Everyone Missed It! 2016 Elections Analysis. U.S. President U.S. Senate U.S. House of Representatives Governors

Transcription

1 Everyone Missed It! 2016 Elections Analysis U.S. President U.S. Senate U.S. House of Representatives Governors November, 2016

2 EVERYONE MISSED IT! The World Is In Shock As the sun rose on Tuesday, November 8 th, 2016, Election Day in the United States, those associated with politics in the United States; pollsters, political pundits, campaign professionals, and the news media all agreed on one thing on Wednesday morning, the world would be talking about Presidentelect Hillary Clinton. When the dust settled, and the American people had spoken, on Wednesday, a shocked world was talking about President-elect Donald Trump. With a wave of pro-trump votes coming out of rural America, coupled with a less than enthusiastic turnout for Secretary Clinton by the so-called Obama Coalition, in the end, the GOP s victory up and down the ballot was overwhelming and complete. From the cheap seats At 7:00pm on election night, I arrived at a GOP watch party. The first person I saw was a well-known and well-regarded Republican pollster. I asked How will we do? He responded We re going to be wiped out. Trump will go down in flames. We will lose the Senate. We will keep the House, but just barely. And so, for the next four hours most of us at that party walked around in a despondent glaze. And then it was time for the American people to weigh-in. ELECTIONS President Riding a nation-wide wave of economic populism and pro-america nationalism, Donald Trump was elected the 45th President of the United States on Tuesday, November 8th, Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Electoral College: Popular Vote 60.3 million votes 60.9 million votes Difference -@600,000 votes +600,000 votes % of Popular Vote: 49.8% 50.2% 1

3 The final 2016 Electoral College Map Republican / Trump = Red - Democratic / Clinton = Blue So How Did Trump Win For nearly the entire year, Mr. Trump consistently trailed Secretary Clinton in every major national poll. He raised significantly less money than she did, and, as of the end of October, his campaign had raised only half as much money as Clinton s campaign. Most agree that Trump underperformed in all three debates. And it was commonly understood that his campaign was well behind Clinton s campaign in ground game, grassroots operations, and Get Out the Vote (GOTV) efforts. But Trump figured out what was itching the American people; and he scratched it. Ending the status quo in Washington, DC. Trump argued and the voters agreed that the so-called Washington establishment had fully disconnected from, and been disinterested in, the issues that were most pressing to American voters. Trump was able to brand Secretary Clinton as the embodiment of 30 years of Washington establishment and status quo. This was the same itch that propelled a little-known U.S. Senator into The White House eight years before. Barack Obama was the change agent then. And in 2008, Obama also scratched that itch. And his efforts to get Secretary Clinton elected to the presidency in 2016 caused an enormous disconnect among his own supporters and the greater Obama political coalition. Four keys to victory 2

4 With that as a brief background, there appears to be many keys to Trump s victory, but four stand out: 1. Like President Reagan in 1980, working class voters, in traditionally big Democrat blue collar suburbs, came out to vote Republican in A key county that all pundits watch as a barometer, Macomb County, Michigan, outside Detroit, was one of 12 Obama Counties in 2012 in Michigan that flipped to vote for Trump in The Obama coalition did not turn out in force for Secretary Clinton where she needed it to. Her vote among African Americans was down in critical areas of targeted states. For instance, she received 63,000 fewer votes than President Obama had received in 2012 in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland, Ohio). Because of this deficit in that powerful Democratic county, the battleground state of Ohio, on election night, was never close. The same reliable Obama votes in Wayne County (Detroit, MI) and in Milwaukee County, WI, also did not materialize for Secretary Clinton. 3. Trump ran up the score in rural America. While Mitt Romney also won rural America by 19 points against President Obama, Trump won rural America by an astounding 45 points. The economic message of bad trade deals, poor immigration policies, and cronyism in Washington moved numbers for Trump. And while Trump focused on these pocketbook issues, Secretary Clinton chose not to articulate a strong economic message; instead focusing on Trump s temperament. 4. Women were predicted to come out in force to vote for the first female president. They didn t. An avalanche of women votes for Secretary Clinton was expected. It never materialized. 54% of Secretary Clinton s voters were women, and 42% of Mr. Trump s were women, an overall change of only 1% in Mrs. Clinton s favor compared with the gender gap in % of her voters and 53% of Mr. Trump s voters were men, an overall change of 5% in his favor. The Numbers President Obama, in 2008 and 2012, had so thoroughly dominated the Electoral College map, that even if Trump had won all traditionally Republican states, he still would have come up short of the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the election. The Trump strategy was clear: Confirm wins in all states that Mitt Romney, the 2012 Republican nominee, had won in Win the always competitive battleground states of Ohio, Florida and North Carolina; not an easy task to run the board. Win two out of 6 reliably Democratic (blue) states; nearly impossible: 3

5 1. Virginia 2. Pennsylvania 3. Wisconsin 4. Michigan 5. Colorado 6. Nevada That strategy would get Trump over 270. But right up until Election Day, Florida, North Carolina and all of the reliably blue states were trending Clinton in the polls; not Trump. On Election night, once Trump had won all Romney states, and Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina, and then Wisconsin, he was on the doorstep. Once the Associated Press declared Trump the winner of Pennsylvania at 2:00am (Eastern), there were no longer enough Electoral College votes left outstanding for Secretary Clinton to overtake Mr. Trump. (Note: If you were watching John King, the lead host at CNN on Election night, he did a masterful job of breaking down each state - each county in each state - as the results poured in. He was so good, that by 2:00am, he was on-air signaling to his other CNN colleagues that there were no longer enough potential Hillary votes to count to push Secretary Clinton in the lead and, as such, not enough Electoral College votes left for Secretary Clinton to reach 270. In short, he was on-air wondering aloud why it was taking so long for his colleagues to call the election for Trump.) How Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan Flipped for Trump Donald Trump owes his victory in the Electoral College to three states, that traditionally go Democratic, but that he won by the smallest number of votes. At game time, these states were expected to go to Secretary Clinton: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Hillary s Blue Wall Crumbles In campaign parlance, the blue wall is the Midwest / Northeast patch of very reliable Democratic blue states in presidential elections. It is commonly comprised of the states of: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Maryland, (and all of the Northeast states.) When Democrats sweep those states, there is nearly no chance a Republican can win the presidency. Secretary Clinton was banking on the blue wall. 4

6 In fact, the 2016 presidential election was decided by about 100,000 votes out of more than 120 million ballots cast all in the blue wall. Trump won: Pennsylvania by 1.1 points (68,236 votes) Wisconsin by 0.9 points (27,257 votes) Michigan by 0.2 points (11,837 votes) Trump's victory in these three states was a big shift from 2012, when President Obama won: Pennsylvania by 5.2 points Wisconsin by 6.7 points Michigan by 9.5 points Although the national vote swung only about 3 points toward GOP in 2016, leaving Secretary Clinton as the winner in the popular vote, these three states swung significantly toward the Republican presidential nominee in 2016 giving him the win. Trump won rural America because he ran as an outsider. Being so completely rejected by the establishment, both Republican and Democratic, was a badge of pride. When both President Bushes, past Bush Administration officials, and Republican organization types, publicly expressed that they were not voting for Trump, they thought they were hurting his chances to win when, in fact, it appears that it simply strengthened his hand with the American voter. Working class voters, particularly in Rust Belt states, who usually voted for Democrats, came out in substantial numbers for Trump. They accounted for more than 4 in 10 voters in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio and made up fully half of all voters in Iowa. Trump's strong support among those with less than a college education is at least partly a reflection of how little the economic recovery benefited these voters. Their job opportunities and their incomes have fallen, even as broader measures of the nation's job market show improvement. This color-coded county map of the 2016 results shows a sea of Republican red in the country's midsection with blue states largely arrayed along the two coasts; this is the rural/urban divide Vote by County 5

7 ELECTIONS - U.S. Senate Result of the 2016 U.S. Senate Races in those states that had elections This was the year, with or without Secretary Clinton on the ballot, that Democrats expected to wrest control of the U.S. Senate from the GOP. It was simple math. 6

8 In a presidential election year, Republican s had to protect and defend 24 incumbents, while Democrats only needed to protect and defend 10. In a Senate with a 54 (R) 46 (D) balance, surely Democrats could knock-off four Republicans to tie the Senate. And if Secretary Clinton won, then Vice President Tim Kaine would also serve as the President of the Senate, thereby giving Democrats the majority in the Senate. But Democrats had much higher plans. Democrats in Washington had their eyes on a seven-seat swing. One month before Election Day, Democrats thought that, with a strong Clinton showing, seven Republican seats could go Democrat: 1. In Illinois, GOP incumbent Mark Kirk was down nearly 30 points 2. In Wisconsin, GOP incumbent Ron Johnson was down 23 points 3. In North Carolina, GOP incumbent Richard Burr was dead even 4. In Pennsylvania, GOP incumbent Pat Toomey was down 2 5. In New Hampshire, GOP incumbent Kelly Ayotte was down 2 6. In Missouri, GOP incumbent Roy Blunt was dead even 7. And in Indiana, where a Republican incumbent was retiring, Democrats had cajoled popular former Senator and Governor Evan Bayh to enter the race to win back his old seat in the Senate for the Democrats. When he entered the race, he immediately had a 20-point lead in his race against little known Todd Young. But, with such a strong Trump showing nation-wide, the Democratic Senate strategy fizzled. In the end, they only picked up two seats to assure that Republicans will maintain the majority in the U.S. Senate Illinois Senator Mark Kirk and New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte were defeated. All the others, including an astounding comeback in Wisconsin for Senator Ron Johnson, were returned to the U.S. Senate. (Side note: Evan Bayh s sure thing evaporated after it was revealed that he no longer lived in Indiana. In fact, during a debate, he could not recall his address in Indiana. Little known Republican Todd Young walked into the U.S. Senate on Election night) In 2018, the math of the Senate will be on the other foot. Democrats will need to defend and protect 23 incumbents, while Republicans will only need to protect and defend 8. ELECTIONS - U.S. House of Representatives 7

9 2016 Post-Election Congressional Map Much like the Senate, Democrats thought that they had a good chance of eating into the Republican s majority. No one was expecting a flip of the chamber, but certainly a much closer balance in the chamber. And while it will be better in the 115 th Congress for Democrats, the new totals of is a pyrrhic victory at best. The enormous amount of money, exhausting ground game and grassroots effort to only take back 7 seats, while it is a victory, it is also a defeat of sorts. The GOP Leadership will remain the same as last year with Paul Ryan remaining as the Speaker of the House. Some lower leadership positions might change. The more conservative elements in the House are looking for a seat at the table, and electing a conservative to those lower posts would put them at the GOP House Leadership table. It is expected that Nancy Pelosi will be re-elected as the Minority Leader. However, she has been the Democratic leader since 2007 and beginning in 2010, she has managed a bigger minority each cycle. With only a seven seat gain in 2016, in a year expected to see big Democrat gains, many Democrats in the House are wondering about a change at the top. Still, with such a giant California delegation, anyone running against her would be in the weaker position if they started a campaign to topple Pelosi. If she runs, she will be the Minority Leader again. ELECTIONS - Governors After this election, Republicans will control 33 of the 50 governorships in the U.S. 8

10 The GOP picked up three new governorships on Election Day. In Missouri, Republican Eric Greitens, a former Navy SEAL, won the contest to succeed Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon, who was term-limited. New Hampshire Republican Chris Sununu followed in his father John Sununu s footsteps by winning the open state executive seat. In reliably blue-state Vermont, where the senior Senator is a very popular liberal Bernie Sanders, the voters shocked the pundits and pollsters by electing Republican Lt. Gov. Phil Scott as Governor. Democrats are expected to pick-up the North Carolina governorship with a win by Democrat Roy Cooper over Incumbent Republican Pat McCrory. As of this writing, Cooper has a 48.9% to 48.8% lead. It is very close, but short of finding a box of unopened votes, Cooper will be the next Governor of North Carolina. Where do Democrats politically stand after the 8 year Obama Administration President Obama took office in 2009 with a strong national Democratic Party; 60 Democrats in the Senate (filibuster-proof super-majority), 257 House members, and over half of the governorships at 26. After this election, the Democratic Party is a shell of what it was in 2009 at the beginning of the inspirational Obama Administration; only 48 in the Senate, 195 in the House, and 17 governors. In the state legislatures, the farm system for both political parties, the bench is much worse for Democrats. Republicans now hold 33 governorships, eleven more than they held when President Obama was inaugurated. During the last eight years, the GOP has won governorships in purple and even deep blue states: Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio. In 2009, Democrats were in full control of 27 state legislatures; Republicans held full power in 14. With Tuesday's results, the Republicans now control 68 out of 99 state chambers, a historic high for the GOP. And they will have full control of 33 legislatures. The Democrats will be in full command in 13 states. 9

11 Conclusion "The most important political story during the nearly eight years of the Obama presidency is how that presidency delivered a neutron-bomb strike to his party," Podhoretz wrote. "Obama and the political structure of America have been left standing -- but nearly 1,000 Democratic officeholders have been defeated." John Podhoretz Columnist for the New York Post For all the pre-election talk of the coming Republican civil war and how changing demography has rendered the GOP a relic, the only conclusion one can come to is that the Republican Party has emerged from the November 8th elections arguably the strongest it has been since the 1920s. 10