IMPLEMENTING THE NAICS FOR BUSINESS SURVEYS AT BLS

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1 IMPLEMENTING THE NAICS FOR BUSINESS SURVEYS AT BLS Gordon Mkkelson, Teresa L. Mors, George Stamas, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statstcs George Stamas, Bureau of Labor Statstcs, Sute 4985, 2 Massachusetts Ave NE, Washngton, DC Stamas_g@bls.gov ABSTRACT To mplement the North Amercan Industry Classfcaton System (NAICS), the Bureau of Labor Statstcs and State partners are assgnng NAICS codes to the approxmately 8.2 mllon employers covered by State unemployment nsurance (UI) laws. Employer UI reports are the bass of the Longtudnal Data Base (LDB), whch serves as the frame for BLS establshment surveys. The NAICS converson ncludes a mult-year process of gatherng nformaton from employers n order to assgn NAICS codes. The collecton procedure allows for nterm assessment of the effect of the NAICS converson on ndustry classfcaton and BLS products. When employers do not provde adequate nformaton for ndustry classfcaton, BLS wll assgn NAICS codes based on the dstrbuton of those codes across other establshments wth the same Standard Industral Classfcaton (SIC) and other characterstcs. These procedures wll be appled to current and, to the extent feasble, hstorc data on the LDB ncludng establshments that are out of busness. Ths provdes a frame for surveys requrng stratfcaton by NAICS and ads n the converson from SIC to NAICS for ongong surveys. In addton, the avalablty of a contnuous hstory wth NAICS codes wll permt seasonal adjustment and other tme-seres analyss of the data. Key Words: Industry classfcaton, Samplng frame, Nonresponse * All opnons expressed n ths paper are those of the authors and do not consttute polcy of the Bureau of Labor Statstcs. 1. INTRODUCTION The Covered Employment and Wages Program, commonly referred to as the ES-202 program, s a cooperatve program between the Bureau of Labor Statstcs (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor and the State Employment Securty Agences (SESAs). The ES-202 program produces a comprehensve tabulaton of employment and wage nformaton for workers covered by State unemployment nsurance (UI) laws. Employer UI reports also are the bass of the Longtudnal Data Base (LDB), whch serves as the samplng frame for BLS establshment surveys. For more nformaton on the ES-202 program, see the BLS Handbook of Methods, Bulletn 2490 (Bureau of Labor Statstcs, Aprl 1997). In order to mplement the North Amercan Industry Classfcaton System (NAICS) for the ES-202 program, the BLS and ts State partners are assgnng NAICS ndustry codes to the approxmately 8.2 mllon employers covered by UI laws. The NAICS converson ncludes a mult-year process of gatherng nformaton from employers n order to assgn NAICS codes. Whenever employers do not provde adequate nformaton for ndustry classfcaton, BLS assgns NAICS codes based on the dstrbuton of those codes across other establshments wth the same Standard Industral Classfcaton (SIC) and other characterstcs. These procedures wll be appled to current and, to the extent feasble, hstorc data on the LDB ncludng establshments that are out of busness. Ths provdes a frame for surveys requrng stratfcaton by NAICS and ads n the converson from SIC to NAICS for ongong surveys. In addton, the avalablty of a contnuous hstory wth NAICS codes wll permt seasonal adjustment and other tme-seres analyss of the data. 2. WHAT IS NAICS? NAICS was establshed n 1997 through a cooperatve effort among the Unted States, Mexco, and Canada. The Bureau of Labor Statstcs worked closely wth the Bureau of the Census, the Bureau of Economc Analyss, and

2 other U.S. statstcal agences to acheve the goal of developng NAICS. NAICS replaces the SIC (Standard Industral Classfcaton) system that has been n place snce the 1930s and was last revsed n 1987 (NAICS, 1998). NAICS was developed based on the economc concept that establshments should be grouped together accordng to smlar producton processes. Ths codng system focuses on the dentfcaton of new and emergng ndustres and hgh technology ndustres, and provdes ncreased detal n the servces sector over what was avalable under the SIC system. It uses a sx-dgt classfcaton system that generally provdes three-country comparablty at the fvedgt level. Under NAICS, the hghest level of aggregaton s the sector, of whch there are 21. Ths compares to the 10 dvsons avalable under the SIC system. NAICS ncludes nne new servce sector aggregatons that were not found under the SIC system. For addtonal nformaton concernng the NAICS codng system, see Ambler (1998) and Murphy (1998). 3. OTHER CHANGES WITH NAICS The treatment of auxlares wll change under NAICS. Auxlares are workstes wthn a company that prmarly serve other establshments wthn the same company (examples are warehouses or corporate offces). Under NAICS, auxlary unts wll carry the NAICS code for ther prmary actvty, whle under SIC, auxlary unts were classfed accordng to the prmary actvty of the company they served. BLS s conductng a specal survey n fscal year (FY) 2000, n order to verfy auxlary status and assgn NAICS codes to auxlary unts reflectng that status. Non-auxlary unts wll be automatcally assgned a code that matches ther NAICS code. The success of the survey on auxlares wll be especally mportant, because ES-202 data under NAICS wll be tabulated and publshed usng the NAICS treatment of auxlares. A revson to NAICS 1997 s on the way -- NAICS The three countres are currently workng on proposed changes to the constructon and wholesale trade sectors, because agreements were not reached on these two sectors durng NAICS In addton, changes are planned wthn the Informaton and Retal Trade sectors n order to better capture Internet-related actvtes. The task for BLS and ts State partners s to assgn NAICS codes to the 8.2 mllon busness establshments n the ES-202 program. At the same tme, the ES-202 program wll verfy SIC codes (and assgn SIC codes to new unts) n order to create lnkages between the two ndustry classfcaton systems. BLS plans to mplement NAICS over a four-year perod. By the end of FY 2001, all establshments n the ES-202 program wll be assgned NAICS 2002 codes. The frst step n assgnng NAICS codes wll be to contact the employer drectly, as descrbed n the next secton. Those unts that do not receve NAICS codes through ths process (.e., nonrespondents) wll be assgned one by an mputaton process developed by BLS (descrbed later n ths paper). BLS wll ncorporate NAICS 2002 changes, usng the NAICS treatment of auxlares, wth the frst publcaton of ES-202 data under NAICS. Ths wll be publshed n 2002, for reference year Ths schedule wll ease the burden on data users by provdng a sngle change n codng structure from the 1987 SIC to NAICS ASSIGNING NAICS CODES BY CONTACTING THE EMPLOYER 4.1 The Reflng Process The ES-202 program updates classfcaton codes usng a process known as "reflng," n whch the employer receves a form from ther State Employment Securty Agency (SESA). The employer wll verfy or update the nformaton contaned there, ncludng the prmary busness actvty of the establshment. The form wll ask the employer to select an approprate NAICS-based ndustry descrpton for the establshment. The SESA wll then assgn a NAICS code based on ths response. Some SIC and NAICS code combnatons wll be drect matches, that s, the SIC code s assocated wth only one NAICS code. Splt combnatons, or non-drects, occur when the SIC code maps to more than one NAICS code. Durng the reflng process, BLS targeted drects and non-drects, as well as records that had no NAICS code, an unclassfed NAICS code, or an nvald one. Durng the last year of mplementaton, BLS wll refle establshments affected by changes n NAICS Detals are as follows:

3 FY 1998 Establshments n drect ndustres were automatcally assgned a NAICS code by a computer program. Ths affected approxmately one-half of establshments n the ES-202 program. The drect match program s run perodcally to assgn codes to any records that have drect match SICs but no NAICS code. FY 1999 All unts wth employment greater than or equal to 50 (ncludng drects recoded n FY 1998) were selected to receve a reflng form as well as unts that had SIC 9999 (Unclassfed), or SIC 9621, (Regulaton and Admnstraton of Transportaton Programs). Records collected by the BLS EDI (Electronc Data Interchange) center were also refled. Fnally, a random sample of the UI accounts wth less than 50 employees and workstes wth SICs that could not be drectly matched to one NAICS code were refled. FY 2000 FY 2001 Selected durng ths fscal year were unts that lacked a NAICS code, had an unclassfed NAICS (NAICS ) or had an nvald NAICS code. A survey s beng done n FY 2000 n order to verfy the auxlary status of auxlary unts and to assgn a correspondng NAICS code. Included n ths year's reflng wll be those SICs mpacted by the NAICS 2002 revson. 4.2 Response rates The success of the revson from SIC to NAICS requres that BLS and ts State partners work dlgently to ensure accuracy and completeness n the converson to NAICS codes. To meet ths objectve, States pursue a goal of achevng usable response rates of at least 90 percent, n both unts and employment, durng each year's reflng cycle. Usable responses are those that receve a NAICS code through the reflng process. Establshments receve up to three non-response follow-up malngs. By December 1999, 72 percent of records n the ES-202 program had receved NAICS codes from the reflng process; n terms of employment, 84 percent had been assgned NAICS codes. See ndustry detals n the adjacent table. For the remander of unts that do not receve NAICS codes from the reflng process, BLS wll assgn NAICS codes through an mputaton process as descrbed later n ths paper. 5. ESTIMATION WITH FIRST QUARTER 1999 Most establshment surveys that BLS conducts use hstorcal tme seres data n order to evaluate current economc actvty. The mplementaton of a new ndustry codng system has a sgnfcant mpact on the contnuty and value of these tme seres. Because the assgnment of NAICS codes s phased n over a four year perod, BLS programs that mantan tme seres need to be able to estmate the movement of economc actvtes between the SIC and NAICS codes before all of the establshments have been assgned NAICS codes. For purposes of estmaton, the records are dvded nto three types: drect matches, certanty records, and sample records. Each of these s handled separately durng the estmaton process. For the purpose of calculatng weghts used for estmaton, UI accounts were stratfed by state, 4-dgt SIC, and employment sze class. 5.1 Drect Matches Dvson Percent of Records Coded Percent of Employment Coded Agrculture, forestry, fshng Mnng Constructon Manufacturng, durable Manufacturng, nondurable Transportaton, publc utltes Wholesale trade Retal trade Fnance, nsurance, real estate Servces Government Total wth NAICS The drect matches are records that have only one NAICS code assocated wth the SIC code for that record. Included are sngle workste accounts wth an average monthly employment (AME) of 50 or less, and multple

4 workste accounts wth all workstes n drect SICs and a total AME of 50 or less. In the estmaton process, these records receve a fnal weght of 1.000, and a non-response adjustment s not needed. There s no accountng for out-of-busness UI accounts although some proporton would fall nto ths category. Snce these are small UI accounts, out-of-busness unts could be a substantal part of ths category. Ths may lead to an overestmaton of the number of unts and employment. There s also no accountng for movement of these drect unts nto non-drect NAICS codes or nto other drect NAICS codes among these small employers. For example, all unts n SIC 0112 would be coded to NAICS code They cannot be classfed nto NAICS codes lke or any of the other non-drect NAICS codes lke Therefore, the number of unts and employment for drect NAICS codes would be overstated whle for non-drect NAICS codes t would be understated. 5.2 Certanty Records and Sampled Records We desgnated UI accounts wth AME of at least 50 as Certanty and selected 100 percent. We randomly selected about one-half of the UI accounts consstng of sngle records n splt SICs wth an AME of less than 50, and mult-unt accounts that have at least one sub-unt n a splt SIC, and an AME of less than 50. We called these Sampled. Each of these groups of UI accounts, Certanty and Sampled, was stratfed across 4-dgt SIC and sze class. Wthn each stratum, we calculated samplng weghts, N/s, where N s the number of UI accounts n a stratum and s s the number of accounts selected for reflng. The weght was generally for certanty strata and about for sampled strata. The non-response adjustment factor s s/r, where s s the number of UI accounts that were selected and r s the number of UI accounts that responded ncludng out-of-busness UI accounts. In the absence of any other nformaton, the assumpton s made that the dstrbuton of non-respondents s the same as that of respondents. For mult-establshment UI accounts, a partal response s consdered a respondent. For these UI accounts, a weght adjustment s done to account for the non-respondng sub-unts. Ths adjustment, p, s the rato of the sum of employment across all reportng unts n the account dvded by the sum of employment across all of those wth NAICS codes. In addton, for mult-establshment accounts, all sub-unts have to be outof-busness for the account to be classfed as out-of-busness. The fnal weght s equal to the samplng weght tmes non-response adjustment tmes the partal adjustment, (N/r) * p, and s assgned to each sub-unt of a UI account. Estmates were calculated by summng data of approprate establshments to aggregated levels. Essentally, the formulas n the box were used. fwt are the fnal weghts and the summaton s across all reportng unts n any group of nterest. Rato tables that show the dstrbuton of unts, employment, and wages from each SIC across the NAICS codes assocated wth the SICs were also produced. 6. IMPUTING NAICS CODES WHERE THEY ARE MISSING We need NAICS codes assgned to every record n the database for samplng on a NAICS code bass and for aggregatng records to publsh summares and other statstcs. We wll apply an mputaton procedure, state by state, to assgn NAICS, NAICS correspondng to auxlary status, and NAICS 2002 codes where they are mssng on the 2000 and 2001 fles. 1 For an overvew of mputaton procedures, see Kalton and Kasprzyk (1982). Nˆ = EMP ˆ = Wages ˆ = fwt ( fwt)( EMP) ( fwt)( Wages) 1 In order to approxmate the dstrbuton of NAICS codes across records wth reported SIC and NAICS codes, the Bureau of the Census used a random assgnment process. Ths process used dgts from the Employer Identfcaton Number (EIN) from each record mssng a NAICS as random numbers. They establshed ranges for

5 Our mputaton of NAICS 1997 n the summer of 2000 and NAICS 2002 n the summer of 2001 wll use a nearest neghbor procedure. Frst, we wll assgn NAICS codes automatcally to records wth drect match SICs. Then we wll apply an mputaton procedure to assgn NAICS codes to any records that reman wthout them. Ths nearest neghbor procedure wll choose a donor record wth the closest average employment from among those records wth the same SIC and a state-assgned NAICS code. Tes among donors wll be broken wth a random assgnment process. The process s based on the assumpton that among records wth the same 4-dgt SIC, employment s a sgnfcant explanatory varable when determnng NAICS assgnment. The algorthm wll be appled frst to records from UI accounts wth multple workstes reported, and then to any remanng records wthout NAICS codes. Before mputng codes, the fles wll be edted for nvald SIC/NAICS condtons. Records that do not pass ths edt wll not be used n the mputaton process and wll be forwarded to the states for correcton. Occasonally, none of the records for a gven SIC wll have a state-assgned NAICS. In these cases, the procedure wll go to a natonal summary fle, wth records of observed SIC and NAICS combnatons, and wll choose a donor record wth the closest average employment from among those wth the same SIC, and assgn that NAICS code. The frst type of record requrng mputaton comes from UI accounts wth multple workstes, where some records n that account for a gven SIC have NAICS codes reported but others do not. The mputaton wll be carred out usng only records reported wth that UI account. For each SIC assgned to records n any such UI account, we wll determne whether any records have a NAICS code assgned. If none of the records has a NAICS code, then we wll calculate the average employment across the records, search the natonal summary fle and choose from among those wth the same SIC the NAICS code wth the closest average employment. If some of the records wth the same SIC n the UI account have a NAICS code assgned, we wll determne whether there s only one NAICS code or more than one. If there s only one NAICS code, then we wll assgn that code to every record wth that SIC. Otherwse, we apply the nearest neghbor method to assgn codes. We wll mpute for any sngle-ste UI account wthout a NAICS code usng the same algorthm. Frst, we wll attempt nearest neghbor mputaton usng responses from records wth the same SIC. If no such record are avalable, we wll search the natonal summary fle and choose the NAICS code wth the closest average employment from those wth the same SIC. In the event that a partcular SIC has no responses for NAICS n the natonal summary fle, we wll determne the possble NAICS codes for that SIC and assgn those codes randomly across the UI account havng that SIC. The process of mputng NAICS codes that reflect auxlary status where those codes are mssng wll treat records the same whether they come from a multple-workste UI account or a sngle-ste account. Because these records wll be so lmted n number, the procedure wll go drectly to one of two natonal summary fles. One fle has all reported NAICS, and auxlary code combnatons wth reported NAICS codes reflectng auxlary status and average employment. The other fle has all reported SIC and auxlary code combnatons wth reported NAICS codes reflectng auxlary status and average employment. Frst, any record wthout an auxlary code or wth a code ndcatng that the record s an operatng faclty wll have the NAICS code assgned to the feld for the NAICS code correspondng to auxlary status. Records wth an auxlary code ndcatng that the record s a headquarters or regonal offce, wll be assgned the NAICS code ndcatng t s a headquarters. For any other record wth the NAICS and auxlary codes reported, we wll search the natonal fle for the records wth that NAICS and auxlary code, and choose the auxlary treated NAICS code wth the closest average employment. If the record mssng an auxlary treated NAICS code s also mssng the NAICS code, we wll search records wth the same SIC and auxlary codes and assgn the auxlary treated NAICS wth the closest average employment. If random assgnment of NAICS based on the proporton of records assgned each NAICS n a gven SIC/NAICS group (Census, unpublshed nternal memo). Statstcs Canada dd not have to deal wth mssng NAICS codes because they handle ndustry codng centrally.

6 there s nether a NAICS nor an SIC code, we wll search records wth the same auxlary code and assgn the auxlary treated NAICS wth the closest average employment. 7. CREATING A TIME SERIES The BLS mantans a longtudnal data base (LDB) that lnks UI reports from busnesses through ownershp changes, to the extent possble. Each quarterly record on the LDB has an LDB number that lnks the records for an establshment back through tme. Ths makes hstorcal data for the establshment easly avalable for analyss. Over tme the ndustry classfcaton of some establshments n the data base have changed. The ES-202 program s consderng how to assgn NAICS codes to hstorcal records, n lght of these classfcaton changes. One approach would be to assgn the code mputed for the most recent quarter to earler quarters as well, regardless of changes n classfcaton. An alternatve approach would be to assgn the NAICS codes ndependently each tme the classfcaton changes, applyng the same algorthms used to assgn codes to Frst Quarter 2001 records. That NAICS code would then be carred back n tme as long as the classfcaton remans unchanged. Establshments that have gone out of busness pror to Frst Quarter 2001 are also part of the LDB and hstorc tme seres, therefore they must be assgned a NAICS code based on SIC. These records wll be assgned codes by applyng the same algorthms wthn each quarter. 8. CONCLUSION Implementng the NAICS at BLS wll nvolve a multyear process that s nearly complete. It s mperatve that the mplementaton be done n both an accurate and tmely manner. Other BLS programs wll begn publcaton based on NAICS effectve wth data year (See the box.) Therefore, by data year 2001, all 8.2 mllon employers n the ES-202 program must have NAICS codes. BLS has produced estmates of the effect of NAICS on employment and wages reported under the ES-202 program. Normal nonresponse wll requre BLS to assgn NAICS codes to those employers that reman wthout one after the reflng process ends. BLS has desgned an mputaton process to assgn NAICS codes to those records that do not have them. BLS IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE Reference Program Year Covered Employment and Wages--ES-202 Job Openngs and Labor Turnover Survey Occupatonal Employment Statstcs Mass Layoff Statstcs Current Employment Statstcs Productvty measures for selected ndustres Foregn Labor Force Statstcs Occupatonal Safety and Health Statstcs Current Populaton Survey Employment Projectons Natonal Compensaton Survey Producer Prces Indexes 9. REFERENCES Ambler, Carole A. (1998), NAICS and U.S. Statstcs, Proceedngs of the Secton on Government Statstcs and the Secton on Socal Statstcs, Amercan Statstcal Assocaton, pp Executve Offce of the Presdent, Offce of Management and Budget (1998), North Amercan Industral Classfcaton System - Unted States, Kalton, G. and Kasprzyk, D. (1982), Imputng for Mssng Survey Responses, Proceedngs of the Secton on Survey Research Methods, Amercan Statstcal Assocaton, pp Murphy, John B. (1998), Introducng the North Amercan Industry Classfcaton System, Monthly Labor Revew, July 1988, Vol. 121, No. 7, pp U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statstcs, Bulletn 2490 (1997), BLS Handbook of Methods, pp

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