CO 2 reduction potentials for passenger cars until 2020

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "CO 2 reduction potentials for passenger cars until 2020"

Transcription

1 CO 2 reduction potentials for passenger cars until 22 Management Summary 11351

2

3 Table of Contents 3 Table of Contents 1 Summary Introduction and Methodological Approach Automotive Environment Analysis (WP1) Technological and Economic Potential Analysis (WP2) Development Scenarios of CO 2 Reduction Potentials (WP3) Technology Scenarios for the Development of the Reference Vehicles Lower Technological Limits of the Fleet CO 2 Reduction Potential Validation of Results by Expert Interviews (WP4) Derivation of CO 2 Targets (WP5.1) Strategic Implications for the German Automotive Industry (WP5.2)... 19

4 1 Summary 4 1 Summary In accordance with the objectives of the European Commission, the CO 2 emissions in Europe should be reduced from 141 g CO 2 /km in the year 21 to 95 g CO 2 /km in 22. This corresponds to a reduction of overall 32.6 % or 4.6 g CO 2 /year and represents a challenge for the European automotive industry. The present study investigates which CO 2 reduction potential can be achieved in the European new vehicle market in light of a technical and economical realistic background. Furthermore, measures and instruments which are necessary to prevent possible conflicts of interests are identified. In a first step, the European passenger car market was analysed and the composition of small (SEG-1), medium (SEG-2) and large sized cars (SEG-3) as well as the concerning drive train version, like gasoline, diesel, LPG/CNG and electric, were determined as status quo and the change until 22 was forecasted. Till the year 22, forecasts show a market share of battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, which will change the market composition with an impact on the CO 2 fleet emissions. In the next step, all technological measures to reduce the CO 2 emissions were analysed and aggregated to technology packages gradually building upon one another with and without electrification of the drive train, in consideration of the reciprocal effects. Since the corresponding costs for the technology packages can t be charged completely to the vehicle manufacturers, they have to be passed on to the end customers. The performed cost/benefit analysis shows for the private and commercial end users the timeframe, when an amortization takes place, considering the individual driving performance and the corresponding fuel savings per technology package. As long as the amortisation is reached within 5-7 years, it is expected that the customers will decide for this technology. Within this study, the different framework conditions are considered within a conservative, a realistic and a progressive scenario. These differ especially concerning the development of fuel prices and the relation of the market price of the technology to the manufacturing costs. Within the realistic scenario, the expected CO 2 fleet emissions reach the level of g CO 2 /km. Thereby, the end users invest in average approx. 1,9 (market price) in technologies, which amortise after a holding period of 6 years. The resulting gap of 8 to 13 g CO 2 /km needs to be reduced by the industry e.g. using eco innovation or flexibility measures. The additional cost to meet the 95 g CO 2 /km target value totals to approx. 65 to 95 (manufacturing cost level) for the vehicle manufacturers. In the conservative scenario, this means a below-average fuel price development and an unchanged market distribution towards 21, the cost/benefit relation for the end user is lower, so that the target value of 95 g CO 2 /km would clearly not be reached. Whereas, in the progressive scenario, based on an above-average fuel price increase, a compliance of the 95 g CO 2 /km target is possible. The remaining gap would amount up to approx. 8 g CO 2 /km and could be closed for example with eco innovations.

5 1 Summary 5 The assumption of an equipment rate of 1 % for the most developed technology packages with the highest costs and the forecasted market distribution for 22 shows the theoretic maximum achievable CO 2 reduction potential. For the conventional technology path (3C), the emissions could be reduced to 9 CO 2 /km on average and for the hybrid technology path (3H) to 78 g CO 2 /km. The average technology manufacturing costs (material, manufacturing and development without distribution and VAT) per optimized vehicle aggregate for the conventional path to 2,687 on average and for the hybrid path to 4,981. Taking only the technical measures with the best cost/benefit ratio into account, it is possible to achieve the 95 g CO 2 /km target value for 2, of additional manufacturing cost. All in all, from the technological and economical considerations regarding the CO 2 reduction potentials it becomes apparent, that it is possible to reach the target value from a technological perspective using diverse technologies. However, the achievement of the needed high market penetration of fuel saving technologies will be particularly an economical challenge. Since the targets set by the EU clearly place the automotive industry under pressure, and since the pressure is not equally effecting all industry players, selected flexibility measures offer the opportunity to accelerate the development of needed technologies and incentivize advanced innovation. Here, super credits, eco-innovations, the credit/debit system and banking/borrowing, as well as emissions certificates can be taken into account. Additionally, the passenger car market can be controlled by various fiscal measures related to CO 2 emissions.

6 2 Introduction and Methodological Approach 6 2 Introduction and Methodological Approach In the white paper entitled A Roadmap for Moving to a Competitive Low Carbon Economy in 25, the European Commission (EC) defined its future vision for a sustainable and environmentally-friendly economy. The white paper specifies five core measures which will help to realize this vision, essentially focusing on emission reductions and efficiency improvements in all sectors of the economy. A central lever for the measures is the reduction of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, which contribute to global warming. Following the energy and manufacturing sectors, road traffic currently produces approx. 23 % (14 % passenger and 9 % freight traffic) of all CO 2 emissions in the European Union (EU). In the year 21, the CO 2 fleet emissions were recorded for the first time by the European Environmental Agency and determined to 141 g CO 2 /km. The CO 2 limits for passenger cars started to gradually come into effect on January 1, 212. By 215, the average CO 2 emission levels for the new passenger car fleet in Europe must be reduced to 13 g CO 2 /km (-7.8 % to 21), and an average level of 95 g CO 2 /km is under consideration for 22 (-32.6 % to 21). The actually CO 2 target values a vehicle manufacturer has to keep is coupled to the average weight of its vehicle fleet. If an OEM exceeds the mass specific limits, penalties are imposed due to the level of overrun. In Germany, the automotive industry typically offers of a very wide portfolio of vehicles, so that large, heavy and highly motorized vehicles cause the highest pressure to act on emission reduction. In order to assess which CO 2 levels for the new passenger car fleet in Europe are realistic from a technical and economic point of view and which measures and instruments are necessary to avoid conflicts of interests, the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology in Germany (BMWi) assigned the Institute for Automotive Engineering at the RWTH Aachen University (Institut für Kraftfahrzeuge ika) to perform the study at hand. The methodological approach is structured in different working packages (WPs). In WP1, the environment of the automotive industry is analysed and a detailed overview of CO 2 emission regulations for passenger cars in Europe, the USA and Japan is presented, along with the current and expected future development of the EU market size and the corresponding fleet composition. In WP2, the status quo of technologies is defined. Therefore, a portfolio of measures to reduce the CO 2 emissions for gasoline and diesel drive trains is created. Based on that, the single measures are analysed due to possible interactions with each other (WP3) and assembled to development scenarios stepwise building up on each other, according to the expected technological and economical application probability. For the validation of the results (WP4), interviews with experts of the automotive industry, as a primary data collection, are performed. Concluding (WP5), the CO 2 fleet emissions for the year 22 are derived, taking the technical and economical realistic framework conditions into account. Based on these results, strategic implications for the European automotive industry and politics are derived.

7 3 Automotive Environment Analysis (WP1) 7 3 Automotive Environment Analysis (WP1) The automotive industries in the core markets, Europe, USA and Japan, need to adapt to tighter CO 2 emission and fuel consumption regulations in the future. The official limits have to be considered relative to their appropriate test cycle. A standardized driving cycle is currently being developed through the work on the Worldwide Harmonized Light Duty Test Procedure (WL). Globally, the European Union has the most ambitious future targets for fleet CO 2 emission requirements. Japan closely follows, however the USA lags behind. The analysis of the current market composition shows that the percentage of small vehicles is higher in Europe than in Germany. The expected trend for both markets is a further shift towards small vehicles. Otherwise, a slight growth is expected for SUVs and vans. As for fuel types, the EU has a significantly higher share of diesel vehicles than Germany, which is however expected to exhibit growth in the share of diesel vehicles by 22. As for electric vehicles, it is estimated that approx. 5 % of the vehicles sold in Germany, and approx. 6 % of those sold in Europe in 22 will have electrified drive trains. These percentages include plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles with range extenders, in addition to battery-powered vehicles. The average CO 2 emissions of new passenger cars sold in Europe in 21 was 141 g CO 2 /km. While analyzing the CO 2 emissions of vehicles in Europe, it emerged that the sports, luxury, SUV, and upper-class vehicle segments were still far from meeting their respective 215 CO 2 limits. OEMs with fleets mainly in the smaller and medium-sized vehicle segments are relatively closer to meeting the limits. However, OEMs which have a broad fleet portfolio as well as those with a focus on the medium- and large-sized segments are further away from meeting their emission targets. Taking the OEMs planning horizons and required development times into consideration, a European regulation for 22 should be defined between five and ten years in advance. Production cycles have significantly shortened in the past years, and are mainly dependent on budget, resources and economic conditions. A change of the vehicle platform occurs every six to eight years, while drive train cycles last between 1 and 15 years. The introduction of vehicle models and engines is postponed to reduce complexity and reduce the possibility of mistakes. From a technological point of view, the timeframe needed to realize series production and vehicle launch in the market strongly depends on complexity, and ranges between 18 months and five years. Therefore, all OEMs still have in general at least one model-cycle before the regulations come into effect. The key results from WP1 are graphically summarized in Fig. 3-1.

8 3 Automotive Environment Analysis (WP1) 8 Distribution of Drive Concepts Distribution of Vehicle Segments SEG-3 13% 11% SEG-2 ( Status quo 21 9% 3% 1% 1% 25% 11% Status quo 21 27% SEG-1 ( 6 % 5 % 3 % 1 % 3 % 1 % 1 % 1 % 1 % 3 % 8 % 11 % A B C D M J E F S Total SEG-1 SEG-2 SEG-3 Legend: Consolidation and Forecast 22 SEG-1 SEG-2 SEG-3 21 Consolidation and Forecast Legend: Gasoline Diesel 22 Gasoline Diesel Electric Other 24 % 2 % 18 % 27 % 43 % 4 % 45 % 6 % % 6% 88 % 3% 86 % 5% 39% 75 % 79 % 81 % 45% 7 % 54 % 59 % 52 % 52% 35 % 5% 58% 4% 38% SEG-1 (A, B) SEG-2 (C, D, M, J) 55% 4% 22 Electric Other 41% SEG-3 (E, F, S) CO 2 -Emissions 21 CO2-Emissions [g/km] Note: The circular area of a segment correlates with the market volume. SEG-1 (122 g CO 2 /km) A 1.5 B M C S SEG-3 (18 g CO 2 /km) M SEG-2 (15 g CO 2 /km) D E J F Mass M [kg] Fig. 3-1: Key findings of the environmental analysis for Europe [Reference: refer to full report]

9 4 Technological and Economic Potential Analysis (WP2) 9 4 Technological and Economic Potential Analysis (WP2) In the second working point, a meta-analysis is performed on the technological potential of individual measures to reduce CO 2 emissions along with their respective costs. The results are presented and quantified for six reference vehicles with gasoline and diesel engines, in three consolidated segments, according to Fig Segment SEG-1 (A,B) SEG-2 (C,D,M,J) SEG-3 (E,F,S) Market share 21* 36 % 57 % 4 % Share Weight Fuel type in SEG [kg] Consumption [l/1km] CO 2 [g/km] Cylinder capacity [l] Engine 69 % Gasoline 1, cylinder - 31 % Diesel 1, cylinder x 33 % Gasoline 1, cylinder - 67 % Diesel 1, cylinder x DI Transmission Manual, 5-Gear Manual, 5-Gear Manual, 6-Gear Manual, 6-Gear 25 % Gasoline 1, cylinder x Automatic, 6-Gear 75 % Diesel 1, cylinder x Automatic, 6-Gear Power [kw] Fig. 4-1: Technical specifications of the reference vehicles [Reference: refer to full report] * Gas-powered and electric vehicles (BEV & PHEV) not included Measures affecting fuel consumption can be split between those which reduce road resistance and others which increase the efficiency of energy conversion. Rolling-resistance reducing tyres, aerodynamic measures and lightweight design reduce the driving resistances, while engine-related measures such as drive train electrification and gearbox optimization increase the efficiency of energy conversion. Engine-related measures can be further split according to the technical conditions of gasoline and diesel engines. Moreover, overall measures which are independent from engine type were identified, specifically those related to thermodynamics. Analyzing these measures shows that not all technically options have an impact within the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC). This creates a limited future possibility for further Eco-innovations. In addition to the measures mentioned so far, the electric drive trains of battery-powered vehicles and plug-in hybrids are considered in a scenario analysis in the coming segments of this study. The technologies which are described in detail in the final report are summarized in an aggregated overview showing potential, costs, and effect on weight per segment in Fig. 4-2 and Fig The results stemming from the technological and economic potential analysis form the basis of the calculations regarding the overall CO 2 emission reduction potential by 22.

10 4 Technological and Economic Potential Analysis (WP2) 1 Engine Electrification Gearbox Comprehensive measures Driving resistances Technology Savings [%] Cost [ ] Weight [%] Gasoline Technologies SEG-1 SEG-2 SEG-3 Savings [%] Cost [ ] Weight [%] Savings [%] Cost [ ] Weight [%] Direct injection, homogenous Direct injection, Stratified fuel charge Downsizing (Step 1) Downsizing (Step 2) Downsizing (Step 3) Cooled-/ High-load- EGR HCCI / CAI n/a n/a n/a Variable Compression 7. 5 n/a n/a 7. 6 n/a Valve control - variable (VVT) Valve control - fully variable Cylinder deactivation Micro-Hybrid Mild-Hybrid 13. 1, , ,5 3. Full-Hybrid 25. 2, , , 8. Gearbox optimization / Downspeeding Automated transmission Continously variable transmission (CVT) Dual clutch gearbox /8/9-Gear automatic Friction reduction in the drive train Electrification of auxiliaries Thermal management Heat-energy recovery (Rankine-Cycle) Heat-energy recovery (Thermoelectric generator) Tyres with reduced rolling resistance Aerodynamic optimisation Aerodynamic design Lightweight constr. - light (body) Lightweight constr. - middle (body) Lightweight constr. - strong (body) , ,2-12. Lightweight constr. - components Development state: Series development available by 214 Series development Pre-development Fundamental research 222 Fig. 4-2: Overview of technologies to reduce CO 2 emissions from gasoline vehicles [Reference: refer to full report]

11 4 Technological and Economic Potential Analysis (WP2) 11 Engine Electrification Gearbox Driving resistances Comprehensive measures Technology Savings [%] SEG-1 SEG-2 SEG-3 Cost Weight Savings Cost Weight Savings Cost [ ] [%] [%] [ ] [%] [%] [ ] Weight [%] Downsizing (Step 2) Downsizing (Step 3) Combustion control EGR - improved cooling and flow Variable Compression 4. 5 n/a n/a 4. 6 n/a Cylinder deactivation Valve control - fully variable Micro-Hybrid Mild-Hybrid 9. 1, , ,5 3. Full-Hybrid 22. 2, , , 8. Gearbox optimization / Downspeeding Automated transmission Continously variable transmission (CVT) Dual clutch gearbox /8/9-Gear automatic Friction reduction in the drive train Electrification of auxiliaries Thermal management Heat-energy recovery (Rankine-Cycle) Heat-energy recovery (Thermoelectric generator) Tyres with reduced rolling-resistance Aerodynamic optimisation Aerodynamic design Lightweight constr. - light (body) Lightweight constr. - middle (body) Lightweight constr. - strong (body) Lightweight constr. - components Development state: Series development available by 214 Diesel Technologies , , Series development Pre-development Fundamental research 222 Fig. 4-3: Overview of technologies to reduce CO 2 emissions from diesel vehicles [Reference: refer to full report]

12 5 Development Scenarios of CO2 Reduction Potentials (WP3) 12 5 Development Scenarios of CO 2 Reduction Potentials (WP3) The goal of WP3 is to deduce the CO 2 reduction potential of the new passenger car fleet in Europe by 22, based on the environmental and technological analyses conducted in the previous working points. 5.1 Technology Scenarios for the Development of the Reference Vehicles As a first step, the previously-identified technologies are evaluated and clustered into Technology Packages () based on a structured methodology. The evaluation criteria are CO 2 reduction potential, manufacturing costs based on series production levels in 22 and the temporal availability of these technologies. The technologies are initially assessed by cost and CO 2 reduction potential (left part of Fig. 5-1). Next, they are clustered into five s based on their efficiency and temporal availability. The temporal availability is assessed based on the stages of development, where each of series production and predevelopment have two s, one for conventional and another for hybrid technologies. After clustering, it became clear that the mild- and full-hybrid technologies trail behind conventional measures from a cost-efficiency point of view. They achieve similar CO 2 reduction potentials, however at a higher cost than the combination of several smaller conventional measures, as shown in the rightmost graph of Fig Methodology Result Cost Cost E 1 > E 2 > E 3 E 3 E 2 E 1 1 2C 3C 2H 3H CO 2 -Reduction CO 2 -Reduction 1) Primary selection of technologies with high cost efficiency 2) Stepwise expansion of the balance shell of a up to higher cost 3) Consideration of the temporal availibility and technological interactions Evolutionary technologies 1 Temporal availibility 2C 2H 3C 3H Revolutionary technologies Fig. 5-1: Methodology and qualitative results of the formation of Technology Packages Eq. 5-1 allows the assessment of the individual reduction potential percentages of the s. This calculation methodology is also applied in similar studies. The product of the deltas of the relative CO 2 reduction potential is taken into account in the calculation. The different effects of the technologies (such as synergies and reduction effects) are considered by a cor-

13 5 Development Scenarios of CO2 Reduction Potentials (WP3) 13 rection factor α. The results of the calculations are validated by comparison with vehicle prototypes and expert interviews which were conducted. n P i = α i [1 j=1 (1-δ j )] Eq. 5-1 P i : CO 2 reduction potential of α i : Correction factor (dependent on and fuel type) δ j : Relative CO 2 reduction potential of a technology n: Number of technologies in the The results of the iteratively-performed calculations for the reference vehicles are mapped in Fig The mapping shows the possible technological developments for the reference vehicles SEG-3 Gasoline SEG-3 Diesel SEG-2 Gasoline SEG-2 Diesel SEG-1 Gasoline SEG-1 Diesel X % Market share EU 22 (forecast) 14 % SEG-2 Base Gasoline 1 % SEG-3 Base Gasoline 2 % SEG-3 Base Diesel CO2-Emissions [g/km] C G 2, C G 1, % 3H G 3C 4,585 D 2,35 1, SEG-1 Base Gasoline 1 G 1,425 2H G 3,15 1,5 12 % 2C D 1,49 1,1 SEG-1 Base Diesel 3C G 1 D 78 2H D 2,15 3H D 4,345 1,15 2,295 3,45 2H G 3,415 1,2 1,25 2C G 3H G 5,535 1,3 1 G 1,145 3C D 2,69 1,35 Mass [kg] 1,4 1,45 2C G 2,675 3C G 3,595 2H G 3,75 1 D 2C 85 D 3H 1,69 G 6,7 3H D 5,185 2H D 3C D 2,815 3,115 1,5 1,55 1,6 1 G 1,425 SEG-2 Base Diesel 2C D 1,975 1,65 3H D 5,64 35 % 1 D 1,35 1,7 a 1=.457 2H D 3,1 a 2=.333 1,75 1,8 Fig. 5-1: Visualization of the CO 2 reduction potentials based on vehicle mass and segment 5.2 Lower Technological Limits of the Fleet CO 2 Reduction Potential After the technological potential for the defined gasoline- and diesel-powered reference vehicles has been defined and examined, the results are be projected to the overall European market. The goal of this process is to define the limits of the CO 2 reduction potential as a maximum theoretically achievable fleet potential, assuming a 1 % market penetration of the defined Technology Packages. It is assumed overall that the OEMs will select the most cost-efficient technology configurations. The defined s therefore reflect the most probable average con-

14 5 Development Scenarios of CO2 Reduction Potentials (WP3) 14 figurations of heterogeneous OEMs. The scenarios are calculated for both, the current overall market in 21 as well as the expected market in 22. For 21, a base value of 141 g CO 2 /km is considered. Only taking the expected market changes into account, and without any technological measures, the CO 2 emissions are going to decrease to 132 g CO 2 /km by 22. This is based on the expected trend of shifting to smaller cars as well as a 6 % market share of electric cars and plug-in hybrids. The lowest limit of technologically feasible CO 2 reduction for 22 is 9 g CO 2 /km for cars with conventional drive train technologies (3C) and 78 g CO 2 /km for cars with Hybrid technologies (3H), assuming a 1 % implementation of the Technology Packages and the realization of the expected market composition. The average technology production costs (consisting of manufacturing, development and overhead costs) would be 2,687 for conventional drive trains and 4,981 for Hybrids. Market composition constant (21) Market scenario 22 CO2-Emissions [g/km] % 22, % 2 1 % 2, , , Conventional 98 12,5 path 81 1, Hybrid path 7,5 5,29 2,971 5, 95 2,5 1,879 2,713 Base Temporal availibility Ø Production cost per vehicle (gasoline+diesel) [ ] CO2-Emissions [g/km] ,5 (141) 1 % 1 1 % 2, 2 1 % , , Conventional 12,5 93 path 78 1, Hybrid path 7,5 4,981 2,942 5, 939 2,5 1,853 2,687 Basis Temporal availibility Ø Production cost per vehicle (gasoline+diesel) [ ] Market 21 Gasoline Diesel Others Electric Total SEG-1 25 % 11 % 2 % % 38 % SEG-2 19 % 38 % 1 % % 58 % SEG-3 1 % 3 % % % 4 % Total 45 % 52 % 3 % % 1 % Market 22 Gasoline Diesel Others Electric Total SEG-1 25 % 12 % 3 % 1 % 41 % SEG-2 14 % 35 % 2 % 4 % 55 % SEG-3 1 % 2 % % % 4 % Total 4 % 49 % 5 % 6 % 1 % CO 2-Emissions (conventional path) Ø Production cost per vehicle (conventional path) CO 2-Emissions (hybrid path) Ø Production cost per vehicle (hybrid path) Fig. 5-2 Development scenarios with 1 % Technology Package Implementation in 22

15 6 Validation of Results by Expert Interviews (WP4) 15 6 Validation of Results by Expert Interviews (WP4) In order to validate the interim results of working points 1, 2 and 3, interviews with experts from the German automotive industry were performed. The interviewed OEMs and suppliers verified the core results themselves, while their opinions on the details varied. The interviewees assessed the Technology Packages themselves, as well as their overall CO 2 reduction potential. They specifically reviewed the individual technologies and measures regarding their effectiveness and impact. It was noticed that each interviewee followed a company-specific technology strategy which was in line with his/her individual position and respective company s strengths. The interviewees deemed the specified time-horizons for series production and the temporal availability of the s to be realistic and achievable. Opinions on the manufacturing costs however varied among the interviewees. The costs of 1 were valued at slightly lower or slightly higher than the ones presented to them in the interview, whereas the costs of 2C and 3C were estimated to be almost equal to, or slightly higher than the ones presented to them. However, all interviewees from German car manufacturers gave significantly higher costs for the hybrid drive train s. Regarding the future market shares of the vehicle segments in 22, the average replies of the interviewees varied only slightly from the status in 21. There was a high level of uncertainty regarding the drive train technologies. This uncertainty became obvious by the large amount of different responses given, some of which even clearly contradicted the others. The main uncertainty shown by all interviewees was regarding the actual market success of electric vehicles. The interviewees currently don t see the need to change the load distribution between massand premium-manufacturers, and as such the 95 g target should be set with the same framework as the 13 g limit. According to the interviewees, this target should be accompanied by some flexibility measures in order to provide incentives to develop and introduce low-emission and electric vehicles into the market early on. The most important flexibility measure would be a credit/debit system which promotes the early adoption of CO 2 -saving technologies. Moreover, super credits for electric vehicles should be valid for longer than they are currently planned. Based on the results of the expert interviews, the identified Technology Packages are kept unchanged for the following calculations, along with their total potential savings and total production costs. The retention of the results refers to the whole European car fleet with a mix of German and non-german car models as well as a volatility in technology costs. However, the higher costs for hybrid technologies in premium vehicles, which were indicated by the interviewees, will be reflected in the strategic implications for the German automotive industry (WP5).

16 7 Derivation of CO2 Targets (WP5.1) 16 7 Derivation of CO 2 Targets (WP5.1) As part of the derivation of the CO 2 emission targets, an economic model was developed to estimate the market penetration of fuel-saving technologies as a function of the key framework parameters. Customers will therefore be presented with all possible technology combinations, from the basic configuration to highly optimized hybrid vehicles. To represent the different development possibilities of the influencing parameters, three different development paths stem out of a scenario analysis. The two extreme factorcombinations form the conservative and the progressive scenarios, while the current trends form the realistic scenario, as represented in Fig Present Empirical data Future Energy and mobility costs Climate change and CO 2 -emissions Positive scenario Progressive scenario Trend scenario Realistic scenario Time Social development Information networking Negative scenario Conservative scenario Conservative scenario Lower fuel prices Market shares fixed to 21 status, without E-Mobility Higher production costs Interpretation: The low fuel prices slow down the market penetration of E-Mobility. This hinders the recovery of development costs, therefore increasing the price of such technologies. Realistic scenario Average fuel prices Market shares 22 forecast, including E-Mobility Average production costs Interpretation: Average fuel prices lead to a subdued demand for E-Mobility and fuel-saving technologies. The development will take place as expected. Progressive scenario High fuel prices Market shares 22 forecast, including E-Mobility Lower production costs Interpretation: The high fuel prices lead to increased demand for fuel-saving technologies. Through increased production, more learning effects can be achieved and passed on to the customers. Fig. 7-1: Overview of the different scenarios In the realistic scenario, given the expected market development, it would be very difficult to reach the 95 g CO 2 /km target with a 1,372 kg reference mass for the entire EU vehicle fleet, as represented in the centre graph of Fig Considering the 4 % to 8 % difference between the retail price and production cost (ΔPC in the graph), a difference of 8 to 13 g CO 2 /km from the target limit results. The technology combinations entailed by the realistic scenario result in an average cost increase of approx. 1,9 for end customers. The difference is small enough to be further reduced by the introduction of eco-innovations and flexibility methods. In the calculation of the difference, the reference mass M was adopted. If the mass is not continuously adjusted, the difference would increase even further.

17 7 Derivation of CO2 Targets (WP5.1) 17 If the given target values have to be achieved, then the gap of 8 to 13 g CO 2 /km needs to be closed with technological measures. Taking only the technical measures with the best cost/benefit ratio into account, it is possible to achieve the 95 g CO 2 /km target value for 2, of additional manufacturing cost. Since the end customers won t take over the complete cost, the additional cost to meet the target in the amount of 65 to 95 (manufacturing cost level) per vehicle need to be covered by the vehicle manufacturers. Thereby, the vehicle manufacturers with a product portfolio composed by rather large vehicles would have to cover higher costs in average. In the past ten years, an average of 3.4 g CO 2 /km was saved per year. The realistic scenario assumes that this average improvement in efficiency can carry on yearly until 22. It should however be noted that the effort required to maintain this yearly level of improvement does not remain constant, but rather increases with time. Conservative scenario Development of fuel prices in line with forecast study CAGR ca. 2.7 % B 22=1.84 B 23=2.41 D 22=1.78 D 23=2.35 Market shares fixed to 21 levels Higher production costs: PC 4 1 % Realistic scenario Development of fuel prices based on a constant CAGR of 4.7 % to 5. % B 22=2.38 B 23=3.8 D 22=2.25 D 23=3.77 Market shares in line with 22 forecast Average production costs: PC 4 8 % Progressive scenario Development of fuel prices based on a progressive CAGR of 6.5 % B 22=2.71 B 23=5.9 D 22=2.39 D 23=4.49 Market shares in line with 22 forecast Lower production costs: PC 2 6 % CO 2 fleet values [g CO 2/km] CO 2 fleet values [g CO 2/km] CO 2 fleet values [g CO 2/km] Ownership period in years Ownership period in years Ownership period in years PC 1% PC 8% PC 6% PC 4% PC 2% PC % Fig. 7-2: Results of the scenario analysis In the conservative scenario, the 95 g CO 2 /km target could not be reached (leftmost graph of Fig. 7-2). This is caused by the lack of vehicle electrification, low fuel prices and the therefore higher costs of fuel-saving technologies. The difference of approx. 16 to 37 g CO 2 /km would not be eliminated through additional measures, and this will result in high penalties for OEMs. In the progressive scenario, reaching the 95 g CO 2 /km target is possible (rightmost graph of Fig. 7-2). The expected market composition in 22 reduces the starting basis of the calculations. High fuel prices and lower production costs will make many technologies economically feasible within the observation period. The difference to reach the target values for the entire fleet would be a maximum of 8 g CO 2 /km.

18 7 Derivation of CO2 Targets (WP5.1) 18 In the conservative scenario, commercial and private customers would only invest an average of approx. 1,2 additionally for new technologies. In the progressive scenario however, customers are willing to invest approx. 2,25 for more expensive vehicles since they will generate significant savings for them in the future. The results of the CO 2 target analysis depend mainly on just a few factors. Costs and benefits of the technologies define the cost efficiency and the market success of the measures. Additionally, the technology costs should be in line with the costs of gasoline, diesel, gas and electricity, to assure that they can economically penetrate the market. The last important influencing factor is the development of the market and overall economy. This will determine the fleet composition by 22, and the possibilities that are available to private and commercial customers for investment in environmental technologies. The economic analysis of the fleet CO 2 emissions shows that a main future challenge will be to focus new passenger car sales on fuel-saving and highly efficient vehicles. In addition to developing the technological side, a demand for such technologies must also be developed. Therefore, the end customers have to be the core target group in the future.

19 8 Strategic Implications for the German Automotive Industry (WP5.2) 19 8 Strategic Implications for the German Automotive Industry (WP5.2) Since the 95 g CO 2 /km limit set by the EU cannot be achieved solely by the market, the need for action by OEMs is intensified. OEMs should design individual R&D strategies which meet their specific qualifications, in order to effectively take part in the CO 2 reduction megatrend and adapt to the resulting technology changes. R&D is becoming more difficult on a singleplayer basis, making it necessary to cooperate horizontally with other OEMs and vertically with suppliers, thus reducing costs and sharing risks. The generation of scaling effects is a central instrument to counter cost pressure. Economies of scale can also be generated by modularization, thus increasing the number of common parts across the model range. The market changes offer suppliers both chances and risks. The risks entailed include a changing product portfolio due to more CO 2 - and energy-efficient technologies such as downsizing or hybrid technologies. On the other hand, this change opens up many growth opportunities by shifting value from OEMs to suppliers. With the new technologies, new nonbrand-shaping automotive components will become part of the vehicles. The development and production of such components can be passed on from the OEMs to suppliers. The OEMs could focus instead on brand-shaping components, overall vehicle concepts, and brand image. In principle, suppliers also have the opportunity to sell their technologies to several OEMs and therefore realize economies of scale. The EC policy has the task to define the CO 2 guidelines for 22 and beyond on a European level, as well as the corresponding conditions. The CO 2 regulations set the relevant cornerstones of the EC s white paper A Roadmap for Moving to a Competitive Low Carbon Economy in 25 as well as its white paper on transport policy. The core regulatory challenge at the EU level is the development of a market for efficient and low-emission vehicles. The framework conditions and design cycle will be part of the discussion in addition to the actual value of the CO 2 limit while crafting current and future EU CO 2 legislations. Since the targets set by the EU clearly place the automotive industry under pressure, and since the pressure is not equal on all industry players, selected flexibility measures offer the opportunity to accelerate the development of needed technologies and incentivize advanced innovation. However, it is important to keep in mind that the goal of flexibility measures is not to weaken the existing CO 2 targets. Super credits, eco-innovations, the credit/debit system and banking/borrowing, as well as emissions certificates can be considered as measures to meet the 95 g CO 2 /km target in future. Additionally, the passenger car market can be controlled by various fiscal measures related to CO 2 emissions.

CO 2 Emission Reduction Potential for Passenger Cars and Light Commercial Vehicles Post 2020

CO 2 Emission Reduction Potential for Passenger Cars and Light Commercial Vehicles Post 2020 CO 2 Emission Reduction Potential for Passenger Cars and Light Commercial Vehicles Post 22 Management Summary 12332 Service Project 59/12 - Study commissioned by the German Federal Ministry for Economic

More information

Alternative Drivetrains Volkswagen Group s Solutions for Sustainable Mobility

Alternative Drivetrains Volkswagen Group s Solutions for Sustainable Mobility Alternative Drivetrains Volkswagen Group s Solutions for Sustainable Mobility Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Steiger Group External Relations Future Technologies 2013-10-02 E-mobil BW Technologietag Stuttgart, Germany

More information

Germany. Type: Large Market; Large Share. Original Equipment Rank. Aftermarket Rank

Germany. Type: Large Market; Large Share. Original Equipment Rank. Aftermarket Rank Germany Type: Large Market; Large Share Germany ranks number 4 on ITA s list of top U.S. auto parts export markets. After several years of declining auto sales, Western Europe has slowly begun to show

More information

VOLKSWAGEN GROUP. Powertrain and Fuel Strategy. Oliver Schmidt. General Manager, Engineering and Environmental Office (EEO)

VOLKSWAGEN GROUP. Powertrain and Fuel Strategy. Oliver Schmidt. General Manager, Engineering and Environmental Office (EEO) VOLKSWAGEN GROUP Powertrain and Fuel Strategy Oliver Schmidt General Manager, Engineering and Environmental Office (EEO) AGENDA Vision of Volkswagen Group: Global Automotive Leader 2018 Powertrain- and

More information

Introduction. Why Focus on Heavy Trucks?

Introduction. Why Focus on Heavy Trucks? Introduction Heavy-duty long-haul trucks are critical to the movement of the Nation s freight. These vehicles, which currently consume about 10 percent of the Nation s oil, are characterized by high fuel

More information

Impact of the climate change discussion on the

Impact of the climate change discussion on the Investor Visit, Credit Suisse, Ingolstadt, 19 May 2009 Impact of the climate change discussion on the Dr. Guido Haak Central Functions/Processes, Product Management, AUDI AG Facts regarding CO 2 and the

More information

Global Light-duty Vehicles: Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards

Global Light-duty Vehicles: Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards International Council on Clean Transportation Global Passenger Vehicles Program April 2011 Update Global Light-duty Vehicles: Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards The ICCT developed a methodology

More information

Returning to the path of profitable growth. SHW 2020 Medium-term planning. 1 st /2 nd December 2015

Returning to the path of profitable growth. SHW 2020 Medium-term planning. 1 st /2 nd December 2015 Returning to the path of profitable growth SHW 2020 Medium-term planning 1 st /2 nd December 2015 SHW 2020 Medium-term planning Returning to the path of profitable growth > Our strategy in a nutshell >

More information

Transport Sector in India

Transport Sector in India Transport Sector in India Carbon Emissions: Technology Mitigation Options through 2030 Ankur Chaudhary Indian Institute of Technology Delhi GHG emissions from the Transport Worldwide: Sector 23% of all

More information

Application and Design of the ebooster from BorgWarner

Application and Design of the ebooster from BorgWarner Application and Design of the ebooster from BorgWarner Knowledge Library Knowledge Library Application and Design of the ebooster from BorgWarner With an electrically assisted compressor, the ebooster,

More information

Powertrain Systems. From 12+12V to 48V: a new road map for hybridization. Dr. Ing O. COPPIN - Valeo Powertrain Systems - France.

Powertrain Systems. From 12+12V to 48V: a new road map for hybridization. Dr. Ing O. COPPIN - Valeo Powertrain Systems - France. Powertrain Systems From 12+12V to 48V: a new road map for hybridization Dr. Ing O. COPPIN - Valeo Powertrain Systems - France May - June 2016 I 1 May - June 2016 Agenda 1 2 3 Drivers for Hybridization

More information

Dr. Rainer Feurer, Senior Vice President Corporate Strategy and Planning, Environment September 28, 2012 THE FUTURE OF SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY.

Dr. Rainer Feurer, Senior Vice President Corporate Strategy and Planning, Environment September 28, 2012 THE FUTURE OF SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY. Dr. Rainer Feurer, Senior Vice President Corporate Strategy and Planning, Environment September 28, 2012 THE FUTURE OF SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY. THE BMW GROUP. THREE AUTHENTIC PREMIUM BRANDS. Sheer driving

More information

Progressive Performance Audi on the way to the leading premium brand

Progressive Performance Audi on the way to the leading premium brand Progressive Performance Audi on the way to the leading premium brand Axel Strotbek, Member of the Board of Management for Finance and Organization, AUDI AG Deutsche Bank Field Trip, June 3,2013 World car

More information

European Engine Outlook Potential of the Gasoline Engine

European Engine Outlook Potential of the Gasoline Engine IHS AUTOMOTIVE Presentation European Engine Outlook Potential of the Gasoline Engine IHS Automotive Customer Briefing Frankfurt 17 June 2015 ihs.com Pavan Potluri, Senior Powertrain Analyst +44 (0) 208

More information

2 September 2015. Andaz London Liverpool Street

2 September 2015. Andaz London Liverpool Street 2 September 2015 Andaz London Liverpool Street Catalysis Speaker Pascal Reymondet Executive Vice-President Catalysis Business Group profile Catalysis Precious Metals Chemistry (PMC) Automotive Catalysts

More information

Drive Towards Zero, Volvo Cars Manufacturing Engineering, Luc Semeese Issue date: 2010-04-20, Security Class: Propriety Page 1

Drive Towards Zero, Volvo Cars Manufacturing Engineering, Luc Semeese Issue date: 2010-04-20, Security Class: Propriety Page 1 Page 1 Volvo Cars Electrification Strategy DRIVe Towards Zero Brussels April 20th 2010 Luc Semeese Director - Volvo Cars Manufacturing Engineering Page 2 Company philosophy : DRIVe towards Zero! Zero accidents

More information

P t ower rain 2020 Electric Vehicles Voice of the Customer Munich, 2010

P t ower rain 2020 Electric Vehicles Voice of the Customer Munich, 2010 Powertrain 2020 Electric Vehicles Voice of the Customer Munich, 2010 Contents Page A. Background Scarce resources and global regulations drive the 4 electrification of the powertrain B. Some good news

More information

48V eco-hybrid Systems

48V eco-hybrid Systems 48V eco-hybrid Systems Jean-Luc MATE Vice President Continental Engineering Services France President Automotech cluster www.continental-corporation.com Division Naming European Conference on Nanoelectronics

More information

Michael Bitter, Robert Bosch GmbH

Michael Bitter, Robert Bosch GmbH Perspective on CO 2 - Penetration in CV-Market Michael Bitter, Robert Bosch GmbH 1 CO 2 Emission [g/km] Perspective on CO 2 - Penetration in CV-Market Development of average CO 2 -emission in Europe Heavy

More information

and fuel consumption from new cars: Assessing the near-term technology potential in the EU

and fuel consumption from new cars: Assessing the near-term technology potential in the EU www.theicct.org Briefing January 2013 Reducing CO 2 and fuel consumption from new cars: Assessing the near-term technology potential in the EU 1. Effect of the EU-CO 2 regulation The average CO 2 emissions

More information

The powertrain system ENGINES TRANSMISSIONS DRIVELINE ELECTRIFIED PROPULSION INTEGRATED CONTROLS. Global Powertrain

The powertrain system ENGINES TRANSMISSIONS DRIVELINE ELECTRIFIED PROPULSION INTEGRATED CONTROLS. Global Powertrain Powertrain Bob Lee The powertrain system ENGINES TRANSMISSIONS DRIVELINE ELECTRIFIED PROPULSION INTEGRATED CONTROLS CO2 (g/km) Regulatory CO 2 challenge The overarching driver for powertrain technology

More information

DELPHI Delphi Presentation

DELPHI Delphi Presentation 4.10. Delphi Presentation DELPHI Electronics and Safety 19.7% of sales Powertrain Systems 29.5% of sales Electrical/Electro nic 40.7% of sales Thermal Systems 11.6% of sales Headquarters Key figures Group

More information

Executive Summary: Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts

Executive Summary: Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts RESEARCH REPORT Executive Summary: Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts Global Forecasts for Light Duty Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, and Battery Electric Vehicles: 2013-2020 NOTE: This document is a free excerpt

More information

Transformation of the powertrain and implication for business strategy. Dr. Bernd Hense, Daimler AG

Transformation of the powertrain and implication for business strategy. Dr. Bernd Hense, Daimler AG Transformation of the powertrain and implication for business strategy 1 The Global Challenge Limited Resources Creeping Mobility Law / Legislation 100 $/barrel 80 60 40 E.g.: Oil Price? 11/09: $78 Megacities

More information

The Role of Electric Drive Transit Technologies in Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions

The Role of Electric Drive Transit Technologies in Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions The Role of Electric Drive Transit Technologies in Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions A. Kolpakov 1 and S. L. Reich 2 Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Urban Public Transportation Systems

More information

US Heavy Duty Fleets - Fuel Economy

US Heavy Duty Fleets - Fuel Economy US Heavy Duty Fleets - Fuel Economy Feb. 22, 2006 Anthony Greszler Vice President Advanced Engineering VOLVO POWERTRAIN CORPORATION Drivers for FE in HD Diesel Pending oil shortage Rapid oil price increases

More information

Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2015. Executive Summary

Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2015. Executive Summary Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2015 Executive Summary EPA-420-S-15-001 December 2015 Executive Summary IntroductIon This report is the

More information

Car CO2 taxation and it s impact on the British car fleet

Car CO2 taxation and it s impact on the British car fleet Car CO2 taxation and it s impact on the British car fleet Ministry of Industry and Information Technology International Council on Clean Transportation Vehicle Fuel Consumption Regulation and Fiscal Policy

More information

A Study about Particle Filter Application on a State-of-the-Art Homogeneous Turbocharged 2L DI Gasoline Engine

A Study about Particle Filter Application on a State-of-the-Art Homogeneous Turbocharged 2L DI Gasoline Engine A Study about Particle Filter Application on a State-of-the-Art Homogeneous Turbocharged 2L DI Gasoline Engine Dr. Ingo Mikulic, Hein Koelman, Steve Majkowski, Paul Vosejpka Dow Automotive Systems 19.

More information

Planetary Module for Hybrid and Plug-In Hybrid vehicles

Planetary Module for Hybrid and Plug-In Hybrid vehicles Planetary Module for Hybrid and Plug-In Hybrid vehicles FEV e-pgs, the one fits all solution? Shanghai, September 17 th 2015 P. Janssen MSc, FEV GmbH 1 Introduction 1487 Leonardo da Vinci Helicopter 1900

More information

K. G. Duleep President, H-D Systems Presented at the Michelin Bibendum Berlin, May 2011

K. G. Duleep President, H-D Systems Presented at the Michelin Bibendum Berlin, May 2011 K. G. Duleep President, H-D Systems Presented at the Michelin Bibendum Berlin, May 2011 Light-duty vehicles have received a lot of attention in the last 10 years and GHG reduction cost is understood. Only

More information

Key Solutions CO₂ assessment

Key Solutions CO₂ assessment GE Capital Key Solutions CO₂ assessment CO₂ emissions from company car fleets across Europe s major markets between 2008 and 2010 www.gecapital.eu/fleet Contents Introduction and key findings Reduction

More information

DYNAMICS AND EFFICIENCY: THE ALL NEW BMW i8 PLUG-IN-HYBRID.

DYNAMICS AND EFFICIENCY: THE ALL NEW BMW i8 PLUG-IN-HYBRID. Wien, 20.November 2014 DYNAMICS AND EFFICIENCY: THE ALL NEW BMW i8 PLUG-IN-HYBRID. CHRISTIAN LANDERL. IN A CHANGING WORLD, E-MOBILITY IS AN INTERESTING APPROACH. Environment Emissions and climate change

More information

Statement Dr. Norbert Reithofer Chairman of the Board of Management of BMW AG Conference Call Interim Report to 31 March 2015 6 May 2015, 10:00 a.m.

Statement Dr. Norbert Reithofer Chairman of the Board of Management of BMW AG Conference Call Interim Report to 31 March 2015 6 May 2015, 10:00 a.m. Media Information - Check against delivery - Statement Dr. Norbert Reithofer Chairman of the Board of Management of BMW AG Conference Call Interim Report to 31 March 2015, 10:00 a.m. Ladies and Gentlemen!

More information

FEV Parallel Mode Strategy

FEV Parallel Mode Strategy FEV Parallel Mode Strategy Peter Janssen MSc. Dipl.-Ing Glenn Haverkort FEV Motorentechnik As the automotive industry has to react to the global concern about climate change related to CO2 emissions and

More information

DISCUSSION PAPER. Do Market Shares or Technology Explain Rising New Vehicle Fuel Economy? S h e f a l i Kh a n n a a n d J o s h u a L i n n

DISCUSSION PAPER. Do Market Shares or Technology Explain Rising New Vehicle Fuel Economy? S h e f a l i Kh a n n a a n d J o s h u a L i n n DISCUSSION PAPER September 2013 RFF DP 13-29 Do Market Shares or Technology Explain Rising New Vehicle Fuel Economy? S h e f a l i Kh a n n a a n d J o s h u a L i n n 1616 P St. NW Washington, DC 20036

More information

WORKSHOP 6: ROADMAP TO 100 G CO 2

WORKSHOP 6: ROADMAP TO 100 G CO 2 WORKSHOP 6: ROADMAP TO 100 G CO 2 /KM WELL-TO-WHEEL PANELISTS: Neville JACKSON, Ricardo, Chief Technology and Innovation offi cer Andre DOUAUD, Automobile & Energy consulting Joël FOUCARD, Michelin Jean-Jacques

More information

ICCT mission and activities

ICCT mission and activities Global Best Practices in Fuel Efficiency Policies Anup Bandivadekar CSE Workshop on Transport and Climate 24-25 July 2013, New Delhi ICCT mission and activities The mission of ICCT is to dramatically improve

More information

Monitoring CO 2. emissions from new passenger cars in the EU: summary of data for 2012

Monitoring CO 2. emissions from new passenger cars in the EU: summary of data for 2012 Monitoring CO 2 emissions from new passenger cars in the EU: summary of data for 212 Abstract Abstract For the third successive year, the European Environment Agency (EEA) has collected EU Member States'

More information

PEUGEOT e-hdi STOP/START TECHNOLOGY MEDIA KIT

PEUGEOT e-hdi STOP/START TECHNOLOGY MEDIA KIT PEUGEOT e-hdi STOP/START TECHNOLOGY MEDIA KIT PEUGEOT e-hdi TECHNOLOGY INTRODUCTION In designing the new generation of Euro 5 HDi engines - a project in which Peugeot has invested more than 1billion the

More information

Reducing CO2 Emissions from New Cars: A Study of Major Car Manufacturers' Progress in 2006. November 2007

Reducing CO2 Emissions from New Cars: A Study of Major Car Manufacturers' Progress in 2006. November 2007 Reducing CO2 Emissions from New Cars: A Study of Major Car Manufacturers' Progress in 2006 November 2007 1 Reducing CO2 Emissions from New Cars: A Study of Major Car Manufacturers' Progress in 2006 November

More information

HRB Hydrostatic Regenerative Braking System: The Hydraulic Hybrid Drive from Bosch Rexroth

HRB Hydrostatic Regenerative Braking System: The Hydraulic Hybrid Drive from Bosch Rexroth HRB Hydrostatic Regenerative Braking System: The Hydraulic Hybrid Drive from Bosch Rexroth Contact Eric Lindzus, Bosch Rexroth AG Bosch Rexroth AG Product Management Sales Mobile Hydraulics Innovative

More information

Automotive Powertrain Technologies through 2016 and 2025

Automotive Powertrain Technologies through 2016 and 2025 Automotive Powertrain Technologies through 2016 and 2025 University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute Conference. Marketing New Powertrain Technologies: Strategies in Transition February 15,

More information

Why Some Fuel-Efficient Vehicles Are Not Sold Domestically

Why Some Fuel-Efficient Vehicles Are Not Sold Domestically Why Some Fuel-Efficient Vehicles Are Not Sold Domestically Bill Canis Specialist in Industrial Organization and Business August 17, 2012 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress

More information

FOCUS ON GERMANY: ELECTRIC, HYBRID & PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLES FY2015 MARKET OVERVIEW. Analysis completed: March 2016

FOCUS ON GERMANY: ELECTRIC, HYBRID & PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLES FY2015 MARKET OVERVIEW. Analysis completed: March 2016 FOCUS ON GERMANY: ELECTRIC, HYBRID & PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLES FY2015 MARKET OVERVIEW Analysis completed: March 2016 All Rights Reserved JATO Dynamics Ltd 1 INTRODUCTION The electrification of the global

More information

ESG/SRI Conference November 19, 2015, Société Générale, Paris

ESG/SRI Conference November 19, 2015, Société Générale, Paris Sustainability Management & Environmental Protection @ Daimler Dr. Udo Hartmann I Senior Manager Group Environmental Protection Sustainability Management Environmental Program CO 2 -Strategy & Processes

More information

Drive Electric Northern Colorado. Creating a Model Deployment Community

Drive Electric Northern Colorado. Creating a Model Deployment Community Drive Electric Northern Colorado Creating a Model Deployment Community The Deployment Community Concept: To facilitate nationwide commercialization of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) technology, the engagement

More information

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR GAS TO 2 35

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR GAS TO 2 35 LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR GAS TO 2 35 Eurogas is the association representing the European gas wholesale, retail and distribution sectors. Founded in 1990, its members are some 50 companies and associations

More information

Commercial vehicles and CO 2

Commercial vehicles and CO 2 Commercial vehicles and European Automobile Manufacturers Association ACEA position Fuel Efficiency is Market Driven Fuel efficiency is one of the most important competitive factors in developing and selling

More information

Emissions and fuel consumption of natural gas powered city buses versus diesel buses in realcity

Emissions and fuel consumption of natural gas powered city buses versus diesel buses in realcity Emissions and fuel consumption of natural gas powered city buses versus diesel buses in realcity traffic L. Pelkmans, D. De Keukeleere & G. Lenaers Vito Flemish Institute for Technological Research, Belgium

More information

Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Consumption Displacement Potential up to 2045

Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Consumption Displacement Potential up to 2045 ANL/ESD/11-4 Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Consumption Displacement Potential up to 2045 Energy Systems Division Page 1 About Argonne National Laboratory Argonne is a U.S. Department of Energy laboratory managed

More information

Carbon emissions. A practical guide for fleet operators and drivers. Photography by Bob McCaffrey on Flickr

Carbon emissions. A practical guide for fleet operators and drivers. Photography by Bob McCaffrey on Flickr Carbon emissions A practical guide for fleet operators and drivers Photography by Bob McCaffrey on Flickr Road haulage carbon emissions With the Government highly-focused on reducing the UK s carbon emission

More information

Overview of vehicle taxation schemes (including incentives for electric vehicles), 2014. Content: 1. National vehicle taxation schemes Overview...

Overview of vehicle taxation schemes (including incentives for electric vehicles), 2014. Content: 1. National vehicle taxation schemes Overview... Overview of vehicle taxation schemes (including incentives for electric vehicles), 2014 Content: 1. National vehicle taxation schemes Overview... 2 2. National vehicle taxation schemes Description... 4

More information

There are numerous national policy drivers for low emission vehicles

There are numerous national policy drivers for low emission vehicles There are numerous national policy drivers for low emission vehicles Reducing CO 2 (GHG) emissions from road transport meeting Government s carbon budgets Reducing NOx/PM from road transport, improving

More information

Zero Emission Engine. An Economic and Environmental Benefit

Zero Emission Engine. An Economic and Environmental Benefit Zero Emission Engine An Economic and Environmental Benefit Saskia Scherfling Registration number: 731805 Department: VIII Course of studies: Process and Environmental Engineering September 2007 Table of

More information

Future of Automotive Industry in Europe ŠKODA AUTO & Impact of EU Legislation. Michal Kadera External Affairs Director 23 April 2013

Future of Automotive Industry in Europe ŠKODA AUTO & Impact of EU Legislation. Michal Kadera External Affairs Director 23 April 2013 Future of Automotive Industry in Europe ŠKODA AUTO & Impact of EU Legislation Michal Kadera External Affairs Director 23 April 2013 History of ŠKODA AUTO Milestones 1895 Foundation of Laurin & Klement

More information

Volvo Cars, Plug-In Hybrid Concept Development

Volvo Cars, Plug-In Hybrid Concept Development Volvo Cars, Plug-In Hybrid Concept Development The background of V60 Plug-In Hybrid Concept as presented internally at Volvo Car Corporation in May 2008 Klas Niste Project leader for Advanced Project for

More information

Future directions in natural gas injection: Is CNG an alternative to gasoline or Diesel for passenger cars?

Future directions in natural gas injection: Is CNG an alternative to gasoline or Diesel for passenger cars? Future directions in natural gas injection: Is CNG an alternative to gasoline or Diesel for passenger cars? Jean-Francois Preuhs, Guy Hoffmann, Joachim Kiefer, Camille Feyder Bascharage, 6. November 2014

More information

Daimler s Super Truck Program; 50% Brake Thermal Efficiency

Daimler s Super Truck Program; 50% Brake Thermal Efficiency Daimler s Super Truck Program; 50% Brake Thermal Efficiency 2012 Directions in Engine-Efficiency and Emissions Research (DEER) Conference Marc Allain, David Atherton, Igor Gruden, Sandeep Singh, Kevin

More information

Powerplaza EV Technology & Global EV Mainstream Analysis

Powerplaza EV Technology & Global EV Mainstream Analysis Powerplaza EV Technology & Global EV Mainstream Analysis Global Business Development / General Manager, Powerplaza Co., Ltd. Soo-Hyun Kwon Powerplaza EV Technology POWER PLAZA CO., LTD. Think Green Technology,

More information

Fuel Economy Simulation for the Vehicle Fleet

Fuel Economy Simulation for the Vehicle Fleet COVER STORY Simulation and Visualisation Fuel Economy Simulation for the Vehicle Fleet Forecasting the fuel consumption of an entire vehicle fleet has become a crucial challenge for all car manufacturers.

More information

Global Trends in Passenger Vehicle Fuel Economy Standards

Global Trends in Passenger Vehicle Fuel Economy Standards Global Trends in Passenger Vehicle Fuel Economy Standards Drew Kodjak, Executive Director GFEI Fuel Economy Symposium Ministry of Foreign Affairs & International Development 27 rue de la Convention, Paris

More information

Corporate Presentation February/March 2013

Corporate Presentation February/March 2013 Corporate Presentation February/March 2013 2 Contents Daimler Group 2012 Divisions 2012 Outlook 2013 Appendix 3 Daimler Group 2012 Economic environment deteriorated during the course of the year European

More information

2 nd National Workshop on Global Fuel Economy Initiative (GFEI) in Mauritius. Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development 27 th November 2014

2 nd National Workshop on Global Fuel Economy Initiative (GFEI) in Mauritius. Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development 27 th November 2014 2 nd National Workshop on Global Fuel Economy Initiative (GFEI) in Mauritius Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development 27 th November 2014 1 Global Fuel Economy Initiative Background Estimated

More information

Future Mobility Volkswagen Group s Solutions for Sustainable Mobility

Future Mobility Volkswagen Group s Solutions for Sustainable Mobility Future Mobility Volkswagen Group s Solutions for Sustainable Mobility Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Steiger Global Government Affairs Future Technologies 2014-07-04 Disclaimer The offer for shares of Scania AB (the

More information

The Company does not undertake to provide updates of these statements.

The Company does not undertake to provide updates of these statements. 2012 Q1 Revenues April 25 th, 2012 This presentation may contain forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements do not constitute forecasts regarding the Company s results or any other performance

More information

Presentation in the 2 nd International Energy Conference Power Options for the Eastern Mediterranean Region POEM 2013

Presentation in the 2 nd International Energy Conference Power Options for the Eastern Mediterranean Region POEM 2013 Presentation in the 2 nd International Energy Conference Power POEM 2013 Technical and feasibility analysis of gasoline and natural gas fuelled vehicles by Dr Charalambos A. Chasos, Prof. G.N. Karagiorgis

More information

Policies and progress on transport access, including access for the rural population and low-income households

Policies and progress on transport access, including access for the rural population and low-income households Transport Policies and progress on transport access, including access for the rural population and low-income households The newest long-term strategy of the Ministry of Transport and Communications Finland,

More information

Reducing greenhouse emissions from transport - UK national project

Reducing greenhouse emissions from transport - UK national project Reducing greenhouse emissions from transport - UK national project Phase One: Perspectives SECOND DRAFT Targets: how far and how fast? The importance of rates of progress for climate change One of the

More information

Commerzbank AG Sustainability Conference

Commerzbank AG Sustainability Conference Commerzbank AG Sustainability Conference Dr. Christian Mohrdieck Director Drive Development Fuel Cell System Group Research & Mercedes-Benz Cars Development Frankfurt, 30 May 2012 1 Titel der Präsentation

More information

Fraunhofer System Research for E-Mobility (FSEM) Current LCA results and need for further research

Fraunhofer System Research for E-Mobility (FSEM) Current LCA results and need for further research Fraunhofer System Research for E-Mobility (FSEM) Current LCA results and need for further research Fraunhofer System Research for E-Mobility (FSEM) Current LCA results and need for further research Dipl.-Ing.

More information

Testing of particulate emissions from positive ignition vehicles with direct fuel injection system. Technical Report 2013-09-26

Testing of particulate emissions from positive ignition vehicles with direct fuel injection system. Technical Report 2013-09-26 Testing of particulate emissions from positive ignition vehicles with direct fuel injection system -09-26 by Felix Köhler Institut für Fahrzeugtechnik und Mobilität Antrieb/Emissionen PKW/Kraftrad On behalf

More information

Creating Efficient and Effective Urban Freight Logistics Solutions in the North Sea Region

Creating Efficient and Effective Urban Freight Logistics Solutions in the North Sea Region Creating Efficient and Effective Urban Freight Logistics Solutions in the North Sea Region Hamburg - September 1 st 2014 Presentation by Michael Stie Laugesen Head of Transportation and Planning Section

More information

Into the Future WIth e-mobility ZF ProDuCtS For hybrid AnD electric VehICleS

Into the Future WIth e-mobility ZF ProDuCtS For hybrid AnD electric VehICleS Into the Future With e-mobility ZF PRODUCTS FOR HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES Contents Electric mobility page 4 a megatrend with potential Diversity in efficiency: page 6 electrification of the driveline

More information

How vehicle fuel economy improvements can save $2 trillion and help fund a long-term transition to plug-in vehicles Working Paper 9

How vehicle fuel economy improvements can save $2 trillion and help fund a long-term transition to plug-in vehicles Working Paper 9 How vehicle fuel economy improvements can save $2 trillion and help fund a long-term transition to plug-in vehicles Working Paper 9 UNEP How vehicle fuel economy improvements can save $2 trillion and help

More information

ELECTRIC VEHICLE INVEST IN SPAIN Investment opportunities in Spain January 2012

ELECTRIC VEHICLE INVEST IN SPAIN Investment opportunities in Spain January 2012 ELECTRIC VEHICLE INVEST IN SPAIN Investment opportunities in Spain January 2012 INDEX I. II. III. IV. V. VI. VII. INTRODUCTION BUSINESS IDENTIFICATION BUSINESS ANALYSIS OPPORTUNITIES AND PROGRESSION FORECASTS

More information

The Volkswagen Hybrid Strategy

The Volkswagen Hybrid Strategy The Volkswagen Hybrid Strategy - Hybrid Tour with MainFirst Bank 28 th March 2006 Dr. Tobias Böhm Volkswagen AG Sustainability Based Aspects in Mobility Energy Greenhouse Gases CO 2 Exhaust Emissions CO,NOx,HC,PM

More information

Automotive After Sales 2015

Automotive After Sales 2015 A Automotive After Sales 2015 Are you ready for the battle? Rapidly declining profit margins in the new car sales business together with the continuous extension of car life are making the after sales

More information

Committee on Climate Change: Advice to the Scottish Government on emission targets for 2023-2027 and credit use in 2013-2017

Committee on Climate Change: Advice to the Scottish Government on emission targets for 2023-2027 and credit use in 2013-2017 Stewart Stevenson Minister for Environment and Climate Change St Andrew s House Regent Road Edinburgh EH1 3DG 1 July 2011 Dear Stewart Committee on Climate Change: Advice to the Scottish Government on

More information

Best Practices Guidebook for Greenhouse Gas Reductions in Freight Transportation

Best Practices Guidebook for Greenhouse Gas Reductions in Freight Transportation Best Practices Guidebook for Greenhouse Gas Reductions in Freight Transportation Final Report Prepared for U.S. Department of Transportation via Center for Transportation and the Environment Prepared by

More information

16. Aachener Kolloquium Fahrzeug- und Motorentechnik 2007 1

16. Aachener Kolloquium Fahrzeug- und Motorentechnik 2007 1 16. Aachener Kolloquium Fahrzeug- und Motorentechnik 2007 1 Notwendige Fortschritte in der Antriebsstrangentwicklung zur nachhaltigen Mobilität mit Hybridtechnologie Powertrain Approach for Sustainable

More information

INDIAN LUBRICANT INDUSTRY - SHRINKING MARGINS

INDIAN LUBRICANT INDUSTRY - SHRINKING MARGINS INDIAN LUBRICANT INDUSTRY - SHRINKING MARGINS Declining demand growth of automotive lubricants, increasing competition on account of the presence of a large number of players, and increasing raw material

More information

Electric Vehicles: Driving EVolution

Electric Vehicles: Driving EVolution Electric Vehicles: Driving EVolution November 2014 Executive Summary Electric Vehicles (EVs) have the potential to provide a significant benefit to consumers and utilities, however as demonstrated in Ergon

More information

Ultra Low Emission Vans study. Final Report. January 2012. Element Energy Limited

Ultra Low Emission Vans study. Final Report. January 2012. Element Energy Limited Ultra Low Emission Vans study Final Report January 2012 Element Energy Limited Disclaimer Department for Transport Although this report was commissioned by the Department for Transport (DfT), the findings

More information

Low sulphur fuel benefits: Vehicle fuel economy and emissions

Low sulphur fuel benefits: Vehicle fuel economy and emissions Low sulphur fuel benefits: Vehicle fuel economy and emissions Stuart Rayner: National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa/Ford Motor Company: July 2015 Presentation sections Fuel economy

More information

(1) INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY OF THE SURVEY

(1) INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY OF THE SURVEY October 31st, 2011 COMPANY CAR POLICIES TO REDUCE CO 2 -EMISSIONS: A SURVEY AMONGST SELECTED WEC MEMBER COMPANIES Composed by Kristina Modée and Frank Werner, World Environment Center (WEC) Structure of

More information

Our New MIT Report: On the Road towards 2050. John B. Heywood Sloan Automotive Laboratory, M.I.T.

Our New MIT Report: On the Road towards 2050. John B. Heywood Sloan Automotive Laboratory, M.I.T. Our New MIT Report: On the Road towards 2050 John B. Heywood Sloan Automotive Laboratory, M.I.T. Presentation at 11 th Concawe Symposium Brussels, February 24, 2015 Issued a Series of Reports On the Road

More information

Full-Toroidal Variable Drive Transmission Systems in Mechanical Hybrid Systems From Formula 1 to Road Vehicles

Full-Toroidal Variable Drive Transmission Systems in Mechanical Hybrid Systems From Formula 1 to Road Vehicles Full-Toroidal Variable Drive Transmission Systems in Mechanical Hybrid Systems From Formula 1 to Road Vehicles Chris Brockbank BSc (Hons) & Chris Greenwood BSc (Hons) Torotrak (Development) Ltd 1. Introduction

More information

EHRS Impact on Engine Warm up and Fuel Economy. Edouard Barrieu

EHRS Impact on Engine Warm up and Fuel Economy. Edouard Barrieu EHRS Impact on Engine Warm up and Fuel Economy Edouard Barrieu Why Consider Exhaust Heat Recovery? Industry Challenges Fuel Economy/CO2 Regulations Real life use Labeling Opportunity Gasoline Diesel Passenger

More information

Structure of this presentation

Structure of this presentation Michael Matthias Structure of this presentation The copying, distribution and utilization of this document as well as the communication of its contents to others without expressed authorization is prohibited.

More information

Think Blue Volkwagen s sustainability strategy. Ricardo Tomaz SIVA

Think Blue Volkwagen s sustainability strategy. Ricardo Tomaz SIVA Think Blue Volkwagen s sustainability strategy Ricardo Tomaz SIVA The world is changing. Finite resources, dependence on oil Emissions, global warming Support for e-mobility in government policy Increasing

More information

Fuel Emissions from the Car Fleet

Fuel Emissions from the Car Fleet Transport Research & Information Note Fuel Emissions from the Car Fleet February 2011 Transportation Research & Information Notes Fuel Emissions from the Car Fleet February 2011 This document is available

More information

Compressed Natural Gas Study for Westport Light Duty, Inc. Kelley Blue Book Irvine, California April 3, 2012

Compressed Natural Gas Study for Westport Light Duty, Inc. Kelley Blue Book Irvine, California April 3, 2012 Compressed Natural Gas Study for Westport Light Duty, Inc. Kelley Blue Book Irvine, California April 3, 2012 2 Overview Westport Light Duty is part of the Westport Innovations company, a leader in the

More information

September 9, 2015. Mr. John Eichberger Executive Director Fuels Institute 1600 Duke Street, Suite 700 Alexandria, Virginia 22314

September 9, 2015. Mr. John Eichberger Executive Director Fuels Institute 1600 Duke Street, Suite 700 Alexandria, Virginia 22314 September 9, 2015 Mr. John Eichberger Executive Director Fuels Institute 1600 Duke Street, Suite 700 Alexandria, Virginia 22314 RE: CMU Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Study for Light Duty Vehicles Dear John:

More information

First Quarter Report 2009. January 1 to March 31, 2009

First Quarter Report 2009. January 1 to March 31, 2009 First Quarter Report 2009 January 1 to March 31, 2009 Page 2 Interim Report on 1st quarter of 2009 Audi brand increases market shares further in 1st quarter ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT On the back of the sharp

More information

BENTELER GROUP SALES DOWN 28%

BENTELER GROUP SALES DOWN 28% Excerpt from the Annual Report 2009 BENTELER GROUP SALES DOWN 28% The Benteler Group employs 23,146 people at 150 locations in 38 countries In 2009 the Benteler Group generated sales of 4,564 million euros

More information

CO 2 emissions target for passenger cars for 2025: delivering value to consumers

CO 2 emissions target for passenger cars for 2025: delivering value to consumers The Consumer Voice in Europe CO 2 emissions target for passenger cars for 2025: delivering value to consumers Long version Contact: Stefanie Heinzle environment@beuc.eu Ref.: X/2013/019 22/03/2013 Executive

More information

European Distribution System Operators for Smart Grids. Position paper on Electric Vehicles Charging Infrastructure

European Distribution System Operators for Smart Grids. Position paper on Electric Vehicles Charging Infrastructure European Distribution System Operators for Smart Grids Position paper on Electric Vehicles Charging Infrastructure European Distribution System Operators for Smart Grids Position paper on ELECTRIC VEHICLES

More information

When are Alternative Fuel Vehicles a Cost-Effective Option for Local Governments? Christopher R Sherman

When are Alternative Fuel Vehicles a Cost-Effective Option for Local Governments? Christopher R Sherman by Christopher R Sherman A paper submitted to the faculty of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Public Administration

More information

OPPORTUNITIES IN INDIAN AUTOMOTIVE COMPONENTS INDUSTRY

OPPORTUNITIES IN INDIAN AUTOMOTIVE COMPONENTS INDUSTRY OPPORTUNITIES IN INDIAN AUTOMOTIVE COMPONENTS INDUSTRY April 2015 India THE INDIAN AUTOMOTIVE MARKET IS STEADILY GROWING TO BE 3RD LARGEST BY 2030 Automotive Market Turnover - India USD Billion 24,1 30,8

More information