Norsk Hydro: Maintaining momentum in volatile markets
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1 Norsk Hydro: Maintaining momentum in volatile markets Pål Kildemo Head of Investor Relations (1)
2 Our agenda for value creation continues through 2015 EUR 130 million automotive investment in Germany to lift BiW capacity to 200,000 t/year Permanent closure of 180,000 t/year Kurri Kurri smelter in Australia New long-term power contracts of a total 2.7 TWh for Norwegian smelters Included on Dow Jones Sustainability Indices for 15 th time Record results and investment decision for Karmøy pilot* Record results Again, B&A delivers ~780 MNOK February 25 May 8 June 23 September 12 February 11 April April 30 June 13 July 3 October, annualized February 11 April 1 EUR 45 million recycling investment in Germany to reach 100,000 t/year UBC capacity Enova supports planned technology pilot at Karmøy with NOK 1.5 billion Announcement to take control of Søral aluminium plant in Norway Alumina production at Alunorte increased to 6.0 million t/year BoD proposed 33% Dividend increase Policy revised from 30 to 40% over the cycle Acquisition of World s most advanced sorting technology BiW = Body-in-White * Build decision requires sustainable power sourcing
3 (3) Market Developments
4 Aluminium s inherent qualities driving substitution driven demand Copper and steel both have to pave way for the metal of the future Global Body-in-White demand in thousand tonnes Significant substitution potential within HVAC&R CAGR 20% market mt % Potential market mt Source: CRU, Hydro Analysis (4)
5 Limited expected supply growth going forward World ex-china Thousand tonnes Supply Demand Supply development 2015 (million tonnes) Demand growth base case: ~3% Other ~0.4 Structural issues Ramp-up challenges Supply influences Few new projects India & other Asia Potential restarts and curtailments? India ~0.4 Potential additions ~0.5? Potential restarts Potential curtailments, including full year effects from 2014 ~0.5? E Source: CRU, Hydro Analysis (5)
6 Inventory reductions driven by primary curtailments In world ex-china Production less demand world ex-china Quarterly annualized* Inventory days World ex-china reported primary aluminium inventories Primary aluminium, in thousand tonnes Dec-08 Mar-10 Jun-11 Sep-12 Dec-13 Mar-15 0 Q1 05 Q3 07 Q1 10 Q3 12 Q1 15 World ex-china inventory days Source: CRU/Hydro *12 month rolling average ** CRU estimates (6)
7 Improved comp. adv. China Global primary aluminium market slightly oversupplied Chinese exports decline amid reduced metal advantage Production less demand (quarterly annualized)* mt primary aluminium Semis exports (monthly, kt) Comp. adv (USD/t) (1 000) (2 000) Jan-09 Apr-10 Jul-11 Oct-12 Jan-14 Mar-15 Semis exports (Left axis) Chinese competitive adv. downstream* (Right axis) Source: CRU/Hydro * Yearly rolling average of quarterly annualized production less demand (7) Source: CRU/Ecowin * Est. metal cost China versus Europe : LME cash + European duty-paid standard ingot premium China: SHFE cash + avg. local premium + freight export rebates (~13 %)
8 Decline in all-in ingot price partly offset by weak NOK Standard ingot premiums fall sharply Regional standard ingot premiums USD per tonne 600 All-in ingot aluminium price USD per tonne NOK per tonne Jan-08 Dec-08 Nov-09 Oct-10 Sep-11 Aug-12 Jul-13 Jun-14 May-15 US Mid West Japan Europe (duty-paid) Jan 11 May 11 LME cash Sep 11 Jan 12 May 12 Sep 12 Jan 13 LME Cash + Europe dutypaid NOK (RHS) May 13 Sep 13 Jan 14 May 14 Sep 14 Jan 15 LME cash + Europe duty paid May Source: Metal Bulletin, MW/MJP: Platts Source: Metal Bulletin, MW/MJP: Platts, Reuters Ecowin (8)
9 Russia Canada UAE India USA Australia Norway Brazil Bahrain Iceland South Africa Saudi Arabia Qatar Mozambique Germany Aluminium cost curve shifts down on USD appreciation Many aluminium-producing nations are also oil exporters Top 15 aluminium producers World ex-china Million tonnes; % of total 2014 primary aluminium production USD or pegged to USD USD appreciation Against currencies of major aluminium producers March14 - March-15 70% 60% 50% % % 20% 10% 0.0 0% Canada Australia Norway Brazil Russia Source: Thomson ONE, CRU, Hydro (9)
10 Resilient alumina prices, bauxite source diversification continues Platts alumina index (PAX) USD/mt Percent 20% 19% 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% Chinese bauxite imports by origin Million tonnes Aug 2010 Aug 2011 Aug 2012 Aug 2013 Aug % May e * PAX % of LME Indonesia Australia India Malaysia Other Pacific Atlantic Source: Platts, Ecowin, China Customs, * Based on actual Q annualized (10)
11 Hydro s aspiration for higher value creation (11)
12 (12)
13 Hydro improvement drive continues at full pace Sapa JV Energy Aspiration Total contribution from Hydro s improvement programs (excl. Sapa) Climb JV program From B to A 2011*-2014 USD 300 program CCIP II BNOK ** BNOK 1.5 * USD 300 from 2009 ** Real 2014 terms Realized improvement efforts is YTD Q314 annualized.
14 Significant improvements in margins in B&A, following operational issues of 2013 Bauxite & Alumina H 2013 Underlying EBITDA per mt (USD) Bauxite & Alumina H 2014 Underlying EBITDA per mt (USD) All figures based on public accounting data, not verified by Hydro. Data not adjusted for different accounting principles and non-specified underlying items. Hydro makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. The analyses are based on assumptions subject to uncertainty and therefore intended only for general comparisons across companies and should not be used to support any individual investment decision. All results are provided for informational purposes only. Adjustments for RTA og Hydro: EBITDA pr. ton alumina equivalent, other companies EBITDA pr. ton alumina produced. Bauxite to alumina factor: 2,4 (14)
15 Commercial Alumina Bauxite Additional improvements to be delivered and contracts to be repriced Bauxite and Alumina Improvement categories Increase productivity and rightsize organization Stabilize performance at nameplate capacity Improve logistics efficiency Increase productivity and rightsize organization Support production at nameplate capacity Improve product flow and minimize tailings Improvements in NOK million NOK 1 billion Index spot price exposure Base bauxite and alumina pricing on fundamentals Increase logistical flexibility and optimize scheduling Internal demand LME linked sales Index exposure (15)
16 Industry leading margin generation in Primary Metal Primary Metal 900 1H 2012 Underlying EBITDA per mt (USD) Primary Metal 900 2H 2014 Underlying EBITDA per mt (USD) All figures based on public accounting data, not verified by Hydro. Data not adjusted for different accounting principles and non-specified underlying items. Hydro makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. The analyses are based on assumptions subject to uncertainty and therefore intended only for general comparisons across companies and should not be used to support any individual investment decision. All results are provided for informational purposes only. Hydro figures includes Primary Metal, Metal Markets and attributable share of EBITDA and production in Qatalum. (16)
17 Research and development allows world leading improvement programs Primary Metal Fully-owned smelters increasing output from existing lines, gaining productivity Production development in Norwegian fully-owned smelters, indexed from ~ mt E2014 ~ mt 1 Technology and competence driven volume growth Larger anodes New cathode technology Improved process control system Modeling tools AMPS (17)
18 Step-change innovation keeps us one step ahead of the competition Rolled Products (18)
19 Earning improvements on the back of restructuring and strong US demand Sapa Underlying EBITDA development. Rolling 4 quarters* NOK Million 600 Sapa and Ford F-150, a multi-plant delivery to the World s most selling vehicle Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q * Q to Q containing pro-forma figures for Q1-Q (19)
20 Increasing our cash returns to shareholders Hydro compared to its aluminium peers Dividend yield in percentage, based on year-end share-prices % 4.00% NOK % 4.00% 5.10% NOK % 4.00% NOK % 4.00% NOK % 4.00% NOK % 2.49% 3.00% 2.70% 3.00% 2.70% 3.00% 2.77% 3.00% 2.36% 2.00% 1.80% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 1.39% 1.38% 1.40% 1.00% 0.78% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.10% 1.00% 0.76% 0.19% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Source: Thomson ONE Hydro Peers (20)
21 Several alternatives for capital allocation Strong balance sheet and credit grade rating are high priorities in cyclical industry Maintain investment-grade rating Currently: BBB (S&P), Baa2 (Moody s), both with stable outlook Competitive access to capital important for Hydro s business model Financial ratio ambitions over business cycle Funds from operations to net adjusted debt > 40% Net adjusted debt to equity < 0.55 Funds from operations determined balance sheet structure over the last years (21)
22 (22)
23 High-grading portfolio and fully utilizing existing assets Bauxite & Alumina Energy Primary Aluminium Rolled Products Move beyond nameplate capacity Mature captive growth opportunities Enhance position in high-margin segments Expand automotive capacity to 200,000 t/yr by end-2016 Further improve bauxite positions Mature CAP project and Paragominas expansion for when time is right Raise income potential from market operations Leverage value from Nordic power surplus Realize 100,000 tonnes creep in fully-owned smelters Extend technology lead with Karmøy pilot plant Mature Qatalum 2 and Alouette expansion for when time is right Increase recycling of postconsumed scrap above 250,000 t/year* Build positions and lift margins through technology leadership and innovation * Includes recycling ambition in Primary Metal (23)
24 (24)
25 The industry s most ambitious climate strategy: Carbon-neutral by 2020 Supported by the three pillars of Hydro s technology strategy Energy and primary production Reduce emissions, increase efficiency Aluminium in use Maximize userphase benefits End-of-life Increase recycling, back to the loop (25)
26 Hydro 2015 Lifting performance and shareholder value Delivering on improvement programs Targeting high-margin markets and maturing growth portfolio, while maintaining tight capital discipline Increasing energy-efficiency and lowering climate footprint (26)
27 (27)
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