Interaction of Spot and Future Prices of Electricity
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1 Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten LEHRSTUHL FÜR ENERGIEHANDEL UND FINANZDIENSTLEISTUNGEN LEHRSTUHL FÜRENERGIEWIRTSCHAFT Energy Finance / INREC 2010 Interaction of Spot and Future Prices of Electricity Ihr Ansprechpartner: Herr Lenck Telefon: +49 (0) DEW21 - Risikomanagement 8. Oktober 2010
2 Introduction The most common expression regarding power price forecast in the market is the best forecast of future electricity prices is the today s future derivative price. This sentence is referring to the potential development of the yearly average spot price in the future in comparison to the today s traded derivative prices of a yearly delivery of electricity for the same period. But how good has the forecast been and what type of models can be used in the electricity market to describe these interactions? Page 2
3 Forward Prices: What do they mean? The market price for Cal 09 Base on the , is the average spot price (Phelix Base) on this day on the market for the year The same applies for Cal 09 Peak (Prognosis 2008) (Mean 2008) Page 3
4 What is HPFC? past future (Until ) (from ) Price Spot (EEX) Price HPFC The Hourly Price Forward Curve is the present expectation for how the electricity prices will develop over a period of time in the future. Page 4
5 Future contracts Future contracts Future Prices as Forecast Granularity Day Ahead Spot Month Quarter Year Time Granularity PFC Pricing n.a. Synthetical prices Day Ahead Spot Month Quarter Year Time Page 5
6 hpfc Procedure Summary Forward prices Month / quarter / year e. g. EEX historical prices Calendar Quarter Prices Month Prices Day Prices Hour Prices Page 6
7 Retail Price Calculation Historical Electrcitiy Demand Historical Price Pattern Spot, Current Future Prices Load Forecast hpfc Individual offer Calculatory net energy prices Combination of demand curve and current future prices. Usually used for Back-to-Back procurement, deviations still possible. Page 7
8 Modelling power plant dispatch Merit Order availability renewables power plant DB efficiencies according to year of construction STMGC according to commodity prices Power Demand regression analysis of daily average demand parameters: calendar and temperature data hourly load profile according to monthly day type Power Plant Dispatch hourly power plant dispatch with according market clearing price Page 8
9 Expected Spot Market Prices as Evaluation for Power Plants Fundamental Merit Order Model for Spot Prices until 2040 Power Plant Hedging is done on the Future Market Source: RWe Investor and Analyst H Conference Call Source: Energy Brainpool Page 9
10 No. of Oberservation F1BY 2009 in 2008 Trading Spot Price ,85 [EUR/MWh] 35 F1BY Jan ,00 58,00 60,00 62,00 64,00 66,00 68,00 70,00 72,00 74,00 76,00 78,00 80,00 82,00 84,00 86,00 88,00 Source: EEX F!BY JAN 09 data Price [EUR/MWh] Page 10
11 Hourly power price vs. wind power forecast MW /MWh Aug Aug 2008, working days only Page 11
12 MWh/h EEG-residuals (e. g. : wind power) Zu weniglack Wind of gegenüber wind power der EEG-Windprognose generation -> Residualmenge in regard muss to EEG s nachbeschafft wind forecast werden Zu viel Surplus Wind gegenüber of wind power der EEG-Windprognose generation -> Residualmengen in regard to EEG s muss abverkauft wind forecast werden Surplus Wind-Überschuss Shortfall Wind-Mangel Windenergieeinspeisung power generation EEG s Windanteil wind der power EEG-Prognose generation (geschätzt) forecast Page 12
13 Three legislative steps to bring power from renewables into the commercial market Allocation of EEG electricity Allocation of EEG electricity physically to Trading residuals Refinancing the EEG feed-in-tariff 1 until July 31 st, 2009 municipalities as monthly constant base load EEG-band OTC/EPEX (not regulated, approx. 1/3 of residuals on EEX spot auction) EEG tariff and power grid charge per kwh of consumption 2 since August 1 st, 2009 municipalities as monthly constant base load EEG-band EPEX spot market only (price independent offers based on forecast of EEG power generation ±3, EUR/MWh Spot Auction ±9, EUR/MWh Intraday) EEG tariff and power grid charge per kwh of consumption 3 from January 1 st, 2010 EPEX spot market only (price independent offers based on forecast of EEG power generation -3, EUR/MWh Spot Auction down to -9, EUR/MWh Intraday) total EEG generation none EEG residuals EEG share cteur/kwh of consumption (2010) and power grid charge (for EEG-balancing energy only) Bringing EEG-electricity into the market offers economical stimuli to prepare the market for competitive electricity from renewables. Page 13
14 EEX intraday trading EEX day-ahead spot auction October 4th, 2009: Extreme negative spot market prices Minimum: EUR/MWh from 2:00 to 3:00 am Minimum: -1, EUR/MWh from 0:00 to 1:00 am last mean max min Source: eex.com Page 14
15 EUR/MWh Unlimited Bid of Renewable Energy on the EPEX Spot , Stunde 1: EUR/MWh Angebot Nachfrage MWh Source: eex.com Page 15
16 No. of Oberservation F1BY 2010 in 2009 Trading Spot price ytd 42,19 [EUR/MWh] F1BY Jan ,00 43,00 44,00 45,00 46,00 47,00 48,00 49,00 50,00 51,00 52,00 53,00 54,00 55,00 Source: EEX F!BY JAN 10 data Price [EUR/MWh] Page 16
17 EUR/MWh Forecasting Quality of F1BM two Month Ahead % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% % -20% -40% Ø Terminmarktpreis für Monat t (in t - 2 Monate) [EUR/MWh] Ø Spotmarktpreis in Monat t (PHELIX) [EUR/MWh] Abweichung (Spot-Termin) [EUR/MWh] Abweichung (Spot/Termin) [%] Page 17
18 [EUR/MWh] Is Everything Fundamental? 60,00 F1BY Jan 11 Price Development in ,00 50,00 45,00 40,00 Date Page 18
19 Modelling Needs Future price do show a strongly deviation from the spot prices Future prices are the expectation value of spot prices in the delivery period Beside of risk premium of weather risks, supply risks, convenience yield or security yields (for hedging purposes) legal changes in the spot market regime do affect the forecasting potential of future prices The market needs a much better understanding in the interaction of future and spot prices Scientific models should be applied soon in the standard procedure in evaluating supply contracts and power plant dispatching Page 19
20 Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten Ihr Ansprechpartner: Herr Lenck Telefon: +49 (0) DEW21 - Risikomanagement
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