Brian Linneker and Cathy McIlwaine May 2011

Transcription

1 Estimating the Latin American Population of London from Official Data Sources Brian Linneker and Cathy McIlwaine May 2011

2 Contents Executive Summary Introduction Conceptual and Measurement Issues - Census and Surveys - Administration and Registration Systems Working Definition of the Latin American Population Estimates from Available Official Data Sets - The Population Census International Passenger Survey Latin American Migrant Flows to the UK - Latin American Visitor Flows to the UK - The Labour Force Survey Annual Population Survey London Latin Americans by Age, Sex, and Economic Activity - DWP - National Insurance Registrations UK Border Agency Passenger Arrivals - Home Office Asylum Data Irregular Migrants Estimating the Irregular Latin American Population of London Methods of Estimation - Method 1: The Latin Irregular Population Based on Updating the GLA Report A irregular estimate from total population proportion B irregular estimate from foreign born proportion C irregular estimate from non-eu foreign born D irregular estimate from Removals and Departures E irregular estimate directly from survey questionnaire 1

3 - Method 2: Estimates Based on Total International Migration Methods TIM Type Estimate 1 TIM Type Estimate 2 Estimating the Second Generation Latin Americans in London Fertility Rate Method London School Pupil Data Vital Statistics Method Second Generation Estimate Validation National Estimates Conclusions References Acknowledgements Annex - Technical References A. APS 2008 Latin Sample Size and Confidence Intervals B. International Passenger Survey - IPS C. Annual Population Survey APS D. GLA Latin irregular method data requirements 2

4 Executive Summary It is not possible to accurately determine the number of Latin Americans in London from official data sources. This research explores what sources are available in an attempt to derive a robust estimate based on certain assumptions and constraints. This report explores evidence from key official data sources in order to estimate the Latin American population of London in The main official datasets considered are the 2001 Population Census, the International Passenger Survey (IPS), and the Labour Force Survey (LFS) - Annual Population Census (APS). Other administrative data sources from the Department of Work and Pensions and the UK Border Agency are considered along with Home Office asylum data and how they relate to estimations of the irregular Latin American population of London. Net migration has been the dominant component of UK population change since 1998 and in 2004 comprised 65 percent of total population change. The United Nations definition of a migrant is an individual whose country of usual residence changes for a period of 12 months or more, and this definition is used in this analysis. The working definition of a UK Latin American uses 20 Spanish and Portuguese speaking countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. These are people with a country of birth in Mexico, Guatemala, Belize, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Columbia, Uruguay, Venezuela, Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Paraguay, Cuba and the Dominican Republic. The Population Census in the UK is undertaken every 10 years and provides a somewhat blurred and out of data picture of the Latin American population of London in 2001 of 31,211 Latin American born people. The International Passenger Survey conducted each year is the only survey measuring flows into and out of the UK. Migration is derived based on nationality and intended length of stay being 12 months or more. Latin American in-migration to the UK over the period was 50,656, while out-migration was 34,051. As a result net-migration flows to the UK between 2001 and 2008 cumulatively sum to 16,605. Visitors undertaking trips of less than 12 months into the UK can also be derived from the IPS survey and this is estimated to be 3.1 million between 2001 and 2008, including transit passenger trips. However, UK Border agency passenger arrivals suggest this figure to be in the region of 2 million. 3

5 Not all migrants intending to stay for 12 months or more will actually do this and these are known as migrant switchers. Also not all visitors will leave the UK within 12 months and those that stay longer effectively become migrants. These are known as visitor switchers. Population estimations are very sensitive to the number of visitor switches within the irregular population. The report considers a number of data sources and estimation methods. The approach adopted from the various explorations of available data and method focussed on a three- stage approach dividing the Latin American population estimate into different components. First an official robust estimate of the population from the APS, second, an estimate of the irregular population consistent with the GLA London irregular population estimate, and third, an estimate of the second generation. Latin American Population Estimate The Annual Population Survey is considered to be the most robust data source available for estimating the official Latin American population of London. The project uses 2008 APS Special License Access data sets going back to APS These were the latest consistent time series available when this part of the project was undertaken and the weights used are for The 2008 date was also a common fit in conjunction with other data sets used in estimation of irregulars and the second generation. In 2009 the ONS undertook a re-weighting exercise on data sets back to The APS annual Jan-Dec 2009 set came out in late 2010 and the 2010 annual data set is not yet available, even though some quarterly ones are. However, these later data were not consistent with earlier APS series back to 2003 data used in the project and were not used, but could be updated later. The weights used are for in the series. In addition the project method is consistent with irregular estimates derived for 2007 and projected forward to 2008 from the LSE / GLA study published in The method uses forward estimation and the use of later APS series would involve more error in estimation. The APS is based on a sample survey and even though rounding is not used in this report the estimates are not thought to be accurate to below nearest This should be born in mind when reading the estimates, which could be rounded to the nearest thousand. The APS suggests the 2008 Latin American population of London to be 79,269 out of a total UK Latin American population of 130,186. London contains 61 percent of the UK Latin American population by country of birth. The largest proportions of Latin Americans in London come from Brazil, followed by Colombia and Argentina. 4

6 The APS 2008 central estimate of 79,296 is drawn from a sample of Latin Americans in London and has a 95 percent confidence interval coefficient of variation of 11.6 percent. At the 95 percent confidence limits, the London Latin population estimates are reasonably precise, but are less precise at London borough level and at the level of nationality (as represented by country of birth) within the Latin American population. At London borough level it is more robust to consider the average APS Latin American population over the period 2004 to This estimate suggests the highest concentrations of Latin Americans are to be found in the boroughs of Lambeth, Brent and Southwark. The majority of the Latin American population of London have arrived within the last 10 years, with 60 percent arriving since The Latin American population of London increased by 34 percent between 2004 and In 2004 women comprised 56 percent of the population and men 44 percent. By 2008 the numbers of Latin American women and men had both increased, with women comprising 50 percent of the Latin American population, with increasing proportions of men arriving over the period Over the period the population of Latin Americans in London is getting younger. The 0-15 age group increased by 106 percent, and the16-29 age group increased by 50 percent. The over 60s age group increased by 39 percent, with the smallest increases in the middle aged group of year olds at 3 percent. The majority of Latin Americans in London are in employment, and this proportion has been increasing. The Latin American employment rate has been increasing, rising from 57 percent in 2004 to 65 percent in In 2008 some 30 percent of male employment was in routine and semi-routine occupations and 26 percent in higher and lower managerial and professional occupations. Some 27 percent of women s employment was in routine occupations and 24 percent in managerial and professional occupations. The occupational structure of Latin employment in London has changed over the period 2004 to Both men and women have increased their employment in all occupations except lower supervisory and technical occupations. For women the largest increase has been in the routine occupations 94 percent, but employment has also been increasing in the higher professional occupations (74 percent). For men, small employers and own account workers only accounted for 3 percent of occupations in 2004, but by 2008 this had increased to 7 percent of all occupations. This represents a 258 percent growth rate in small employers and own account workers over the period. Men have also been increasing their employment in semi-routine occupations (170 percent) and intermediate occupations, with smaller growth rates in the higher managerial and professional occupations (10 percent) over the period. 5

7 Nearly half of all UK Latin American National Insurance Number registrations of 77,000 over the period are for nationals from Brazil, followed by Colombia and Mexico. A major problem with official data sources is that they are not adjusted for the irregular migrant populations of the UK. Irregular migrants are generally of three different kinds. First, illegal entrants, such as those evading formal controls or presenting false papers. Second, migrants remaining after a permitted period, such as failed asylum seekers who stay in country, overstayers who remain despite expired legal residence. Third, children born to irregular migrants, though not migrants themselves, have no right to remain. In 2001 it was estimated that 430,000 or 0.7 percent of the UK population were irregular migrants (Woodbridge, 2005) and by 2007 this is estimated to have risen to 618,000 with London containing the majority of irregular migrants at 406,300 (GLA, 2009). London Latin proportions of irregular migrants are difficult to estimate. Published Home Office asylum data is not very useful for estimating Latin American irregular migrants, as these data cannot be disaggregated by Latin American nationality without large margins of error and are more suitable for overall irregular estimation. Estimates of overstayers in the GLA (2009) irregular method are not being directly estimated from any survey source, but only appear as a residual after subtracting failed asylum seeker estimates. The overall size of the GLA estimate is questionable, and the Latin survey data for this study suggests there to be 19 percent of irregular migrants within the sample population. The overall estimates of Latin American irregulars migrants are consistent with the GLA (2009) irregular total and updated to An estimate of the proportion of all irregulars who are likely to be Latin American is based on the Latin American proportion of the foreign born population of London in Irregular Estimate The GLA study estimated that the irregular population in London in 2007 was between 281,000 and 630,000, with a central estimate of 442,000. If this estimate is updated to 2008 using the central estimate as a base, assuming the same year to year growth from previous years, the irregular population in London in 2008 could be estimated to be 477,500. To calculate the number of irregular Latin Americans the proportion of the irregular population which comes from Latin America needs to be estimated. There are several ways to do this by applying the estimated share of Latin Americans to the LSE/GLA estimate updated for The first is to apply to the GLA estimate the proportion of Londoners who come from Latin America as calculated from official figures such as the APS (1%). A second option, was to take the irregular population born in the UK out of the GLA estimate and apply to it the proportion of Latin Americans as a share of the migrant population in London (foreign born 3.2%, Non-EU foreign 6

8 born 4.2%). Another option was to apply to the GLA figure the proportion of Latin Americans as a share of the numbers of forced removals and voluntary returns (12%), assuming that these figures reflect the composition of the UK s irregular population. The irregular estimates are highly sensitive to these options and proportions. To estimate the Latin American irregular population in London in 2008, the share of Latin Americans as a proportion of all non-eu foreign-born people in London was applied to the GLA updated estimate. Using this method a central estimate of the number of irregular migrants from Latin America in London in 2008 was 17,100. This central estimate was validated as being near to the survey proportion of irregulars (19%), applied to the 2008 APS total of 79,296, giving a survey based estimate of 18,600 irregulars (assuming the APS total contained no irregulars). Second Generation Estimate The live births to Latin American born mothers in the UK is probably the best base stock data to estimate the second generation. However, the problem with these data are that not all those born within London over the period considered will remain in London. Assumptions need to be made concerning the proportion of those born in London over the period that had subsequently moved by 2008, either outside London and/or outside the UK. However, little is known about the extent of this movement among the second generation and different assumptions were made regarding this varying from zero to 20 percent out migration from London over the period. Table 2.9 estimates the stock of second generation Latin Americans in London in 2008 assuming that 10% (central), 20% (lower) and 0% (upper) moved out of London after birth. Due to lack of data for earlier years, those born before 1992 is estimated at less than 100 per year from extrapolation of data back to 1982, and produces an estimate of those aged over 16 in 2008 to be approximately Again, a 10% and 20% rate of out movement from London is applied, as not all will remain in London. Estimates of London births to Latin American born mothers since 1990 suggest there to be a possible cumulative stock of 18,121 UK born members of the Latin American community in London. However, not all these will have remained in London (producing an over estimate). This figure also excludes second-generation births before 1990, so could be regarded as an upper limit. The 2008 London stock estimate of second generation Latin Americans has a central estimate of 17,182 (lower 15,273 and upper 19,091) and assumes 10% of each cohort component of these births are no longer resident in London. Estimates of the Size of the Latin American Population in London Estimates of the size of the Latin American population in London, which include irregulars, and the second generation of Latin Americans born in the UK, can be obtained by combining the three main estimate components. 7

9 First, the APS 2008 central estimate of 79,296 is drawn from a sample of Latin Americans in London and has a 95 percent confidence interval variation which is used to produce an estimate of the upper and lower limits around this central estimate. It is also assumed irregulars have an incentive to remain hidden and that the APS contains no irregulars in this estimate. Second, the irregular Latin American migrants are derived as the share of Latin Americans as a proportion of London s Non EU foreign born applied to the LSE s central, lower and upper estimate of London s irregular population, updated for 2008 and excluding UK-born irregulars. Third, the second generation Latin Americans are derived based on the number of live births to Latin American mothers in London between 2002 and 2008, extrapolated back to 1990, with an added component for before 1990 births. The central estimate assumes 10% have left London or the UK, the upper estimate assumed no migration, while the lower estimate assumes 20% migration from London and the UK. Table 1: Estimates of the size of the Latin American population in London 2008 Estimate From Official Data Latin American Population of London 2008 Central Lower Upper Total 113,578 96, ,685 1 Latin Population ,296 70,098 88,494 2 Latin Irregular Population ,100 10,800 24,100 3 Latin Second Generation ,182 15,273 19,091 Notes 1 APS 2008 using 95% confidence interval for lower and upper estimates 2 APS 2008 Latin Share of Non EU Foreign Born 4.2% applied to updated GLA central, lower and upper irregular estimates 3 Second generation estimate from ONS vital stats, central assumes 10% movement out of London, upper 0%, lower 20% Table 1 shows these estimates for 2008 combining the above three components and gives a central estimate of the size of the 2008 Latin American community in London of 113,578. National Estimates A less statistically robust estimate for the size of the Latin American population as a whole was also derived. A London to UK shift share analysis method was used based on the assumption that irregular and the second generation estimates for London are in the same relative proportions as the London to UK APS figures. This may overestimate the size of the UK Latin American population as the London/UK proportions of irregulars and second generation may differ from the overall London/UK APS population proportions. Bearing in mind these caveats and acknowledging that the estimate cannot be validated, the central estimate for the UK Latin American population in 2008 was 186,469 (see Table 1b). This suggests that 61% of the UK Latin American population resides in London. 8

10 Table 1b: Estimates of the size of the Latin American population in the UK 2008 based on London proportions Latin American Population of UK 2008 Central Lower Upper Total 186, , ,999 1 Latin American Population , , ,122 2 Latin American Irregular Population ,074 18,373 38,432 3 Latin American Second Generation ,209 25,982 30, APS 2008 using 95% confidence interval for lower and upper estimates (8.4%) 2. Assumes irregulars are the same share as London proportion of UK APS 2008 estimates 3. Assumes second generation are the same share as London proportion of UK APS 2008 estimates 9

11 Introduction This research attempts to estimate the 2008 Latin American population of London and the extent to which it has been increasing over the last 10 years. The report explores evidence from key official base data sources, problems with them, and how they relate to differing estimation methods of the Latin American population of London. The main official datasets considered here are the 2001 Population Census, the International Passenger Survey (IPS), which is the only survey measuring flows into and out of the UK, and the Labour Force Survey (LFS) - Annual Population Census (APS). Together and in combination with other administrative data sources, relating to the irregular population of London, these sources are used to explore estimates of the Latin American population of London. New migrant populations are a key component of the socio-economic composition of the UK and a key driver of the population and labour market change in London. Population change in the UK is composed of both natural change, which results from the relationship between births and deaths, and net in-migration of overseas nationals. Net migration has been the dominant component of UK population change since 1998 and in 2004 it comprised 65% of total population change (Rees and Bodin, 2006). The increasing importance of international migration in driving demographic change in London was the recent impetus for a review of methods of how stocks and flows of new migrants in London could be estimated (Rees and Bodin, 2006). This earlier work identified that although there were a number of different sources of international migration data available in the UK, there is no common, integrated framework from which dataset are made available and no evidence of alternative methods for providing robust statistical estimates from them (Rees and Bodin, 2006:2). National Statistics use the Total International Migration (TIM) method to produce statistics on long-term migrants. This is primarily based on data from the International Passenger Survey, and modified from other survey sources for visitor and migrant switchers, where people change their plans to stay / leave from under 12 months to more than 12 months. Conceptual and Measurement Issues Visitors and migrants who enter and leave the UK do so for a number of reasons and durations. Those that stay for less than 3 months are often classed as visitors, those that stay for 3-12 months are classified as shortterm migrants, while those that stay for 12 months or more are classified as long-term migrants (Rees and Boden, 2006). All official UK migration data is focussed on long-term migrants where the intended or reported length of stay is 12 months or more. The Office of National Statistics (ONS) use the United Nations definition of a migrant as an 10

12 individual whose country of usual residence changes for a period of 12 months or more. Migration is a complex phenomenon, often driven by both push and pull factors. There are a variety of reasons migrants enter the UK, some to seek work, to study, to join existing family members, and some seeking protection from persecution. While most enter the UK legally, some enter illegally presenting serious estimation problems from official data sources. In addition, stocks and flows of migrants are affected by flows of visitor switchers (people entering the UK as visitors but staying for longer than 12 months), and migrant switchers (long term migrants changing their minds and staying for less than 12 months). Census and Surveys Migration is generally measured in two ways, either as transitions between two points in time into or out of the UK, or as counts of flow movements across UK borders. Surveys can provide information on both migrant stocks and flows depending on the questions asked and method of data collection. Point in time measures are often regarded as stock measures, while those arriving in the UK over a recent period, last year, 5 years or 10 years, where an interval is reported are often regarded as flow measures. Flows over time have an important influence on point in time stock levels. Census and surveys, such as the population Census and the LFS, measure migration as a transition from one point in time to another based on the questions relating to country of birth and residency 12 months previously. The IPS measures flows across the UK borders based on questions relating to the period of intended stay. The Labour Force survey can be used to derive estimates of migrant flows and stock estimates in its larger incarnation as the Annual Population Survey, and can be subject to validation from other data sources where possible. As a household survey the LFS measures migration that has already occurred while the IPS measures intention to migrate, which can be subject to problems of bias in the translation of intentions into reality, as in visitor and migrant switcher cases (Rendall et al, 2003). In a 2001 UK in-migration comparison between estimates from the population Census, LFS and IPS, the LFS was found to underestimate the Census based value by 26% and the IPS estimate was 10% lower than the Census value. However, the LFS was shown to provide the better spatial estimate for large geographical areas such as England, London, Rest of England, Scotland and Wales, while the IPS over estimates the proportion going to London and England, as most of the ports of entry are in London (Rendall et al. 2003). The LFS annual in-migrant flow sample is approximately 600 individuals. As with the Census, LFS in-migration flow estimate is based the place of 11

13 residence one year before, years of residence in UK, nationality and country of birth. However, there is little research comparing the Census stock estimate for migrant groups with the LFS stock estimates even for 2001, even though this can also be derived from the survey. One problem is that the base line to which estimates are being compared is the 2001 Census which takes place only every 10 years, and in itself can be a problem when estimating Latin populations and overseas nationals, as there are often serious undercounts of these populations (Woodbridge, 2005). Rees and Bodin (2003) report the need to explore the scope of using the LFS APS to derive migrant stock profiles at London Borough level, and this is undertaken in this study. Age-sex profiles can be further applied to these estimates using migrant profiles from the LFS APS. Administration and Registration Systems In the absence of formal population registration systems in the UK, there are a number of administrative systems that provide information on migrant activity, such as those of the Home Office, Department of Work and Pensions - DWP, National Health Service NHS and the Department for Education and Skills. These typically record events or moves but only record in-migration to the UK, as data on those leaving the UK are not collected by these systems, although the LFS is also undertaken within the wider EU, and could be used to pick up UK out migrants to the rest of Europe. Working Definition of the Latin American Population It is not obvious what the definition of the Latin American population of London is. A definition could comprise migrants and second-generation nationals. Even if definitional clarity can be obtained, data coding and classifications vary between data sets, and over time within the same data set, which can further compound estimation problems regarding any working definition. As a working definition of Latin Americans in the UK they generally comprise Spanish or Portuguese first language speakers from the Central and South American geographical regions. However, there are also non-spanish and Portuguese speaking countries in this region such as Guyana (British speaking) and Surinam (Dutch speaking), and some Caribbean Islands which speak Spanish which could also be included such as Cuba and the Dominican Republic (DR). There are some 20 main Spanish and Portuguese speaking countries in Latin America and the Caribbean and these are listed below. The working definition used here where possible uses these 20 Spanish and Portuguese speaking countries of Latin America and the Caribbean listed in the table 1 and excludes Guyana, Surinam, French Guiana, Haiti, Jamaica and the other Caribbean Islands. The geographical areas this corresponds 12

14 too are generally Central and South America excluding Guyana and Surinam (Dutch Guiana). Table 1 Working Definition of Latin American Mexico Guatemala Belize Honduras El Salvador Nicaragua Costa Rica Panama Argentina Brazil Chile Columbia Uruguay Venezuela Bolivia Peru Ecuador Paraguay Cuba Dominican Republic Estimation of the working definition is made more difficult from official data sources as often countries are combined into group categories making precise separation and aggregation into the Latin American working definition difficult, as with the case of evidence from the Census and APS (see below and Annex). Country of birth, and nationality is used by LFS and APS. However, the geocoding for earlier years of the LFS-APS has, for example, a code of 55 which includes Dutch and French Guiana with Bolivia, Paraguay, Peru, so separation may be difficult from LFS-APS for some earlier years. The Census has more country detail but this is currently unavailable except as specially commissioned tables from ONS. This has been partly undertaken by the GLA and estimates from the 2001 Census use this GLA data source (GLA, 2005). A person s nationality is that which is shown on their passport. However, nationality can change over time as foreign nationals who have lived in the UK long enough can apply for British Nationality. In contrast country of birth can differ from nationality and a persons country of birth cannot vary and is often regarded as a more robust variable when analysis of change over time is undertaken (ONS 2009). This analysis where possible uses country of birth, but tables based on nationality are produced from the IPS as country of birth is not available. Estimates from Available Official Data Sets This section looks at the data set evidence that can be used to estimate the Latin American population of the UK and London. Summary tables are presented along with a discussion of problems associated with the estimates. 13

15 The Population Census 2001 The Population Census in the UK is under taken every 10 years and provides a somewhat blurred and out of date snap shot of the stock of Latin American population of England and Wales and that of London. Evidence from the 2001 Census commissioned by the GLA (2005) suggests the Latin American population of London to have been 31,411 and of England and Wales to have been 58,411. The London total represents approximately 53 percent of the total Latin population, with 18,062 being women and 3,313 under 16 years of age. In London Colombians form the largest single Latin American population group 9,035 in 2001, while nationally Brazilians formed the largest group at 14,555. Table 2: Census 2001 Latin American Population of London Country of Birth England & Wales Greater London All All < % London % Women Women All Countries UK Born Not UK Born 52,041,921 7,172,101 1,448,243 4,832, , ,700,804 47,398,830 5,229,187 1,303,129 3,258, , ,666,885 4,643,091 1,942, ,114 1,574, , ,035,573 Latin America 58,411 31,211 3,313 26,677 1, ,062 Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Cuba Ecuador Mexico Peru Uruguay Venezuela El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras 6,371 2, , ,455 1, ,555 8, , ,783 4,720 2, , ,136 12,039 9,035 1,212 7, ,304 1, ,964 2, , ,247 4,746 1, , ,784 1, , , ,725 1, , , Panama, Nicaragua, Costa Rica 1, note: figures exclude Paraguay, Belize and DR Source, GLA 2005 The figures exclude persons whose country of birth is Paraguay and Belize since the GLA figures include Paraguay in an all other countries category. The figures also exclude the persons from the DR, but are the closest match to the working definition used here that can be obtained from the GLA data in its present form. 14

16 The 2001 Census was undertaken in April 2001 and is a highly detailed study which has been used to compare LFS and IPS estimates against (Rendall et al. 2003). However, while the census is adjusted for undercounts generally, it is not adjusted for the foreign born migrant population, either regular or irregular. In addition, the main draw back with using the Census figures on the Latin American population of London are that the figures only relate to 2001 stocks and are out of date. International Passenger Survey - IPS The IPS data can be used to estimate the total Latin American net migration per year, which depending on the net annual flow will affect the stock of Latin American population since The IPS is a quarterly sample of individual respondents undertaking an international trip into or out of the UK. Migration is estimated based on the question of the intension to stay for a specified period. It is the only source of data on in and out migration to and from the UK, but has a small sample size of 3100 observations per year. The 95% confidence interval for the IPS survey is +/- 2.9% for overseas arrivals, and +/- 1.3% for UK residents. The value of IPS deteriorates with increasing spatial scale, but has data geocoded by government office region. The sampling frame is based on UK entry and exit ports and London is over represented due to the importance of Heathrow and Gatwick in the survey. The sample is weighted based on passenger movement statistics produced by BAA and CAA for air traffic and the Department of Transport for sea traffic and allowances are made for transit passengers not passing through the passport control which is the IPS counting line. The IPS questionnaire first establishes nationality from passport control at air or sea port, then those who are overseas residents and those who are UK residents, based on the country in which the person was living for the last 12 months. The international migration definition is a person changing country of usual residence for a period of 12 months or more. In terms of Latin American migration, the survey data can be used to estimate Latin American IN migration, and OUT migration, in order to estimate annual Latin American NET migration. In migration can be estimated from the data by deriving the overseas residents arrivals by air and by sea (including the channel tunnel) of Latin American nationals who intend to stay for 12 months or more. Out migration can be derived from departures of Latin American UK residents who intend to live outside the UK for 12 months or more. Over the period 2001 to 2008 Latin American in-migration was cumulatively 50,656 according to this source and was nearly as big as the 2001 resident 15

17 Latin American population for England and Wales given in the Census. However, out migration of Latin American UK residents was approximately 34,051, giving a cumulative net migration into the UK by Latin American nationals of approximately 16,605. These data are shown in the graph and table below. The data in the graph below are weighted but unadjusted for visitor and migrant switchers. According to this evidence the largest nationality group of Latin American net migrants into the UK over the period are from Colombia 4,968, followed by Mexico 4,273 and Brazil 2,775. The greater numbers of in migrants and out migrants are from Brazil, followed by Colombia. Figure 1 Latin American Net Migration Table 3: Latin American UK International Migration Flows Nationality Cuba Dominican Republic Belize Argentina Brazil IN MIG OUT MIG NET MIG 1, , ,176 2, ,618 16,842 2,775 Mexico 7,568 3,295 4,273 Bolivia Chile 2,233 2, Colombia 8,570 3,602 4,968 Ecuador 1,817 1, Paraguay Peru

18 Uruguay Venezuela 2,985 1,480 1,504 Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Panama Latin America 50,656 34,051 16,605 Notes: Source IPS Includes air, sea, tunnel arrivals and departures In Migration = Intends to stay for > 12 months Out Migration = Intends to Stay for > 12 months sample size is approx 30,00 per year weighted by final weight to represent all IPS passenger trips Latin American Visitor Flows to the UK Visitor trips are flows of trips to and from the UK by Latin Americans that are for less than 12 months, and mainly consist of tourists and short-term migrants. The table below shows evidence of Latin American IN visitor flows and OUT flows of Latin American nationals resident in the UK from the IPS These are not migrants as such but a proportion may subsequently become migrants if they overstay. Estimates of the Latin American population are likely to be highly sensitive to these overstay proportions. Table 4 Latin American Visitor Trips into and out the UK IN Visits OUT Visits Nationality Cuba 34,222 8,306 Dominican Republic 15,593 1,104 Belize 5,623 3,516 Argentina 361,042 64,437 Brazil 1,103, ,873 Mexico 819, ,634 Bolivia 39,226 17,085 Chile 151,502 47,815 Colombia 201,103 72,375 Ecuador 29,363 19,461 Paraguay 6,431 3,077 Peru 51,350 16,927 Uruguay 37,383 3,076 Venezuela 158,292 37,769 Costa Rica 27,054 4,725 El Salvador 17,838 2,635 Guatemala 18,409 2,338 Honduras 14,159 2,520 17

19 Nicaragua 5,006 1,679 Panama 13,681 6,813 Latin America 3,110, ,164 Notes: Source IPS Includes air, sea, tunnel arrivals and departures In Visits = Intends to stay for < 12 months Out Visits = Intends to stay for < 12 months sample size is approx 30,00 per year weighted by final weight to represent all passenger trips Over the period Visitor inflows by Latin American nationals into the UK were just over 3.1 million trips, the largest proportion coming from Brazil, followed by Mexico and Colombia. Visitor inflows have been increasing over the period from 281,000 in 2002 to 551,000 by 2008 (see annex). Over the same period visitor out flows of Latin American nationals resident in the UK were approximately 749,000, with again Brazil, Mexico and Colombian nationals having higher proportions. Visitor outflows have also been increasing over the period from 73,000 in 2002 to 119,000 by The IPS is the only UK survey measuring flows into and out of the UK. The trips counted refer to visits rather than visitors and the same individual can be counted twice if undertaking 2 trips in the 3 month period, although the extent of double counting is unknown from this data source. There are also estimation problems associated with net migration since it is based on the question of intended length of stay. Not all migrants intending to stay for 12 months or more will actually do this. These are known as migrant switchers. Also not all visitors will leave the UK within 12 months and those that stay longer effectively become migrants. These are known as visitor switchers. Visitor Switchers: It has been suggested by ONS (2008) that between July and December 2007 the estimated number of visitors who switched to become migrants was 13% for IN flows of non-eea citizens and 11% for OUT flows of non-eea citizens, and EEA citizens to non-eu countries (ONS, 2008). Migrant Switchers: In the July to December 2007 period migrant switcher proportions are reported by ONS to be 4.2% for inflow and 3.9% for outflow. The method estimates visitor switchers from the count of respondents who state their intension of being long-stay visitors (6-11 months) and don t knows possibly 12 months. For non-eea respondent in flows, 25% of longstay visitors and 75% of don t knows are classed as switchers. 18

20 For outflows, 25% and 75% parameters are used for both EEA and non-eea people travelling to non-eu countries, and 50% of don t knows are used for EEA citizens travelling to EU countries (Rees and Bodin, 2006:23). TIM methods attempt to adjust for these switchers along with asylum seekers, and these are explored within the methods of estimation section. The Labour Force Survey Annual Population Survey The Local Labour Force Survey is a quarterly sample survey and the spring quarter contains migration questions. The Local LFS has information at Local Authority District Level and can be used in estimation of both sock and migration flows of Latin Americans in the UK. The Annual Population Survey (APS) is an ONS major survey series, which aims to provide data that can produce reliable estimates at local authority level of population. It comprises key variables from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and combines results from five different sources: the LFS (waves 1 and 5); the English Local Labour Force Survey (LLFS), the Welsh Labour Force Survey (WLFS), the Scottish Labour Force Survey (SLFS) and the Annual Population Survey Boost Sample. The APS aims to provide enhanced annual data for England, covering a target sample of at least 510 economically active persons for each Unitary Authority (UA)/Local Authority District (LAD) and at least 450 in each Greater London Borough. In combination with local LFS boost samples such as the WLFS and SLFS, the survey provides estimates for a range of indicators. This analysis uses the Special Licence version which contains more detailed geographical, industry, occupation, health and age variables. APS data sets are produced quarterly and contain 12 months of data referring to approximately 360,000 persons per dataset. The sample is weighted by application of a person weight to each sample record to reflect the wider population, but the extent to which this is adjusted for foreign-born population is unclear. The table below shows estimates of Latin Americans by country of birth living and working in the UK and London, and by individual London borough. These data estimate the 2008 Latin American population of London to be 79,269 out of a total UK Latin American population of 130,186. London contains 61 percent of the UK Latin American population by country of birth. At the 95% confidence limits, the UK and London Latin population estimates are reasonably precise (see annex). The Latin American population of London has continued to rise between 2004 and 2008 despite down turns in estimated numbers in 2007, although this may be related to the coding bias prior to 2007 (see annex). The 2008 Latin American population estimates for London show Brent to have the highest population at 10,470, followed by Kensington and Chelsea 6,156 19

21 and Westminster 5,310. Between 2004 and 2006 Lambeth had the highest estimated Latin American population, followed by Southwark (with the exception of 2005). However, this source also shows estimates for Bexley and Redbridge as having no Latin population in 2008, this is related to the fact that no Latin population was sampled in these boroughs. The 2008 borough estimates need to be treated with extreme caution as the Latin sample size is very small in some boroughs, making these estimates less than precise (see Annex). At borough level it may be more useful to consider the average Latin American population over the period 2004 to 2008 for a more robust estimate. This puts Lambeth as the highest (6,209) followed by Brent and Southwark. There is some evidence that the LFS under-estimates non-eea citizens by 15 to 20%, but geographical estimation of the distribution of in migrant population from the APS is thought to be better than that from the IPS (Rendall et. al, 2003). Table 5: APS Latin American Population Estimates for London and the UK Area Average Share of Average UK 100, , , , , London 58,958 68,351 70,652 71,762 79, City of London Barking and Dagenham Barnet 4,031 2,163 2,771 2,657 4,824 3, Bexley Brent 2,782 4,894 3,120 9,538 10,470 6, Bromley 345 1, , Camden 2,958 3,205 6,606 3,173 4,643 4, Croydon 993 1,921 2, ,089 1, Ealing 315 1,517 2,293 1,096 1,128 1, Enfield Greenwich 198 1,485 1,091 1, Hackney 3,255 3,625 2,894 3,386 1,592 2, Hammersmith and Fulham 2,453 3,672 1,835 1,921 1,017 2, Haringey 2,463 2,239 2,636 1,990 1,778 2, Harrow Havering Hillingdon Hounslow 173 1, , Islington 1,856 2,983 2,289 4,015 4,540 3, Kensington and Chelsea 3,061 3,544 3,397 5,420 6,156 4, Kingston upon Thames 1, , Lambeth 7,630 6,150 6,885 5,581 4,800 6, Lewisham 1,645 5,617 4,147 2,421 2,243 3, Merton 2,662 2, ,389 1,256 1, Newham 1, ,211 4,098 4,028 3, Redbridge Richmond upon Thames 3,166 1,938 1,847 2,100 1,938 2,

22 Southwark 4,376 2,971 7,407 4,822 4,819 4, Sutton , Tower Hamlets 831 1, ,877 3,942 2, Waltham Forest 2,457 2,583 1,232 2,596 1,624 2, Wandsworth 1,740 2,563 2,557 1,941 5,159 2, Westminster 3,980 3,646 4,200 3,759 5,310 4, Note Table based on Latin American Country of Birth 2004, 2005, 2006 includes population from the Other Caribbean Source: Annual Population Survey Figure 2 APS estimate of the 2008 Latin American Population of London by Borough The APS 2008 is the most up to date survey available for Latin American population estimation. The detailed geographical level of the survey mean it can also be used for direct local authority population estimation, but estimation of the Latin population at borough level is more difficult. However, care must be taken in comparisons over time with APS estimates of Latin Americans in London since estimates of Latin American nationals varies over time due to changes in coding groups used. Both in 2008 and 2007 nationality and country of birth codes are by individual countries while those for 2004, 2005 and 2006 groups of countries are used such as other Central American, other South American, and other Caribbean. Figures for these years compared to 2007, 2008 are slightly larger since nationals from the DR are included in the Other Caribbean code which includes all other Caribbean countries except Barbados, Cuba, Jamaica, Trinidad & Tobago, and the West Indies. 21

23 The most up to date and robust official estimates of Latin Americans in London can be obtained form the 2007 and 2008 APS years, but care must be taken in boroughs where zero population are recorded. Likewise the 2008 Latin population of London as estimated from the APS 2008 suggest the largest Latin nationality group to be from Brazil followed by Colombia and Argentina, and the magnitude of these proportions are also reflected at UK level. Table 6 Latin American Population by Country of Birth 2008 Latin American Population of London and UK by Country of Birth London UK All Latin Americans 71,762 79, , ,186 Argentina 4,683 5,224 11,936 11,696 Bolivia ,449 Brazil 33,420 41,380 45,074 53,042 Belize , Chile 1,298 1,907 5,107 5,893 Colombia 17,934 15,271 26,939 24,040 Costa Rica Cuba 1,286 1,489 1,872 1,946 Dominican Republic 631 1, ,680 Ecuador 2,331 4,557 2,969 5,959 El Salvador 539 1,046 1,081 1,127 Guatemala Honduras Mexico 1,035 1,054 6,099 7,112 Nicaragua Panama , Paraguay Peru ,229 2,804 Uruguay ,298 Venezuela 1,371 1,116 5,116 4,342 Central America Not otherwise specified 0 0 1, South America Not otherwise specified 5,237 2,534 8,388 4,543 Source APS 2007 and 2008 However, care must be taken in use of these data as some countries such as Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala have zero or near zero sample representation. The 95% confidence limits for the 2008 nationality estimates suggest them to be not very precise in comparison with the overall Latin population estimate. To base any sample population grossing weight on the nationality distribution estimated from the APS 2008 alone would not be very robust (see annex A). 22

24 London Latin Americans by Arrival, Age, Sex, and Economic Activity The APS 2008 suggests that some 57 percent of Latin Americans in the UK arrived after 2000, while 79 percent arrived after In London some 60 percent of Latin Americans arrived after 2000 and 87 percent after This suggests the majority of the Latin American population of London have arrived within the last 10 years. Table 7 Latin American UK Population by Year of Arrival in UK Year of arrival to UK UK Latin Americans 2008 Percent London Latin Americans 2008 Percent , , , , , , , , , , , , Total 129, , Note: APS 2008 missing years of arrival for some entries does not sum to 2008 UK and London total Figure 3 Year of Arrival in the UK 23

25 Evidence from the APS 2004 suggests that women comprised 56 percent of the Latin American population of London and men 44 percent. By 2008 the numbers of women and men had both increased, with women comprising a lower 50% of the Latin American population, with increasing proportions of men over the period. This is shown in figure 3. Fig 4 - London Latin Americans by Sex The overall age profile of Latin Americans in London is shown in Figure 4. The Latin American population of London increased by 34% between 2004 and 2008 (table 6). While there have been increases in population across all age groups the largest increases are in the younger age groups. On average the increasing population of Latin Americans in London is getting younger. The 0-15 age group increased by 106%, and the16-29 age group increased by 50%. The over 60s age group increased by 39%, with the smallest increases in the middle aged group of year olds (3%). Table 8 - Age Structure of Latin American Population of London Age % Change ,904 5, ,582 29, ,183 31, ,436 9, ,853 2, ALL 58,958 79,

26 Fig 5 London Latin American Age Profile Analysis of Latin American economic activity in London from the APS between 2004 and 2008 suggests the majority of Latin Americans to be in employment, and this proportion has been increasing over the period. Latin Americans have an increasing employment rate rising from 57% in 2004 to 65% in Table 9 London Latin American Activity Activity % Change In employment 33,777 51, ILO unemployed 2,919 2, Inactive 19,358 18,770-3 Under 16 2,904 5, ALL 58,958 79, Apart from the a large growth in Latin American children of school age in London over the period, there has been a 54% increase in those in employment feeding into higher employment rates within this sub-population. Over the period there was a 10% decline in unemployed Latin Americans in London and a 3% decline in those inactive. 25