Terrorism Risk. Managing terrorism risk in the U.S. and. internationally has become an essential. part of catastrophe risk strategies.

Transcription

1 Terrorism Risk Managing terrorism risk in the U.S. and internationally has become an essential part of catastrophe risk strategies. RMS pioneered the application of game theory and has incorporated world-renowned expertise to quantify terrorism risk for the insurance industry. The RMS suite of decision-support tools allows companies to manage exposure accumulations, analyze a spectrum of deterministic and probabilistic scenarios, and underwrite TM terrorism risk worldwide. Risk Management Solutions

2 Attack on the Jakarta Marriott Hotel, August 2003 (AP Wide World Photos) High resolution probabilistic analysis provides quantitative risk metrics RMS analyzes recent events to determine the likely effect on the overall terrorist threat Managing Terrorism Risk Understanding Terrorism Risk Damage from the September 11 attack on the World Trade Center was confined to several blocks in New York, but record levels of insured loss were experienced across many lines of business.this event led the insurance industry to re-engineer the ways in which it manages catastrophe risk. Risk managers now use multiple methods of risk quantification to triangulate on the magnitude of risk. RMS provides a suite of tools to assist risk managers in understanding and managing terrorism risk, including the ability to: Identify multi-line exposure accumulations at an individual building level using the patented RMS Spider algorithm, and Sanborn City Center Data Maintain losses under a company-specific threshold using benchmark scenario attacks in the RMS Terrorism Scenario Model Facilitate U.S. risk selection, transfer, and pricing using the RMS U.S. Probabilistic Terrorism Model Underwrite and manage international terrorism risk using the RMS Global Terrorism Risk Model Terrorism risk is unlike natural catastrophe perils as it is the result of intentional actions by human beings with malicious intent. However, by understanding the motivations and modus operandi of terrorists, it is possible to understand patterns of risk and factors affecting it. RMS works with an extensive network of the world s leading authorities on terrorism to monitor terrorist activity and assess the terrorism threat. RMS advisors include Jane s Information Group, St. Andrew s University, and Nanyang Technological University. RMS also has formed a partnership with RAND to inform public and private decision makers on policy issues in the face of the terrorism threat. RMS considers the dynamics of the terrorist threat and counter-terrorism security, using game theory to analyze the probable risk, attack capability, and target prioritization.this framework, combined with regular expert elicitation and review, ensures that RMS models reflect the most recent understanding of risk.

3 Terrorism accumulation zones can be defined by scenario and proximity analyses relative to terrorism targets The RMS Terrorism Scenario Model quantifies losses from a wide range of potential attack modes Accumulation Management Terrorism Scenario Model The geographically-focused nature of terrorism events highlights the need to identify and quantify multi-line exposure accumulations that could lead to extreme losses.the first step in exposure accumulation analysis is to collect detailed portfolio information for all lines of business potentially impacted. Developed in partnership with RMS, Sanborn City Center Data allows users to identify multiple accounts located in the same building, and improve risk management for trophy buildings and very dense urban settings. In addition, the RMS Spider answers key questions for identifying and quantifying exposure concentrations, including: How large a zone should be used for accumulation management? Around what terrorist targets or locations do multi-line exposures greater than management thresholds exist? These metrics allow a company to maintain acceptable levels of exposure by limiting business in over-exposed areas or flagging possible non-renewals. Quantifying losses for potential terrorist attack scenarios requires detailed loss modeling, using high-resolution engineering analytics provided by the RMS Terrorism Scenario Model. The scenario model allows users to overlay an attack footprint on any geographic location to quantify losses to a portfolio. A range of 32 attack modes are available including conventional attacks and chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) weapons. Damage footprints in the scenario model were developed using sources such as computational fluid dynamics models, historical data, military studies, and defense industry experts. The model can assess losses to property and business interruption as well as quantify expected injuries and fatalities, allowing for analysis of workers comp and life & health lines of business. Companies frequently select a benchmark event, such as a 2-ton bomb attack, and set a threshold loss level to which modeled losses are managed.

4 3.0% 2.0% All Attack Modes Without CBRN 1.0% Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 0.0% $400 m Evaluation of options for TRIA retention buy-downs and the impact of coverage exclusions on risk Terrorism risk is quantified for asset classes, ownership types, and locations across 227 territories worldwide Probabilistic Terrorism Model Global Terrorism Risk Model The RMS U.S. Probabilistic Terrorism Model provides a comprehensive analysis of terrorism risk in the U.S., quantifying risk from foreign and domestic terrorist organizations. It supports multiline risk analysis for both TRIA-certified and noncertified events causing property loss, business interruption, and human injuries and fatalities. The model quantifies the impact of all terrorist attack permutations on 3,400 high-risk potential target locations.targeting patterns and prioritization emulates terrorist objectives and uses game theory to incorporate the effects of security and counter-terrorism measures. Appropriate attack modes can be selected to model the coverages and exclusions in place. The probabilistic model supports decisions such as risk selection, account pricing, and reinsurance needs and pricing.the model can also analyze recoveries under TRIA and possible loss scenarios with and without TRIA recoverables. The RMS Global Terrorism Risk Model provides metrics for the frequency and severity of terrorism losses in 227 territories worldwide.the model was developed through the compilation and analysis of an extensive catalog of recent and historical terrorism events around the world. The Global Terrorism Risk Model includes exceedance probability curves for each territory, which provide total property loss, business interruption, human fatalities, and human injury losses. In each territory, the loss rate and casualty rate are also provided.the targeting preferences and risk patterns of terrorism in each country are reflected in a segmentation of the risk by asset class, location, ownership, and relative attractiveness of each target. In addition, average annual loss rates and casualty rates are provided for each segment of asset class in every territory. For alternative views of risk, companies may also use the model to parameterize their own view of risk in each territory.

5 Modeling a terrorist attack from a truck bomb blast simulates the pressure wave and debris field from the detonation point through an urban landscape such as the financial district of Manhattan Detailed modeling of the effects of a terrorist attack on a city includes the spread of a biological agent, such as anthrax spores, and the dosage experienced by the occupants of buildings downwind

6 RMS Terrorism Risk Management Tools Accumulation Management Terrorism Scenario Model Probabilistic Terrorism Model Global Terrorism Risk Model Model Scope All RiskLink Supported Countries Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, The Netherlands, Portugal, United Kingdom, United States United States 227 Territories Exposure Data Resolution Latitude/Longitude, Street, Postal Code Latitude/Longitude, Street, Postal Code Latitude/Longitude, Street, Postal Code Any Lines of Business Sanborn City Center Data About RMS Developed in partnership with RMS Provides geocoding positional accuracy at building level Identifies multiple addresses at a single building Recognizes place names for improved buildinglevel hit rate Includes construction, occupancy, year built, height, number of stories, and square footage Coverage for 27 U.S. cities:arlington,atlanta, Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Jersey City, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami/Ft. Lauderdale, Minneapolis/St. Paul, New York, Newark, Philadelphia, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, St. Louis, Tampa/St. Petersburg, and Washington D.C. Risk Management Solutions is the world s leading provider of products and services for catastrophe risk management. More than 400 leading insurers, reinsurers, trading companies, and other financial institutions rely on RMS products to quantify, manage, and transfer risk. Founded at Stanford in 1988, RMS serves clients today from offices in the U.S., Europe, and Japan. Risk Management Solutions, Inc Gateway Blvd. Newark, CA USA W o r l d w i d e W e b E - m a i l info@rms.com Tel Fax Tel (Europe) 2004 Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. RiskLink and RMS are registered trademarks, and the RMS logo is a trademark of Risk Management Solutions, Inc. All other trademarks are property of their respective owners.