Developing Tsunami Damage Estimation

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1 1 st Joint Coordinating Committee Developing Tsunami Damage Estimation and Mitigation Technologies G2: Tsunami Dr. Shunichi hi Koshimura (Tohoku Univ., Tsunami engineering) i Mr. Erick Mas (Tohoku Univ., Tsunami engineering) Mr. Cesar Jimenez (DHN, San Marcos Univ., Seismology and tsunami modeling) Mr. Bruno Adriano (CISMID, Tsunami modeling) Ms. Sheila Yauri (IGP, Seismology) Dr. Miguel Estrada (CISMID, Earthquake engineering) Dr. Gaku Shoji, Mr. Yu Hiraki, Mr. Yoshiyuki Ezura (Tsukuba Univ., Structural and earthquake engineering) Dr. Yuji Yagi (Tsukuba Univ., Seismology) Dr. Yushiro Fujii (BRI, Seismology and Tsunami modeling) Dr. Hideaki Yanagisawa (TEPSCO, Tsunami modeling) Project Plan Objectives and Goals To assess the potential tsunami disaster and its impact to the Peruvian coast. To develop practical technologies to mitigate tsunami risks in Peru. Implementation to the strategic plans for disaster mitigation of Peruvian government. Contributions to Pacific tsunami disaster mitigation strategies.

2 Tsunami modeling technology Tsunami Modeling techniques (TUNAMI-code to simulate tsunami generation, off-shore/near- shore propagation and coastal inundation) 3 Equipments donated by JICA Year Items Quantity Price 2010 Desktop workstation for tsunami modeling 3 $8, Mobile workstation for survey and analysis 1 $2, Software for data analysis (Arc GIS and extensions) 3lic. $10, High-resolution satellite image data 1set 1,519,105

3 What we have done so far Transfer of tsunami numerical modeling technique Post-tsunami field survey in Chile (2010 event) Tsunami field survey in Camana, Peru (2001 event) Verification of tsunami numerical model and tsunami source study (The 2001 Camana tsunami) Tsunami risk assessment along the Peruvian coast Mapping tsunami inundation in Callao, Lima Tsunami risk perception and evacuation in Callao, Lima 5 Progress Report (Tsunami Propagation and Impacts) Verification of tsunami numerical model and tsunami source study (2001 Camana tsunami) Bruno Adriano@CISMID 8 (m) 6 Measured K=0.98 κ= Computed (m) 6

4 Progress Report Tsunami Propagation and Impacts Review of historical earthquakes ( ) and risk analysis Sheila 6cm/yr Bathymetry Progress Report Tsunami Hazard Mapping Data Collection Topography Landuse Street & Evacuation zone

5 Progress Report Tsunami Hazard Mapping Potential tsunami source scenario [Pulido et al., 2011](G1) Bruno Cesar Sheila Source Model (Pulido et al., 2011) Progress Report Tsunami Hazard Mapping Bruno Cesar 10

6 Bruno 11 Progress Report Tsunami Damage Mitigation Technology Multi-agent simulation Erick Univ. Tsunami evacuation activities and strategic planning Requirement R i t of tsunami evacuation building Casualty estimation Public education

7 Human Resources Development Tsunami Training i Course Field Survey in Chile Technical Discussion Group Meeting Coming Schedule for Tsunami Propagation/Inundation Mapping Date Topic Organization 2011 Complete review of historical tsunami events and G1 determine potential tsunami source scenarios for IGP, DHN, Tohoku Univ., BRI Callao, Lima Developing archives of historical tsunami data, IGP, DHN, CISMID, Tohoku propagation simulation, inundation mapping. Univ., BRI Tsunami Damage/Loss Estimation Date Topic Organization 2011 Developing house/building inventory, census data for Callao, Lima Developing tsunami fragility curves and conducting damage/loss estimation for Callao, Lima. G1, CISMID, Tohoku Univ. DHN, CISMID, Tohoku Univ. Tsukuba Univ. Tsunami Damage Mitigation Technology Date Topic Organization Complete hazard map for Callao, Lima CISMID, INDECI, Tohoku Univ Strategic planning for tsunami evacuation by multi-agent simulation CISMID, INDECI, Tohoku Univ.

8 Towards a new tsunami warning system in Peru & Latin American countries How the seismic source information is acquired (IGP) Depth Location Magnitudeg How tsunami forecasting is performed (DHN) DHN Numerical model & Database (Travel time, height) Bathymetry Monitoring o g system CISMID IGP INDECI How the information is delivered to the public Strategic plan for evacuation (INDECI) Public education (INDECI, CISMID) Historical earthquakes 11 events (Mw>8) during Mw8.5 (Northan Chile), 2001 Mw8.4, 2007 Mw8.0

9 Tsunami vulnerabilityassessment assessment Earthquake scenarios Mw8.0, 8.2, 8.4, 8.6, 8.8 along the plate boundary Fault parameters were determined following the modeling of 2001 tsunami Numerical simulation Maximum tsunami height Fragility function of human death ratio GIS analysis Death ratio Population data Potential tsunami exposure Probability of exceedance of Potential tsunami exposure 3.Risk assessment using the index of Potential Tsunami Exposure Fragility function for death ratio (Koshimura et al.,2009) H 5.37 Fr( H ) = Φ 0.72 Potential tsunami exposure PTE = Fr( H ) Population 0 0'0" Population data (LandScan 2008) µ t year probability of exceedance using Poisson process S 10 0'0"S t year probability of exceedance that PTE exceeds a value P [ PTE a; t] = 1 exp( λt) λ is annual frequency of occurrence λ = n N [ PTE a] 1 1 N m= m n T '0"S Population '0"W 80 0'0"W 70 0'0"W

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