Merger Consequences Analysis. Jay Kocherlakota

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1 Merger Consequences Analysis Jay Kocherlakota

2 Business Descriptions Comcast Largest provider of high-speed internet and cable-tv with over 22 million subscribers Acquired control of NBC Universal from General Electric in 2009 Only cable distributor gaining video subs due to technology advantage Comcast Revenue Breakdown 8.3% 10.8% 31.1% 14.0% 15.7% 5.5% Video High Speed Internet Voice Business Services Advertising Other Cable Networks Broadcast TV Filmed Entertainment Theme Parks Time Warner Cable Time Warner Cable Revenue Breakdown Second largest provider of highspeed internet and cable-tv with over 11 million subscribers 10.5% 9.5% Video The Firm has a strong presence in New York, Los Angeles and Dallas 25.4% 54.6% High Speed Internet Voice Business Services Company has been losing subs due to lack of capital investment in all-digital transmission 2

3 Industry Overview Pay Television Competition includes other cable companies (CHTR, COX), satellite providers (DTV, DISH) and fiberoptic providers (VZ, T) Cable distributors have regional monopolies while satellite and fiber-optic providers compete nationally High Speed Internet Competition similar to Pay-TV but excludes satellite providers % 5.0% United States Video Subscribers High-Speed Internet Subscriber Growth High capital expenditures are required to build fixed-broadband network and serve as a barrier to entry for new market participants Main source of revenue growth for cable distributors in near future 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% CMCSA TWC 3

4 Merger Rationale Containing Programming Costs Programming costs, the largest cost for cable distributors have been increasing over the past 5 years and are forecasted to increase Expanding subscriber base gives the pro-forma entity more leverage when negotiation with content providers, avoiding blackouts Expanding Technological Advantage Comcast s Xfinity platform allows broadband subscribers to watch TV shows online Programming Cost Escalation 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% CMCSA 4.0% TWC 2.0% 0.0% Video Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) Comcast s new X-1 set-top box is vastly superior to Time Warner Cable s CMCSA TWC Comcast gained 43,000 video subscribers last quarter

5 Merger Process Initial Bid by Charter Time Warner Cable Stock Performance Charter Communications is serving as an acquisition vehicle for Liberty Media and it s owner, John Malone Charter bid throughout 2013, finally proposing $132.5 per share The Board rejected bids, claiming shares were valued at $160 Why Comcast Entered the Process Historical Debt / EBITDA Levels Charter initiated a proxy fight by suggesting board nominees for the next shareholder meeting 5 4 Given Charter s size, it s proposed transaction structure leveraged the pro-forma entity up to 5.6(x) Comcast s CEO, Brian Roberts, is a strong rival of John Malone

6 Deal Mechanics Transaction Highlights Comcast will acquire 100% of Time Warner Cable by offering $154.3 per share to shareholders Bid represents a 20% purchase premium to existing stock price Comcast is paying 7.9(x) pre-synergy EBITDA Financing Structure Time Warner Cable shareholders will receive shares of Comcast for each share they own Time Warner Cable shareholders will own ~23% of pro-forma entity Sources $MM New Equity Issued 44,618 Rolled CMCSA Debt 47,847 Rolled TWC Debt 25,032 Total Sources 117,497 Uses $MM Purchase TWC Equity 44,021 Roll CMCSA Debt 47,847 Roll TWC Debt 25,032 Fees & Expenses 597 No collar is in place to protect Time Warner Cable shareholders against slide in Comcast stock price Total Uses 117,497 6

7 Illustrative Value Creation Comcast s View on Value Creation Historical Earnings Multiples Analogous earnings multiples implies transaction is not accretive or dilutive by itself Incremental FCF will be used to finance $10 billion share repurchase CMCSA TWC Comcast claims merger will increase net-operating income by $1.5 billion My View on Value Creation Synergy Analysis Largest synergies from programming cost reduction and technology-driven price increases Few synergies from reducing churn, subscriber acquisition costs and capital expenditures because the company s do not directly compete Pre-Merger Post-Merger Value Creation TWC CMCSA 7

8 Regulatory Approval Process Government Antitrust Concerns Pro-Forma High Speed Internet Market Share Transaction needs to be approved by both the Department of Justice and the Federal Communications Commission 39.5% Comcast Verizon AT&T CenturyLink Opposition primarily stems from Comcast s large broadband market share and lack of national competitors 19.8% 10.8% Cox Charter Communications Cablevision Frontier Optimum Comcast Argument Comcast and Time Warner Cable do not compete in a single zip code in the entire country Comcast and Time Warner Cable Footprint Comcast needs to be able to license content on a nation-wide basis to compete with Netflix, Verizon etc. Merger improves user experience of Time Warner Cable subscribers 8

9 Average Speed (mb/s) Regulatory Approval Process (continued) Comcast Concessions to FCC Pro-Forma Video Market Share Comcast will divest Time Warner Cable operations with 3 million video and high-speed internet subscribers 34.7% Comcast DirecTV Dish Networks Verizon Fios After acquisition of NBC Universal, Comcast promised not to price discriminate against other content providers 14.7% 21.1% AT&T Cox Charter Communications Cablevision Other Net Neutrality Enforcement Net Neutrality prevents internet service providers from charging higher rates to websites that use more bandwidth FCC favors net neutrality but DC Circuit Court claims the FCC has no regulatory authority to enforce it Comcast may pledge to uphold net-neutrality as another concession Netflix ISP Speed Index GOOG CVC COX CHTR TWC VZ T CMCSA 9

10 Market Reaction Time Warner Cable Time Warner Cable Stock Price Stock at $146, reflecting investor uncertainty over regulatory process Newly issued 30 year bonds increased by 19% Time Warner Cable accounted for 25% of corporate bond trading after acquisition announced Comcast Comcast Stock Price Stock fell 3.5%, implying investors fear Comcast is overpaying Time Warner Cable and Comcast s securities are now linked due to the lack of a collar agreement Lack of breakup fee may have prevented further slide in Comcast s stock price 10

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