Newsweek Poll Election 2008 One Year Out Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Final Topline Results (11/2/07)

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1 Newsweek Poll Election 2008 One Year Out Princeton Survey Research Associates International Final Topline Results (11/2/07) N = 1,002 registered voters Margin of error: plus or minus 4 Interviewing dates: 10/31-11/1/07 Notes: Data are weighted so that sample demographics match Census Current Population Survey parameters for gender, age, education, race, region, and population density. Results based on smaller subgroups are subject to larger margins of sampling error. Sample size and margins of error for these subgroups are included in a separate methodology statement. An asterisk (*) indicates a value less than 1%. Questions D2/D2a asked here (results posted at end of document). 1. Now I m going to name seven Democratic presidential candidates. After I read all the names, tell me which ONE you would most like to see nominated as the Democratic Party s presidential candidate in The choices are (READ AND RANDOMIZE 1-7) BASED ON REGISTERED DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS Total Dem Lean Dem 8/1-2/07 6/21/ Hillary Clinton Barack Obama John Edwards Joe Biden Dennis Kucinich Bill Richardson * Chris Dodd * Other candidate (VOL.) * None/No preference (VOL.) * 7 Don t know Trend results for Thursday night interviewing only (n=186). Trend results for Other candidate include Mike Gravel. Trend results for Other candidate include Michael Bloomberg and Mike Gravel.

2 2 2. Now I m going to name eight REPUBLICAN presidential candidates. After I read all the names, tell me which ONE you would most like to see nominated as the Republican Party s presidential candidate in The choices are (READ AND RANDOMIZE 1-8) BASED ON REGISTERED REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS Total Rep Lean Rep 8/1-2/07 6/20-21/07 30 Rudy Giuliani Fred Thompson John McCain Mitt Romney Mike Huckabee Ron Paul Duncan Hunter * * Tom Tancredo * * Other candidate (VOL.) * None/No preference (VOL.) Don t know READ INTRO TO Q3ab-Q11ab TO ALL RVs: (RV1=1,3): Now I m going to describe some different choices of candidates voters might have in next year s general election for president. As I read each one, please tell me how you would vote if the election were being held TODAY. Order randomized for questions 3ab-11ab. 3a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and Rudy Giuliani, the Republican. ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Clinton, the Democrat; or Giuliani, the Republican? Total Clinton Total Giuliani Undec./Other CURRENT TOTAL =100 Red states (Bush in 04) =100 Blue states (Kerry in 04) =100 6/20-21/ =100 5/2-3/ =100 2/28-3/1/ =100 1/24-25/ =100 1/17-18/ =100 12/6-7/ = Trend results for Other candidate include Sam Brownback and Tommy Thompson Trend results for Other candidate include Michael Bloomberg, Jim Gilmore, Sam Brownback, and Tommy Thompson.

3 3 4a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Rudy Giuliani, the Republican. ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Obama, the Democrat; or Giuliani, the Republican? Total Obama Total Giuliani Undec./Other CURRENT TOTAL =100 Red states =100 Blue states =100 6/20-21/ =100 5/2-3/ =100 2/28-3/1/ =100 1/24-25/ =100 1/17-18/ =100 12/6-7/ =100 5a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between John Edwards, the Democrat; and Rudy Giuliani, the Republican. ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Edwards, the Democrat; or Giuliani, the Republican? Total Edwards Total Giuliani Undec./Other CURRENT TOTAL =100 Red states =100 Blue states =100 6/20-21/ =100 5/2-3/ =100 2/28-3/1/ =100 1/24-25/ =100 1/17-18/ =100

4 4 6a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat; and Mitt Romney, the Republican. ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Clinton, the Democrat; or Romney, the Republican? Total Clinton Total Romney Undec./Other CURRENT TOTAL =100 Red states =100 Blue states =100 6/20-21/ =100 5/2-3/ =100 2/28-3/1/ =100 1/24-25/ =100 12/6-7/ =100 7a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Barack Obama, the Democrat; and Mitt Romney, the Republican. ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Obama, the Democrat; or Romney, the Republican? Total Obama Total Romney Undec./Other CURRENT TOTAL =100 Red states =100 Blue states =100 =100 6/20-21/ =100 5/2-3/ =100 2/28-3/1/ =100 1/24-25/ =100 12/6-7/ =100

5 5 8a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between John Edwards, the Democrat; and Mitt Romney, the Republican. ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Edwards, the Democrat; or Romney, the Republican? Total Edwards Total Romney Undec./Other CURRENT TOTAL =100 Red states =100 Blue states =100 6/20-21/ =100 5/2-3/ =100 2/28-3/1/ =100 1/24-25/ =100 9a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat; and Fred Thompson, the Republican. ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Clinton, the Democrat; or Thompson, the Republican? Total Clinton Total Thompson Undec./Other CURRENT TOTAL =100 Red states =100 Blue states =100 TREND 6/20-21/ =100 10a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between Barack Obama, the Democrat; and Fred Thompson, the Republican. ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Obama, the Democrat; or Thompson, the Republican? Total Obama Total Thompson Undec./Other CURRENT TOTAL =100 Red states =100 Blue states =100 TREND 6/20-21/ =100

6 6 11a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE between John Edwards, the Democrat; and Fred Thompson, the Republican. ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Edwards, the Democrat; or Thompson, the Republican? Total Edwards Total Thompson Undec./Other CURRENT TOTAL =100 Red states =100 Blue states =100 TREND 6/20-21/ = If New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg were to run as an INDEPENDENT presidential candidate in 2008, how likely would you be to vote for him? Would you say (READ) Very Somewhat Not too Not at likely likely likely all likely DK CURRENT TOTAL =100 Red states =100 Blue states =100 Republicans =100 Democrats =100 Independents =100 6/20-21/ =100 11/5-6/98 (Ross Perot) =100 6 Trend wording read If Ross Perot were to run again as a third party presidential candidate in the year 2000, how likely would you be to vote for him? Results based on total adults.

7 7 READ INTRO TO Q13ab-Q16ab TO ALL RVs: (RV1=1,3): Now I m going to ask how you would vote if Michael Bloomberg ran as an Independent presidential candidate against some different Republican and Democratic candidates. For each one, please tell me how you would vote if the election were being held TODAY. Order randomized for questions 13ab-16ab. 13a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE among Hillary Clinton, the Democrat; Rudy Giuliani, the Republican; and Michael Bloomberg, the Independent. (Democrat and Republican choices rotated) Who would you be most likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Clinton, the Democrat; Giuliani, the Republican; or Bloomberg, the Independent? Total Clinton Total Giuliani Total Bloomberg Undec./Other CURRENT TOTAL =100 Red states =100 Blue states =100 TREND 6/20-21/ =100 14a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE among Barack Obama, the Democrat; Rudy Giuliani, the Republican; and Michael Bloomberg, the Independent. (Democrat and Republican choices rotated) Who would you be most likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Obama, the Democrat; Giuliani, the Republican; or Bloomberg, the Independent? Total Obama Total Giuliani Total Bloomberg Undec./Other CURRENT TOTAL =100 Red states =100 Blue states =100 TREND 6/20-21/ =100 15a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE among Hillary Clinton, the Democrat; Mitt Romney, the Republican; and Michael Bloomberg, the Independent. (Democrat and Republican choices rotated) Who would you be most likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Clinton, the Democrat; Romney, the Republican; or Bloomberg, the Independent? Total Clinton Total Romney Total Bloomberg Undec./Other CURRENT TOTAL =100 Red states =100 Blue states =100

8 8 16a/b. Suppose you HAD TO CHOOSE among Barack Obama, the Democrat; Mitt Romney, the Republican; and Michael Bloomberg, the Independent. (Democrat and Republican choices rotated) Who would you be most likely to vote for? [IF OTHER/UNDECIDED, RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED] As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Obama, the Democrat; Romney, the Republican; or Bloomberg, the Independent? Total Obama Total Romney Total Bloomberg Undec./Other CURRENT TOTAL =100 Red states =100 Blue states = Turning to some different questions What is your overall opinion of George W. Bush? Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him? Favorable Unfavorable DK CURRENT TOTAL =100 Republicans =100 Democrats =100 Independents =100 10/27-29/ =100 10/21-22/ =100 10/14-15/ =100 9/30-10/2/ =100 9/9-10/ =100 9/2-3/ =100 7/29-30/ =100 7/8-9/ =100 5/13-14/ =100 4/8-9/ =100 3/25-26/ =100 3/18-19/ =100 2/19-20/ =100 2/24-25/ =100 1/17-19/ =100 10/21-24/ =100

9 9 18. In deciding which presidential candidate to support in 2008, which ONE of the following issues is most important to you...(read AND ROTATE 1-7) Total Rep Dem Ind 22 The economy and jobs Iraq Health care Terrorism and national security Taxes and government spending Immigration The environment and global warming Other/None of these (vol.) 2 * 1 4 Don t know On the subject of Iraq All in all, do you think the situation in Iraq is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? Current 8/1-2/ Getting better Getting worse About the same 38 3 Don t know Some people say we should have a third major political party in this country, in addition to the Democrats and Republicans. Do you agree or disagree? Current 6/20-21/07 4/7-16/ /15-19/03 8/27-9/8/98 7/25-28/96 54 Agree Disagree Don't know Trend results based on total adults trends from Pew Research Center, based on total adults.

10 Do you think the current method of nominating presidential candidates gives too much power to the very first states to vote, or not? Current 5/10-13/ Yes No Don't know How much would you say you know about Michael Bloomberg and what he stands for... (READ) Current 6/20-21/07 4 A lot 6 20 Some Only a little, OR Nothing at all? 32 1 Don t know From what you know about how Michael Bloomberg has handled his job as mayor of New York City, do you think he would make a good president, or not? Current 6/20-21/07 24 Yes, would No, would not Don't know From what you know about Michael Bloomberg s political views, do you think of him as liberal, moderate, or conservative? Current 6/20-21/07 12 Liberal Moderate Conservative Don't know Trend results from a CBS News/New York Times poll, based on total adults.

11 Suppose Michael Bloomberg spends between 500 million and one billion dollars of his own money to finance an independent candidacy for president. Would such use of his personal fortune make you more likely or less likely to vote for him or would it not make much difference either way? Current 6/20-21/07 10 Make more likely Make less likely Wouldn t make much difference 70 3 Don't know D2. Regardless of how you might have voted in recent elections, in politics TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent? D2a. As of TODAY do you LEAN more toward the Republican Party or the Democratic Party? 31 Republican 33 Democrat 29 Independent 3 No party/not interested in politics (VOL.) 1 Other party (VOL.) 3 Don't know Total Republican/Lean Republican 46 Total Democrat/Lean Democratic END OF INTERVIEW. THANK RESPONDENT: That completes the interview. Thank you very much for your cooperation.

12 12 METHODOLOGY This poll was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International from October 31 to November 1. Telephone interviews were conducted with 1,002 registered voters. Registered voters were screened from a random-digit-dial (RDD) telephone sample of national adults. Registration status is self-reported. 77 percent of adults in the sample reported being registered. Results are weighted so that the sample demographics match Census Current Population Survey parameters for gender, age, education, race, region, and population density. The overall margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4 percentage points for results based on 1,002 registered voters. Results based on smaller subgroups are subject to larger margins of sampling error. SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS: 337 Republicans (plus or minus 7) 315 Democrats (plus or minus 7) 288 Independents (plus or minus 8) 430 Republicans/Republican leaners (plus or minus 6) 433 Democrats/Democratic leaners (plus or minus 6) 93 Republican leaners (plus or minus 13) 118 Democratic leaners (plus or minus 12) 501 Red states (plus or minus 6) (voted Bush in 2004) 501 Blue states (plus or minus 6) (voted Kerry in 2004) In addition to sampling error, the practical difficulties of conducting surveys can also introduce error or bias to poll results.

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