Challenges facing the wind industry introducing the Megavind strategy for components and systems in wind turbines

Transcription

1 Challenges facing the wind industry introducing the Megavind strategy for components and systems in wind turbines Jakob Lau Holst COO, Danish Wind Industry Association 27 th November 2012 Aerospace Supply Chain Seminar, Vestas Wind Systems, Aarhus

2

3 Technological challenges We re developing in Denmark: From 450 kw to 6/8 MW Blade sizes from 15 meters to 85 meters Nacelle weight from 90 tons to 400 tons Turbine height from 80 meters to 250 meters Offshore as well as onshore installation 62 meters 85 meters 15 meters

4 Technological challenges We re developing in Denmark: From 450 kw to 6/8 MW Blade sizes from 15 meters to 85 meters Nacelle weight from 90 tons to 400 tons Turbine height from 80 meters to 250 meters Offshore as well as onshore installation 180 tons 400 tons 90 tons

5 Technological challenges We re developing in Denmark: From 450 kw to 6/8 MW Blades from 15 meters to 85 meters Nacelle weight from 90 tons to 400 tons Turbine height from 80 meters to 250 meters Offshore as well as onshore installation

6 Public Private Partnership - A Joint Interest New National Testcenter for prototypes 7 new test stands for prototypes 5 test stands for prototypes in Høvsøre Another 10 test stands before 2020 Turbines: meters 6-7 MW

7 A comparison with the automobile industry Vehicle Benz Patent- Motorwagen Mercedes- Simplex Ford Modell T Tin Lizzy Toyota VW Golf II VW Golf IV Supply Chain Architecture Garage Coach Builders Industrialization Toyota Production System System Integration Concentration Characteristics Period of Invention Diffusion of Technology Mass Production by OEMs Assembly Line Emerging OEM- Groups Rationalisation of Production Active supplier management System Suppliers start to become important OEM-Mergers OEMs focus on concept Dominance of System-Suppliers Collaboration Concentration of Supplier-Structure Value [monthly wages] Fuel Consumption Power ~ ~ > 40 l/100 km > 15 l/100 km > 10 l/100 km < 10 l/100 km 0,8 HP 2-15 HP 5-20 HP HP HP HP TMG Mercer Analysis 2010

8 New wind industry supply chain From global to local / regional Suppliers moving from being supplier of parts to being supplier of systems Suppliers settling in Clusters Suppliers utilizing regional advantages

9

10 Cost of Energy and the value of wind two simple equations and drivers VoW: Value of Wind - WS: Wind subsidy - CoE: Cost of Energy

11 What is Denmarks RD&D platform for wind energy Vision: Maintain Denmark as a leading competence center for wind energy Mission: Formulate national reference strategies for wind energy Established in 2006 Steering group: Private sector: DONG, Grontmij, Fritz Schur Energy, Siemens Wind Power. Vestas Wind Systems Universities: DTU, DTU-Risoe, University of Aalborg Public institutions: Energy Authority and energinet.dk (observers) Sekretariat: Danish Wind Industry Association

12 Megavind strategies

13 The perfect X-mas gift Megavind Strategy for Components and Systems Published December 2012 The target of the strategy is to focus on the framework conditions and competencies needed for component and subsystems suppliers to reduce cost of wind energy (CoE) and at the same time become more competitive

14 Lowering Cost of Energy

15 Wind turbine and assumptions Før Efter Change Discount factor 13% 13% WTG lifetime Years WTG rated power MW 3 3 Capacity factor % 35% 43% 123% Cost breakdown & Energy production Unit CAPEX Blades k % Hub and pitch system including bearings k Load control, sensors and control system (PLC) k Gearbox k Mainbearing and main shaft arrangement k Transformer k Converter k Remaining electrical system (generator) k Structural Elements k Tower k Total CAPEX for turbine including tower Electrical site infrastructure k Civil works including foundation k Transport and installation k Total CAPEX for balance of plant Total CAPEX for onshore turbine k Annualized CAPEX OPEX Operational expenditure (0.012 /kwh) k % AEP Annual Energy Production MWh Cost of energy /kwh 0,049 0,040 82% kr/kwh 0,366 0,299 COE ratio CAPEX for Turbine including tower 56% 56% CAPEX for BoP 20% 19% OPEX 25% 25%

16 Selected recommendations Improved cooperation in the value chain, though Common verification- and validation methods (standardised test and measuring methods) Common set of tools (e.g. adjusted HALT/HASS/HAST/QALT or FMEA methods) Common terminology regarding function requirements (specification of functions) Common definitions by detailed technical requirements (technical specifications) Common methods for estimation, evaluation and documentation of reliability. Common ways of valuing functionality as a function of cost of energy

17

18

19 Thank you for your attention More info: windpower.org/da/forskning/megavind Jakob Lau Holst COO, Danish Wind Industry Association 27 th November 2012 Aerospace Spully Chain Seminar, Vestas Wind Systems, Aarhus