NWS Sandy Supplement Projects

Transcription

1 NWS Sandy Supplement Projects Program Manager: John D. Murphy Sr Projects Scientist: Stephen Lord Projects Coordinator: Allan Darling Funds Execution: Robert DuFrane 1

2 Executive Summary $326M to NOAA to Address Sandy Mitigation Efforts ($83.5M to NWS after sequestration) NWS: 32 (2-3 year) projects with multiple collaborators Key NWS Focus Areas: Observations Computing Capacity Model System Upgrades Dissemination: Ground Readiness Storm Surge Enhancements Training; Including Social Science JPSS Gap Mitigation Facilities Repairs A Game Changer for Enhancing the Entire Forecast Process Offers Opportunity to Accelerate Major Advancements to the Operational Computer and Model Infrastructure Monthly Tracking and Reporting Required 2

3 NWS Sandy Supplement Projects 11) Social Science and Science Infusion Training 12) Tropical Cyclone Decision Support Training 13) NWS data availability 14) WRIP and NOAA Weather Wire Service 15) Nearshore Wave Prediction System 16) SLOSH from grids 17) Next generation storm surge 18) NWS raob network 19) MADIS/MRMS 20) NDBC buoy upgrades 21) Facilities hurricane proofing 22) Facilities - Bohemia 23) Facilities Wx radio 24) Facilities - ASOS 3

4 Distribution by Organization EMC JCSDA EMC Visting Scientist OST Aircraft ESRL/ GSD ESRL/ PSD OAR/ NSSL NCAR U. Wisconsin (CIMSS) NESDIS NCO OST/ MDL OST NCEP/ NHC OCWWS OHD NDBC OOS CFO 4

5 Improved Hurricane Forecasts Global ensemble initialization, resolution and physics upgrades Improved ensemble initialization Stochastic surface physics Model error estimation (scaling for ensemble perturbations) Increase model computational efficiency Upgrade cloud and precipitation physics Resolution increases 64 ~128 levels km horizontal (deterministic) 55 km TBD (ensemble) NAM tropical cyclone relocation Improves storm initial condition and predicted motion Extend to RAP (ARW dynamic core) and SREF Develop infrastructure needed to assimilate Caribbean and Central American radar data with NCEP data assimilation systems Acquire data Develop quality control procedures Extend current radar mosaic to cover new data 5

6 Marine (Hurricane) Applications Nearshore Wave Prediction System Wave field and surge/inundation guidance Probabilistic guidance from P-Surge from MDL Available on AWIPS Testing at multiple coastal WFOs and NCEP OPC with funded hardware Unstructured grid development Coupled wave-surge guidance using SWAN/WAVEWATCH III and ADCIRC Consistent guidance with NHC TCMs Storm Surge P-Surge (probabilistic product) development and storm surge warnings NWS forecaster, external partner, and user training Expansion from tropical to extra-tropical over time Use of gridded winds in SLOSH, P-Surge and Extra-Tropical Storm Surge (ETSS)

7 Gap Mitigation Projects OSE - documentation of gap impact Science-based development sub-projects 4-D Hybrid Cloud-impacted radiances Enhanced AMV use Enhanced Geostationary (GOES-R) data use Enhanced use of European products Enhanced use of aircraft observations (global and domestic) Supporting infrastructure Accelerate implementations through NCO High performance computing upgrade 7

8 Conclusion Sandy mitigation efforts provide game changing opportunity for the entire forecast process 32 (2-3 year) projects with multiple collaborators Accelerates major advancements to operational computer and model infrastructure Strong collaborations Leveraging existing projects/contracts/efforts Close scrutiny and oversight of projects Weekly projects meeting Monthly AA briefs Quarterly reporting to NOAA and OMB FY14/15 Budget Submissions build on Sandy Supplement efforts 8

9 Contact Information John D. Murphy Director, Office of Science & Technology National Weather Service U.S. Department of Commerce 1325 East-West Highway, SSMC2, Room Silver Spring, Maryland Office: (301) x126 Cell: (202)