EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Fuel Cell Vehicles Light Vehicles, Medium/Heavy-Duty Trucks, Transit Buses, and Hydrogen Refueling Infrastructure

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1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Fuel Cell Vehicles Light Vehicles, Medium/Heavy-Duty Trucks, Transit Buses, and Hydrogen Refueling Infrastructure Published 1Q 2010 NOTE: This document is a free excerpt of a larger research report. If you are interested in purchasing the full report, please contact Pike Research at Dave Hurst Industry Analyst Clint Wheelock Managing Director

2 Section 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) have a number of attractive features, not the least of which is their lack of emissions, other than water and heat. However, FCVs remain a technology under development and the vehicles are currently only available in selected markets. Fuel cells (FCs) were originally developed for space programs to provide power and water for space flights, but are now used for a variety of different applications including stationary power sources, materials handling vehicles (forklifts), and recharging small portable electronics. FCs work on a principle discovered in When hydrogen (H 2 ) comes into contact with platinum electrodes on one end and then interacts with air molecules, FCs will produce an electrical current and water. Most automotive FCs are polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) cells. H 2 is passed through the anode (negative) side of the FC and, as it contacts the catalyst on the outside of the PEM, it releases the electrons to travel across the membrane to the cathode (positive) side. This provides the current used to power a vehicle s electric motor, which in most light vehicle applications is supplemented by battery power during peak power needs (such as acceleration or hill climbing). In hybrid FCVs, the FC recharges the vehicle s battery, while in others the battery only stores energy captured from regenerative braking. In addition to the FC itself, FCVs also require H 2 storage tanks. These are high-pressure (10,000 psi or 700 bar) tanks that currently do not have safety standards developed. The low number of vehicles has not yet prompted regulators to set safety standards specific to transportation H 2 tanks. Prior to launching the vehicles in the market, safety standards will likely be established, and more research is needed regarding the design of H 2 storage on vehicles. Currently, FCVs are, for the most part, just demonstration vehicles. Honda is the only automaker to make a FCV available to the public, but these are restricted to only southern California and each vehicle is hand-built. Many automakers have small fleets (typically less than one hundred vehicles) available for the press and public to test. In 2009, eight automakers (Ford Daimler AG, Ford Motor Company, General Motors, Honda, Hyundai Motor Company, Kia Motors Corporation, Renault/Nissan, and Toyota) signed a Letter of Understanding (LOU) that stated their agreement to bring FCVs to the market by This was done because, while FCs have shown promise, many believe they are still not viable for cars and trucks, and because the automakers wanted to put on political pressure on for the growth of H 2 refueling stations. Among automakers, five are leaders in FCVs: Daimler AG, Honda, General Motors, Hyundai, and Toyota. These manufacturers are currently operating the largest fleets of FCVs and have done so the longest. Other manufacturers may soon catch up, however, as Ford has operated a (now aging) fleet of FC Focuses, but it partners with Daimler in the Automotive Fuel Cell Cooperation (AFCC) joint venture and likely has access to more advanced FC technology. Volkswagen is preparing to bring its Passat Lingyu FCV into limited production within the next few years. Another market factor is the growth of FC transit buses. Buses are used because their high cost can be subsidized (or outright paid for) by governments, rather than individuals or 1

3 businesses. Additionally, buses are easy to manage due to their set routes and maintenance facilities, and they often need only one refueling station for the vehicles. Pike Research expects that, overall, FCV research will reach $4 billion in 2010, and is expected to climb to $5.13 billion globally in 2016, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.3%. This research spending is expected to grow in 2015 and 2016 as automakers meet their commitments to introduce vehicles to the marketplace. Once introduced, we expect light vehicle FC sales to reach 669,597 vehicles by The United States will be the largest market for FCVs in 2020 (134,049 FCVs), followed by China (129,241 FCVs) and Germany (126,783 FCVs). The entire growth of the FCV market is balancing on two key items: the growth of H 2 refueling stations and improved durability and efficiency of the FCs. Pike Research anticipates that automakers will meet their commitments, but it will be a much harder political sale to convince governments to subsidize the refueling infrastructure and gas companies to make the substantial financial commitments to build the stations. Therefore, Pike Research expects that FCVs will remain a small niche within the overall vehicle market for the first five or six years after they are introduced. Chart 1.1 FC Light Vehicle Sales, World Markets: , ,000 Sales (Light Vehicles) 500, , ,000 Asia-Pacific Western Europe North America 200, , E (Source: Pike Research) 2

4 Section 8 TABLE OF CONTENTS Section Executive Summary... 1 Section Market Issues History Vehicle Development Demonstration Light Vehicle Programs Bus and Medium/Heavy-Duty Truck Programs Current Market Opportunities Commercializing Fuel Cells The Automakers Letter of Understanding Environmental Benefits Hydrogen Production Greening of Fleets Fuel Cell Longevity Fuel Cell Costs and Profitability Infrastructure Issues Competing Technologies Alternate Fuel Sources Plug-in Hybrids and Battery Electric Vehicles Government Impact on Fuel Cell Development Infrastructure Incentives Section Technology Issues Hydrogen Fuel Cells Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Hydrogen Storage Emerging Storage Technologies Drivetrain Designs Section Key Industry Players OEMs Daimler AG Fiat/Chrysler Corp Ford Motor Company General Motors Hyundai Motor Company Honda ISE Corporation Nissan PSA Peugeot Citroen Proterra, LLC Toyota Motor Corporation Volkswagen Suppliers Air Products Automotive Fuel Cell Cooperation Ballard Power Systems

5 4.2.4 H2 Logic Hydrogenics Corporation Intelligent Energy Linde Nuvera Fuel Cells Praxair Technology Inc UTC Power Section Market Forecasts Fuel Cell Vehicle Research and Development Spending Forecast: Fuel Cell Transit Bus Sales Asia-Pacific Fuel Cell Bus Sales Fuel Cell Vehicle Production Annual Fuel Cell Light Vehicle Sales Fuel Cell Vehicle Revenue Forecast Summary and Conclusions Section Company Directory Section Acronym and Abbreviation List Section Table of Contents Section Table of Figures Section Scope of Study Sources and Methodology Notes

6 Section 9 TABLE OF FIGURES Chart 1.1 FC Light Vehicle Sales, World Markets: Chart 2.1 FC Transit Buses, World Markets: Chart 5.1 FCV Research and Development Spending, World Markets: Chart 5.2 FC Transit Bus Sales, North America, Western Europe, Asia Pacific: Chart 5.3 FC Transit Bus Sales, Asia-Pacific: Chart 5.4 FC Light Vehicle Production, World Markets: Chart 5.5 FC Light Vehicle Sales, World Markets: Chart 5.6 FC Light Vehicle Revenue, World Markets: Figure 2.1 Total CO 2 Emissions per 1 km of Driving, Figure 2.2 Total CO 2 Emissions per 1 km of Driving, Figure 2.3 Incremental OEM Cost for Vehicle Technologies Figure 3.1 Polymer Electrolyte Membrane (PEM) Fuel Cell Diagram Figure 3.2 Types of FCs Figure 4.1 General Motors GEN2 FCS Fuel Cell Comparison

7 Section 10 SCOPE OF STUDY Pike Research has prepared this report to provide participants at all levels of the FCV market, including vehicle OEMs, suppliers, trade associations, and infrastructure providers, with a study of the market for FCVs. The major objective is to determine the state of the industry and likely future growth of FCV demand in the overall automobile market. In addition, the report provides a review of major demand drivers, as well as key industry players within the competitive landscape. The report s purpose is not to present an exhaustive technical assessment of the vehicles and technologies covered. Rather, it aims to provide a strategic examination from an overall tactical business perspective. Pike Research strives to identify and examine new market segments to aid readers in the development of their business models. All major global regions are included and the forecast period extends through SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY Pike Research s industry analysts utilize a variety of research sources in preparing Research Reports. The key component of Pike Research s analysis is primary research gained from phone and in-person interviews with industry leaders including executives, engineers, and marketing professionals. Analysts are diligent in ensuring that they speak with representatives from every part of the value chain, including but not limited to technology companies, utilities and other service providers, industry associations, government agencies, and the investment community. Additional analysis includes secondary research conducted by Pike Research s analysts and the firm s staff of research assistants. Where applicable, all secondary research sources are appropriately cited within this report. These primary and secondary research sources, combined with the analyst s industry expertise, are synthesized into the qualitative and quantitative analysis presented in Pike Research s reports. Great care is taken in making sure that all analysis is well-supported by facts, but where the facts are unknown and assumptions must be made, analysts document their assumptions and are prepared to explain their methodology, both within the body of a report and in direct conversations with clients. Pike Research is an independent market research firm whose goal is to present an objective, unbiased view of market opportunities within its coverage areas. The firm is not beholden to any special interests and is thus able to offer clear, actionable advice to help clients succeed in the industry, unfettered by technology hype, political agendas, or emotional factors that are inherent in cleantech markets. NOTES CAGR refers to compound average annual growth rate, using the formula: CAGR = (End Year Value Start Year Value) (1/steps) 1. CAGRs presented in the tables are for the entire timeframe in the title. Where data for fewer years are given, the CAGR is for the range presented. Where relevant, CAGRs for shorter timeframes may be given as well. Figures are based on the best estimates available at the time of calculation. Annual revenues, shipments, and sales are based on end-of-year figures unless otherwise noted. All values are expressed in year 2009 US dollars unless otherwise noted. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. 36

8 Published 1Q Pike Research LLC 1320 Pearl Street, Suite 300 Boulder, CO USA Tel: This publication is provided by Pike Research LLC ( Pike ). This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike and may not otherwise be reproduced, recorded, photocopied, distributed, displayed, modified, extracted, accessed or used without the express written permission of Pike. Notwithstanding the foregoing, Pike makes no claim to any Government data and other data obtained from public sources found in this publication (whether or not the owners of such data are noted in this publication). If you do not have a license from Pike covering this publication, please refrain from accessing or using this publication. Please contact Pike to obtain a license to this publication. 37

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