Review of Current and Potential Asian Oil Benchmarks. Chen Bo President, UNIPEC March 15, 2016

Transcription

1 Review of Current and Potential Asian Oil Benchmarks Chen Bo President, UNIPEC March 15, 2016

2 Content Dramatic changes on global oil trading World oil industries shifting to east China s oil market and potential crude benchmark

3 Dramatic changes on global oil trade US Shale Revolution Restructure of World Refining Industries Dramatic Changes on Global Oil Trade Trade in the Atlantic Basin declines Global oil trade shifts towards east China is becoming the world largest crude importer

4 Crude trade declines in the Atlantic Basin Crude Oil Imports into the US and Europe % % 52.0% U.S % 48.0% 46.0% Europe* % 42.0% 40.0% Share of US and Europe in World Crude Trade - RHS Source: BP, PIRA, Unipec Research, * Europe excludes FSU

5 US crude imports led down by shale revolution 12.0 US Crude Oil Production and Imports Imports Production 0.0 Source: EIA, Unipec Research

6 WTI is challenged as global oil benchmark $/bbl 20 Spreads of WTI/BRENT and WTI/LLS WTI/Brent Spread WTI/LLS Spread Source: Reuters, Unipec Research

7 Increasing speculations in NYMEX WTI contract WTI Positions by Type of Trader 100.0% 75.0% 50.0% 25.0% 28.4% 21.8% 31.2% 18.6% 16.5% 28.6% 25.7% 29.2% Producer/Merchant/ Processor/User Managed Money Swap Dealers Other Reportables 0.0% Source: CFTC, Unipec Research

8 Crude production declines in the North Sea Crude Production of Major Grades in the North Sea Ekofisk Oseberg Forties 0.2 Brent 0.0 Source: Reuters, Unipec Research

9 Crude runs and imports of OECD Europe slide 14.0 Crude Runs and Imports of OECD Europe Crude Runs Crude Imports Source: BP, PIRA, Unipec Research

10 Indonesia became a net oil importer Crude Oil Production and Net Export of Indonesia Net Exports - Left Production - Right Source: OPEC, Argus

11 Limited liquidity of Dubai benchmarks Production of Dubai Crude Benchmarks Al Shaheen Murban Dubai Oman Upper Zakum Source: FGE, Unipec Research

12 Global crude pricing mechanism needs to be improved Crude production declines in the North Sea Crude runs and imports of OECD Europe slide WTI WTI is challenged as global crude benchmark Increasing speculations in NYMEX WTI contract BRENT Limited liquidity of Dubai benchmarks DUBAI/ OMAN China is becoming the world largest oil importer China is building an market - oriented oil market Shanghai INE MINAS/ TAPIS Indonesia became a net oil importer Source: Unipec Research

13 Content Dramatic changes on global oil trading World oil industries shifting to east China s oil market and potential crude benchmark

14 Asia-Pacific is the world biggest oil consumer Oil Demand and Share of Asia-Pacific % % Oil Demand % % % of Global Oil Demand-RHS % Source: IEA, Unipec Research

15 Asia-Pacific owns the world largest refining capacities World Refining Capacity by Region 100.0% 28% 31% 35% 75.0% 50.0% 4% 8% 29% 3% 9% 26% 3% 9% 24% Asia-Pacific Africa Middle East 25.0% 0.0% 9% 9% 8% 22% 21% 21% Europe Latin America North America Source: PIRA, Unipec Research

16 Crude deficit widens in Asia-Pacific Refining Capacity and Oil Production in Asia-Pacific Refining Capacity Oil Production Source: PIRA, Unipec Research

17 Asia-Pacific became the target market of crude suppliers Crude Trade Volumes and Share of Asia-Pacific % 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Asia-Pacific Rest of World Share of Asia-Pacific -Right Source: BP, PIRA, Unipec Research

18 Middle East crude trades shifting to east 6.0 Middle East Crude Exports by Destination Europe North America Rest of World Asia-Pacific - Right Source: PIRA, Unipec Research

19 African crude trades shifting to east 3.5 Africa Crude Exports by Destination Asia-Pacific Europe North America 0.5 Rest of World 0.0 Source: PIRA, Unipec Research

20 FSU crude trades shifting to east 6.0 FSU Crude Exports by Destination Asia-Pacific 3.0 Europe 2.0 North America 1.0 Rest of World 0.0 Source: PIRA, Unipec Research

21 Latin American crude trades shifting to east Latin America Crude Exports by Destination 3.0 Asia-Pacific Europe North America Rest of World 0.0 Source: PIRA, Unipec Research

22 Content Dramatic changes on global oil trading World oil industries shifting to east China s oil market and potential crude benchmark

23 China s oil demand keeps rising at lower growth rate China s Economic Growth and Oil Demand % % 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% Oil Demand GDP Growth Rate- Right % Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Unipec Research

24 China s crude shortage continues to widen 14.0 Crude Runs and Production of China Crude Runs Crude Production 0.0 Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China. * Unipec Research forecasts

25 China accounts for larger share in global crude trade Crude Oil Imports and its Share in the world % 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Crude Imports Share-Right Source: BP, Unipec Research

26 China is becoming the world largest crude importer by Crude Imports into China and the US The US China 0.0 Source: China Customs, EIA. * forecasts by Unipec Research

27 China s oil market reform speeds up onwards Reform launched: ChemChina obtained 10 million tons/year. crude import quota. Oil products pricing mechanism adjusted. Reform speeds up: Upstream sectors opens to private investment. More independent refineries approved to import crude oil. A few independent refineries obtain oil products export quota. China s refining market sees more competitions. Reform moves on: Further improving oil product pricing mechanism. Launching Shanghai crude futures contract. Preparing oil products futures contracts.

28 The potential INE crude benchmark will play a key role The Potential Crude Benchmarks in Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) Region Country Crude Minimum API Maximum Sulfur Content (%) Premium ($/bbl) Middle East UAE Dubai Oman Oman UAR Upper Zakum Yemen Masila Qatar Qatar Marine Iraq Basrah Light China China Shengli To be determined by INE. Factors to consider: Property differences Demand & supply Alternative crude Loading & Transportation Note: quality baseline is API gravity of 32 and sulfur content of 1.5%. Crude for delivery and premium level shall be decided and adjusted by INE according to market condition.

29 Summaries Driven by the US shale revolution and restructure in world refining industries, global oil trade is shifting towards east. Asia-Pacific has become the world biggest oil consumer and refinery center, and also the largest target market of crude oil. The dramatic changes in global oil trade, together with increasing speculations and limited liquidities of major crude benchmarks, require improvement in global crude pricing mechanism. China is becoming the largest crude importer, and its share in global crude trade is rising. Aiming to build a more efficient and open oil market, China s oil market reform has speeded up. The potential INE crude benchmark will play a key role in global oil trade.

30 End Thank You!