Public Opinion Survey Residents of Ukraine
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- Loreen Gregory
- 7 years ago
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1 Public Opinion Survey Residents of Ukraine March 14 26, 2014 International Republican Institute
2 Detailed Methodology The survey was conducted by the public opinion and market research company Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The field work was carried out by Rating Group Ukraine. Data was collected throughout Ukraine (including Crimea) March 14 26, 2014, through face-to-face interviews at respondents home. The sample consisted of 1,200 permanent residents of Ukraine older than the age of 18 and eligible to vote. It is representative of the general population by age, gender, education, region and size of the settlement. Multistage probability sampling method was used with the random route and next birthday respondent s selection procedures. Stage one: 27 official administrative regions of Ukraine were defined (25 regions of Ukraine, Kyiv and Sevastopol). All regions of Ukraine were surveyed. Stage two: selection of the settlements - towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to the size: City more than one million residents City 500, ,000 residents City 100, ,000 residents City 50,000-99,000 residents City to 50,000 residents Village Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was proportional to the share of population living in a particular type of the settlement in each region. Stage three: primary sampling units were described. The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent. Response rate was 63 percent. Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. The survey was funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development. 2
3 International Republican Institute Russian-Speaking Citizens Not Under Pressure or Threat
4 Do you feel that Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine are under pressure or threat because of their language? 7% 14% Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no 7 Don't know/refused to answer 4
5 Do you feel that Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine are under pressure or threat because of their language? By ethnicity Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer Ethnic Ukrainian 1 76% Ethnic Russian 1 17% 17% 49% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 5
6 Do you feel that Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine are under pressure or threat because of their language? Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer West 7% 88% Center 1 8 South East 1 16% 58% 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 6
7 Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army to protect Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine? 6% 7% 6% 9% Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no 7 Don't know/refused to answer 7
8 Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army to protect Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine? Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer West 9 Center 9 South 16% 1 16% 5 6% East % 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 8
9 Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army to protect Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine? By ethnicity Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer Ethnic Ukrainian 4% 9% 80% 4% Ethnic Russian 2 20% % 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 9
10 International Republican Institute Majority Want Closer Ties to Europe
11 If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, should it be with? European Union Other Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Don't know/refused to answer March % 6% 14% February % 9% 14% September % 16% May % 37% 18% August % 20% May % 4 17% March % 4 4% 17% November % 1 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 11
12 If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, should it be with? European Union Other Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Don't know/refused to answer West 90% Center 70% 9% 1 10% South 29% 37% 10% 24% East 20% 59% 18% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 12
13 If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining the European Union, how would you vote? 8% 1 28% 5 Would vote for Ukraine to join the EU Would vote against Ukraine joining the EU Would not vote Don't know/refused to answer 13
14 If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining the European Union, how would you vote? Would vote for Ukraine to join the EU Would not vote Would vote against Ukraine joining the EU Don't know/refused to answer West 90% 4% 4% Center 7 16% 1 South 29% 37% 2 1 East 2 5 7% 16% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 14
15 If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, how would you vote? 6% 1 28% Would vote for Ukraine to join the Customs Union Would vote against Ukraine joining the Customs Union Would not vote 5 Don't know/refused to answer 15
16 If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, how would you vote? Would vote for Ukraine to join the Customs Union Would not vote Would vote against Ukraine joining the Customs Union Don't know/refused to answer West 6% 77% 9% 8% Center 10% 74% 1 South East 6 19% 17% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 16
17 Do you think that the authorities of Ukraine should sign the Association Agreement with the European Union as soon as possible? Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer March % % February % 16% 2 14% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 17
18 Do you think that the authorities of Ukraine should sign the Association Agreement with the European Union as soon as possible? Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer West 7 18% Center 4 30% 9% 6% 1 South East 1 9% 19% 4 17% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 18
19 If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining NATO, how would you vote? 1 9% 34% Would vote for Ukraine to join NATO Would vote against Ukraine joining NATO Would not vote 44% Don't know/refused to answer 19
20 If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining NATO, how would you vote? Would vote for Ukraine to join NATO Would not vote Would vote against Ukraine joining NATO Don't know/refused to answer West 64% 17% 14% Center 47% 3 4% 16% South % 1 East 14% 67% 8% 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 20
21 International Republican Institute Majority Consider Russia s Actions an Invasion
22 In your opinion, a referendum in Crimea on joining Russia is? 8% 2 A legitimate right of the residents of Crimea to express their opinion about the future of Crimea An attempt to break Ukraine into several parts and threat to its independence Other 68% Don't know/refused to answer 22
23 In your opinion, a referendum in Crimea on joining Russia is? A legitimate right of the residents of Crimea to express their opinion about the future of Crimea An attempt to break Ukraine into several parts and threat to its independence Other Don't know/refused to answer West 94% Center 7% 87% South 4 48% 10% East 4 40% 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 23
24 In your opinion, what should the status of Crimea should be? 8% 9% Autonomous republic within Ukraine Crimean-Tatar autonomous republic within Ukraine Should become part of Russia Become an oblast of Ukraine 1 50% Should become an independent state Should become part of Turkey Other 1 Don't know/refused to answer 24
25 In your opinion, what the status of Crimea should be? Autonomous republic within Ukraine Should become part of Russia Should become an independent state Other Crimean-Tatar autonomous republic within Ukraine Become an oblast of Ukraine Should become part of Turkey Don't know/refused to answer West 6 14% 16% 6% Center 66% 1 8% 6% South % 4% 6% East 3 16% 20% 1 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 25
26 How do you evaluate Russia s actions in Crimea? In your opinion, are they aimed at...? Invasion and occupation of independent Ukraine 54% Threat to new Ukrainian political leaders 17% Protection of Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine 1 Response to the new Crimea leaders asking for help Protection of Russian military base in Sevastopol 4% Other Don't know/refused to answer 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 26
27 How do you evaluate Russia s actions in Crimea? In your opinion, are they aimed at...? Western Ukraine Invasion and occupation of independent Ukraine 74% Threat to new Ukrainian political leaders 20% Protection of Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine Response to the new Crimea leaders asking for help Protection of Russian military base in Sevastopol Other Don't know/refused to answer 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 27
28 How do you evaluate Russia s actions in Crimea? In your opinion, are they aimed at...? Central Ukraine Invasion and occupation of independent Ukraine 7 Threat to new Ukrainian political leaders 16% Response to the new Crimea leaders asking for help Protection of Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine Protection of Russian military base in Sevastopol Other 0% Don't know/refused to answer 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 28
29 How do you evaluate Russia s actions in Crimea? In your opinion, are they aimed at...? Southern Ukraine Invasion and occupation of independent Ukraine 37% Protection of Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine 3 Threat to new Ukrainian political leaders 1 Response to the new Crimea leaders asking for help 7% Protection of Russian military base in Sevastopol Other Don't know/refused to answer 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 29
30 How do you evaluate Russia s actions in Crimea? In your opinion, are they aimed at...? Eastern Ukraine Invasion and occupation of independent Ukraine 30% Protection of Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine 2 Threat to new Ukrainian political leaders 17% Response to the new Crimea leaders asking for help 10% Protection of Russian military base in Sevastopol 8% Other Don't know/refused to answer 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 30
31 What do you think should be done with Ukraine-Russia agreement about the Russian Naval base in Sevastopol? Should this agreement? Be terminated immediately and Russian military should leave Crimea 46% Should be re-negotiated and Ukraine should have more say in Russia's military actions and movements in Crimea 18% Nothing has to be changed 1 Ukrainian troops should leave Crimea, only Russian troops should remain 8% Other Don't know/refused to answer 14% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 31
32 What do you think should be done with Ukraine-Russia agreement about the Russian Naval base in Sevastopol? Should this agreement? Western Ukraine Be terminated immediately and Russian military should leave Crimea 69% Should be re-negotiated and Ukraine should have more say in Russia's military actions and movements in Crimea 1 Nothing has to be changed Ukrainian troops should leave Crimea, only Russian troops should remain Other Don't know/refused to answer 1 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 32
33 What do you think should be done with Ukraine-Russia agreement about the Russian Naval base in Sevastopol? Should this agreement? Central Ukraine Be terminated immediately and Russian military should leave Crimea 6 Should be re-negotiated and Ukraine should have more say in Russia's military actions and movements in Crimea 17% Nothing has to be changed 4% Ukrainian troops should leave Crimea, only Russian troops should remain Other Don't know/refused to answer 1 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 33
34 What do you think should be done with Ukraine-Russia agreement about the Russian Naval base in Sevastopol? Should this agreement? Southern Ukraine Be terminated immediately and Russian military should leave Crimea 3 Nothing has to be changed 2 Should be re-negotiated and Ukraine should have more say in Russia's military actions and movements in Crimea 20% Ukrainian troops should leave Crimea, only Russian troops should remain 1 Other Don't know/refused to answer 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 34
35 What do you think should be done with Ukraine-Russia agreement about the Russian Naval base in Sevastopol? Should this agreement? Eastern Ukraine Should be re-negotiated and Ukraine should have more say in Russia's military actions and movements in Crimea 2 Be terminated immediately and Russian military should leave Crimea 2 Nothing has to be changed 17% Ukrainian troops should leave Crimea, only Russian troops should remain 16% Other Don't know/refused to answer 20% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 35
36 In your opinion, should Ukraine? Remain a unitary country 14% 10% Remain a unitary country, but without Crimea Become a federal country 10% Be divided into several countries Other 64% Difficult to answer/no answer 36
37 In your opinion, should Ukraine? Remain a unitary country Become a federal country Other Remain a unitary country, but without Crimea Be divided into several countries Difficult to answer/no answer West 86% 8% Center 78% 7% 6% 8% South 44% 2 2 6% East 4 8% 26% 4% 16% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 37
38 International Republican Institute Elections
39 Do you think that early presidential and parliamentary elections should be carried out in the near future? Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer March % % February % 50% 7% < September % 3 4 9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 39
40 Do you think that early presidential and parliamentary elections should be carried out in the near future? Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer West 40% 46% 6% 4% 4% Center 36% 39% 1 6% 8% South 14% 26% 17% 18% 2 East 17% 30% 1 20% 2 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 40
41 International Republican Institute Presidential Election
42 Are you going to vote in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer Ukraine 48% 3 4% 1 Ukraine without Crimea 5 3 4% 8% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 42
43 Are you going to vote in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer West 78% 19% Center 46% 46% South 26% 2 9% 38% East 4 29% 1 1 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 43
44 Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? Petro Poroshenko 2 Yuliya Tymoshenko Vitaliy Klychko 1 10% Serhiy Tihipko 6% Anatoliy Hrytsenko Petro Symonenko Oleh Tyahnybok Mykhaylo Dobkin Other 6% Against all 8% I would not vote Difficult to answer/don t know 14% 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 44
45 Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? Respondents who are going to vote in presidential election, N=946 Petro Poroshenko 27% Yuliya Tymoshenko Vitaliy Klychko 14% 1 Serhiy Tihipko 7% Anatoliy Hrytsenko Petro Symonenko Oleh Tyahnybok Mykhaylo Dobkin 4% 4% Other Against all 7% 7% Difficult to answer/don t know 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 45
46 Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? Western Ukraine Petro Poroshenko 34% Vitaliy Klychko 2 Yuliya Tymoshenko 17% Anatoliy Hrytsenko Oleh Tyahnybok 4% 6% Serhiy Tihipko Petro Symonenko Dmytro Yarosh Other I would not vote Difficult to answer/don t know 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 46
47 Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? Central Ukraine Petro Poroshenko 34% Yuliya Tymoshenko 16% Vitaliy Klychko 1 Serhiy Tihipko Anatoliy Hrytsenko Oleh Tyahnybok Petro Symonenko Dmytro Yarosh Other Against all I would not vote 4% 4% 4% 6% 6% Difficult to answer/don t know 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 47
48 Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? Southern Ukraine Yuliya Tymoshenko Petro Poroshenko Serhiy Tihipko Vitaliy Klychko Petro Symonenko Mykhaylo Dobkin Nataliya Korolevska Other Against all 9% 8% 10% I would not vote 44% Difficult to answer/don t know 1 0% 20% 40% 60% 48
49 Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? Eastern Ukraine Serhiy Tihipko 1 Mykhaylo Dobkin Petro Poroshenko Petro Symonenko 7% 7% 8% Yuliya Tymoshenko Vitaliy Klychko Anatoliy Hrytsenko Oleh Tyahnybok Nataliya Korolevska 4% Other 7% Against all I would not vote 1 14% Difficult to answer/don t know 2 0% 10% 20% 30% 49
50 Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? Ukraine without Crimea Petro Poroshenko 2 Yuliya Tymoshenko Vitaliy Klychko 1 1 Serhiy Tihipko 6% Anatoliy Hrytsenko Petro Symonenko Oleh Tyahnybok Mykhaylo Dobkin Other 6% Against all 8% I would not vote 10% Difficult to answer/don t know 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 50
51 Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? Respondents, in parliamentary elections intending to vote for Batkivshchyna, N=187 Yuliya Tymoshenko 64% Petro Poroshenko 2 Anatoliy Hrytsenko 4% Vitaliy Klychko Oleh Tyahnybok Other 4% Difficult to answer/don t know 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 51
52 Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? Respondents, in parliamentary elections intending to vote for Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform, N=147 Vitaliy Klychko 7 Petro Poroshenko 19% Anatoliy Hrytsenko Serhiy Tihipko Yuliya Tymoshenko Other Difficult to answer/don t know 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 52
53 Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? Respondents, in parliamentary elections intending to vote for Solidarnist, N=134 Petro Poroshenko 9 Anatoliy Hrytsenko Petro Symonenko Yuliya Tymoshenko Other Difficult to answer/don t know 0% 50% 100% 53
54 Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? Respondents, in parliamentary elections intending to vote for Party of Regions, N=73 Serhiy Tihipko 5 Mykhaylo Dobkin 14% Petro Symonenko Nataliya Korolevska Petro Poroshenko Other 7% Against all I would not vote Difficult to answer/don t know 14% 0% 20% 40% 60% 54
55 Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? Respondents, in parliamentary elections intending to vote for Svoboda, N=56 Oleh Tyahnybok 4 Petro Poroshenko 30% Vitaliy Klychko 8% Anatoliy Hrytsenko 6% Yuliya Tymoshenko 4% Dmytro Yarosh Difficult to answer/don t know 7% 0% 20% 40% 60% 55
56 Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? Respondents having no opinion for which party to vote in parliamentary elections, N=248 Petro Poroshenko Serhiy Tihipko Mykhaylo Dobkin Anatoliy Hrytsenko Yuliya Tymoshenko Vitaliy Klychko Petro Symonenko Nataliya Korolevska Other 7% 7% Against all 19% I would not vote 4% Difficult to answer/don t know 46% 0% 20% 40% 60% 56
57 If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for? Vitaliy Klychko Yuliya Tymoshenko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/don t know Ukraine 2 19% % Ukraine without Crimea 26% 20% % 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 57
58 If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for? Vitaliy Klychko Yuliya Tymoshenko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/don t know West 50% 29% 9% 8% Center 3 29% 26% 10% South % 7% East 1 7% 5 17% 1 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 58
59 If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for? Vitaliy Klychko Petro Poroshenko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/don t know Ukraine 17% % 9% Ukraine without Crimea 18% 36% 26% 1 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 59
60 If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for? Vitaliy Klychko Petro Poroshenko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/don t know West 34% 5 4% 7% Center 20% 54% 1 9% South 1 29% 4 6% East 9% 1 49% 16% 1 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 60
61 If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for? Vitaliy Klychko Serhiy Tihipko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/don t know Ukraine 37% Ukraine without Crimea 39% 1 26% 1 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 61
62 If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for? Vitaliy Klychko Serhiy Tihipko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/don t know West 74% 10% 10% Center 50% 8% 28% 1 South 9% 9% 28% 4 9% East 1 24% 3 17% 1 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 62
63 If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for? Petro Poroshenko Yuliya Tymoshenko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/don t know Ukraine 36% % Ukraine without Crimea 38% 16% 26% 1 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 63
64 If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for? Petro Poroshenko Yuliya Tymoshenko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/don t know West 6 2 6% 7% Center % South % 4 East 1 6% 49% 16% 14% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 64
65 If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for? Yuliya Tymoshenko Serhiy Tihipko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/don t know Ukraine 30% 1 30% 1 1 Ukraine without Crimea % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 65
66 If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for? Yuliya Tymoshenko Serhiy Tihipko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/don t know West 58% 20% 1 Center 4 9% 36% 1 South 1 9% 27% 44% 8% East 10% 2 34% 16% 1 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 66
67 If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for? Petro Poroshenko Serhiy Tihipko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/don t know Ukraine 46% 10% 19% 1 10% Ukraine without Crimea 48% 1 20% 1 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 67
68 If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for? Petro Poroshenko Serhiy Tihipko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/don t know West 78% 8% 10% Center 69% 7% 14% 7% South 16% 7% 27% 44% 6% East 16% 2 29% 17% 16% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 68
69 In your opinion, will the next presidential election be? Absolutely free and fair Rather free and fair Rather not free and fair Absolutely not free and fair Don't know/refused to answer March % 34% 27% 1 17% February % 20% % September % 39% 26% 16% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 69
70 In your opinion, will the next presidential election be? Absolutely free and fair Rather free and fair Rather not free and fair Absolutely not free and fair Don't know/refused to answer West % 4% 16% Center 1 48% 2 4% 1 South 20% 37% 2 18% East 14% 34% 30% 2 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 70
71 International Republican Institute Parliamentary Elections
72 If early parliamentary elections were announced today, would you vote in such elections? Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer March % February % 10% 6% September % 34% 7% 20% May % 8% 19% 4% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 72
73 If early parliamentary elections were announced today, would you vote in such elections? Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer Ukraine % Ukraine without Crimea 4 34% 4% 9% 8% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 73
74 If early parliamentary elections were announced today, would you vote in such elections? Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer West 67% 26% Center 40% 48% 4% South 27% 24% 7% 36% 6% East 36% 28% 6% 1 18% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 74
75 If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party would you vote for? Batkivshchyna (Y. Tymoshenko) Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (V.Klychko) Solidarnist (P.Poroshenko) % Party of Regions Svoboda (O.Tyahnybok) Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (O.Lyashko) Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko) 6% 4% 4% Pravyi Sector (D.Yarosh) Other I would not vote 16% Don't know/refused to answer 2 0% 10% 20% 30% 75
76 If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party would you vote for? Respondents who are going to vote in parliamentary elections, N=898 Batkivshchyna (Y. Tymoshenko) 20% Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (V.Klychko) Solidarnist (P.Poroshenko) 14% 16% Party of Regions Svoboda (O.Tyahnybok) Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (O.Lyashko) Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko) 7% 6% 4% Pravyi Sector (D.Yarosh) Other 6% Don't know/refused to answer 20% 0% 10% 20% 30% 76
77 If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party would you vote for? Western Ukraine Batkivshchyna (Y. Tymoshenko) Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (V.Klychko) Solidarnist (P.Poroshenko) 18% 24% 24% Svoboda (O.Tyahnybok) 9% Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (O.Lyashko) 7% Pravyi Sector (D.Yarosh) Party of Regions Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko) Other I would not vote Don't know/refused to answer 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 77
78 If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party would you vote for? Central Ukraine Batkivshchyna (Y. Tymoshenko) 2 Solidarnist (P.Poroshenko) Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (V.Klychko) Svoboda (O.Tyahnybok) 8% 17% 16% Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (O.Lyashko) 6% Party of Regions Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko) Pravyi Sector (D.Yarosh) Other I would not vote 6% Don't know/refused to answer 1 0% 10% 1 20% 2 78
79 If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party would you vote for? Southern Ukraine Batkivshchyna (Y. Tymoshenko) 10% Solidarnist (P.Poroshenko) Party of Regions Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko) Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (V.Klychko) Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (O.Lyashko) Ukraine Forward! (N.Korolevska) Nasha Ukrayina (V.Yushchenko) Other 4% I would not vote 44% Don't know/refused to answer 2 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 79
80 If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party would you vote for? Eastern Ukraine Party of Regions 1 Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko) 8% Batkivshchyna (Y. Tymoshenko) Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (V.Klychko) Solidarnist (P.Poroshenko) 4% Svoboda (O.Tyahnybok) Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (O.Lyashko) Pravyi Sector (D.Yarosh) Ukraine Forward! (N.Korolevska) Other 7% I would not vote 18% Don't know/refused to answer 34% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 80
81 If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party would you vote for? Ukraine without Crimea Batkivshchyna (Y. Tymoshenko) 17% Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (V.Klychko) Solidarnist (P.Poroshenko) 1 1 Party of Regions Svoboda (O.Tyahnybok) Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (O.Lyashko) Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko) 6% 4% 4% Pravyi Sector (D.Yarosh) Other I would not vote 1 Don't know/refused to answer 2 0% 10% 1 20% 2 81
82 In your opinion, will the next parliamentary elections be? Absolutely free and fair Rather free and fair Rather not free and fair Absolutely not free and fair Don't know/refused to answer March % 3 26% 16% 18% February % 20% 36% 2 18% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 82
83 In your opinion, will the next parliamentary elections be? Absolutely free and fair Rather free and fair Rather not free and fair Absolutely not free and fair Don't know/refused to answer West 10% 49% 17% 4% 20% Center 1 48% 20% 6% 1 South 19% 37% 24% 18% East 14% % 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 83
84 International Republican Institute Mood of Ukraine
85 Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction? 80% Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/refused to answer 70% 60% % 69% 67% 64% 50% 58% 5 40% 30% 20% 10% 16% % 20% 14% 24% 18% 16% 18% % 17% 30% 18% 0% November 2011 March 2012 May 2012 August 2012 May 2013 September 2013 February 2014 March
86 Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction? Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/refused to answer West 4 36% 2 Center 54% 29% 18% South 1 77% 10% East 8% 7 20% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 86
87 Over the last 12 months, the financial situation of your household has? Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know/refused to answer March % 29% 18% February % 44% 3 14% September % 4 30% 17% May % 46% 30% 14% August % 37% 27% 1 May % 4 30% 1 March % 39% 34% 18% November % 37% 36% 18% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 87
88 Over the last 12 months, the financial situation of your household has? Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know/refused to answer West 56% 24% 10% 4% < Center 54% 29% 1 South 3 27% 29% 7% < East 39% 3 24% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 88
89 In the next 12 months, do you expect the economic situation in Ukraine will? Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot Don't know/refused to answer March % 26% 3 1 February % 20% 3 28% 1 September % 29% 17% 1 < May % 38% 29% 1 1 August % 3 24% 1 16% May % 1 14% March % November % 30% 3 17% 1 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 89
90 In the next 12 months, do you expect the economic situation in Ukraine will? Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot Don't know/refused to answer West % 18% 1 Center 2 20% 3 18% 9% South 4% 16% 18% 59% East 4% 8% 24% 49% 14% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 90
91 Are you ready to live through some economic difficulties now (e.g., higher tariffs and prices) if it makes your life better in long term? 10% 10% 30% 29% Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no 2 Don't know/refused to answer 91
92 Are you ready to live through some economic difficulties now (e.g., higher tariffs and prices) if it makes your life better in long term? Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer West 2 44% % Center 10% 38% 2 16% 1 South 17% 24% 44% 9% East % 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 92
93 International Republican Institute Views on Foreign Countries
94 How would you evaluate your attitude towards? Warm Neutral Cold Don't know/refused to answer Poland 50% 34% 1 European Union 46% 3 2 Canada 40% 40% 16% 4% United States 37% 38% 24% Russia % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 94
95 How would you evaluate your attitude towards? Western Ukraine Warm Neutral Cold Don't know/refused to answer European Union 8 17% Poland 79% 19% Canada 7 2 United States 66% 30% Russia 1 18% 68% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 95
96 How would you evaluate your attitude towards? Central Ukraine Warm Neutral Cold Don't know/refused to answer Poland 70% 28% European Union 6 30% 7% Canada 5 40% United States 5 39% 7% Russia 10% 20% 68% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 96
97 How would you evaluate your attitude towards? Southern Ukraine Warm Neutral Cold Don't know/refused to answer Russia 46% 24% 28% Poland European Union 2 39% 39% United States 1 46% 38% Canada % 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 97
98 How would you evaluate your attitude towards? Eastern Ukraine Warm Neutral Cold Don't know/refused to answer Russia 59% 2 1 Poland 24% 48% 27% Canada 20% 4 30% European Union 18% 38% 4 United States 1 38% 49% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 98
99 International Republican Institute Views on the EuroMaidan Protests
100 Did you support the EuroMaidan protests in Ukraine? Strongly supported Rather supported Rather didn't support Strongly didn't support Don't know/refused to answer March % 1 27% February % 3 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 100
101 Did you support the EuroMaidan protests in Ukraine? Strongly supported Rather supported Rather didn't support Strongly didn't support Don't know/refused to answer West 66% 2 4% Center 4 39% 7% 7% South % 4% East 7% 17% 18% 50% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 101
102 How have you perceived these protests? This is a revolution 2 This is a movement for rapprochement with Europe 2 This is a political coup d etat 17% This is a conflict of Ukrainian elites 16% It's a mess and chaos 14% Other Don't know/refused to answer 4% 0% 10% 1 20% 2 30% 102
103 How have you perceived these protests? Western Ukraine This is a revolution 44% This is a movement for rapprochement with Europe 27% This is a political coup d etat 1 This is a conflict of Ukrainian elites 10% It's a mess and chaos Other Don't know/refused to answer 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 103
104 How have you perceived these protests? Central Ukraine This is a movement for rapprochement with Europe 34% This is a revolution 28% This is a conflict of Ukrainian elites 1 This is a political coup d etat 9% It's a mess and chaos 6% Other Don't know/refused to answer 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 104
105 How have you perceived these protests? Southern Ukraine It's a mess and chaos 30% This is a political coup d etat 27% This is a revolution 17% This is a movement for rapprochement with Europe 1 This is a conflict of Ukrainian elites 1 Other Don't know/refused to answer 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 105
106 How have you perceived these protests? Eastern Ukraine This is a political coup d etat 26% This is a conflict of Ukrainian elites 26% It's a mess and chaos 19% This is a revolution 14% This is a movement for rapprochement with Europe 1 Other Don't know/refused to answer 0% 10% 1 20% 2 30% 106
107 In your opinion, have the protests on the Maidan achieved their goal? 1 9% Definitely yes 19% 36% Rather yes Rather no Definitely no 2 Don't know/refused to answer 107
108 In your opinion, have the protests on the Maidan achieved their goal? Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/refused to answer West 16% Center 10% 4 27% 7% 1 South 17% 24% 40% 14% East 26% 24% 27% 18% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 108
109 In your opinion, the changes which were brought by the protests on the Maidan will improve or worsen the situation in Ukraine? 8% 1 26% Improve a lot Improve somewhat 3 Stay the same 1 1 Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot Difficult to answer/no answer 109
110 In your opinion, the changes which were brought by the protests on the Maidan will improve or worsen the situation in Ukraine? Improve a lot Stay the same Worsen a lot Improve somewhat Worsen somewhat Don't know/refused to answer West 28% 38% 17% 4% 10% Center 1 47% 10% 16% 9% 6% South 18% 8% 1 5 East 16% 18% 10% 4 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110
111 In your opinion, the changes which were brought by the protests on the Maidan will improve or worsen the situation for you personally? 10% 7% % Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot 27% Difficult to answer/no answer 111
112 In your opinion, the changes which were brought by the protests on the Maidan will improve or worsen the situation for you personally? Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot Don't know/refused to answer West Center 6% 3 34% 14% 6% 8% South 6% % 34% 14% East 14% % 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 112
113 From what sources of information have you received information about EuroMaidan events and current political situation in Ukraine? (several answers possible) Ukrainian TV 9 Internet Relatives/Friends Newspapers Russian TV Radio 4 40% 3 30% 2 Colleagues at work Social networks (Facebook, Vkontakte, Odnoklasniki) 1 1 Magazines Billboards/Stands in the streets Leaflets/Other printed materials Other Don't know/refused to answer 0% 50% 100% 113
114 From what sources of information have you received information about EuroMaidan events and current political situation in Ukraine? Western Ukraine (several answers possible) Ukrainian TV 96% Newspapers 4 Internet 4 Radio 3 Relatives/Friends 3 Russian TV 14% Social networks (Facebook, Vkontakte, Odnoklasniki) 10% Colleagues at work 9% Magazines Billboards/Stands in the streets Don't know/refused to answer 0% 50% 100% 114
115 From what sources of information have you received information about EuroMaidan events and current political situation in Ukraine? Central Ukraine (several answers possible) Ukrainian TV 9 Relatives/Friends 49% Newspapers Internet Radio 38% 36% 34% Colleagues at work Russian TV Social networks (Facebook, Vkontakte, Odnoklasniki) 1 16% 20% Magazines Billboards/Stands in the streets Leaflets/Other printed materials Meetings with politicians Other 4% 0% 50% 100% 115
116 From what sources of information have you received information about EuroMaidan events and current political situation in Ukraine? Southern Ukraine (several answers possible) Ukrainian TV 8 Russian TV 47% Internet 46% Relatives/Friends 30% Newspapers 29% Social networks (Facebook, Vkontakte, Odnoklasniki) 2 Radio 17% Colleagues at work 14% Magazines Billboards/Stands in the streets 0% 50% 100% 116
117 From what sources of information have you received information about EuroMaidan events and current political situation in Ukraine? Eastern Ukraine (several answers possible) Ukrainian TV 90% Russian TV 44% Relatives/Friends 4 Internet 4 Newspapers 2 Colleagues at work 1 Radio 1 Social networks (Facebook, Vkontakte, Odnoklasniki) 10% Magazines Don't know/refused to answer 0% 50% 100% 117
118 International Republican Institute Priorities and Views on the New Government
119 In your opinion, reforms in which three area should be the priority for the Cabinet of Ministers under Prime Minister Yatsenyuk? Anticorruption/Public procurement Defense/Military Pension/Social benefits Industrial production Public administration/civil service Healthcare Law-enforcement Judiciary Agriculture/Land Lustration Decentralization/Local self-governance Elections/Referendum Deregulation/Support of entrepreneurship Taxes Education/Science Housing/Communal economy Energy Infrastructure/Roads/Etc. Youth Environment Sport Other Don't know/refused to answer 7% 6% 4% 4% 6% 24% 24% % 17% 16% 1 14% 1 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 119
120 In your opinion, reforms in which three area should be the priority for the Cabinet of Ministers under Prime Minister Yatsenyuk? Western Ukraine Anticorruption/Public procurement Defense/Military Public administration/civil service Law-enforcement Lustration Judiciary Pension/Social benefits Industrial development Healthcare Decentralization/Local self-governance Agriculture/Land Elections/Referendum Education/Science Taxes Deregulation/Support of entrepreneurship Infrastructure/Roads/Etc. Youth Energy Housing/Communal economy Environment Don't know/refused to answer % % 8% 8% 7% 4% 28% 36% 57% 0% 20% 40% 60% 120
121 In your opinion, reforms in which three area should be the priority for the Cabinet of Ministers under Prime Minister Yatsenyuk? Central Ukraine Anticorruption/Public procurement Defense/Military Pension/Social benefits Law-enforcement Healthcare Agriculture/Land Industrial development Judiciary Public administration/civil service Lustration Decentralization/Local self-governance Energy Elections/Referendum Deregulation/Support of entrepreneurship Taxes Education/Science Infrastructure/Roads/Etc. Youth Housing/Communal economy Environment Other Don't know/refused to answer 8% 6% 4% % 19% 18% 17% 26% 3 5 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 121
122 In your opinion, reforms in which three area should be the priority for the Cabinet of Ministers under Prime Minister Yatsenyuk? Southern Ukraine Anticorruption/Public procurement Industrial development Public administration/civil service Pension/Social benefits Defense/Military Healthcare Decentralization/Local self-governance Agriculture/Land Deregulation/Support of entrepreneurship Judiciary Elections/Referendum Law-enforcement Housing/Communal economy EducationScience Lustration Taxes Energy Infrastructure/Roads/Etc. Youth Sport Other Don't know/refused to answer 17% 17% 16% 16% 1 14% 1 10% 10% 8% 8% 6% 4% 17% 29% 40% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 122
123 In your opinion, reforms in which three area should be the priority for the Cabinet of Ministers under Prime Minister Yatsenyuk? Anticorruption/Public procurement Pension/Social benefits Industrial development Healthcare Public administration/civil service Decentralization and Local self-governance Judiciary Law-enforcement Agriculture/Land Housing/Communal economy Defense/Military Elections/Referendum Taxes Energy Deregulation/Support of entrepreneurship Education/Science Environment Infrastructure/Roads/Etc. Youth Sport Lustration Other Don't know/refused to answer Eastern Ukraine 26% % 14% 14% 1 10% 8% 7% 6% 4% 8% 8% 3 47% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 123
124 Do you approve or disapprove of the job acting President of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov is doing? 1 9% Strongly approve 27% 3 Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove 20% Don't know/refused to answer 124
125 Do you approve or disapprove of the job acting President of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov is doing? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know/refused to answer West 20% 5 16% 8% Center % 6% 1 South 16% 18% 54% 9% East % 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 125
126 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine under Prime Minister Yatsenyuk is doing? 9% 1 Strongly approve 27% Somewhat approve 3 Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove 17% Don't know/refused to answer 126
127 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine under Prime Minister Yatsenyuk is doing? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know/refused to answer West 27% 5 10% 7% Center % 8% 9% South 19% 17% 5 6% East 1 24% 47% 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 127
128 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Parliament of Ukraine is doing? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know/refused to answer March % 3 24% 26% 1 February % 50% 7% < September % 3 4 9% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 128
129 Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Parliament of Ukraine is doing? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know/refused to answer West % 6% 10% Center 8% 46% 2 9% 14% South 16% 2 48% 8% East 1 28% 4 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 129
130 International Republican Institute Demographics
131 OCCUPATION EDUCATION ETHNICITY AGE GENDER Demographics Male Female years years 50 years and older Ukrainian Russian Other Secondary or lower Vocational Higher Blue collar Farmer White collar Higher or medium executive Retired (not working) Student Housewife Unemployed Other % 29% 40% % 30% 6% 7% 10% 5 8 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 131
132 REGIONS SETTLEMENT TYPE SITUATION OF FAMILY RELIGION Demographics Orthodox Greek Catholic Other Atheist Believe in God but don't belong to any religion Bad Average Good No answer City with more than 1 million City with thousand City with thousand City with thousand Up to 50 thousand Rural area West Center South East 7% 1 1 8% 18% 8% % 19% 29% 4 57% 78% 0% 50% 100% 132
133 Demographics Oblasts in the West: Chernivetska, Ivano-Frankivska, Khmelnytska, Lvivska Rivnenska, Ternopilska, Transcarpathian, Volynska Oblasts in the Center: Cherkaska, Chernihivska, Kirovogradska, Kyivska, Poltavska, Sumska, Vinnytska, Zhytomyrska, and the city of Kyiv Oblasts in the South: Autonomous Region of Crimea, Khersonska, Mykolaivska, Odeska, Sevastopol, Zaporizka Oblasts in the East: Dnipropetrovska, Donetska, Kharkivska, Luhanska 133
134 What can you say about the financial status of your family? Need to save money for food Enough money for food but it is necessary to save or borrow money for buying clothes and shoes Enough money for food and necessary clothes and shoes. It is necessary to save or borrow money for such purchases as a good suit, a mobile phone or a vacuum cleaner Enough money for food, buying clothes, shoes and other purchases. It is necessary to save or borrow money for purchasing more expensive things (such as a laundry machine or a refrigerator) Enough money for food, buying clothes, shoes and expensive purchases. It is necessary to save or borrow money for purchases like a car or an apartment I can buy anything at any time March % 44% 1 February % 26% 4 18% September % 26% 4 20% < May % 30% 4 20% < August % 4 14% May % 1 < March % 17% Nov % 4 14% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 134
135 International Republican Institute (202)
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