White Corn Production and Markets. for North Dakota Growers

Transcription

1 Agribusiness and Applied Economics Report No. 489 July 22 White Corn Production and Markets for North Dakota Growers Bruce L. Dahl William W. Wilson Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics Agricultural Experiment Station North Dakota State University Fargo, ND

2 Acknowledgments Comments on earlier versions of this paper were obtained from George Flaskerud and Marcelo Carena though errors and omissions are the responsibility of the authors. We would like to thank Marcelo Carena, Assistant Professor, Department of Plant Sciences at NDSU who provided data and insight for this project. This research was conducted with support from SBARE and the North Dakota Corn Growers Association. We would be happy to provide a single copy of this publication free of charge. You can address your inquiry to Carol Jensen, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics, North Dakota State University, PO Box 5636, Fargo, ND , (Ph , Fax ), ( cjensen@ndsuext.nodak.edu) or obtain a copy electronically from our web site: NOTICE: The analyses and views reported in this paper are those of the author(s). They are not necessarily endorsed by the Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics or by North Dakota State University. North Dakota State University is committed to the policy that all persons shall have equal access to its programs, and employment without regard to race, color, creed, religion, national origin, sex, age, marital status, disability, public assistance status, veteran status, or sexual orientation. Information on other titles in this series may be obtained from: Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics, North Dakota State University, P.O. Box 5636, Fargo, ND Telephone: , Fax: , or cjensen@ndsuext.nodak.edu. Copyright 22 by Bruce L. Dahl and William W. Wilson. All rights reserved. Readers may make verbatim copies of this document for non-commercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice appears on all such copies.

3 Table of Contents Page List of Tables... ii List of Figures... iii Abstract... iv Introduction and Scope...1 Supply and Demand...1 Domestic Markets...5 Agronomic Competitiveness...6 Yields...6 Budget Analysis...7 Geographic Competition...12 Conclusions...14 References...16

4 List of Tables Table No. Page 1 Major Domestic Processors of White Corn Estimated Shipping Costs of White Corn from Selected North Dakota and Nebraska Origins to Export and Domestic Locations Estimated Net Local Price of White Corn for Specific Origins (Destination Price Less Transportation...14 ii

5 List of Figures Figure No. Page 1 Harvested Acres for U.S. White Corn, 198/81 to 22/ U.S. White Corn Production, 198/81 to 22/ U.S. White Corn Planted Acres, by State, 1992/93 to 22/ U.S. White Corn Production, by State, 1992/93 to 21/ Supply and Demand for U.S. White Corn, 198/81 to 21/ Exports of U.S. White Corn, by Country, 2/1 and Partial 21/ Comparison of U.S. Corn and White Corn Yields, North Dakota Corn Production Costs, Nebraska Corn Production Costs for Selected Areas and Crop Practices, Comparison of Net Returns for Yellow and White Corn and Difference, North Dakota, Comparison of Net Returns for Yellow and White Corn and Difference, Nebraska, Effect of Yields on Difference in Net Returns Relative to Yellow Corn, North Dakota, Effect of Yields on Difference in Net Returns Relative to Yellow Corn, Nebraska, Effect of White Corn Premiums on Difference in Net Returns Relative to Yellow Corn, North Dakota, Effect of White Corn Premiums on Difference in Net Returns Relative to Yellow Corn, Nebraska, iii

6 Abstract U.S. white corn production, consumption, and exports increased from 198 to 1999/ and production and area have since declined. White corn is produced largely in Nebraska, Kentucky, and Texas, although production in Texas has declined and has increased in other states (Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa). Major domestic processors of white corn are located in the southern United States, with the closest large domestic processor located in St. Joseph, MO. Comparisons of white and yellow corn varieties suggest yields are similar, but have a wide range of variability. Net returns for white corn are most affected by white corn premiums and yield differences relative to yellow corn in southeastern and south central North Dakota. A 1 percent yield advantage for white corn over yellow corn or increases in the white corn premium from 1 cents/bu to 3 cents/bu would increase net returns to labor by $1/a in southeastern North Dakota. Effects of increases in yield advantages or white corn premiums have larger impacts in Nebraska than in North Dakota. Estimated net local prices for North Dakota were cents/bu higher for shipment to the Pacific Northwest (PNW) export market than for shipment to domestic markets. This dominance of the PNW market for exports of either white or yellow corn from North Dakota and cost disadvantages relative to production from Nebraska makes serving the domestic processing market not so attractive. Results would change if: 1) a local processor or domestic market were to arise which was not at a disadvantage to being supplied from other areas; 2) premiums for white corn over yellow corn were to increase for a sustained period of time; 3) yield advantages of white corn varieties relative to yellow corn varieties increase; or 4) an export market which was not disadvantaged relative to being supplied from other regions were to emerge. Key Words: white corn, supply/demand, North Dakota, competitiveness, markets, geographic competition iv

7 White Corn Production and Markets for North Dakota Growers Bruce L. Dahl and William W. Wilson * Introduction and Scope In recent years, farmers growing corn have experienced lower profitability of traditional yellow corn due to lower prices. Some producers searching for alternatives to gain profitability have chosen production of white corn as an alternative to yellow corn. White corn production in the United States has increased dramatically in recent years. These factors have fostered questions about the potential of white corn production being introduced into northern production regions. The purpose of this report is to describe the white corn market and assess the prospective agronomic competitiveness of white corn grown in the northern regions. The following sections provide a description of supply and demand and trends in U.S. white corn production. Later sections describe domestic markets, agronomic competitiveness due to differences in prices/yields of white and yellow corn. Finally, geographic competition from markets are examined to identify relative attractiveness or cost disadvantages of supplying markets from North Dakota. Supply and Demand U.S. area of white corn increased substantially from 198 to 2 (Figure 1). Harvested acres in the late 199s and early 2s are two to four times that harvested during the early 198s. In 198/1, white corn was harvested on 443, acres, while in 21/2, white corn was harvested on 893, acres. U.S. production of white corn has over the same period more than quadrupled (Figure 2). Production of white corn in 198/81 was 29 million bushels. By 21/2 production of white corn had increased to 135 million bushels. However, area and production spiked in 1999/ and have declined since then with projections for 22/3 harvested acres at just over 8, and production down from 155 million bushels for 199/ to a projected production of 117 million bushels for 22/3. White corn is planted in several states in the United States, but planted area has been concentrated in Nebraska, Kentucky, Texas, and Illinois and has increased in the late 199s and early 2s in Indiana and Iowa (Figure 3). Production is concentrated in the same states, although, changes in production in the 199s and 2s also reflect yield variability across states and years. In most years in this period, over 5 percent of production is from Nebraska, Kentucky, and Texas (Figure 4). Since 1999/, production in the states of Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa have increased in importance and Texas has declined. Production increases for white corn have come from increases in production in states where large areas of white corn have been grown (Nebraska and Kentucky), from increases in production in states where white corn had previously not been important (Indiana, Iowa, and others), and from introduction of white corn production into states where white corn had not been grown such as the upper Midwest which includes Minnesota and Wisconsin. * Research Scientist and Professor, respectively, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics, North Dakota State University, Fargo.

8 14 12 Harvested Acres () Figure 1. Harvested Acres for U.S. White Corn, 198/81 to 22/3. 2 Production (Mil. bu.) Figure 2. U.S. White Corn Production, 198/81 to 22/3. 2

9 14 12 Planted Acres () California Upper Midwest Kansas Ohio Southeastern States Iowa Missouri Indiana Illinois Texas Kentucky Nebraska Figure 3. U.S. White Corn Planted Acres, by State, 1992/93 to 22/3. 15 Production (Mil. bu.) 1 5 Mississippi California Upper Midwest Kansas Ohio Southeastern States Iowa Missouri Indiana Illinois Texas Kentucky Nebraska Figure 4. U.S. White Corn Production, by State, 1992/93 to 21/2. 3

10 As production of white corn in the United States has grown, both domestic consumption and exports of U.S. white corn have increased (Figure 5). Domestic consumption of U.S. white corn has more than doubled from 26 million bushels in 198/81 to 6 million bushels in 21/2. Growth in exports of U.S. white corn have increased even more dramatically, increasing from 7 million bushels in 198/81 to 62 million bushels in 21/2. Mexico was the largest importer of U.S. white corn in 2/1 importing 75 percent of U.S. white corn exports in that marketing year (Figure 6). Other major importers of U.S. white corn in that year were Central/South American countries (Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama) along with Japan and the Philippines. Exports for 21/2, although only representing a portion of the crop year, show similar trends and include shipments to Mozambique, South Africa, and Zimbabwe Million Bushels 1 5 Production Domestic Use Supplies Exports Excess Supplies (5) crop year Figure 5. Supply and Demand for U.S. White Corn, 198/81 to 21/2. 4

11 5 Exports (Mil. bu.) /1 21/2* Mexico Japan Philippines Columbia Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Panama Cape Verde Mozambique South Africa Zimbabwe Others * Sep - May Figure 6. Exports of U.S. White Corn, by Country, 2/1 and Partial for 21/2. Domestic Markets There are several domestic processors of white corn (Table 1). The largest of these are Asteca (Gruma Corp.), Frito-Lay, Quaker Oats (recently sold to Agramarke), and Marta White (White Lily). Many of the plants processing white corn are located in or near states where white corn is produced (NE, KY, and TX). Many of the processors have expanded annual capacity. For example, Asteca increased annual capacity from 11.5 million bushels in 1995 to 14.5 million bushels by 1998, and Frito-Lay has increased from 7 to 9.5 million bushels over the same period. These domestic plants are generally located away from the northern region and concentrated in the south. The nearest large processor is in St. Joseph, MO, which had been owned by Quaker Oats, but was sold in 21 to Agramarke Inc., a farmer-owned cooperative. 5

12 Table 1. Major Domestic Processors of White Corn Firm - Locations million bushels --- Asteca (Gruma Corp.) - CA, IN, KY, TX Frito-Lay Quaker Oats - IO, MO Marta White (White Lily) - TN ADM- TX, CA, KY, NE 2.5 Minsa - TX, IO 1.5 Others Total Agronomic Competitiveness Yields Average yields of corn and white corn were compared to evaluate their competitiveness. U.S. corn (predominately yellow) and white corn yields have increased from (Figure 7). Yields of U.S. all corn and white corn follow the same general pattern. However, yields for white corn were generally lower than those of all U.S. corn through most of the 198s and have recently increased above those for all corn in the last few years. This suggests growth in yields for white corn has been at a faster rate than those for yellow corn. Yields for white and yellow corn varieties adapted to North Dakota have been examined in several variety trials. Results from trials suggest yields from white and yellow corn varieties are comparable, with a high degree of variability. For example, results from a trial in North Dakota in 21 had a white variety yielding 147 bu/a while the average of all varieties was 137 where the LSD (Least Significant Difference) at 5 percent probability was 27 bu/a (Carena, 22 and Carena and Berglund, 21). Most yellow varieties had yields within 27 bu/a of the mean. This suggests yields for most white and yellow corn varieties are similar. Thus, budget analysis below assumes yields are equal and then sensitivities are conducted. 6

13 bu/a US Corn White Corn Figure 7. Comparison of U.S. Corn and White Corn Yields, Budget Analysis A budget analysis of production of white or yellow corn was conducted using crop budgets generated for North Dakota and Nebraska. Budgets were obtained from Swenson and Haugen for North Dakota and from the Nebraska Extension Service. These were utilized to compare effects of yield differences and white corn premiums on profitability of white versus yellow corn varieties in selected growing regions of North Dakota and Nebraska. Costs and net returns to labor for yellow corn are shown in Figures 8 and 9 for North Dakota and Nebraska. Net returns to labor and management were estimated for both yellow and white corn. Yields and costs of producing both white and yellow corn were assumed equivalent. However, a premium of 1 cents/bu was applied to white corn. Net returns were less negative for white corn budgets in North Dakota than for yellow corn. Differences in net returns between white and yellow were highest for southeastern ($1/a) and south central ($9/a) North Dakota and lowest for southwestern ($6/a) North Dakota (Figure 1). For Nebraska, differences in net returns were highest for white corn production grown under irrigation in both southeast and east central Nebraska. White corn increased net returns under irrigation in these areas over yellow by $15/a (Figure 11). Sensitivities were conducted on both yields and premiums of white corn. Increasing white corn yields by 1 percent increased the advantage of white over yellow (Figures 12 and 13). These increases were largest in southeastern and south central North Dakota. Increasing yields of white corn by 1 percent increased the advantage of white corn net revenue over yellow in southeastern North Dakota from $1/a to $3/a. Decreases in yields by 1 percent affected the same areas the most. A 1 percent decrease in yields resulted in white corn being at a $9/a cost disadvantage to yellow, where in the base case it had a $1/a advantage. Increasing yields in Nebraska increased the advantage of white over yellow corn under irrigation from $15/a to $45/a. 7

14 25 Direct Indirect Net Return Labor Mgmt -2 Costs ($/Acre) Net Return to Labor and Mgmt ($/Acre) SW ND SC ND SE ND NC ND NE ND Figure 8. North Dakota Corn Production Costs, Costs ($/Acre) Direct Indirect Net Return Labor Mgmt Net Return to Labor and Mgmt ($/Acre) -125 SE NE Pivot Irr EC NE Grav Irr SE NE Dryland EC NE Pivot Irr Figure 9. Nebraska Corn Production Costs for Selected Areas and Crop Practices,

15 2 1 Yellow White Difference (White-Yellow) Costs ($/Acre) SW ND SC ND SE ND NC ND NE ND Figure 1. Comparison of Net Returns for Yellow and White Corn and Difference, North Dakota, Yellow White Difference (White-Yellow) Costs ($/Acre) SE NE Pivot Irr SE NE Dryland EC NE Grav Irr EC NE Pivot Irr Figure 11. Comparison of Net Returns for Yellow and White Corn and Difference, Nebraska,

16 Difference in Net Returns (White-Yellow $/Acre) % Yield Base -1% Yield SW ND SC ND SE ND NC ND NE ND Figure 12. Effect of Yields on Difference in Net Returns Relative to Yellow Corn, North Dakota, 22. Difference in Net Returns (White-Yellow $/Acre) % Yield Base -1% Yield -2 SE NE Pivot Irr SE NE Dryland EC NE Grav Irr EC NE Pivot Irr Figure 13. Effect of Yields on Difference in Net Returns Relative to Yellow Corn, Nebraska,

17 Changes in premiums for white corn had similar effects. Increasing the premium for white corn from 1 cents/bu to 3 cents/bu increased the advantage of white corn in southeastern North Dakota to $3/a (Figure 14). Similarly, decreasing the premium for white corn from 1 cents/bu to -1 cents/bu resulted in white corn in southeastern North Dakota being at a $1/a disadvantage to yellow corn production. Changes in premiums in Nebraska had similar effects to 1 percent changes in yields. Increasing the premium from 1 cents/bu to 3 cents/bu increased net returns under irrigation in southeastern and east central Nebraska from $15/a to $45/a (Figure 15). Difference in Net Returns (White-Yellow $/Acre) Prem 3c/b Base Prem 1 c/b Prem -1c/b SW ND SC ND SE ND NC ND NE ND Figure 14. Effect of White Corn Premiums on Difference in Net Returns Relative to Yellow Corn, North Dakota,

18 Difference in Net Returns (White-Yellow $/Acre) Prem 3c/b Base Prem 1 c/b Prem -1c/b -2 SE NE Pivot Irr SE NE Dryland EC NE Grav Irr EC NE Pivot Irr Figure 15. Effect of White Corn Premiums on Difference in Net Returns Relative to Yellow Corn, Nebraska, Geographic Competition Competitiveness of white corn production in North Dakota versus other regions was evaluated by comparing net corn prices to different markets and contrasting these with other prominent white corn producing regions (Nebraska). Rail shipping rates for corn to several export locations [Pacific Northwest (PNW), St. Louis, Texas Gulf, and to Mexico by rail] were taken from Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF). Rates were obtained for two North Dakota corn shuttle loading facilities, Anton (Hillsboro) and Jamestown, and for six shuttle locations in Nebraska which were chosen to represent crop reporting districts where white corn is produced. Domestic rail shipping rates were compared for one additional North Dakota location (Arvilla) and same locations for export comparisons to St. Joseph, MO (Table 2). Prices at specific markets were taken from AMS (22b) for April 22. Average monthly prices reflect largely No. 2 yellow corn; however, white and yellow corn prices delivered Kansas City provide insight into the spread between white and yellow corn. This spread (1 cents/bu) was added to all No. 2 yellow corn prices to examine geographic competition. 12

19 Table 2. Estimated Shipping Costs of White Corn from Selected North Dakota and Nebraska Origins to Export and Domestic Locations. Destinations Region- State Origin Station PNW St. Louis Gulf Mexico St. Joseph CE-ND Alton (Hillsboro) Cen-ND Jamestown NC-ND Arvilla.54 NE-NE S. Sioux City EC-NE Fremont SE-NE Lincoln Cen-NE Roseland SW-NE Maywood PH-NE Gurley* * For St. Joseph, Transportation rates to Alliance were utilized as none for Gurley were available. Estimated net local prices indicate that the PNW is the predominant market determining local prices for North Dakota white corn (Table 3). This is also true in Nebraska, but to a lesser extent. Net local prices for Alton are 22 cents/bu, and Jamestown is 25 cents/bu higher for delivery to the PNW than for shipments to St. Joseph. This suggests that a competitive price for supplies from Alton would be a price at St. Joseph of $2.24/bu or $ = $2.24. Thus, relative prices (i.e., PNW relative to St. Joseph) and/or shipping costs would have to decline for white corn to move from North Dakota to St. Joseph. In fact, relative prices for shipment of white corn from Alton and Jamestown to St. Joseph would be at a 12 cents/bu to 15 cents/bu disadvantage to yellow corn shipped to the PNW (PNW net local price less 1 cents/bu white corn premium). 13

20 Table 3. Estimated Net Local Price of White Corn for Specific Origins (Destination Price Less Transportation). Destinations Origin PNW St. Louis Gulf St. Joseph Region- State Price Net Local Price (Destination Price Less Transportation) CE-ND Alton (Hillsboro) Cen-ND Jamestown NC-ND Arvilla 1.48 NE-NE S. Sioux City EC-NE Fremont SE-NE Lincoln Cen-NE Roseland SW-NE Maywood PH-NE Gurley* * For St. Joseph, Transportation rates to Alliance were utilized as none for Gurley were available. Conclusions U.S. white corn production, consumption and exports have increased dramatically from 198 to 2. Production and area have since declined. White corn has been produced largely in Nebraska, Kentucky, and Texas, although production in Texas has declined and production in other states (Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa) have increased. Major domestic processors of white corn are located in the southern United States, with the closest large domestic processor located in St. Joseph, MO. Comparisons of white and yellow corn varieties suggest yields are similar but have a wide range of variability. Net returns for white corn are most affected by white corn premiums and yield differences relative to yellow corn in southeastern and south central North Dakota. A 1 percent yield advantage for white over yellow corn or increases in the white corn premium from 1 cents/bu to 3 cents/bu would increase net returns to labor by $1/a in southeastern North Dakota. Effects of increases in yield advantages or white corn premiums had a larger impact in Nebraska than in North Dakota. Estimated net local prices for North Dakota were cents/bu higher for shipment to the PNW export market than for shipment to domestic 14

21 markets. This dominance of the PNW market for exports of either white or yellow corn from North Dakota and cost disadvantages relative to production from Nebraska make serving the domestic processing market not so attractive. These conclusions depend on the prevailing conditions remaining in place. Results would change if: 1) a local processor or domestic market were to arise which was not at a disadvantage to being supplied from other areas; 2) premiums for white corn over yellow corn were to increase for a sustained period of time; 3) yield advantages of white corn varieties relative to yellow corn varieties increase; or 4) an export market which was not disadvantaged relative to being supplied from other regions were to emerge. 15

22 References Agricultural Marketing Service. 22a. Grain Transportation Report. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC. Agricultural Marketing Service. 22b. Grain and Feed Weekly Summary and Statistics Vol 5(19, May 1). U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC. Burlington Northern Santa Fe. 22. Corn Shuttle Train Rates. Nebraska Cooperative Extension Service Nebraska Crop Budgets. University of Nebraska, Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Carena, M. J. 22. Yield Data on Yellow/White Corn Variety Trials at Fargo. North Dakota State University, Department of Plant Sciences. Carena, M. J., and D. Berglund. 21. North Dakota Corn Performance Testing 21. Circular A-793(Revised), North Dakota Agricultural Experiment Station and Extension Service, Fargo. Swenson, Andrew and Ron Haugen. 21. Projected 22 Crop Budgets. Farm Management Planning Guide. North Dakota State University, Extension Service, Fargo. 16