Export Potential for Organics opportunities and barriers A SNAPSHOT
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1 opportunities and barriers Export Potential for Organics A SNAPSHOT Export Potential for Organics opportunities and barriers RIRDCInnovation for rural Australia Export Potential for Organics opportunities and barriers, RIRDC publication number 06/061. Organics is one of the fastest growing sectors in the global food industry. The market for organic products is valued at A$38 billion. Introduction The Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation (RIRDC) has administered a dedicated Organic Systems research and development program since As a component of that Program David McKinna et al has produced the report Export Potential for Organics opportunities and barriers which focuses on identifying global market opportunities for Australian organic products. The publication identifies opportunities for organic exports and investigates impediments to the Australian organic industry in accessing those export markets. Overview Organics is one of the fastest growing sectors in the global food industry, experiencing double digit growth in most developed markets, compared with 1 2% growth rates for conventional food products. Demand for organics outstrips supply in most markets and for most categories. The market for organic products is valued at A$38 billion (IFOAM, 2005). The United States and European Union are by far the largest markets for organic products at this present time accounting for 97% of global expenditure. There are also emerging markets in Asia which are growing at around 20% a year albeit from a small base.
2 Demand for organics Demand is driven by two factors: emotional rational 1 Emotional factors: perceptions of naturalness getting back to basics environmental sustainability environmental friendliness animal welfare 2 Rational factors: concerns about long-term health benefits specific allergies and health complaints better taste Organic products on a Hong Kong supermarket shelf Predictors of demand for organics are: the larger the market, the larger the organic niche sub-segment and the bigger the demand Affluence: organic foods sell at a premium, thus demand is greater among affluent consumers Health consciousness and food safety: health consciousness and concern about food safety are major drivers Environmental consciousness: demand for organic products is stronger in environmentally conscious countries, such as Germany which has very stringent environmental regulations Supply chains: the availability of dedicated organic supply chains increases the availability of organic products leading to increased demand Sophistication of the retail sector: higher end supermarkets are driving the demand for organic foods by creating organic sections and strongly promoting products as a point of differentiation Strong local industry: there is a more developed demand where there is a strong local organic production industry and tradition The inclination to buy organic is greater for products that: have heavy use of chemicals in their conventional production systems are eaten with a minimum of preparation have natural and defined taste and flavour profiles, and are eaten for enjoyment are seen to be healthy Taiwan supermarket stocking organic products
3 Key organic products for Australia Cereals and cereal products: Sugar: Meat and animal products: Dairy products: Honey: Dried fruit: Fruits: Vegetables: Fruit and vegetable drinks: Wine: Skincare products: Infant foods: Other processed foods: Animal feeds: Australia is a globally competitive producer and demand consistently outstrips supply. Australia will be competitive in baked products, noodles and pasta. Australia is a cost competitive producer with a growing demand for organic sugar. Australia is a globally competitive producer and with key export markets. Australia s FMD and BSE free status provides major market advantages over competitors. There is a growing demand for organic dairy products, but this may not be a viable opportunity due to distance constraints. Strong competition exists in the European markets from local European producers who have a distance advantage. This is popular in Continental Europe and the UK, but does have a significant competitive cost disadvantage. Australia is traditionally a major player in conventional dried fruit, but is increasingly losing market share due to lower cost producers such as Turkey, Greece and Iran. There is a potential export market for citrus (navel and easy peelers), apples, pears and stoned and tropical fruits, but is not competitive for commodity fruits and is becoming less so for tropical and stoned fruits. Offers limited opportunities because of perishability, the treatment to increase the shelf life and phytosanitary requirements in export markets which can negate organic status. There is an opportunity for Australia to be a major supplier of organic fruit and vegetable drinks, particularly in the Southeast Asian region. Provides excellent prospects because of the great success of the Australian wine industry in the UK, the US and increasingly in Continental Europe. There is growing demand because of the desire to use natural products on the skin, and the growing trend for men to use skincare products. Is of great interest, particularly in China because of the one-child policy, where many parents spend a lot to give their child the best. Provides major export opportunities for processed organic foods such as canned & frozen vegetables, sauces & syrups, spreads & jams, and oils & vinegars. These products have greater shelf stability and easier market access over fresh products. However, Australia s limited organic processing capability could constrain export potential. There is a strong demand for organic animal feed products such as hay, pellets etc. Australia has a competitive advantage in this area. Key barriers facing Australian organic industry Cost: Distance: Market Access: Phytosanitary requirements: Climate and seasonality: Small size of industry and participants: Low production volumes: Quality inconsistencies and irregular supply: Fragmented nature of the industry: Short shelf life and high perishability of some organic categories: Shortage of certified processing facilities: Conversion can be slow and costly: Lack of market intelligence and statistical data: There is a cost disadvantage compared to South Africa, South America, China, Thailand and other South East Asian countries. These countries set the floor price for conventional products which increases the size of the premium on Australian organics. Freight costs and shelf life are key constraints to success in export markets for many products, such as fruit and vegetables. Trade barriers and compliance variations between the standards of different markets are key concerns, particularly in South Korea and China. Forward planning before commencement of production is the key. Many countries insist that fresh imported product be sprayed and fumigated, which nullifies or compromises its organic status. Subject to seasonal fluctuations more than conventional. Producers need to have a certain turnover and level of expertise to be viable as an export operation. Organic farms in many categories may show a decreased yield and are more susceptible to pests and disease. The Australian organic industry lacks the critical mass necessary to meet the demands of global supermarkets. While Australia has one national standard for organics, the industry is fragmented and weakened by an overly complicated certification process, and seven independent certification agencies, each with their own logo. This constrains the ability to successfully transport fresh product to distant international markets. The majority of major food companies have been reluctant to invest in organic processing because of difficulties relating to supply and quality inconsistencies, as well as increased compliance costs. For many categories, organic conversion can be a slow and costly exercise and can take up to three years for certification to be granted. Without this information, it is likely that organic companies seeking to enter export markets may fail because they do not have access to this knowledge.
4 Key export market assessment United States Assessment 290 million 40% consume organics US$13 billion p.a. 20% p.a. 2% Mandatory controls on imports (National Organic Program - NOP) Organic imports US$1.5 billion (2002) Processed products, meat, beverages and spices Wine, lamb, processed shelf stable products and counter seasonal fresh produce Excellent Of those markets considered in this report, the US is the fifth-ranked market for Australian organic products in terms of percentage of total volume of exports. Key drivers: very large population, large percentage of very affluent consumers. Distance and strong competition from countries in Central and South America are problems. United Kingdom 60 million Continental Europe Hong Kong Hong Kong 75% purchase during the year US$1.84 billion (2004) 11% p.a. 2% EU Regulations 2092/91 & 1804/99 (Australia has third country status) 46% imported Cereals, animal products, meat, processed products, sugar, vegetables, wine. Shelf stable processed foods: baby food and hygiene products, dried fruit, nuts, flour, edible oils and wine. Seasonal windows for summer fruit. Organic meat experiencing highest growth in this market. Good The third-ranking market for Australia is the UK, consuming close to 20% of all Australian exports. Key drivers: Assessment affluence, sophistication and growing environmental and bio-ethical sensitivity by consumers, massive growth of private label programs, comprehensive range of organic food available million (Continental EU 2004) Variable (highest in Scandinavian and Alpine countries, lowest in Southern Europe) Germany US$3.06 billion; Italy and France (US$1.5 billion each) % p.a. depending on country. Variable <1 2.4% EU Regulations 2092/91 & 1804/99 (Australia has third country status) 22-30% imports Cereals, animal products, meat, beverages, spices, processed products, drinks, juices, sugar, vegetables, fruit, nuts and wine. Opportunities in shelf stable processed foods: baby food and hygiene products, dried fruit, nuts, flour, edible oils and wine. Seasonal windows for summer fruit. Good Second greatest market area by volume for Australian organic products is Continental Europe; Germany and Assessment France are major consumers. Demand is driven by affluence; a sophisticated consumer base; and concern about chemicals and environmental sustainability. Australia is already a major exporter to these markets. Distance is a major constraint. 6.8 million Low US$50 million 20-25% p.a. No mandatory controls 95% imported Cereals, animal products, meat, drinks/juices, processed products, vegetables, fruit, nuts, wine Limited by market size. Fresh produce, cereals, drinks and juice, wine, red meat Fair Proximity to market is a key factor. Hong Kong is a small but affluent market. Competition from low cost producers of conventional products, such as South Africa, increases the price premium for Australian organics and dampens demand.
5 Key export market assessment China Japan 1.3 billion Low US$150 million N/A No mandatory controls on organics at this stage. Predominantly domestic supply Sugar Long-term potential, trade barriers problematic. Unlikely to be competitive in fresh produce. Opportunities in processed and frozen foods, dairy, cereals, wine, and infant and baby formula. Processing inputs such as sugar, cereals. Short term: poor; Long term: good. In the longer term China will become a major market for organic foods, but Australia will not be able to compete with standard products that are produced in China, which include most fruit and vegetable products. May be able to seek out niches for certain other organic products. The negotiation of a Free Trade Agreement with China, which is believed to be inevitable, will fuel demand for organic foods in the longer term. The best prospects for China are likely to be processed organic foods. 127 million High Green Food US$3 billion; organic - US$250 million organic 70% p.a. (influenced by regulatory changes). Refer to the Japan section of the full report, starting on page 28, for detailed explanation of the Japanese organic market. 1% JAS mandatory controls on imports - Australia has equivalency agreement Cereals, animal products, meat, beverages, spices, drinks/juices, processed products, sugar, nuts and wine Well developed market. Fresh produce constrained by phytosanitary requirements. Opportunities in beef and lamb, drinks/juices, processed products, e.g. soy-based products, baby foods, corn-based products, grains and flours, edible oils and meat. Excellent Overall, Japan is the biggest market for Australian product in volume terms, accounting for a third of all Australia s exports of organic food and beverage products. Key drivers; concern about health, overuse of chemicals in traditional agriculture, etc. Japan s strict phytosanitary regulations impede the supply of much fresh produce. Longer term, there are likely to be strong opportunities for Australian organic red meat. Taiwan Taiwan imports: 22 million Low US$44.5 million 20% p.a. No mandatory controls on organics Cereals, meat, processed products Cereals, meat, processed products including infant and children s foods, fruit and vegetable juices, and processed cereals, e.g. noodles Fair Taiwan is an emerging market in which the United States currently dominates. Expansion of organic retail chains are evidence of growing demand.
6 Key export market assessment South Korea 48.4 million High US$300 million 30% p.a. NAQS & KFDA have mandatory controls Market access only possible for processed products. Fresh produce (domestic); processed (imports) Animal products. Limited to processed foods by trade barriers. Opportunities for variety of processed products, e,g. baby foods, noodles, etc. Fair The opportunity in Korea is judged to be limited. Singapore Singapore 4.3 million low US$4.7 million 20% p.a. No mandatory controls 95% imported Cereals, animal products, beverages, spices, drinks/juices, processed products, fruit, nuts, wine. Limited by market size. Opportunities for chilled and fresh products, e.g. milk, juice, dairy, perishable fruits. Fair Singapore is a small market which is reliant on imports. Its proximity to Australia creates an opportunity to export fresh organic products. Singaporeans are price sensitive so the premium on Australian organics is likely to be the greatest barrier for wider consumer acceptance Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation. All rights reserved. Export Potential for Organics opportunities and barriers SNAPSHOT Short Report 141 Project No. MCK-3A The information contained in this publication is intended for general use to assist public knowledge and discussion and to help improve the development of sustainable industries. The information should not be relied upon for the purpose of a particular matter. Specialist and/or appropriate legal advice should be obtained before any action or decision is taken on the basis of any material in this document. The Commonwealth of Australia, Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation, the authors or contributors do not assume liability of any kind whatsoever resulting from any person s use or reliance upon the content of this document. This publication is copyright. However, RIRDC encourages wide dissemination of its research, providing the Corporation is clearly acknowledged. For any other enquiries concerning reproduction, contact the Publications Manager on phone Researcher Contact Details David McKinna et al Pty Ltd Rear 131 Victoria Avenue, Albert Park Vic 3206 Phone: Fax: david.mckinna@davidmckinna.com.au Web: RIRDC Contact Details Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation Level 2, 15 National Circuit BARTON ACT 2600 PO Box 4776 KINGSTON ACT 2604 Phone: Fax: rirdc@rirdc.gov.au. Web: To order publications from RIRDC visit or phone
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