Earthquake warnings in Japan

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1 Earthquake warnings in Japan Building the system, and warnings for the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake Richard Allen Hiroo Kanamori, Jim Mori, Masumi Yamada Earthquake early warning summit April 4, 2011, UC Berkeley

2 The path to earthquake early warning in Japan January 1995: Kobe earthquake 6000 people killed 1800 seismic stations installed Hi-Net K-Net KiK-Net F-Net February 2004: JMA begins testing their system August 2005: Successful warning: Sendai, Miyagi M7.2 earthquake 140 schools/agencies warnings up to 16 sec October 2007: Nationwide public warning system launched Sendai EEW stations 200: JMA 800: Hi-net (NIED)

3 2008: a bumpy start Two large earthquakes June 14, 2008 M7.2 warnings of 4+ sec at >40 km Sendai: at 100 km trains stopped with 5 sec warning July 24, 2008 M6.8 warning 11 sec after shaking at the epicenter at 130 km: 3-5 sec warning One false alarm July 14, 2008 single seismometer trigger trains and metro stopped in Tokyo no public warning (requires 2 detections) Tokyo Inevitable borderline cases Intensity close to the 5- cut-of Prediction did not reach 5- or only reached 5- late 50 km

4 JMA detection rate First 3 years: warnings 9 warnings for M6 and M7 earthquakes M Predicted Observed P-to-warning Intensity Intensity time (sec) May 8, Jun 14, July 8, July 24, Sep 11, Aug 11, Oct 30, Feb 27, Mar 14, false è one false, zero missed Warning threshold: JMA intensity 5- (equivalent to MMI 8-9) Kamigaichi et al 2009, Doi et al 2011 and Jim Mori

5 Japan Public information campaign Japan Meteorological Agency

6 Japan Communicating the warning TV and radio announcements 124 of 127 TV stations (98%) 41 AM, 35 FM radio (75%) J-Alert messages 226 municipalities receive the warnings 102 announce them with public address systems earthquake location and hazard estimated shaking in your area Cell phones 3 companies (Docomo, AU, Softbank) 52 million can receive them (47%) Dedicated providers serve power plants factories schools hospitals shopping malls

7 The March 11, 2011, Tohoku-oki earthquakes Performance of the warning system

8 Japan Meteorological Agency Earthquake Warning Origin time: 14:46:18.1 First detection: 14:46: Warning issued: 14:46: Map right: Circles: time till S-wave Color: predicted shaking intensity è a warning was issued before the S-wave reached the shore Warning information:

9 The warning

10 The warning courtesy of Masumi Yamada

11 Warning application For a user in Sendai From the Real-time Earthquake Information Consortium Predicted intensity P-wave S-wave countdown Estimated magnitude YouTube: Download mp4:

12 In a university lecture hall in Sendai: Just after 2:46 p.m. on Friday, March 11, an earthquake warning buzzed on the cell phone belonging to Professor Kensuke Watanabe. He knew it was time for everyone in his class to bolt under their desks. The university building in Sendai, the biggest city hit by the quake and subsequent tsunami, began to shake violently. But Watanabe and his students, with that small warning, were able to use the sturdy desks as protection against falling objects. Shortly after, they fled the building for open ground. None in the group was hurt by Japan's worst earthquake on record. "It was terrifying," says Watanabe, "but the mobile warning really helped." Extract from "Japan's Earthquake Warning System Explained TIME, March 18, 2011.

13 Sendai schools and universities I've confirmed that EEW worked well Nagamachi Elementary School in Sendai City: The earthquake waning was announced about 10 sec before shaking and all pupils sank under their desks. Gradually shaking became larger. One minute later blackout occurred and another two minutes severe shaking continued'. At Shiroishi Junior High School, Shiroishi City an EEW was also issued and staff and pupils were evacuated. Sendai-West High School's EEW used Miyagi-SWAN (School WAN) and also worked. Teachers were in a meeting and sank under desks following the EEW. Athletic club students at gymnasium were also evacuated. Tohoku University's EEW used University LAN worked and issued the EEW to the broadcast systems at 5 campuses. report from Masato Motosaka

14 Courtesy Masato Motosaka

15 Surviving Sendai, a first person account: "Our meeting was being held on the second floor of an office building near Sendai Station. Suddenly, during our discussions, our mobile phones began to ring with the distinctive earthquake alarm.... This gave us a window of a few seconds to prepare before the shaking began. My business partner and I took shelter on the floor beneath a steel door frame and waited for the shaking to begin. Although the building we were in was fairly new, the shaking was strong enough that we were not able to stand. Dust and debris from the ceiling began to fall like snow and large cracks appeared in the walls." Basil Tonks, Simcoe, March 15, 2011.

16 Bullet trains At the time of the earthquake 24 trains were running in the Tohoku Shinkansen system 9 seismic sensors along the coast, and 44 sensors along the train track detected the initial tremor; automatic shutdown of power; activation of the emergency brakes all trains stopped without derailment they did not sustain any damage on bridges and tunnels, and could restore the operation very quickly - from Asahi

17 Cellphone, TV and radio warnings warning region courtesy of Masumi Yamada

18 No warning in Tokyo? Tokyo predicted intensity 4 observed intensity 6 Population exposure è No cellphone warning courtesy of Masumi Yamada

19 No warning in Tokyo? Warning System Nature, 2011

20 Automated TV warning Studio in Tokyo YouTube: Download mp4:

21 Warning application For a user in Tokyo YouTube: Download mp4:

22 As for EEW, I believe one for the main shock was issued and used as designed. However, ones for some of aftershocks were not accurate in terms of location of a hypocenter. There are occurring many aftershocks in a wide focal area and induced earthquakes inland. In a case where earthquakes occurred in different place at the nearly same time, events were hardly separated. This caused miss-location of earthquakes and miss-prediction of seismic intensity. Some of press say EEW is disappointing or useless. Of course, there are also a lot of success stories to avoid danger before tremor. - Keiji Doi, Japan Meteorological Agency

23 Aftershock miss-associations If error in I JMA 3 Error in intensity estimate (if estimated, i.e. I JMA 5-) (3/11-3/25, 45 events) courtesy of Masumi Yamada

24 Aftershock miss-associations March 11 th 14:46:17 Main event March 12 th 03:11:27, M6 (worst case) All warnings:

25 Warnings in Japan First 3 years: 21 warnings 9 M 6 earthquakes 1 false, 0 missed M9 Tohoku-oki earthquake: Success: system detected the earthquakes and issued a warning near the epicenter before the S-wave reached the shore But the region receiving the warning was not large enough underestimation of the magnitude (M8 rather than M9) point source approximation And the system struggled with aftershocks miss-associations lead to false and missed warnings no warnings for the first 3 hours

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