Nivesh Currency. From December, Weekly Change & Technical levels. Currency against U.S. dollar. Foreign exchange reserves, in billion $

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1 Nivesh Currency From December, 2016 Important Highlights BOJ kept its benchmark lending rate negative and unchanged at - 0.1% and its 10-year Japanese government bond yield target at around zero. It also said it would continue to buy Japanese government bonds at the previous pace of around 80 trillion yen a year. U.S. gross domestic product rose by 3.5% in the third quarter, reflecting an upward revision from the previously reported 3.2% increase. U.S. unemployment claims edged up to 275,000 for the week ended Dec 17. This was up 21,000 from the previous week's unrevised total of 254,000. U.K. current account balance fell to a seasonally adjusted -25.5B, from B in the preceding month whose figure was revised up from B. German business climate rose to 111.0, from in the preceding month. U.K. Public Sector Net Borrowing rose to a seasonally adjusted 12.21B, from 4.32B in the preceding quarter whose figure was revised up from 4.30B. U.S. CB Leading Index remained unchanged at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.0%, from 0.1% in the preceding month. U.K. Office for National Statistics said that GDP rose to 0.6%, from 0.5% in the preceding quarter. U.K. current account balance fell to a seasonally adjusted -25.5B, from B in the preceding month whose figure was revised up from B. Weekly Change & Technical levels NSE/BSE/MSEI December Future Currency LTP Wk % Pair Change R1 R2 Pivot S1 S2 USDINR EURINR GBPINR JPYINR Currency against U.S. dollar Currency LTP Wk % Pair Change R1 R2 S1 S2 Trend DOLLAR INDEX Bullish EURUSD Recovery GBPUSD Bearish USDJPY Bearish Foreign exchange reserves, in billion $ December 16, 2016 Change in$ (Wk) Total Reserves $360.60bln Down $2.23bln Seema Yadav Research Analyst Tel: seema.yadav@indianivesh.in IndiaNivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai Tel: (022)

2 USD-INR January Future LTP Sell around 1 Target 2 Target Stop loss Dollar/Rupee had neutral to slightly negative move last week; pair retraced from the weekly high as some foreign banks including Bank of America undertook selling activities following to the weakness in the dollar index. However trading range remained subdued and after hitting a low of settled at levels. Technical, weekly price action resulted in formation of doji candle stick which is indicating for relatively neutral to volatile trend. On the Upside, will act as an strong resistance and pair would need to break it in order to test , else any rise towards could attract temporary correction before next any bullish move. Dollar Index Dollar retraced from the weekly high , and tested before closing at on the back of profit booking after hitting 14- year highs. Greenback has gained sharply in sessions following Federal Reserve's December monetary policy meet where the US central bank raised rates and hinted at three more rate increases in Trading range remained neutral ahead of year-end holidays. Technically, weekly price action resulted in formation of shooting star candle stick which is indicating for temporary correction in near term. That would be limited towards as long term trend still positive following to on strong breakout of six month consolidation. On the other hand, massive resistance is seen at and dollar index would need to break it in order to test

3 EUR-INR January Future LTP Sell below 1 Target 2 Target Stop loss After weakens towards in start of the week, EURINR saw slightly pullback towards levels as investors covered their short positions amid lack of fresh triggers. Pair saw little fight between short-covering pressure and political anxiety. Sell strategy given below was initiated but EURINR failed to hit predicted level of Technical, weekly price action resulted in formation of high wave candle stick which is indicating for momentum recovery before next bearish move. However, there is crucial support and break below could extend the recent bearish trend towards GBP-INR January Future LTP Sell below 1 Target 2 Target Stop loss GBPINR extended its recent downtrend trend and tested lowest levels after 12 November Technically, as per the sell strategy given below was successful and pair was able to hit both predicted levels and Now the three consecutive weekly fall is forming three crows candle stick pattern which yet indicating for new bearishness in GBPINR. This week, a break below will extend the recent loss and pair may test

4 JPY-INR January Future LTP Buy above 1 Target 2 Target Stop loss Yen snapped two-day gains against the dollar post the release of the Bank of Japan monetary policy. Bank of Japan raised its assessment of the economy for the first time since May 2015, closing a turbulent year on a positive note as it stood pat on monetary policy amid lackluster trading in global financial markets ahead of year-end holidays. Technically, on the weekly price action resulted in formation of bullish harami candle stick pattern which creating probability for short term recovery. On the other hand, crucial support is seen at and below this level only will expect to test High Impact Economic Data & Events Schedule during the week Date Time Currency Economic Indicators Forecast Previous Impact :00am JPY Household Spending y/y 0.20% -0.40% Positive JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y -0.40% -0.40% Neutral 8:30pm USD CB Consumer Confidence Positive :30pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m 0.60% 0.10% Positive :30pm EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 4.40% 4.40% Neutral 7:00pm USD Unemployment Claims 277K 275K Negative :30pm EUR Spanish Flash CPI y/y 0.90% 0.70% Positive 8:15pm USD Chicago PMI Negative Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar. Technical Chart Source: Tickerplant *DOS- Depends on statement. DOV- Depends on Votes. DOR- Depends on Report.

5 IndiaNivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai Tel: (022) / Fax: (022) research@indianivesh.in Website: Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by IndiaNivesh Securities Limited (IndiaNivesh), for use by the recipient as information only and is not for circulation or public distribution. This document is not to be reproduced, copied, redistributed or published or made available to others, in whole or in part without prior permission from us. This document is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any currency pair. Recipients of this document should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide for future performance and price and value of investments can go up or down. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will depend upon the recipients particular circumstances. The information contained in this document has been obtained from sources that are considered as reliable though its accuracy or Completeness has not been verified by IndiaNivesh independently and cannot be guaranteed. Neither IndiaNivesh nor any of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accepts any responsibility or whatever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission or for any liability arising from the use of this document. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. IndiaNivesh directors and its clients may have holdings in the currencies mentioned in the report. To unsubscribe please send a mail to mail@indianivesh.in