Arizona Reaching International Competitiveness by National Center for Higher Education Management Systems
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1 Arizona Reaching International Competitiveness by 2025 National Center for Higher Education Management Systems
2 Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Young and Older Adults U.S. and OECD Countries, to to Turkey Czech Republic Slovak Republic Italy Portugal Hungary Mexico Austria Germany Poland Greece New Zealand Switzerland Luxembourg Iceland Netherlands United Kingdom Denmark Australia Finland France Spain United States Norway Ireland Belgium Sweden Korea Japan Canada Source: Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Education at a Glance 2006
3 Percent of Adults with an Associates Degree or Higher by Age-Group The U.S., Arizona, and Leading OECD Countries (2004) Canada Japan Korea Sweden Belgium Ireland Norway United States Source: Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development, Education at a Glance 2006 Arizona
4 Percent of Adults with Bachelor s Degree or Higher by Age-Group The U.S., Arizona and Leading OECD Countries (2004) Norway Netherlands Korea United States Iceland Canada Arizona Source: Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development, Education at a Glance 2006
5 Percentage Differences Between the Young (25 to 34) and Older (45 to 54) Populations with College Degrees, Associate and Higher Source: US Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey
6 Educational Attainment and Income Arizona s Competitive Position $50, $43,000 $36,000 Personal Income Per Capita AK $29,000 $22,000 WV KY AR NV OH PA FL WI MI IA IN MO OK LA ME GA ID TN NC SD ND AL SC MS WY NJ CA HI MD IL NY DE WA MA MN KS OR VA NH RI TX AZ NE MT VT UT NM US CT CO Correlation = 0.64 $15, Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and American Community Survey Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with Bachelors Degrees
7 Educational Attainment and Income Arizona s Competitive Position $50, $43,000 CT $36,000 Personal Income Per Capita $29,000 $22,000 WV KY AR NV NY AK HI DE CA IL VA NH MN RI PA WA FL US OH MI WI WY NE OR KS IN IA MO ME GA VT NC AZ TX TN OK SD SC ND AL ID MT LA NM UT NJ MD CO MA MS Correlation = 0.76 $15, Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and American Community Survey Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with Bachelors Degrees
8 Educational Attainment and Income Arizona s Competitive Position $50, CT $43,000 NJ MA $36,000 Personal Income Per Capita $29,000 WV NV KY AR MS NY NH CA IL MN WA DE VA AK PA US MI RI OH WY FL WI HI TX GA OR NE KS VT IN MO NC IA TN SD ME AZ ND SC OK AL ID UT LA MT NM MD CO $22,000 Correlation = 0.80 $15, Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and American Community Survey Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with Bachelors Degrees
9 Educational Attainment and Income Arizona s Competitive Position $50, CT $43,000 MD NJ MA NY $36,000 Personal Income Per Capita $29,000 WV NV KY AR MN NH WY DE VA CA IL AK WA PA RI HI FL US WI SD KS NE VT OR OH IA TX MI IN MO NC ND TN ME GA OK AL AZ MT SC ID NM UT CO MS LA $22,000 Correlation = 0.83 $15, Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and American Community Survey Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with Bachelors Degrees
10 80% Current Educational Attainment, Educational Attainment in 2025 with Current Degree Production, and the Best Performing Countries in 2025 (United States) 60% 55.0% 45.9% 40% 37.4% 41.9% 20% 0% Current Percentage of Adults 25 to 64 with College Degrees (2005) Projected Percentage in 2025 with Current Annual Degree Production Projected Percentage in 2025 with Current Annual Degree Production and Net Migration Percentage Needed to Reach Best-Performing Countries by 2025
11 Current Educational Attainment, Educational Attainment in 2025 with Current Degree Production, and the Best Performing Countries in % (Arizona) 60% 55.0% 41.6% 40% 35.3% 32.7% 20% 0% Current Percentage of Adults 25 to 64 with College Degrees (2005) Projected Percentage in 2025 with Current Annual Degree Production Projected Percentage in 2025 with Current Annual Degree Production and Net Migration Percentage Needed to Reach Best-Performing Countries by 2025
12 Arizona Reaching Top Performance by 2025 (55%) 2,403,606 Number of Individuals to Match Best-Performing Countries (55%) 552,805 Number of Individuals (Age 25-44) Who Already Have Degrees 1,850,801 Additional Degree Production Needed (2005 to 2025) 877,917 Degrees Produced at Current Annual Rate of Production 389,080 Additional Residents with College Degrees from Net Migration 583,803 Additional Degrees Needed 29,190 Additional Degrees Needed per Year (currently produce 45,051 in all Sectors) 101.4% Increase in Annual Associate and Bachelor s Degree Production Needed (in Public Sector Only) Collective Cost to the State $ 1.34 Billion = Annual Costs of Additional Students at Current $ per Student $ 1.56 Billion = Current State Contribution 86.2% = Percent Increase in Annual State Support Needed (keeping Tuition the same) Average Cost to Students $ 4,520 = Additional Annual Costs to Students at Public Four-Year Institutions (with no additional state Investment) A 78% Increase in Tuition and Fees (currently $5,802) $ 2,685 = Additional Annual Costs to Students at Public Two-Year Institutions (with no additional state Investment) A 187% Increase in Tuition and Fees (currently $1,439)
13 The Gap Difference in Annual Degrees Produced and Annual Degrees Needed to Meet Benchmark 100,000 94, , ,749 Accounting for Migration 75,000 U.S. = 781,304 (a 52.8 Percent Increase in the Public Sector) 50,000 25, ,000 29,190 15,343 16,214 21,467 23,424 23,777 24,374 24,872 25,227 28,582 28,846 14,477 11,943 12,073 12,826 13,675 14,090 14,144 14,434 14,455 10,410 10,788 6,941 6,948 7,698 8,811 9,465 6,054 4,132 4,262 3,726 3,639 2,392 1,944 1, Vermont South Dakota Minnesota New Hampshire Delaware Kansas Wyoming Montana Hawaii Maine Connecticut Alaska Idaho West Virginia New Mexico Missouri Oklahoma Mississippi Illinois Maryland Wisconsin Oregon Pennsylvania Virginia Washington Indiana Alabama South Carolina Arkansas Kentucky Michigan New Jersey Louisiana Nevada Ohio Tennessee North Carolina Georgia Arizona Florida California Texas ,122-3,195-3,372-4,028-7,981-8,768-11,369-18,389 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS and Population Projections, IPEDS Completions Survey
14 How Can the Arizona Reach International Competitiveness? Current Degree Production Combined with Population Growth and Migration, and Improved Performance on the Student Pipeline Measures Degrees Produced from 2005 to 2025 with Current Rate of Production 877,917 Additional Degrees from Population Growth 149,246 Additional Degrees from Net Migration of College- Educated Residents 389,080 Reaching Best Performance In High School Graduation Rates by 2025 Reaching Best Performance In College-Going Rates by , ,435 Pipeline Performance is Cumulative Reaching Best Performance In Rates of Degree Production Per FTE Student 174,297 Total Degrees Produced from 2005 to 2025 If All of the Above 1,728,739 Degrees Needed to Meet Best Performance (55%) 1,850, , , ,000 1,500,000 1,900,000
15 Even Best Performance with Traditional College-Aged Students at Each Stage of the Educational Pipeline Will Leave Gaps in More than 30 States Texas Florida California New Jersey Tennessee Nevada Louisiana Arkansas Kentucky North Carolina Arizona Mississippi Ohio South Carolina Alabama West Virginia Alaska Oklahoma Oregon Michigan New Mexico Wisconsin Maine Idaho Montana Hawaii Georgia Wyoming Maryland Connecticut Missouri Indiana 320, , , , , , , , , , , ,495 74,752 65,853 62,332 53,995 53,574 47,420 44,757 39,436 37,706 34,547 28,659 25,326 24,741 23,542 10,875 8,898 2, , ,504 In order to reach international competitiveness by 2025, the U.S. and 32 states can t close the gap with even best performance with traditional college students. They must rely on the re-entry pipeline getting older adults back into the education system and on track to attaining college degrees. 1,333, , , ,000 1,200,000 1,500,000
16 Projected Population Growth by Age and Race/Ethnicity from 2005 to 2025 Arizona must dramatically increase degree production while serving more minority populations that historically have not succeeded at nearly the rates of Whites. 200, ,000 White African-American Hispanic/Latino Other 170, ,000 75,208 50, ,277 6,376 3,238 21, to to 44 (50,000) (41,9047) (71,850) (100,000) Source: US Census Bureau, Population Projections
17 Savings If Arizona Reaches Top Performance In Degree Production Performance: Undergraduate Degrees Awarded Per 100 Full-Time Equivalent Students 30 Arizona 22.4 Top States $3,500 $2,800 The reduced costs to Arizona would be $885 Million by improving the efficiency of degree production to the level of the top states. 2,895 (In $ Millions) Additional Costs Needed to Meet Benchmark Current Budget Costs and Degree Production 20 $2,100 1,340 2,010 $1, $700 1,555 1,080 0 $0 Public Two Year Public Four-Year Cost To State Status Quo Cost to State Best Performance
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