A joint project of W i t h t h e s u p p o r t o f Detroit Residential Parcel Survey - 12/2009

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27 Detroit Residential Parcel Survey 2/2010

28 Detroit Residential Parcel Survey - 12/2009

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30 Detroit Residential Parcel Survey - 12/2009

31 Detroit Residential Parcel Survey 2/2010

32 Predominant Race, 1950 Tri-County Area OAKLAND MACOMB Detroit WAYNE Legend COUNTY City Census Tract Predominant Race White Black No Data No Population Source: Minnesota Population Center. HNGIS, 2004 December 2008/jcb

33 Predominant Race, 1960 Tri-County Area OAKLAND MACOMB Detroit WAYNE Legend COUNTY City Census Tract Predominant Race White Black No Data No Population Source: Minnesota Population Center. HNGIS, 2004 December 2008/jcb

34 Predominant Race, 1970 Tri-County Area OAKLAND MACOMB Detroit WAYNE Legend COUNTY City Census Tract Predominant Race White Black Source: US Census Bureau, 1970 December 2008/jcb

35 Predominant Race, 1980 Tri-County Area OAKLAND MACOMB Detroit WAYNE Legend COUNTY City Census Tract Predominant Race White Black Hispanic No Population Source: US Census Bureau, 1980 December 2008/jcb

36 Predominant Race, 1990 Tri-County Area OAKLAND MACOMB Detroit WAYNE Legend COUNTY City Census Tract Predominant Race White Black Hispanic No Population Source: US Census Bureau, 1990 December 2008/jcb

37 Predominant Race, 2000 Tri-County Area OAKLAND MACOMB Detroit WAYNE Legend COUNTY City Census Tract Predominant Race White Black Hispanic No Population Source: US Census Bureau, 2000 December 2008/jcb

38 Michigan Michigan Michigan Michigan Michigan Michigan Michigan Michigan Michigan Van Dyke Highland Park Gratiot Telegraph 10 Hamtramck Grand Grand Grand Grand Grand Grand Grand Grand Grand River River River River River River River River River Woodward 39 Belle Isle Detroit River Predominant Race by Census Tract White Black Predominant Race by Source: US Census Bureau, CensusTract Detroit, Michigan 2001 Wayne State University CULMA/Center for Urban Studies/jcb

39 Michigan Michigan Michigan Michigan Michigan Michigan Michigan Michigan Michigan Van Dyke Belle Isle Detroit River Highland Park Hamtramck Telegraph Grand Grand Grand Grand Grand Grand Grand Grand Grand River River River River River River River River River Woodward Gratiot Predominant Race by Census Tract Hispanic Black White No Population No Predominant Race Source: US Census Bureau Wayne State University Predominant Race by 2000 Census Tract Detroit, Michigan CULMA/Center for Urban Studies/jcb

40 Whites have moved throughout the region since 1970, while African Americans have moved primarily to concentrated areas adjacent to the City of Detroit. Prepared by: Kirwan Institute Date: September 30, 2005 Projection: State Plane 83 Michigan South Source: Neighborhood Change Database; Geography Network; U.S. Census Bureau Notes: White Population Change 1970 to 2000 Detroit and Surrounding Counties Prepared by: Kirwan Institute Date: September 30, 2005 Projection: State Plane 83 Michigan South Source: Neighborhood Change Database; Geography Network; U.S. Census Bureau Notes: African American Population Change 1970 to 2000 Detroit and Surrounding Counties Lapeer Lapeer St. Clair St. Clair Oakland Macomb Oakland Macomb Wayne Wayne Monroe County Boundaries Water Bodies Census Tracts Population Loss Above 5000 Persons Monroe County Boundaries Water Bodies Census Tracts Population Loss Above 5000 Persons

41 The Movement of Persons of Color to the Suburbs Marked the Decade of the 1990s White Black Asian Hispanic Multi/Othr Macomb 34,402 10,838 8,005 4,457 12,841 Oakland 13,452 42,907 24,827 9,369 19,692 Washtenaw 12,095 7,992 8,779 3,108 7,414 Out-Wayne -44,235 21,866 12,970 8,007 26,672 Detroit -112,357-2,563 1,219 18,694 18,664 Source: Census Bureau

42 The 1990s Brought a Large Out-migration of Blacks and Higher Income Households From Detroit 90% 80% 2000 Census Distribution Share of Outmigrants 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% White Black Asian Other Hispanic/Latino < $25,000 $25,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $74,999 $75,000 or more Source: MIMIC/SEMCOG Analysis of 2000 PUMS

43 Married Couples With Children Were the Drivers of Out-migration From Detroit in the 1990s 40% 35% 2000 Census Distribution Share of Outmigrants 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Married Couple with Children Married Couple without Children Other Family with Children Other Family without Children Non-Family Household Source: MIMIC/SEMCOG Analysis of 2000 PUMS

44 New Immigrants Had a Large Impact on Southeast Michigan in the 1990s Arrived in 1980s Arrived in 1990s % of Total Foreign Born Livingston 333 1, Macomb 7,119 23, Monroe Oakland 20,364 53, St. Clair 411 1, Washtenaw 10,101 18, Wayne 27,177 66,105 48

45 Annual Migration City of Detroit, 2000, 2005, ,000 28,704 20,000 14,322 20, ,000-40,000 3,084 2,222 1, ,562-18,261-29,968-40,689-40,631 Domestic In Domestic Out International Net Migration Net Migration -60,000-80,000-71,183 Source: Census 2000, ACS 2005 and 2008

46 The Growth and Movement of Persons of Color Has Increased Across the Region Since % 150% 194.8% Macomb Oakland Wayne 100% 50% 0% 46.1% 39.3% 40.0% 31.6% 30.5% 23.9% 27.6% 28.6% 13.5% 13.2% 4.4% -8.9% -1.7%-10.9% African American Native American Asian Multi-Race Hispanic -50% Source: Census Bureau Population Estimates Program

47 Top Countries of Origin for Immigrants Coming to Metropolitan Detroit, ,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 10,485 4,000 7,531 2,000 4,902 4,172 4,064 3,447 3,259 2,839 2,779 2,375 2,090 1,741 0 Source: US Dept. Of Homeland Security / Immigration

48 The Racial/Ethnic Composition of Detroit and Its Suburbs Are Nearly Mirror Opposites 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 6.9% 3.1% 2.0% 1.2% 4.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 10.9% 82.3% 79.7% Hispanic / Latino Other / Multi-Race Asian/Pacific Islander Native American Black /African American White 10% 0% 8.4% Detroit Suburbs Source: Census Bureau ACS 2008

49 GLOBAL DETROIT

50 TEN STRATEGIC PROGRAM INITIATIVES 1. Support and enhance a Welcome Mat of immigration services. 2. Expand the Cultural Ambassadors program at Ann Arbor Spark so that more ethnic teams are created and the program supports all communities within the region. 3. Create a Detroit Mayor s Office of Global Affairs. 4. Develop a Welcoming America campaign for southeast Michigan. 5. Connect immigrant and ethnic communities with regional leadership. 6. Create and support an EB-5 Investor Visa Regional Center in southeast Michigan. 7. Work with Canadian economic development officials to recruit global firms whose growth and expansion is hindered by restrictive U.S. immigration laws. 8. Develop and implement neighborhood revitalization strategies that capitalize on immigration and immigrant communities. 9. Make Detroit an attractive second landing destination for foreign born residents who seek better opportunities than what is offered in traditional gateway cities. 10. Develop attraction and retention initiatives for foreign students at Michigan colleges and universities.

51 FOUR STRATEGIC OUTCOMES 1. Make the region welcoming to the international community and immigrants. 2. Attract international investment and businesses that create jobs. 3. Strengthen, grow, and revitalize neighborhoods in the city of Detroit and in the region s core communities. 4. Attract and retain international talent in the region.

52 What Has Accompanied These Changes? Concentrated poverty in the City Abandonment, disinvestment and vacancy in the City of Detroit Extreme segregation Greater land consumption with declining population Shifting of employment activities to the suburbs The suburbs have about 85% of the region's retail establishments and 87% of the jobs Impacts on the economic health of the entire Detroit region Suburban Job Centers in Detroit

53 30% 25% Detroit s Unemployment Rate Runs Consistently Two to Three Times That of the Suburbs Between 2000 and Employed Detroiters Down by 20.1 percent / Unemployed Up 241% (66,605) Employed Suburbanites Down by 19.1 percent / Unemployed Up 289% (140,734) Suburbs Detroit 25.0% 20% 17.9% 17.4% 15% 15.3% 13.6% 16.0% 13.9% 14.0% 14.1% 14.3% 13.7% 10% 11.2% 10.1% 10.0% 12.0% 10.1% 12.6% 5% 6.2% 7.6% 7.3% 5.7% 9.0% 8.4% 8.1% 7.3% 4.5% 3.8% 3.8% 3.3% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 4.3% 5.1% 5.6% 5.7% 5.7% 5.8% 6.2% 7.0% 0% Source: MI Labor Market Information

54 The Number of Tri-County Residents Reporting Working in Detroit Has Dropped by 391,000 (57%) Over Last 40 Years 750, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 50, Tri-County Macomb Oakland Out-Wayne Detroit Source: Census Bureau

55 Detroit is the Most Decentralized (Sprawled) Employment Metro in the U.S. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 45.7% 38.1% 16.2% 77.4% 15.7% 7.0% 29.4% 24.2% 65.6% 63.2% 45.1% 33.6% 68.7% 46.3% 50.0% 29.1% 45.4% 25.9% 21.0% 13.4% 17.9% 26.2% 27.5% 8.2% 9.3% 24.3% 25.8% Detroit Cleveland Chicago IndianapolisPittsburgh Atlanta Los Angeles Phoenix Portland Beyond 10 Miles 3 to 10 Miles Within 3 Miles Source: Brookings Institution, 2009 Job Sprawl Revisited 108,000 Jobs lost / / 3.1% growth beyond 10 miles

56 Detroit s Daytime Population is Slightly Less than Its Residential Population Oklahoma City city, OK Portland city, OR Fort Worth city, TX Charlotte city, NC Nashville-Davidson (balance), TN Denver city, CO Seattle city, WA El Paso city, TX Washington city, DC Boston city, MA Milw aukee city, WI Memphis city, TN Baltim ore city, MD Austin city, TX Columbus city, OH Jacksonville city, FL San Francisco city, CA Indianapolis city (balance), IN San Jose city, CA Detroit city, MI San Antonio city, TX Dallas city, TX San Diego city, CA Phoenix city, AZ Philadelphia city, PA Houston city, TX Chicago city, IL Los Angeles city, CA Ne w York city, NY

57 Income* 2000, * 2009 Change %Change Median Household Income City of Detroit 38,089 26,098-11, % Southeast Michigan 63,303 48,535-14, % Macomb County 67,070 50,553-16, % Oakland County 79,692 62,308-17, % Wayne County 52,491 38,192-14, % Michigan 57,499 45,255-12, % United States 54,058 50,221-3, % * Note: All 2000 monetary values are adjusted to 2009 dollars using U.S. Consumer Price Research Series Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U-RS) from 1999 to Source: U.S. Department of Labor

58 It is often said that Crisis brings Opportunity Detroit is, on many levels, in a crisis but Opportunities and Green Shoots are Everywhere!

59 Crisis Continued Outmigration Foreclosures and Home Abandonment Declining Tax Base and City Services Retail Disinvestment Vacant and Dangerous Buildings Failing Public Schools Lack of Regional Cooperation

60 building towards a vision eight planning propositions 1 Who will live in Detroit? 2 Where will people live? 3 Where will people work? 4 How will people move? 5 What will people need? 6 How will the city invest? 7 How will Detroit look? 8 How will we decide? City of Detroit Toni L. Griffin DCDC CBI JSA future Detroit

61 The Technical Scope 1 Land Use Development 2 Economic Recovery 3 9 Green & Gray Infrastructure Neighborhoods, Housing Amenities 4 Landscape & Ecology City of Detroit Toni L. Griffin DCDC CBI JSA 8 Transportation & Transit 5 Environmental Sustainability 7 Public Services, Operations & Fiscal Reform 6 Historic & Cultural Resources

62 Project Area Priorities For Detroit Entrepreneurship Development Growing Small Business [NEI Kaufman Foundation] The Woodward Creative Corridor and Anchor Institution Strategy [Hudson-Webber and Kresge Foundations] Mass Transit Development M-1 Rail and DDOT Plans [Private Sector partners/kresge Kresge/Federal resources] Education Systems Redesign PreK 20 Framework [Skillman Foundation/DPS/Others]

63 Project Area Priorities For Detroit cont d The Green Economy and a Sustainable City Agenda Reshaping the City A Roadmap for Land Use Reform Identification of need for strong community engagement Robust Arts and Culture Ecosystem Critical need to bring strong financial footing to major existing arts and culture institutions Cultural Alliance Neighborhoods of Choice Aligning Strategies and Investments [awaiting city short and long term strategies] Healthcare Innovation and Excellence

64 A Contemporary View of the Detroit Region s History and Demographics presentation to Leadership Detroit XXXII Kurt Metzger Director Data Driven Detroit (D3) October 14, 2010