FX Weekly Market Letter
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1 FX Weekly Market Letter FI/FX Research - Monday, May 12, 2014 s Last 1 mth 3 mths 6 mths 12 mths Currencies EUR/USD EUR/GBP EUR/CHF EUR/NOK EUR/PLN EUR/RUB EUR/SEK USD/RUB USD/JPY GBP/USD Historical Performance Source: Swedbank CHANGES (%) Last 1 w eek 3 mths YTD Currencies EUR/USD EUR/GBP EUR/CHF EUR/NOK EUR/SEK EUR/PLN EUR/RUB USD/RUB USD/JPY GBP/USD RUBBASK Commodities (USD) CRB Commodity Index WTI Crude Brent Crude Gasoil Natural Gas Gold Silver Nickel Tin Copper Milling Wheat (EUR) Equity Indices S&P 500 (USD) STOXX Europe 600 (EUR) MICEX Index (RUB) OMX Baltic Benchm. GI (EUR) NOMINAL VALUES Last 3m ago 12m ago EUR Interest Rates 10-year Interest Rate Sw ap year Interest Rate Sw ap month Euribor Source: Bloomberg The ECB signals a possible rate cut in June Busy week ahead in terms of economic data releases one-month EUR/GBP target revised down from 0.82 to 0.81 Recent Developments Last week brought additional confirmation of soft central banks. The ECB indicated that there will probably be a rate cut in June, while US Fed chair Janet Yellen adopted a dovish tone in her testimony before the US Congress. These developments also support the strong performance of risky assets. In the US, it was relatively quiet week in terms of economic data. The Markit US composite PMI figure for April was confirmed at Initial jobless claims were almost in line with expectations, arriving at 319,000 (325,000 expected). US economic data have been improving recently. However, the favorable inflation outlook is letting the Fed maintain its gradual tapering policy, which is putting pressure on the USD. In the eurozone, retail sales increased by 0.9% y/y in March, which was almost as expected. No other important macro data was released last week. The ECB meeting was in focus, but it offered no major surprises. The tone remained on the dovish side, and there is a clear risk of additional support measures in the coming months. Mr. Draghi said that the ECB is ready to act if needed and that the ECB is ready to consider unconventional instruments. He also said that the subdued inflation outlook is extending into the medium term, indicating that more support measures are likely. There is a clear risk that the ECB s 2014 inflation forecast is overly optimistic and that the bank will have to lower that forecast in the coming months. The next possibility to do so is the June meeting, at which time new forecasts will be published. In the UK, the Markit composite PMI increased to 59.2 for April from March s Industrial production for March was in line with consensus, arriving at 2.3% y/y. Manufacturing production surprised somewhat with a 3.3% y/y increase in March (2.9% expected). We have lowered our one-month EUR/GBP estimate from 0.82 to 0.81 to reflect the growth momentum in the UK, which is being confirmed by the data. The Bank of England left its main policy rate unchanged at 0.5% last week. Looking Ahead This week, market-moving events will include several US, UK and eurozone economic data releases. one-month EUR/USD target remains unchanged at The EUR/USD made a clear correction downwards after the ECB s comments raised the likelihood of supportive action in June. This was not the first time Mr. Draghi mentioned interventions, but his statements last week were different in that the markets reacted. Mr. Draghi said that the FX rate is very important for price stability and that the stronger euro in inflation context is cause for serious concern. Upside to the EUR/USD is probably limited given the ECB s comments about EUR strength and the bank s willingness to ease in June. In addition, the series of US economic data for April that will be released this week should provide support for the USD against the EUR. Nevertheless, according to the CFTC statistics, EUR/USD net long positions increased slightly last week (see chart on page 2). FX Weekly Market Letter 12.May.2014 page 1/5
2 Government Bond Yields Germany 10Y France 10Y United States 10Y Spain 10Y Italy 10Y 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% EUR/USD Speculative Positions 100, , , , , , , EUR net long spec. positions, contracts (lhs) EUR/USD (rhs) one-month EUR/SEK target remains unchanged at On May 13, the inflation rate for April will be published. The figure will be closely watched by the market. Consensus expects the CPI to fall by 0.1% for April. The fact that inflation is low in Sweden should not be a surprise, but if there is a clear disappointment, as in March, the SEK might be affected. The inflation rate will probably remain a concern for at least the next few months. Therefore, we expect the Riksbank to cut its policy rate by 25bp in July. In the United States, retail sales data for April will be announced on May 13. Retail sales rebounded in March, and consensus expects an additional improvement. The figure is expected to increase by 0.4% m/m for April from 1.1% m/m for March. In addition, inflation figures for April will be published on May 15. Core CPI is expected to increase by 1.7% y/y, while headline CPI is expected to increase by 2.0% y/y (1.7% y/y and 1.5% y/y in March, respectively). The preliminary version of the University of Michigan confidence survey should provide more information regarding consumer sentiment in the US. The survey will be published on May 16 and is expected to increase slightly from April s 84.1 to In Europe, the eurozone s Q1 GDP growth will be announced on May 15. Consensus expects the figure to accelerate from 0.5% in Q to 1.1% in Q The EU27 new car registration data for April will be published on May 16. In March, the figure increased by 10.6% y/y. In the United Kingdom, the focus will be on the Bank of England s May Inflation Report, which will be released on May 14. There might be an indication of a shift towards an earlier rate hike owing to the strength of UK economic data. Unemployment data will be published on the same day. The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 6.8% for March from February s 6.9%. We expect the unemployment rate to decline further. In Russia, inflation continues to rise on the RUB weakness, as it accelerated to 7.3% y/y in April from 6.9% y/y in March. Food, non-food goods and services have been the main contributors to rising inflation. The Central Bank of Russia has been tightening monetary policy to control depreciation and, thereby, inflation. Although inflation has been accelerating, the central bank s actions should eventually have an effect. However, if the conflict in Ukraine escalates and sanctions towards Russia worsen, the RUB could depreciate even more. Russia s PMI for April declined to Surprisingly, Russia s trade balance has not been affected by the geopolitical problems, as exports reached USD 46.9bn in March, which was above consensus of USD 44.8bn. On May 15, the Q1 GDP growth rate will be published, which consensus expects to arrive at 0.8% y/y. The National Bank of Poland kept with its policy rate on hold, as expected. The central bank has promised to keep rates unchanged until at least September The inflation figures for April will be announced on May 14. Consensus expects the CPI to increase by 0.7% y/y. Q1 preliminary GDP growth will be published on May 15 and is expected to show an increase of 3.1% y/y. Chart 4 FX Weekly Market Letter 12.May.2014 page 2/5
3 Key Events Ahead Monday May 12, 2014 RU Exports/Imports MAR 44.8B/26.9B 36.5B/24.1B JN 01:50 BoP Current Account Balance / Trade Balance BoP Basis MAR 347.7B/ B FR 08:30 Bank of France Bus. Sentiment APR 99 SW 08:30 SEB House Price Indicator 612.7B/ B DK 09:00 CPI (MoM)/(YoY) APR 0.1%/0.6% 0.1%/0.4% IN 14:00 CPI (YoY) APR 8.50% 8.31% SE 15:00 Riksbank s af Jochnic panel discussion on "The importance of saving for private individuals, companies and society" US 20:00 Monthly Budget Statement APR $112.5B -$36.9B Tuesday May 13, 2014 UK 01:01 BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) APR 0.2% -1.7% CH 07:30 Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) APR 17.7% 17.6% CH 07:30 Retail Sales (YoY) APR 12.2% 12.2% CH 07:30 Industrial Production (YoY) APR 8.9% 8.8% GE 08:00 Wholesale Price Index (MoM)/(YoY) APR 0.0%/-1.7% FR 08:45 Current Account Balance MAR -1.4B SW 09:30 CPI (MoM)/(YoY) APR 0.3%/-0.2% 0.0%/-0.6% 0.2%/-0.2% SW 09:30 CPIF (MoM)/(YoY) APR 0.4%/0.5% 0.1%/0.0% 0.3%/0.4% IT 10:00 CPI EU Harmonized (YoY) APR F 0.6% 0.6% GE 11:00 ZEW Survey Current Situation/Expectations MAY 61.0/ /43.2 EMU 11:00 ZEW Survey Expectations MAY 61.2 PO 12:00 CPI EU Harmonized (MoM)/(YoY) APR 1.4%/-0.4% US 13:30 NFIB Small Business Optimism APR US 14:30 Retail Sales Advance (MoM)/Ex Auto and Gas APR 0.6%/0.5% 1.2%/1.0% US 14:30 Import Price Index (MoM)/(YoY) APR 0.3%/ 0.6%/-0.6% US 16:00 Business Inventories MAR 0.4% 0.4% SE 17:30 Wednesday May 14, 2014 Riksbank s Ekholm: How has the Swedish economy been affected by the recent years' economic crisis in Europe? NO Supplemental 2014 Budget (Structural Deficit) 140B 143B GE 08:00 CPI EU Harmonized (MoM)/(YoY) APR F -0.3%/1.1% -0.3%/1.1% SW 08:00 Prospera Inflation Expectations Money Market (1Y/2Y/5Y) MAY 1.0%/1.6%/ 1.8% JN 08:00 Machine Tool Orders YoY APR P 41.8% FR 08:45 CPI EU Harmonized (MoM)/(YoY) APR 0.5%/0.7% SP 09:00 CPI EU Harmonized (MoM)/(YoY) APR/APR F 0.6%/0.3% 1.6%/0.3% UK 10:30 ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths MAR 6.8% 6.9% EMU 11:00 Industrial Production SA (MoM) / WDA (YoY) MAR -0.2%/1.0% 0.2%/1.7% UK 11:30 Bank of England Inflation Report US 13:00 MBA Mortgage Applications w/e 5.3% SE 14:00 Riksbank s Flodén: The low rate of inflation should we be worried and can we do anything about it? PD 14:00 CPI (MoM)/(YoY) APR 0.3%/0.7% 0.1%/0.7% US 14:30 PPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM)/(YoY) APR 0.2%/1.4% 0.6%/1.4% FX Weekly Market Letter 12.May.2014 page 3/5
4 Thursday May 15, 2014 RU MAY GDP (YoY) 1Q A 0.8% 2.0% JN 01:50 GDP SA (QoQ) 1Q P 1.0% 0.2% JN 07:00 Consumer Confidence Index APR 37.5 FR 07:30 GDP (YoY)/(QoQ) 1Q P 0.8%0.3% 0.4%/1.4%/ GE 08:00 GDP (SA QoQ) / (WDA YoY) / (NSA YoY) 1Q P 0.7%/2.2%/ 1.3% SW 08:00 Mäklarstatistik Housing Price Data CZ 09:00 GDP (QoQ) / (YoY) 1Q A -0.4%/2.3% 1.8% / 1.2% SW 09:00 Valueguard Housing Price Data (MoM) / (YoY) APR 1.1%/9.2% HU 09:00 GDP (SA QoQ) / (NSA YoY) 1Q P 0.8%/2.6% 0.5% / 2.7% SW 09:30 Industry Capacity Utilisation / Industrial inventories 1Q 87.8% / 0.8% PD 10:00 GDP (YoY) / (QoQ) 1Q P 3.1%/0.9% 2.7%/0.5% NO 10:00 Trade Balance NOK APR 31.4B EMU 10:00 ECB Publishes Monthly Report SW 10:00 Business Sweden Export Managers Index IT 10:00 GDP WDA (QoQ) / (YoY) 1Q P 0.2%/-0.2% 0.1% / -0.9% SE 10:30 The Riksbank s risk survey spring 2014 PO 10:30 GDP (QoQ) / (YoY) 1Q P 0.6%/1.7% EMU 11:00 CPI (MoM) / (YoY) APR/APR F 0.2%/0.7% 0.9%/0.5% EMU 11:00 GDP (SA QoQ)/(SA YoY) 1Q A 0.4%/1.1% 0.2%/0.5% Riksbank s Ingves: Global liquidity regulation, SE 14:15 supervision and risk management US 14:30 Empire Manufacturing MAY US 14:30 CPI (MoM) / (YoY) APR 0.3%/2.0% 0.2% / 1.5% US 14:30 CPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM) / (YoY) APR 0.1%/1.7% 0.2%/1.7% US 14:30 Initial jobless claims / Continuing claims w/e 319K/2685K US 15:00 Total Net TIC Flows MAR $167.7B US 15:15 Industrial Production (MoM) APR 0.0% 0.7% US 15:15 Capacity Utilization APR 79.1% 79.2% US 16:00 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook MAY US 16:00 NAHB Housing Market Index MAY Friday May 16, 2014 US 01:00 Fed's Yellen Speaks to U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington CH 03:45 MNI May Business Indicator MAY JN 06:30 Industrial Production (MoM)/(YoY) MAR F 0.3%/7.0% JN 06:30 Capacity Utilization (MoM) MAR -2.6% EMU 08:00 EU27 New Car Registrations APR 10.6% EMU 11:00 Trade Balance SA / NSA MAR n.a./16.0b 15.0B/13.6B US 14:30 Housing Starts / (MoM) APR 983K/3.9% 946K/2.8% US 14:30 Bulding Permits / (MoM) APR 1015K/1.8% 997K/-1.7% US 15:55 Univ. of Michigan Confidence MAY P FX Weekly Market Letter 12.May.2014 page 4/5
5 Contacts LC&I Markets Estonia LC&I Markets Latvia LC&I Markets Lithuania Marek Berkman Analyst Information to the customer This research report has been compiled by Swedbank Large Corporates & Institutions business area within Swedbank AB (publ) (Swedbank), registered address Stockholm, regulated by Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen). This research report is not and should not be construed as an investment advice or investment recommendation. It is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any currencies or financial instruments and shall not be construed as an investment, tax, financial or legal advice. The information in this document has been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable, but for the correctness or completeness of which we assume no liability. It is recommended that recipients of this document supplement the basis for their decision-making with any material that might be considered necessary. Views expressed in this document represent our present opinions but may change. We reserve the right to modify the views expressed herein at any time without notice, as well as the right not to update this information or discontinue it s publication without notice. Swedbank accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss or damages of any kind arising from the use of this document. Investments in financial products are subject to market risk. Changes in rates of exchange, interest rates and market prices may have adverse effect on the value of the investments There is a risk that there will be a loss on the investment. Prices rise and fall and past performance is no assurance of future performance. Analysis and presentations in this research report are based on standard valuation methodology as well as publicly available information. Recipients should be aware that Swedbank, its subsidiaries and/or employees from time to time may have positions or holdings or otherwise have financial interests in the investments directly or indirectly referred to herein. Swedbank have implemented internal instructions and measures mainly by keeping departments and units with conflicting interests separated - in order to prevent conflicts of interest to damage the interests of Swedbank s clients. This document must not be published or distributed in the United States or to other countries or persons to which publication or distribution is prohibited. The material may not be reproduced without the consent of Swedbank. In Latvia this research report is disseminated by Swedbank AS, registered address Balasta dambis 1a, Riga, LV-1048, regulated by the Financial and Capital Markets Commission of the Republic of Latvia. In Estonia this research report is disseminated by Swedbank AS, Liivalaia 8, Tallinn, Estonia, regulated by the Financial Supervision Authority of Estonia. In Lithuania this research report is disseminated by Swedbank AB, Konstitucijos av. 20A, LT Vilnius, Lithuania, regulated by the Bank of Lithuania. FX Weekly Market Letter 12.May.2014 page 5/5
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