The Billion Ton 2016 Algae Resource Analysis: Prices to Procure the Biomass

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1 The Billion Ton 2016 Algae Resource Analysis: Prices to Procure the Biomass October 24, 2016 Algae Biomass Summit Phoenix, AZ Rebecca Efroymson 1, André Coleman 2, Mark Wigmosta 2, Susan Schoenung 3, Matthew Langholtz 1, Ryan Davis 4, Shahab Sokhansanj 1, Michael Hilliard 1 1 Oak Ridge National Laboratory 2 Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 3 Longitude 122 West, Inc. 4 National Renewable Energy Laboratory

2 Background 2016 Billion Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy (BT16), volume 1, was released in July The report quantified potential county-level and national feedstock production and cost 2

3 BT16 volume 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Chapter 5 Chapter 6 Current Use of Biomass Resources Forest Resources Agricultural Resources Secondary and Waste Resources Delivered Resources Chapter 7 Microalgae Objectives of microalgae analysis Incorporate algae (for the first time) into a US Billion Ton report, quantifying potential sitespecific to national feedstock production and cost Focus on open ponds/raceways Focus on strategies to reduce production costs Use CO 2 from coal-fired and natural gas power plants and ethanol production plants, rather than purchase CO 2 Consider a high-productivity scenario Consider minimally lined ponds 3

4 Questions and variables Can waste CO 2 be transported cost-effectively? How much suitable land is available near CO 2 sources? Under what conditions are the biggest cost reductions derived from co-location of production with CO 2? How much does the use of saline water increase cost of algal biomass? What effect does an increased future productivity have on potential biomass and price estimates?

5 Production and logistics assumptions Facility size acre traditional raceway open ponds, 30-cm depth (+200 acres infrastructure) Land suitability. Slope 1%, no agricultural land, no forest land Strains. Chlorella sorokiniana, freshwater; Nannochloropsis salina, saline CO 2 demand. Based on annual biomass, C fraction in biomass, CO2 utilization efficiency CO 2 recycle. None Pond ph. No consideration of potential effects Days of annual operation. 330 CO 2 delivery and use. Only during daylight hours; no storage Existing competitive uses of CO 2. If CO 2 had a known existing use, it was not included in this analysis Electricity costs. $0.08 kwh Moisture content. Biomass delivered at 20% solids Coproducts. None See related presentation: Coleman et al. The Billion Ton 2016 Algae Resource Analysis: Waste CO 2 Colocation (Tuesday 10/25, 11AM, Track 2, Engineering & Analysis) 5

6 Cost-effective distance for CO 2 transport See related poster #202 Susan Schoenung et al. Algae co-location resources of carbon dioxide and costeffective transport distances Engineering design based on CO 2 purity 6

7 Assumptions related to price estimates Starting point base case Topic Assumption in Davis et al base case Change for BT16 Cultivation area 500 ten-acre ponds per facility 100 ten-acre ponds per facility. $102 per dry ton added based on economy of scale losses Algae strain Scenedesmus acutus Chlorella sorokiniana (freshwater) and Nannochloropsis salina (saline water); costs from base case in Davis et al. (2016 are adjusted upward by $3/ton for Chlorella and $35/ton for Nannochloropsis) Algal productivity Cultivation productivity target of 25g/m 2 /d annual avg Regional; modeled in BAT, 13.2 g/m 2 /d annual average (or 25 g/m2/d, future) for highly productive regions. Price adjusted based on productivity-price function Saline water No saline case. Liners cover 2 25% of total pond area Estimated costs for both minimal liner and full liner cases used; added $32 per dry ton for blowdown waste disposal pdf CO 2 delivery to facility gate CO 2 purchased at $41/ton CO 2 delivery costs estimated at $0/ton purchase price plus transport costs to facility gate, depending on transport distance and co-location scenario 7

8 Summary results for current productivities Total annual biomass (million tons/year) Total cultivation area (thousand acres) Total CO 2 used (million tons/year) Percent of total CO 2 in CONUS used for algae Ethanol production Chlorella sorokiniana Current productivity Natural gas Coal EGU EGU Nannochloropsis salina Ethanol production Coal EGU Natural gas EGU , ,349 1, % 1.7% 8.9% 16.8% 4.91% 12.6% Average distance from CO 2 source to algae facility (miles) CONUS=contiguous US; EGU=electricity-generating unit 8

9 Interactive components of BT16

10 Example result: Potential biomass supply at future productivity levels using Chlorella sorokiniana in freshwater media in minimally lined ponds using CO 2 from ethanol plants Marginal minimum selling price vs supply 10

11 Minimum selling prices of algae Saline Minimally lined ponds Current productivities Saline Minimally lined ponds Future productivities Saline Fully lined ponds Current productivities Saline Fully lined ponds Future productivities 11

12 Biomass potential and prices 12

13 CO2 co-location cost savings 13

14 Productivity is an important determinant of price 14

15 How complete is the picture in BT16? Higher potential if the following are included: Photobioreactor systems Excretion pathways CO 2 storage Crop rotation or polyculture Sloping land Agricultural land Artificial light Additional co-location opportunities Additional CO 2 sources Waste heat sources Sources of nitrogen and phosphorus Future productivity costs at >$490/dry ton: Reduced if future technology advances considered Represent more finished algae biomass than terrestrial at ~$5/gallon Reduced if coproduct value considered 15

16 Advancing Algal Resources D Market pull S Supply Push Future Research Supply push Crop improvement Logistics Market pull Conversion process efficiency Co-products Aviation & military biofuels Incentives Price Q Q Q Quantity 16

17 Chapter 12. Qualitative Analysis of Environmental Effects for Microalgae in 2016 Billion-Ton Report, Volume 2 Environmental Sustainability Effects of Select Scenarios from Volume 1 PNNL photo Thanks to ABO members who reviewed a draft of this chapter!

18 Summary Algae can provide substantial biomass for biofuels and other uses Co-location with CO 2 sources can reduce costs Increasing productivities and minimizing lined pond area would reduce costs Costs of potential biomass are high, but technical advances could reduce costs Collage by Val Smith 18

19 Acknowledgments This research was supported by the US Department of Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office. We thank Daniel Fishman, Kristen Johnson, Mark Elless, Alison Goss Eng, and Devinn Lambert for insights and project sponsorship. Oak Ridge National Laboratory is managed by UT-Battelle, LLC, for DOE under contract DE-AC05-00OR We d like to thank the following individuals who helped make this chapter better by supplying information or reviewing the algae chapter in the BT16 report: Matt Carr, David Hazlebeck, John Benemann, Toby Ahrens, Yan Poon, Becky Ryan, Jacques Beaudry-Losique, Tomothy Zenk, Martin Sabarsky, Mark Allen, David St. Angelo, Sissi Liu, Al Darzins, Greg Mitchell, Laurie Purpuro, Colin Beal, Michael Huesemann, Richard Skaggs, Ron Kent, Alexis Wolfe, Rebecca White, and Hans Kistenmacher. 19

Open-Raceway Algal Production Operations

Open-Raceway Algal Production Operations Dave Hazlebeck September 2014 The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or