China s energy role in the Middle East and prospect for the future

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1 China s energy role in the Middle East and prospect for the future Philip Andrews-Speed Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy, University of Dundee Structure What is China s energy role in the Middle East? What is driving this engagement? What may determine future developments?

2 China s future oil supply gap ECONOMIC CRISIS million tonnes Consumption 180 mmt mmt Production Key elements of oil strategy Domestic Maximise production Maximise refining Build pipelines Ports/shipping Build storage Coal to liquids, biofuels Fuel consumption standards BUT Encouraging private road transport Fuel pricing/tax Agricultural sector Overseas Diversify imports Maximise crude imports cf product imports Long-term contracts/relationships Overland import (pipe/rail) Overseas investment Exploration & production Refining Oilfield services & construction Inward investment from foreign NOCs Loans for oil

3 Sources of China s crude oil imports 100% 90% Eurasia 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Asia-Pacific Africa 30% 20% Middle East 10% 0% China s oil imports from the Middle East Million tonnes per year Oman Iran Saudi Arabia

4 China s oil imports from the Middle East 100% 90% Kuwait, Yemen, UAE...Iraq, Qatar, Syria 80% 70% Oman 60% 50% Iran 40% 30% 20% Saudi Arabia 10% 0% China s international oil and gas investments FSU MENA SSA E, S & SE Asia/Aust Azerbaijan Kazakhstan* Kyrgyzstan Russia* Turkmenistan* Uzbekistan Algeria* Chad Egypt Iraq* Iran* Kuwait Libya Mali Mauritania Morocco Niger Oman Saudi Arabia Somalia Syria Tunisia UAE Yemen Angola* Congo Cote D Ivoire Equatorial Guinea Ethiopia Gabon Kenya Madagascar Mozambique Nigeria* Sao Tome Sudan* Tanzania Australia* East Timor Indonesia* Mongolia Myanmar Pakistan Papua New Guinea Philippines Taiwan Thailand Vietnam Americas Bolivia Brazil* Canada Colombia Costa Rica Cuba Ecuador Peru USA Venezuela*

5 China-Middle East oil & gas investments CHINA S INVESTMENTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST Large (upstream) projects in countries with large reserves Iran + Iraq, Saudi, Kuwait, UAE Secure: Iran: Yadavaran Iraq: Al-Ahdab Iran: S and N Pars Smaller projects in countries with less reserves Oman, Yemen, Syria MIDDLE EAST INVESTMENTS IN CHINA Mainly Saudi Arabia & Kuwait Refining & petrochemicals Overseas investment: Objectives China s government Energy Policy: security of supply Industrial policy: pillar industries Social policy: employment Financial policy: forex and tax Foreign policy China s NOC Host government Energy policy: investment (?embargoed) Oil exports: market guarantees Economic policy: investment/aid Resource policy: regaining control Industrial policy: diversify investors Foreign policy: anti-west/usa Host NOC Reserves growth Profits Vertical integration Survival International ambitions Avoid price controls Funds: investment, loans Cheap(er) oil field services Access to opportunities in China Vertical integration

6 Constraints: exogenous Global/regional trends and events Political stability in the Middle East Actions of outside parties in the Middle East Changes in relations between China and the West concerning the Middle East Iran and Iraq as test cases Tension between China s desire to balance the USA its desire to maintain effective working relations with the USA Constraints: endogenous Host government Chinese government Deteriorating diplomatic/economic relations Host government - Chinese NOC Change of government Reluctance to be over-dependent on China Poor performance of Chinese NOC Poor/deteriorating investment conditions for China s NOCs Host NOC - Chinese NOC Diverging commercial objectives Chinese government - Chinese NOC Financial losses by Chinese NOCs Damage to China s reputation from NOC activities Changes in China s diplomatic priorities

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