Arup DC Pension Scheme

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1 A presentation for: Arup DC Pension Scheme March 3 rd 2015

2 ARUP DC PENSION SCHEME Investment Summary 31/01/2015 Merrion Cash Fund 2, Merrion Global Equity Fund 199, Merrion Long Bond Fund 19, Merrion High Alpha Fund 178, Merrion Managed Fund 81, Total Portfolio Value 481, Investment Performance - Summary 3-Months 12 -Months Merrion Cash Fund 0.0% 0.1% Merrion Global Equity Fund 12.6% 25.8% Merrion Long Bond Fund 12.7% 31.5% Merrion High Alpha Exempt Fund 12.2% 16.1% Merrion Managed Fund 11.2% 23.2% 2

3 MERRION INVESTMENT MANAGERS ABOUT US Ireland s leading independent pension and investment fund manager Operating since 1986 formerly Oppenheim Investment Managers Culturally oriented towards client interests Independently owned, not a subsidiary of a Bank or Life company Our portfolios have consistently outperformed both the underlying markets and the returns of our competitors over the long-term Investment team has 15 years average industry experience 3

4 MERRION INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY Active management is essential to maximising investment return Over the long term equity market performance reflects valuation but over the short term reflects sentiment Our three-pillar investment process captures these drivers A flexible approach to asset allocation is more appropriate than rigid allocations In an increasingly global economy sector exposure is as important as regional weighting We are not tied to a single investment strategy such as value or growth 4

5 PERFORMANCE BASED ON A ROBUST INVESTMENT PROCESS Economic growth dynamics Macro- Economic Analysis Technical Analysis Price movements & momentum Valuation Analysis Capital efficiency & valuation 5

6 POOLED PENSION PRODUCT Merrion Investment Trust Launched in 1993 with a current size of EUR 500 million Umbrella structure with 10 separate investment options No Bid / Offer spread Low annual management charges: Managed Fund 0.50% Cash Fund 0.25% High Alpha Exempt Fund 1.50%* Irish Equity Fund 0.60% Global Equity Fund 0.60% European Equity Fund 0.60% Fixed Interest Fund 0.40% Technology Fund 1.50% Long Bond Fund 0.10% Ethical Fund 0.75% *The High Alpha Fund has a performance related fee of 20% of excess return over 7% p.a. 6

7 MERRION GLOBAL EQUITY FUND Performance since inception to Asset Allocation Merion Global Equity Fund World Equity Markets Source: Longboat Analytics PERFORMANCE UPDATE AT Merrion Global Equities 1 Month 6.4% 5.8% 3 Months 12.6% 9.3% 1 Year 25.8% 27.8% 3 Years p.a. 17.8% 17.2% 5 Years p.a. 13.6% 14.8% 10 Years p.a. 7.3% 8.1% 15 Years p.a. 3.5% 3.1% Total returns driven by positions in Japanese and European equities, and US dollars The fund is underweight US equities and overweight European and Japanese equities Source: Merrion & Longboat Analytics

8 HIGH ALPHA EXEMPT FUND Launched in 2007* to provide an absolute return platform for Merrion Investment Managers investment process which has a 20 year proven track record in multi asset funds The fund aims to deliver returns of at least 7% per annum PERFORMANCE UPDATE HIGH ALPHA EXEMPT Source: Merrion Investment Managers FUND TARGET 1 Month 3.2% 0.6% 3 Months 12.2% 1.7% 1 Year 16.1% 7.0% 3 Years p.a. 9.4% 7.0% 5 Years p.a. 4.9% 7.0% 7 Years p.a.* 11.6% 7.0% Inception p.a.* 13.1% 7.0% Inception* 150.7% 65.8% Capital preservation We actively manage asset allocation between asset classes to help protect against capital loss A high conviction fund The fund invests in the most attractive themes and ideas from Merrion s successful investment process Low Correlation with Equity Markets An investment in the High Alpha Fund can significantly reduce the overall volatility of an investor s portfolio Recent performance driven largely by exposure to European cyclical stocks (such as Daimler, Infineon and Peugeot) and US dollars After such a strong start to the year for equity markets, we have implemented strategies to lower volatility and protect against downside risks * The Merrion High Alpha Exempt Fund was launched in August Therefore, it does not have an established long-term past performance record. To demonstrate the investment manager s capabilities in differing historic market conditions, we have shown the past performance of the High Alpha Fund. 8

9 MERRION MANAGED FUND Performance since inception to Ireland s number one performing multi-asset pension fund over the long-term, outperforming peers consistently over the short and long-term. Multi-asset structure (Equities, Bonds, Alternatives, Property and Cash) Over the last 20 years, 100,000 invested in the MET Merion Managed Fund MoneyMate Pooled Fund Average Source: Longboat Analytics PERFORMANCE UPDATE AT Managed Average 1 Month 5.4% 3.9% 1 Year 23.2% 17.6% 3 Years p.a. 16.9% 12.8% 5 Years p.a. 11.7% 10.2% 10 Years p.a. 6.8% 5.3% 15 Years p.a. 5.0% 3.7% Managed fund would have grown to 625,477 compared to 457,540 in the average managed/consensus fund. Merrion Managed Fund Returns are significantly ahead of other asset classes: Total Return since Managed inception ( 20/10/93) Annualised Return Merrion Managed Fund 819% 11.0% S&P 500 Index 548% 9.2% Euro Stoxx Index 405% 7.9% Euro Govt Bond Index 349% 7.3% Gold 242% 5.9% 20 Years p.a. 9.6% 7.9% Source: Pooled Pension Funds Surveys

10 OUTLOOK 10

11 WHAT S CURRENTLY PRICED INTO MARKETS? REAL EXCESS RETURN USA EURO JAPAN Equity Yield 3.14% 3.69% 3.37% Inflation Protected Bond Yield 0.17% -0.68% -0.56% Real Excess Return 2.97% 4.37% 3.93% 11

12 VALUATIONS EQUITIES ATTRACTIVE VERSUS BONDS WORLD EQUITY MARKET VALUATION GERMAN BUND YIELDS 12

13 CARRY, ROLL-DOWN AND SPREAD COMPRESSION Italian Yield Curve Spanish Yield Curve Irish Yield Curve German Yield Curve Yield Curves are very steep (due to global zero interest rate policy) Curves should continue to flatten ECB QE pushes down future rate expectations Steepest part of the curve is 7 to 15 year this is where roll-down is most attractive Spreads have tightened from extremes, but carry remains attractive, and spreads should tighten further Italy: Spread to Bunds Spain: Spread to Bunds Ireland: Spread to Bunds Bond portfolios currently positioned to benefit from: Carry; Roll-down; Spread Compression; Flatter Yield Curve 13

14 US RELATIVE TO GLOBAL EQUITIES US Market valuation vs. World Equities Central Bank Balance Sheets BoJ balance sheet target ECB balance sheet target S&P Relative Price relative: new high not confirmed by momentum US market valuation is stretched relative to global market US Federal Reserve is near the end of its balance sheet expansion, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank only beginning Negative divergence indicates waning appetite for US equities relative to rest of world 14

15 VALUATIONS RELATIVE TO THE WORLD MARKET Europe Equity Market vs. World Equities Japan Equity Market vs. World Equities European and Japanese equities trade at a significant discount to global equities 15

16 ACTION FROM THE ECB TO IMPROVE FUNDING FOR SME s EU Inflation Money Supply and Business Confidence Eurozone Headline Inflation Eurozone Core Inflation ECB Bank Lending Survey Demand for loans Loan Demand: Enterprises Housing Consumer Credit Eurozone inflation far below ECB target and falling But Money Supply growth should lead to improving business confidence And loan demand is finally beginning to expand 16

17 IS ECB ACTION STARTING TO HAVE AN IMPACT? Italian and Spanish Lending Rates Eurozone Economy Stabilising Italian Credit Conditions and Investment Periphery bond yields have fallen, and bank lending rates are now following Consumer confidence is consistent with more retail and durable goods spending Easing bank lending conditions has a notable impact on investment 17

18 EUROPEAN RECOVERY POTENTIAL US vs. European Earnings Europe Technical Analysis MSCI Europe ex UK vs MSCI World: Price lows in 2012 were not confirmed by momentum, a pattern that has been repeated in recent months 18

19 WHY JAPAN? ATTRACTIVE VALUATION, MACRO & TECHNICAL Jobs-Applicants ratio Average Earnings yoy Abenomics is all about ending deflation The labour market is tight, and getting tighter Value of Exports: Total; China; EU; US This should lead to wage hikes, boosting domestic demand Currency weakness is having an impact on exports 19

20 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - JAPAN Japanese equities technical support And currency should add momentum JPY/USD FX Rate: Long-term downtrend broken 20

21 CENTRAL BANKS AND EQUITY MARKETS US JAPAN Fed Balance Sheet Size S&P Index BoJ Balance Sheet Size Topix Index Fed s Balance Sheet will flat-line from here, the BoJ s will continue to expand rapidly, and the ECB s will also expand 21

22 APPENDIX 22

23 MERRION CASH FUND PERFORMANCE UPDATE AT Merrion 3 Mth Euribor 1 Month 0.0% 0.0% Year to date 0.0% 0.0% 1 Year 0.1% 0.1% 3 Years p.a. 0.5% 0.2% 5 Years p.a. 0.5% 0.5% 10 Years p.a. 1.5% 1.5% Source: MIM & Bloomberg Designed to provide capital security for investors. May also be used as a short-term safehaven by investors in times of market uncertainty. It invests in secure bank or building society deposits and money market instruments such as short-dated government bonds. Rates of return achievable will remain low given that interest rates will not rise for the foreseeable future due to subdued global growth and fiscal austerity. 23

24 MERRION LONG DATED BOND FUND The Long-Dated Bond Fund is designed as an investment vehicle to meet long term pension fund liabilities. It invests primarily in longer dated Eurozone Government Fixed Interest securities. PERFORMANCE UPDATE AT Merrion Average Merrill >10 Yr 1 Month 6.1% 6.2% 6.2% 3 Months 12.7% 12.7% 12.6% 1 Year 31.5% 31.1% 31.5% 3 Years p.a. 17.9% 16.9% 17.3% 5 Years p.a. 12.3% 11.2% 11.4% 10 Years p.a. 7.7% 7.4% 7.3% DISTRIBUTION OF ASSETS AT Merrion Merrill >10 Yr <15 Years 34.3% 38.9% Years 21.8% 19.8% Years 9.8% 17.7% Years 29.3% 17.0% Gross Redemption Yield on the portfolio is 1.6% Fund duration is currently 14.0 years, versus the benchmark duration of 13.9 years Fund is overweight periphery bonds, underweight core Portfolio is currently positioned to benefit from: Carry Roll-down Spread Compression Flatter Yield Curve > 30 Years 4.8% 6.6% Total 16.3% 10.5% 24

25 MERRION INVESTMENT TEAM STRUCTURE INVESTMENT PROCESS Valuation Analysis Macro Analysis Technical Analysis Investment Consultants Merrion Group Quantitative Analysis Fixed Income Analyst Macro Analyst Portfolio Managers Research Analysts 25

26 Merrion Investment Managers Guild House (2 nd Floor) Guild Street IFSC Dublin 1 Phone: Fax: Past performance may not be a reliable guide to future performance. Investments may fall as well as rise. Funds may be affected by changes in currency exchange rates. Merrion Capital Investment Managers (Trading as Merrion investment Managers) is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. 26

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