ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND MODELLING OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT MONTHLY EXPENDITURE ON INCOME IN THE SOUTH WEST ZONE OF NIGERIA

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1 IJRRAS 7 () November df ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND MODELLING OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT MONTHLY EXPENDITURE ON INCOME IN THE SOUTH WEST ZONE OF NIGERIA Olawuwo Simeon, Ogunleye Timothy Abidogun * & Olaleye Michael Olugbenga. Deartment of Statistics, Federal Polytechnic Ede, Private Mail Bag, Ede, Osun State, Nigeria.. Deartment of Budget, Planning, Research & Statistics, Ejigbo Local Government, State of Osun, Nigeria.. Deartment of Commerce and Economic Studies, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Tech., Juja, Kenya. * & contact corresonding author: thomsond@gmail.com & ABSTRACT This aer resents statistical analyses and modelling of the thirty local governments monthly eenditure on income in the State of Osun, Nigeria. Three different sources of local governments income: Internally Generated Revenue (IGR), Statutory Allocation (SA) and Value Added Ta (VAT) were considered as redictor variables while eenditure was taken as resonse. Multile Linear Regression was used as statistical tool. Data sets were sourced from Osun State Ministry of Local Government and Chieftaincy Affairs over a eriod of sity months. Scatter lots were drawn to show the kind of relationshis eisting between eenditure and each of the three sources of income. Before conducting ANOVA, the data sets were insected for normality assumtion using normal robability lot of the standardized residual in the R statistical ackage. The lot revealed that normality assumtion was not violated. Homoscedasticity assumtion was further checked by the use of residual lot and Fligner-Killeen test, and it was revealed that error variances were homogeneous through-out. The tolerance of both autocorrelation and multicollinearity roblems were further insected using Durbin-Watson and Farrar-Glauber tests, and it was discovered that none of these roblems eisted in the data sets. After the alication of All Possible Regression Method of Selection of the Best Regression Model, Statutory Allocation was recommended as the rincial determinant of the local government eenditure in the South West Zone of Nigeria. Keywords: IGR, SA, VAT, ANOVA, R statistical ackage, residual lot and Fligner-Killeen test, Durbin-Watson and Farrar-Glauber tests and All Possible Regression Method.. INTRODUCTION A geograhical entity having a well-defined olitical boundary with distinct settlements such as towns, villages and hamlets is simly termed to be Local Government. In Nigeria, Local Government is defined as the concetion of a territorial, non-sovereign community ossessing the legal right and the necessary organ to regulate its own affairs. This in turn resuoses the eistence of local authority with ower to act indeendently of eternal control as well as the articiation of the local community in the administration of its own affairs. On the other hand, the 976 Guidelines for Local Government Reforms in Nigeria defined Local Government as government at local level, eercised through reresentative councils established by law to eercise secific owers within defined areas. These owers should give the councils substantial control over local affairs as well as staff and institutional/financial owers to initiate and direct the rovision of services and, to determine and imlement rojects so as to comlement the activities of both State and the Federal Governments in their areas, and to ensure through devolution of functions of these councils and through the active articiation of the eole and the traditional institutions that local initiative and resonse to local needs are maimized. Therefore, these definitions connote the eistence of a legal authority for the reresentatives of a non-sovereign community to eercise owers in the rovisions of socio-olitical and economic services over a geograhical area. Thus, the relevance of a local government resides in the ability of its organs to meet the socio-olitical and economic eectations of the eole in the area under its jurisdiction. It is believed that local government system eists in every nation of the world, but with variations in its essential features such as constitutional status, historical structure and level of autonomy []. That is why the concet of local government has also been seen from various ersectives, which in real term has led to various definitions by rominent scholars and ractitioners. One of the definitions ut forward by a rominent writer saw it as a olitical authority set u by a nation or state as subordinate authority for the urose of disersing or decentralizing olitical ower []. In his own view, [], defined local government as a searate tier of government that enjoys some reasonable measures of autonomy, with elected reresentatives as officials esecially in a democratic setting. [5] summarized what local government stands for, when he noted that it is characterized by its autonomy, legal identity, territory, oulation, localness, democratic reresentation, secificity of owers, and uniformity of structure. Hence, 00

2 IJRRAS 7 () November 0 the success and effectiveness of local government deends largely on the financial resources available and the way these resources are utilized. However, Revenue Generation in the local government can be defined as the sum of legislated or legitimate income usually in monetary term collected from citizenry for the urose of rural develoments and for meeting other social needs of eole. Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) is the revenue (income) generated in the form of caital receits and taes, which includes local rates, market taes and levies ecluding any market where state finance is involved, bicycle, truck canoe, wheelbarrow and cart fees, other than a mechanical roelled truck, ermits and fines charged by customary courts, local government business investment, tenement rate, fees from schools, shos and kiosks rates, on and off liquor license fees, slaughter slab fees, marriage, birth and death registration fees. Other sources of IGR include naming of street registration fee ecluding any street in the state caital, right of occuancy fees on lands in the rural areas ecluding those collectable by the federal and state governments, cattle ta ayable by cattle farmers only, merriment and road closure levy, religious laces establishment ermit fees, signboard and advertisement ermit fees, radio and television license fees (other than radio and television transmitter), wrong arking charges, hackney ermit fee, earnings from commercial undertakings e.g. sales of farm roducts, sales of eggs and fowls, sales of fertilizer, income from iggery, fishery and snailery, rent on local government roerties e.g. rent on staff quarters, local government conference halls, ambulances, etc [6]. Statutory Allocation is the amount of money shared on monthly basis by the Federal Government from the Federation Account to all government agencies/commissions and establishments from which local government is included. Over the years, Nigeria has been searching for an equitable revenue allocation formula that will meet the yearnings and asirations of its federating units. The search has remained largely elusive because the debate on revenue allocation, rather than focus on how to meet the nation s economic imeratives, has often been hindered in geoolitical and ethnocentric considerations. Paradoically, however, the debate has also emhasized more on revenue sharing than on generating. In the resent time, 0.6 er cent from the Federal Account is being shared to Local Governments in Nigeria while 6.7 and 5.68 er cents are for State and Federal Governments resectively. In Nigeria, section 7(6) of the 999 constitution rovides that (a) the National Assembly shall make rovisions of statutory allocations of ublic revenue to local government councils in the federation and, (b) the Houses of Assembly of states shall make rovisions for statutory allocation of ublic revenue to local government councils within the state, [4]. In this resect, Value Added Ta (VAT) is simly defined as the amount of money generated by state government through indirect taation and, is shared on monthly basis to all government agencies including local governments. It is a form of a consumtion ta. From the ersective of the buyer, it is a ta on the urchase rice. From that of the seller, it is a ta only on the added to a roduct, material, or service. And, from an accounting oint of view, by this stage of its manufacture or distribution, the manufacturer remits to the government the difference between these two amounts, and retains the rest for themselves to offset the taes they had reviously aid on the inuts. The deductions made from the salaries of all workers in both state and local governments (Pay As You Earn - PAYE) are arts of Value Added Ta. From the reliable source, it has been established that 0 er cent of all taes collected by the State Government of Osun is being distributed accordingly to each of the thirty local governments. Further to the submissions above, it can be observed that the word eenditure has not been mentioned. At the local government level, eenditure means eenses incurred on articular rojects or rogrammes. It could be divided into three major categories: caital eenditure, recurrent eenditure and consolidated revenue fund charges. Any eenditure (eenses) incurred on hysical rojects such as constructions of roads, buildings, bridges, urchase of machinery (equiment) and so on are all referred to as caital eenditure. On the other hand, any eenses incurred for the smooth running of administrative activities such as ayment of salaries, imrests, and any other money considered to be overhead cost are all recurrent eenditure. Consolidated Revenue Fund Charges (CRFC) is the eenditure item that takes its first charge on the available revenue of the local government. It is a mandatory eenditure item that is not subject to the whims and carices of the local government. Eamles of such an eenditure item includes contribution to teachers salaries, five er cent of the allocation to the traditional councils (rulers), one er cent of the allocation to local government service commission as staff training funds, five er cent of the allocation as contribution to the state owned university, and so on; all these had been legislated by the State of Osun House of Assembly. But in the resent study, all these eenditure items are classified as total eenditure.. Objectives of the Study To know the most reliable source of income that determines the eenditure of local government in Osun State. To determine suitable model connecting local government eenditure with income. 0

3 IJRRAS 7 () November 0 To determine the amount of variation in the eenditure that can be elained by only the reliable source of income obtained.. METHODOLOGY Simle Correlation, Coefficient of Determination and Multile Regression Analysis including All Possible Regression Method of Selection of the Best Regression Model were used for this research work. Total eenditure of the thirty Local Governments of the State of Osun (including the Ife-East Area Office) was considered as deendent variable and the three rincial sources of revenue: Internally Generated Revenue (IGR), Statutory Allocation (SA) and Value Added Ta (VAT) were used as indeendent variables.. Statistical Legend * y = Total Eenditure of the thirty local governments within the State of Osun (including Ife-East Area Office); * = Internally Generated Revenue (IGR); * = Statutory Allocation (SA); and * = Value Added Ta (VAT).. DATA ANALYSIS. Scatter Plots of Individual Source of Income with Eenditure of the Local Governments Some researchers consider scatter lot as the first ste in regression analysis. Though, it has been established in some literatures that scatter lot suggests the tye of relationshi that eists between resonse and elanatory variables; it is drawn with a view to enabling us studying the kind of relationshi that eists between the resonse variable and each of the elanatory variables. From figures and, it is evident that no linear relationshis eist between Internally Generated Revenue and Eenditure as well as between Value Added Ta and Eenditure whereas figure ictures out a valid linear relationshi between Statutory Allocation and Eenditure. The review of the tye of relationshi(s) has already been identified through these various scatter lots.. Confirmation of Normality Assumtion on the Data Sets One of the basic assumtions for the authenticity of analysis of variance to hold is for normality assumtion to eist. In this study, Normal Q-Q Plot is used to confirm whether or not normality assumtion is not violated. This is also called Normal Probability Plot of the Standardized Residuals, which is a lot of the ordered standardized residuals versus the so-called normal scores. The normal scores are what we would eect to obtain if we take a samle of size n from a oulation having equal but unknown variances. If the residuals are normally distributed, the ordered residuals should be aroimately the same as the ordered normal scores. Under good atmosheric condition of normality assumtion, the lot should resemble a (nearly) straight line. From table 4, it is inferred that normality assumtion is not violated when R statistical ackage is emloyed. Other means to confirm normality assumtion in regression analysis include the use of Histogram of the Standardized Residuals and Shairo-Wilk Test of Normality.. Confirmation of Homoscedasticity Assumtion on the Data Sets A situation where the variance of the residuals is affected by at least one redictor variable is simly termed to be heteroscedasticity. Another imortant assumtion for validity of analysis of variance is equality of error variances. This means that the errors / residuals must have equal variances. If these errors fail to have equal (sometimes unknown) variances, they will not behave well. Secifically, the assumtion is such that residuals are normally, identically and indeendently distributed with mean zero and constant but unknown variance leading to the test that all samles came from oulations with identical variances [7]. In the resent study, residual lot is emloyed for testing homoscedasticity assumtion. This is a significant lot for checking homogeneity of samle variances. It has been reorted in some literatures that if the residual lot aears structureless by having about the same etension of scatter of the residuals around zero for each of the variables (under study), it is an indication of homogeneous variances. Therefore, as a result of the structureless aearance of the residual lot in figure 5, then homoscedasticity assumtion is not violated in the data sets. To further confirm reliability of the samle error variances, Fligner-Killeen Test, which is a median test of the null that the variances in each of the indeendent variables are the same, was introduced, and the result revealed from R statistical ackage that - is.5 with K-squared of 7.6 with degree of freedom of. This is an indication that homogeneity assumtion is not violated since - is greater than of the tye I error ( = 0.05). 0

4 IJRRAS 7 () November 0.4 Test for the Eistence of Autocorrelation Problem on the Data Sets Autocorrelation roblem arises when the errors fail to be indeendent of each other. It is eected that errors (residuals) should be indeendent whatever the case may be, but if this condition does not hold as eected, we say there is roblem of autocorrelation in the data sets. Therefore, one of the standard assumtions in the regression model is that the error terms are uncorrelated. Correlation in the error term suggests that there is additional information in the data that has not been eloited in the current model. When the observations have a natural sequential order, the correlation is referred to as autocorrelation. In some literatures, Durbin-Watson Statistic, which is a test that is aimed at determining whether there is deendency among the successive s of the error term, is considered most reliable and mostly used test for detecting eistence of autocorrelation in regression analysis. Since du (.77) d cal (.98) (4 du ), we accet the null hyothesis of no autocorrelation and conclude that autocorrelation roblem can be tolerated in the data sets..5 Test for the Eistence of Multicollinearity Problem on the Data Sets You will recall that one of the assumtions of regression analysis is that the elanatory variables are indeendent of each other, that is, two or more elanatory variables do not tend to move together in the same attern. When this assumtion fails, we say there is multicollinearity among the indeendent variables. Therefore, a crucial condition for the alication of ordinary least squares is that the redictor variables are not erfectly linearly related. The term multicollinearity is used to denote the resence of linear relationshis among elanatory variables. If the elanatory variables are erfectly linearly correlated, that is, if the correlation coefficient for these variables is equal to unity, the arameters become indeterminate; it is imossible to obtain numerical s for each arameter searately and the method of least squares breaks down. At the other etreme if the elanatory variable are not intercorrelated at all (that is if the correlation coefficient is equal to zero), the variables are called orthogonal and there are no roblems concerning the estimates of the coefficients, at least so far as multicollinearity is concerned. In a nutshell, orthogonality in regression refers to a situation whereby all redictor variables are totally indeendent of one another. Eistence of multicollinearity could be sourced from numerous angles most esecially from data deficiency. Since cal (=6.88) is less than ; 0.05 (=7.8), we do not reject the null hyothesis which states that no multicollinearity eists, thus it is reasonable to conclude that there is no multicollinearity roblem in the data sets..6 Estimation of Regression Parameters by Ordinary Least Squares Here, we resent estimates of regression arameters using ordinary least squares technique. Table I resents summary of results for the estimation and test of significance of regression arameters. It is evident from the results that only statutory allocation ( ) is significant since its (=0.00) is less than significance level (0.05). It is therefore reasonable to buttress the inference observed from the review of scatter lots shown in figures - resectively..6. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) on the three Sources of Income under Consideration The aim of this method is to slit the total variation of a variable (around its mean) into comonents which may be attributed to secific (additive) causes. Let s assume that there is only one systematic factor which influences the variable being studied. Any variation not accounted for by this (elanatory) factor is assumed to be random (or chance) variation, due to various random haenings. Since all assumtions underlying the alication of analysis of variance are satisfied, it is reasonable to continue with the use of analysis of variance to verify the reliability of the estimates of the regression coefficients in table I. hence, the ANOVA table resented in table II reveals that the full regression model is not adequate since its (=0.674) is greater than significance level (0.05). The imlication of this is that there is no linear relationshi between the local government eenditure and the three sources of income simultaneously, thereby calling for variable screening. As a result of this, we cannot reliably conclude that the estimates obtained in table I can be used to model the relationshi between eenditure and the three sources of income under consideration..6. Interretation of the Coefficients of Correlation and Determination So far, there is a clear indication that only statutory allocation can be statistically modeled with eenditure at the local government level. Therefore, results in table III can further confirm the assertion such that only statutory allocation has aroimately 96% ositive linear relationshi with the eenditure of local government. The imlication of this is that the rate at which increase or decrease in statutory allocation leads to corresonding increase or decrease in eenditure is aroimately 96%. From the same table III, coefficient of determination is 0

5 IJRRAS 7 () November 0 9% indicating that only 8% variation cannot be elained by statutory allocation. The imlication of this is that 9% of all financial activities deend on statutory allocation at the local government level..6. R -Criterion under All Possible Regression Method of Selection of the Best Regression Model This method requires that all regression models involving one redictor, two redictors and so on be fitted and the best model is selected according to aforementioned criterion. Suose we have a design consisting of -redictors,,,, we shall assume that the intercet term be included in all models. It should be noted that the samle size must be greater than the number of arameters as we already have it in this study. Since we have only three redictor variables, there should be ( ) models to be artitioned into -grous indicating that eight models are eected to be built and artitioned into three as follows: st Grou: nd Grou: y y y y 0.48 y y rd Grou: y However, the models in each grou are arranged in order of magnitude and the leader in each grou is selected and comared according to R - Criterion. If two models belonging to different grous have equal or almost equal on the scale of criterion used, then the model with fewer redictor variables is selected as the best of all. This is called the Princile of Parsimony. From table IV, it is inferred that after the alication of the rincile of arsimony, only enters the solution meaning that statutory allocation is statistically significant in connection with the local government eenditure. The imlication of this result is that only statutory allocation can, therefore, be modeled with the eenditure. Finally, the suitable model connecting local government eenditure with income y is obtained as follows:. This could be interreted that Local Government Eenditure in the State of Osun is eected to increase by aroimately 9% when, thus, statutory allocation increases by 00%. 4. CONCLUSION From all indications, it is obvious that statutory allocation at the local government level determines the amount of eenditure to be incurred on monthly basis. Sequel to the analyses so far, it is reasonable to conclude that if there is no allocation from the Federation Account to the local governments in Nigeria, so many rojects including salaries and wages of both ermanent and adhoc workers would stand still even many of the overhead costs will not be incurred as at when due. Therefore, statutory allocation is recommended as the rincial determinant of the local government eenditure in the South West Zone of Nigeria. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The efforts of Prof Oyejola, Benjamin A. and Dr Adejumo A. Olusola of the Deartment of Statistics, University of Ilorin, Nigeria cannot be measured in connection with the rearation of this aer; that of Pastor R. Marcus Alabison of the Deartment of Statistics, Federal Polytechnic, Ede, Osun State of Nigeria is also imortant. In addition, A. Z. Solomon (Pa Solo) of Osun State Polytechnic, Iree, State Government of Osun in Nigeria is a very crucial adviser who has, in one way or the other, contributed immensely to the success of this aer. More imortantly, suort and understanding received from Elder A. A. Adewusi (Director of Budget, Planning, Research and Statistics, Ejigbo Local Government, Osun State) cannot be quantified. 04

6 Eenditure Samle Quantiles Eenditure IJRRAS 7 () November 0 REFERENCES [] Agi, S.P.I. (00), Local Government as a Third Tier of Government, (ed), Local Government Administration and Grassroot Democracy in Nigeria, Calabar: University of Calabar Press. [] Akan O. (008), The Legislative Arm in the Third Tier of Government in Nigeria: Framework, Functions and Inter- Relations. Paer resented at -Day Worksho held at Modotel, Oweri for newly elected Local Government Officers, organized by the Presidency, December -5. [] Ezeani, E.O. (006), Fundamentals of Public Administration, Enugu: Snaa Press Ltd. [4] Federal Reublic of Nigeria (999), Constitution: Reroduced by National Orientation Agency (NOA). [5] Nwofia, J.E. (00), Communication and Budgeting for Inter-Generational Equity in the Nigerian Local Government. The Neus International/Interdiscilinary Journal of Communication Studies, Communication No., July. [6] Onah, R.C. (995), The Functions of Local Government, in M. Ikejiani- Clark and F.C. Okoli (ed), Local Government Administration in Nigeria: Current Problems and Future Challenges, Lagos: Mangrove Publication. [7] Zar, J.H. (999): Biostatistical Analysis, Prentice Hall, New Jersey, 4 th ed. APPENDIX Figure : Scatter Plot showing the relationshi between Internally Generated Revenue and Eenditure. Figure : Scatter Plot showing the relationshi between Value Added Ta and Eenditure. SCATTER PLOT Value Added Ta (VAT) Figure : Scatter Plot showing the relationshi between Statutory Allocation and Eenditure. Figure 4: Normal Quantile-Quantile Plot for the Confirmation of Normality Assumtion. SCATTER PLOT Normal Q-Q Plot Statutory Allocation (SA) Theoretical Quantiles Figure 5: Residual Plot for the confirmation of Homoscedasticity Assumtion 05

7 res IJRRAS 7 () November df RESIDUAL PLOT Inde Table I: Results of Comutation and Significance Test of Individual Regression Parameters Variables Estimates Standard Error T P Intercet Table II: Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) Results Table for Overall Test of Significance Source of Variation Degree of Freedom Sum of Square Mean Square F cal P Regression 0,54.9, Residual 56, Total 59, Table III: Results of Comutation of Simle Correlation Coefficients between eenditure and the three sources of income as well as Coefficient of Determination Variable Y Table IV: Selection of the Best Regression Model Results using All Possible Regression Method ( R -Criterion) Variables SSR SSE R Y * * * 0.8 * * * R

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