THE SIGNIFICANCE OF AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY ON THE TURKEY s FOREIGN TRADE,

Transcription

1 THE SIGNIFICANCE OF AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY ON THE TURKEY s FOREIGN TRADE, Deniz UZKUÇ ECN 2404-INTRODUCTION TO RESEARCH METHODS II PROF. DR. EMİNE SEDEF AKGÜNGÖR DOKUZ EYLUL UNIVERSITY

2 Contents No. 1. Introduction 2. Theoretical Model/Analysis 3. Exports of Automotive Sector in Turkey 4. Imports of Automotive Sector in Turkey 5. Empirical Results 6. Conclusions Resources

3 Abstract The purpose of this study is to show the importance of automotive sector in Turkey's economy.observed and evaluated the foreign trade of the automotive sector in turkey for this purpose. In addition to this, using the datas of the Automotive Sector Society (OSD), hand-made tables are considered and it is aimed to give information to consumers and producers Key words :Automotive Sector, Import of Automotive Sector, Export of Automotive Sector, Total Export of Turkey. 1.Introduction As in many regions of the world motor vehicle production in Turkey, constituted the majority of the total automobile production. As Turkey's domestic market or international markets by producing cars for sale in the domestic market to be less affected by negative changes and the means of production do not experience disruption. Shape 1 Automotive Industry Iron Steel Industry Petroleum Industry Tire Textile Glass Electronic Machinery manufacturing industry Automotive Industry Marketing Service/Spare part Finance/Insurance Fuel oil Defence Agriculture Tourism Transportation Infrastructure Construction Resource : Otomotiv Ana ve Yan Sanayiinde İhracat Stratejisinin Temel İlkeleri, Rapor 1998/7, OSD.

4 Shown in Figure 1, a driving force in economic development of the automotive industry, if industry is fascinating. Iron and steel, petrochemical, rubber, textiles, glass, electric-electronics and machinery manufacturing various sectors such as the product gets them jobs and production as a result of defense, agriculture, tourism, transport, infrastructure and construction of many other industries for use in locomotive duty sees 1. Apart from these industries, marketing, service, spare parts, finance, insurance and many other areas, such as fuel leading to the additional contribution is located. 2 Automotive industry, defense industry is the foundation. Continuous and reliable source of single tax. Roads and tourism in Turkey, in the development of rapid urbanization and changing consumption patterns, a high proportion of young people because there is potential demand in the automobile. This demand must be met by domestic production, foreign exchange needed for imports will increase otherwise.in addition, the automotive has chain affect and the driving forca development because of its relationship with other sectors 3. In the automotive sector in Turkey started in the 1990s, the processes of change occurring in the competitive structure of exports has continued with success. Particularly the Customs Union with the structure of foreign trade and development objectives have changed significantly. Its capacity in the sector this year, investment in technology and manpower as well as the EU and global stability, particularly in technical compliance was an important factor in the rise of exports is considered. Increasing exports of course, through new projects and designs continue day after day. Looking at the course in the same period imports, the Customs Union in 1996 and began to rise in 2000 due to increasing demand in the private as macro economic conditions, with the highest level reached 8276 million dollars. However, at the end of the year because of excessive current account deficit as a result of 10 billion dollars as a result of the crisis in 2001 with $ 2574 million, the lowest levels occurred in the last eight years. In 2002, the increase in foreign exchange rates, inflation to remain below the value of imports can be said to be a significant impact on the rise again 4. 1 Ercan TEZER, Gümrük Birliği ve Otomotiv Sanayii, Esbank, Yayın No:6, Ekim 1995, s OSD, Türkiye de Otomotiv Sanayiinde Gümrük Birliğinin Gerçekleştirilmesi, OSD Yayını, Ankara, Eylül 1994, s.1. 3 Emrah CENGİZ, Uluslararası Pazarlarda Tutundurma ve Uluslararası Otomotiv Firmalarının Türkiye deki Tutundurma Faaliyetlerine İlşkin Bir Uygulama, Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İstanbul, 1999, s Erinç YELDAN, Küreselleşme Sürecinde Türkiye Ekonomisi, İletişim Yayınları, Ankara, 2003, s.102

5 2.Theoretical Model/Analysis The relationship between units to show their correlation is explained.tried to show the relationship between total exports and Turkey's automotive exports. If Automotive sector exports incerease, total export of Turkey increase. 3.Exports of Automotive Sector in Turkey In 1993, the TL, the real appreciation trend to continue as domestic demand and exports in the overall economy due to narrowing the life line of the automotive exports has also declined. 1994, the automotive production of more domestic demand to meet the case, the 1994 first half in the exchange rates soaring and begins showing the economic crisis, and then implement the stabilization measures, domestic demand considerably narrowed as a result of the manufacturer towards exports In the share of total foreign trade of automotive exports, the average level was 30%. Since 2000, exports of automotive companies with the start of the project, the share of exports in foreign trade began to increase. However, in 2000 the imports of the automotive market's growth and the increase in foreign exchange rates remained low, automotive exports 28% of its share in total foreign trade carried out in such a low level is caused. However, in 2002, one on the basis of exports increased, imports declined, although the year in foreign exchange rates remained low due to the 2002 foreign trade in the export ratio, compared to 2001 decreased and was 52%. Graph 1 Export of Automotive Industry in Turkey (Million Dollars)

6 Resources: In 2002, exports increased in 1992 due to ongoing, and as well as in dollar terms increased by one. As of 2002, motor vehicles were exported.in 2003, automotive exports have increased by 41% and total exports in this sector was U.S. $ 6095 millions.when 2003 compared with 2002; the main industrial exports increased by 79% by 2465 has reached millions of U.S. dollars 5. The automotive industry exports in 2004 is U.S. $ 9906 million. Table 1 in the Turkish Automotive Industry Automotive Production and Total Exports (Quantity) Years Total production (Number) Automotive Export (Number) Export / Production % , , , , , , , , , , , ,45 5

7 4. Imports of Automotive Sector in Turkey The developments in the world to increase imports have played a role. The EU and the high occurrence of unused capacity in the Far East, with potential for growth in markets such as Turkey, special pricing practices has caused. In addition, intense competition in this area that the automotive industry has led to an intensive technological development. Produce new models every year and this model should have high standards of customer preferences towards this model is the result. The increase in imports after 1996 continued in 1999 and beyond. These developments by imports domestic sales share in between the order of 19% and 23% took place in 1994 and 1995 the real exchange rate policy and the domestic industry to the customs union is prepared and modern equipment to produce work according to the 12% and 10% levels of decreased. After the customs union in 1996, this ratio increased slightly in line with increased imports was 24%. In subsequent years the share of imports in domestic sales have continued to increase, this ratio was 55% in This rate of 48% in 2001 and in %, 55% in 2003 and 2004 occurred in the units and units of domestic sales was 58% done with the imports. 6 Graph 2 Automotive Sector in Turkey Imports (Million Dollars) Resources : 6 Filiz TİKEN, Turkish Automotive Industry, TSKB Research, İstanbul, January 2005, p.1.

8 As chart 2 shows, in February and April, after the crisis following the trend of increasing imports of automotive sector in Turkey in 2002 and 3908 million dollars and 7345 million dollars in 2003 and in 2004 was million dollars When a chart review, imports of automotive sector in Turkey, with crises in the years 1994 and 2001, compared to the previous year, following a decline of 60% was observed. The crisis is a result of continuous and stable market share of imports are soaring. Decision of the Customs Union with a total market share of imports has risen to the level of 35%. 45% in 1998 and the recent crisis with the crisis as well as the level has increased 50%. The rise was more severe in the car, the Customs Union with 35% prior to the 1998 crisis, with imports rising rate of 52% in 2000 and then continue with the crisis has risen to the level of 61%. These developments and the crisis as a result of consecutive time in competitiveness of the industry losing big money shows. Every crisis period after the car market, import market share of the 10 points of around increased and in 2003 it% 70s reached the level of the fact that the internal market stability is so important for the future. Turkey's economy has been characterized as leading sectors for the automobile industry, as at January 1, 1996 for EU countries to zero tariff rates and ensure that funds have been included in the customs union. Before Customs Union the largest share of imports in countries with Germany, South Korea, Japan and the Czech Republic and Russia, they are observed. After the Customs Union, especially Germany and France to the EU countries increased their shares, South Korea and Japan's share of 3%, Russia dropped to 5% level. OGT'nin against third countries on the implementation of tariff rate ended in early 2001, the share of EU imports and the decline in the share of Asian and Eastern European countries are expected to increase 7. 7 Asuman Tuncay, Otomotiv Sektörü ve Türkiye de Otomobil Üreten Üç Firmanın Finansal Analizi, Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Marmara Üniversitesi Bankacılık ve Sigortacılık Enstitüsü, İstanbul, 2001, s.27.

9 5.Empirical Results Table 2 Exports of Turkish Automotive Industry and Total Exports of Turkey Year Exports of Automotive Industry Total export of Turkey (1.000 dolar) 1993 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Resources :

10 Table 3 Table of Emprical Results Exports of Automotive Industry Total export of Turkey Mean , ,92 Median ,5 Mode # # Std. Deviation , ,12 Range Variance Correlation 0,99 There is strong (0,99) correlation between total export and export of automobile industry

11 6. Conclusions Empirical testing confirm the hypothesis that an increase in imports of automotive sector leads to increase in total exports of Turkey. A locomotive of economic development in the automotive sector, state sector, is fascinating. Iron and steel, petrochemical, rubber, textiles, glass, electrical & electronics and machinery manufacturing various sectors such as the products when they work and production as a result of defense, agriculture, tourism, transport, infrastructure and construction in many sectors to use the locomotive task sees. Turkey's economy depends on industrialization to have a strong and steadily and increasing income to raise the level of welfare of the people. RESOURCES Asuman Tuncay, Otomotiv Sektörü ve Türkiye de Otomobil Üreten Üç Firmanın Finansal Analizi, Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Marmara Üniversitesi Bankacılık ve Sigortacılık Enstitüsü, İstanbul, 2001, s.27. Emrah CENGİZ, Uluslararası Pazarlarda Tutundurma ve Uluslararası Otomotiv Firmalarının Türkiye deki Tutundurma Faaliyetlerine İlşkin Bir Uygulama, Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, İstanbul Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İstanbul, 1999, s.233 Ercan TEZER, Gümrük Birliği ve Otomotiv Sanayii, Esbank, Yayın No:6, Ekim 1995, s.130 Erinç YELDAN, Küreselleşme Sürecinde Türkiye Ekonomisi, İletişim Yayınları, Ankara, 2003, s.102 Filiz TİKEN, Turkish Automotive Industry, TSKB Research, İstanbul, January 2005, p.1. OSD, Türkiye de Otomotiv Sanayiinde Gümrük Birliğinin Gerçekleştirilmesi, OSD Yayını, Ankara, Eylül 1994, s.1. Web Resources