Commodity Price Outlook & Risks

Transcription

1 Commodity Outlook & Risks Research Department, Commodities Team September, 20 This monthly report presents a price outlook and risk assessment for selected commodities as depicted from futures and options markets. Outlook. After reaching a new low of 40 dollars on August 24, oil spot prices rebounded and are hovering around 45 dollars. markets are still pointing to a modest increase in prices over the next year. Uncertainty about its outlook is still substantial following sustained oversupply and subdued aggregate demand growth. Metal prices are expected to remain flat owing to continued slow demand, especially from China. Gasoline prices are expected to decline in the colder months and rise throughout the next summer, while U.S. natural gas prices are projected to rise through the coming winter and decline thereafter; both following seasonal patterns. Agricultural commodity prices are mixed over the next year, with soybean and soybean meal prices declining on ample supply, while wheat and coffee prices are expected to slightly increase. Risks. The likelihood of per-barrel prices for WTI falling below $30 in the next months is percent, 3 percentage points higher than August, while the probability of prices rising above $60 dropped to percent, 2 percentage points lower than last month, signaling a downward shift in price uncertainty. Meanwhile, the likelihood of Brent falling below $30 dropped to 7 percent from 9 percent in August, while the probability of prices rising above $60 increased to 17 percent from percent, reflecting an upward shift in the balance of risks. The likelihood of per-mmbtu U.S. natural gas prices below $2 ( months forward) increased to percent from percent, while the probability of prices rising above $4 slightly decrease to 5 percent, signaling an expected decrease in natural gas prices in the coming year. For metals, the risk of copper prices falling below $1.5 a pound remained broadly unchanged at 6 percent, while the probability of prices increasing above $3 a pound slightly fell to percent from percent, reflecting sustained downward pressure on copper prices. The probability of gold prices falling below $900 a troy ounce increased to 17 percent from percent, while the probability of an increase beyond $00 increased to 6 percent from 4 percent, suggesting an increase in market uncertainty. The likelihood of per bushel corn prices below $3 slightly increased to percent, while prices above $5.5 increased to 5 percent. The likelihood of soybean meal prices rising above $ a short ton decreased to 7 percent from percent last month. Meanwhile, the likelihood of per-bushel soybean prices below $7 rallied to 21 percent from 4 percent in August, and the probability of an increase above $ decreased to 4 percent from 7 percent, owing to ample production prospects. Contents. Fan charts (pages 2-3) show historical and forward futures prices (red line), with calculated confidence intervals of +/- 2 standard deviations (in purple/blue). Confidence intervals are derived from prices of options on September, 20. Likelihoods of spot prices rising/falling from specified price thresholds occurring at the 3-, 6-, 9- and -month forward (or closest available) horizons for each commodity are shown in tabular form (pages 4-5). In addition to price thresholds, the probability of each commodity spot price rising/falling by a certain percentage is shown (pages 6-7). Relevant contract specifications for each commodity are also shown (page 8). 1

2 Selected Commodities Market Outlook and Risks WTI Crude Oil Brent Crude Oil (U.S. dollars a barrel) 0 (U.S. dollars a barrel) Natural Gas 20 Gasoline (U.S. dollars a MMBtu) 8 (U.S. cents a gallon) Gold Copper (U.S. cents a pound) 500 (U.S. dollars a troy ounce)

3 Selected Commodities Market Outlook and Risks (concluded) Coffee Corn (U.S. cents a bushel) 900 (U.S. cents a pound) Rough Rice 24 (U.S. cents a bushel) Wheat (U.S. cents a hundredweight) 0 Soybean Meal Soybeans (U.S. cents a bushel) 1800 (U.S. dollars a short ton)

4 WTI Crude Oil (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a barrel) s Brent Crude Oil (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a barrel) s < < < < < < < < > > > > > > > > > > > > > > U.S. Natural Gas (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars an MMBtu) s Gasoline (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a gallon) s < < < < < < > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Copper (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a pound) s -based s Gold (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a troy ounce) s < < < < < < < < > > > > > > > > > > > > > >

5 -based s (concluded) Corn (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a bushel) s Coffee (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a pound) s < < < < < < > < > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Rough Rice (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a hundredweight) s Wheat (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a bushel) s < < < < < < < > < > > > > > > > > > > > > > Soybeans (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a bushel) s Soybean Meal (probabilities in percent; prices in U.S. dollars a short ton) s < < < < < < < < < > > > > > > > > > > > > >

6 -based Probabilities of Changes WTI Crude Oil (in percent) Brent Crude Oil % % % % % % % % % % % % % % U.S. Natural Gas Gasoline % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Copper % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Gold 6

7 -based Probabilities of Changes (concluded) Corn (in percent) Coffee % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Rough Rice Wheat % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Soybeans Soybean Meal % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

8 Commodity Derivative Contract Specifications Commodity Contract Physical Characteristics Contract Size Pricing Unit Months Traded Light sweet crude oil 1,000 barrels U.S. dollars per barrel Brent crude oil ICE Europe One crude oil futures contract of 1,000 barrels Consecutive months up to and including February 2020 WTI crude oil New York Light sweet crude oil 1,000 barrels U.S. dollars per barrel One crude oil futures contract of 1,000 barrels Consecutive months are listed for the current year and the next five years; in addition, the Jun and Dec contract months are listed beyond the sixth year. Natural Gas New York Natural gas delivered at Henry Hub, LA,000 MMBtu U.S. dollars per MMBtu One natural gas futures contract of,000 MMBtu Consecutive months for the current year plus the next twelve full calendar years. Gasoline Gold New York New York Harbor RBOB 42,000 gallons U.S. cents per gallon Gold (a minimum of 995 fineness) One gasoline futures contract of 42,000 gallons 0 troy ounces One COMEX Gold futures contract U.S. dollars per troy ounce Consecutive months for 36 months Current calendar month; the next two calendar months; any Feb, Apr, Aug, and Oct falling within a 23-month period; and any Jun and Dec falling within a 72-month period beginning with the current month. Corn Coffee Rough rice ICE Yellow corn grade #2 5,000 bushels (7 MT) U.S. cents per bushel Arabica coffee from 19 countries of origin U.S. #2 long grain rough rice with a total milling yield of 65%+ One corn futures contract (of a specified month) of 5,000 bushels 37,500 lbs U.S. cents per pound One coffee futures contract (of a specified month) of 37,500 lbs 2,000 hundredweights (CWT) One rough rice futures contract of 2,000 hundredweights (CWT) U.S. cents per hundredweight Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Dec. The monthly option contract exercises into the nearby futures contract. Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Dec. The monthly option contract exercises into the nearby futures contract. Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Nov. The monthly option contract exercises into the nearby futures contract. Wheat Soybean meal #2 soft red winter wheat 5,000 bushels (6 MT) U.S. cents per bushel Meal with minimum protein of 48% One Wheat futures contract (of a specified month) of 5,000 bushels 0 short tons U.S. dollars per ton One soybean meal futures contract (of a specified month) of 0 short tons Mar, May, July, Sep, Dec. The monthly option contract exercises into the nearby futures contract. Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct, Dec. The monthly option contract exercises into the nearby futures contract. Soybeans Yellow soybean grade #2 5,000 bushels (6 MT) U.S. cents per bushel One soybean futures contract (of a specified month) of 5,000 bushels Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Aug, Sep, Nov. The monthly option contract exercises into the nearby futures contract. Sources: Board of Trade, ICE, Bloomberg, L.P. 8