People Without Jobs, Ontario's Labour Market Future

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1 People Without Jobs, Jobs Without People: Ontario's Labour Market Future Rick Miner, Ph.D.

2 75% Figure 1. Percentage of Total Canadian Population, Years of Age 70% Percentage 65% 60% 55% Year Source: Russell Barnett, Bank of Canada Review, Summer

3 5,000,000 Figure 2. Ontario Population Projections by Age Population 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, , Year Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance,

4 100% 90% 80% 70% Figure 3. Ontario Participation Rates by Gender and Age: 2008 Percentage 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% men women Source: Statistics Canada,

5 Figure 4. Ontario Population and Workforce Projections: ,000 14,000 13,000 (in thousands) 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6, Medium Population (15 years and older) Labour Force Availability: high growth Labour Force Availability:low growth Labour Force Demand Labour Force Availability: medium growth Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance, 2005 and

6 Figure 5. Ontario Labour Force Supply and Demand: High, Medium and Low Population Growth Projections Labour Force (thousands) Deficit Surplus Supply vs. Demand:high growth Supply vs. Demand:medium growth Supply vs. Demand: low growth Years 6

7 Futurist Adam Gordon ( Jobs): Body Part Maker Nano-Medic Memory Augmentation Surgeon Space Pilots Climate Change Reversal Specialist Weather Modification Police Narrowcasters Social Networking Worker Personal Branders Organ Transplant Agent 7

8 Figure 6. Ontario Labour Force Balance: Medium Population Growth Labour force by skilled and unskilled labour (in thousands) Deficit Surplus Total LF Skill Shortage Unskilled Surplus

9 Figure 7. Ontario Labour Force Balance: High Population Growth 1000 Labour force by skilled and unskilled labour (in thousands) Deficit Surplus Total LF Skill Shortage Unskilled Surplus

10 Youth, Female and Older worker participation rate increases 100% Figure 3. Ontario Participation Rates by Gender and Age: % 80% 70% Percentage 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% men women Source: Statistics Canada,

11 Figure 8. US Labour Force Balance Year Total LF Skilled labour force Unskilled labour force 11 Labour Force by Skilled and Unskilled Labour (thousands) Deficit Surplus

12 Figure 9. Canada Labour Force Balance: Medium Population Growth 2000 Labour force by skilled and unskilled labour (in thousands) Deficit Surplus Total LF Skill Shortage Unskilled Surplus

13 Thank you

14 Job Descriptions Futurist Adam Gordon ( Jobs): Body Part Maker: the creation & maintenance of body parts using bio tissues, robotics and plastics Nano Medic: nano medicine specialists will be required to administer a range of sub atomic nanoscale devices, inserts and procedures Memory Augmentation Surgeon: to increase memory capacity and to help those who have been over exposed to information Organ Agent: sources and negotiates real or artificial organs on behalf of those who want them Old Age Wellness Manager: drawing on a range of medical, pharmaceutical, prosthetic, psychiatric, natural and fitness solutions to help manage the various health and personal needs of the aging population End of life Planner: person who helps people plan and manage their own death Climate Change Reversal Specialist: a new breed of engineer scientists will be required to help reduce or reverse the effects of climate change on particular locations New Science Ethicist: need to understand a range of underlying scientific fields and help society make consistent choices about what developments to allow. Much of science will not be a question of can we, but should we Time Broker: alternative currencies will evolve their own markets (Time banking facilitates reciprocal service exchange based on units of time.) Weather Modification Police: the act of stealing clouds to create rain is already happening in some parts of the world, and is altering weather patterns thousands of miles away. Weather modification police will need to control and monitor who is allowed to shoot rockets containing silver iodine into the air a way to provoke rainfall from passing clouds Quarantine Enforcer: if a deadly virus starts spreading rapidly, few countries, and few people, will be prepared. As mortality rates rise, and neighborhoods are shut down, someone will have to guard the gates 14

15 Automated Systems Monitor: person who oversees automated systems (e.g. smart highways) and intervenes and corrects as necessary. Would need specific expertise in their field transport or manufacturing or surgery or whatever is automated but would share the specific skill of being a complex automated system monitor, evaluator, and emergency troubleshooter Vertical Farmer: city based vertical farms, with hydroponically fed food being grown in multi storey buildings Pharmer : raise crops and livestock that have been genetically engineered to improve yields and produce therapeutic proteins Narrowcasters: as the broadcasting media become increasingly personalized, specialists will work with content providers and advertisers to create content tailored to individual needs Social Networking Worker: social workers for those in some way traumatized or marginalized by social networking Personal Branders: an extension of the role played by stylists, publicists and executive coaches advising on how to create a personal brand using social and other media Virtual Clutter Organizer: organising our electronic lives Waste Data Handler: specialists providing a secure data disposal service Virtual Lawyer: as more and more of our daily life goes online, specialists will be required to resolve legal disputes which could involve citizens resident in different legal jurisdictions Avatar Manager: avatars could be used to support or even replace teachers in the elementary classroom, i.e., computer personas that serve as personal interactive guides Space Pilot: for space tourism, space trained pilots and tour guides will be needed, as well as designers to enable the habitation of space and the planets Alternative Vehicle Developers: designers and builders of the next generations of vehicle transport using alternative materials and fuels 15

16 1000 Figure 6. Ontario Labour Force Balance: Medium Population Growth Labour force by skilled and unskilled labour (in thousands) Deficit Surplus Total LF Skill Shortage Unskilled Surplus Total LF Skill Shortage Unskilled Surplus

17 Figure 7. Ontario Labour Force Balance: High Population Growth 1000 Labour force by skilled and unskilled labour (in thousands) Deficit Surplus Total LF Skill Shortage Unskilled Surplus Total LF Skill Shortage Unskilled Surplus

18 Figure 8. US Labour Force Balance Deficit Surplus Total LF Skilled labour force Unskilled labour force Total LF Skilled labour force Unskilled labour force

19 Figure 9. Canada Labour Force Balance: Medium Population Growth 2000 Labour force by skilled and unskilled labour (in thousands) Deficit Surplus Total LF Skill Shortage 3000 Unskilled Surplus Total LF Skill Shortage Unskilled Surplus

20 Table 2. Immigrant vs. Ontario Labour Force Participation Rates: Years of Age Canadian 1 Immigrant 2 Labour Force Participation Rate Very Recent Recent Established 88.2% 74.8% 83.1% 87.0% 1 Born in Canada 2 Very Recent = 5 years or less Recent = 5 to 10 years Established = 10 years or more Source: Statistics Canada,

21 Table 3. Ontario Aboriginal Labour Force Participation Rates 1 Population Age (years) Total Population 2 Aboriginal Population Difference % 57.0% 8.2% % 77.1% 8.5% % 50.3% 11.2% 1 Taken from 2006 Census data, Statistics Canada, No XCB Includes the Aboriginal population which makes the difference less 21

22 Table 4. Persons with Disabilities: Labour Force Participation Ages With disabilities Without disabilities Participation Rates 54.9% 77.3% Specific Disability Hearing 64.1% Seeing 49.9% Learning 47.6% Developmental 32.7% Mobility 53.6% Memory 40.2% Agility 52.8% Psychological 45.2% Source: Statistics Canada,

23 Table A. Participation Rate Projections by Province: 2005 and Province Change Over Time NFLD 58.3% 51.9% -6.4 PEI 68.0% 60.0% -8.0 NS 63.5% 56.0% -7.5 NB 63.2% 55.0% -8.2 Quebec 64.9% 59.3% -5.6 ONT 67.6% 63.5% -4.1 MAN 68.4% 64.1% -4.3 SASK 67.6% 61.6% -6.0 ALB 72.3% 66.5% -5.8 BC 65.3% 58.1% -7.2 CANADA 66.8% 61.6% Statistics Canada, XIB using population scenario 3 (medium growth)

24 Table B. Labour Force Participation Rates by Province: November Province Participation Rate NFLD 58.3 PEI 66.0 NS 63.6 NB 64.1 Quebec 65.5 ONT 67.6 MAN 69.5 SASK 69.6 ALB 74.5 BC 66.1 CANADA Statistics Canada, monthly labour force characteristics

25 Table C. Dependency Ratios 1 by Province: 2006 and Province 0-14 years 65+ Total 0-14 years 65+ Total NFLD PEI NS NB Quebec ONT MAN SASK ALB BC CANADA Dependency ratio is the percentage of population in the younger and older age groups. Source is Statistics Canada -catalogue no using scenario 3 population projection (medium growth)

26 Table D. Educational Attainment by Province: Ages 25 to 64 1 Province Without High School Only High School Over High School NFLD 25.7% 19.6% 54.7% PEI 18.7% 23.7% 57.7% NS 18.6% 20.9% 60.5% NB 21.0% 25.8% 53.3% Quebec 17.1% 21.1% 61.8% ONT 13.6% 25.0% 61.4% MAN 20.4% 25.4% 54.2% SASK 19.4% 26.7% 53.9% ALB 15.4% 24.1% 60.5% BC 12.4% 25.9% 61.8% CANADA 15.4% 23.9% 60.6% 1 Statistics Canada using 2006 Census data

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