RAYMOND JAMES RAYMOND JAMES. -Technical Chart Book -

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1 Technical Strategy Team - Technical Chart Book RAYMOND JAMES -Technical Chart Book - Providing Investors with timely data and technical observations on a broad spectrum of asset classes. Technical Strategy Team J. Michael Gibbs Director of Portfolio & Technical Strategy David Hydrick Portfolio & Technical Strategy Technical Analysis Page

2 Table of Contents S&P 500 Pages 3-16 Long Term Chart 4 5 year Chart Trend Channel 5 Chart Support / Resistance 6 Average returns / Long Term vs. Last 10 yrs. 7 PE Chart 8 S&P 500 Revenues vs. S&P 500 Price 9 Federal Reserve QE & Fed s Balance Sheet Major Mkt. Series Various Indicators: Dow Theory, Semiconductors, Copper, VIX, and NYSE Short Interest S&P Sectors Energy Materials Industrials Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Health Care Financials Information Technology Telecommunication Services Utilities S&P Sectors / Relative Strength vs. S&P Energy Materials Industrials Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Health Care Financials Information Technology Telecommunication Services Utilities S&P Style: Growth vs. Value S&P Composite 1500 Growth vs. Value S&P 500 Growth vs. Value S&P Mid Cap 400 Growth vs. Value S&P Small Cap 600 Growth vs. Value International Markets US Dollar, Interest Rates, Commodities Economic Charts Page

3 U.S. Equity Markets The S&P Page

4 S&P500 IS EXHIBITING MANY CHARACTERISTICS OF PREVIOUS PERIODS OF CONSOLIDATION During the Great Depression, the S&P500 s upper area of consolidation hovered around 18. There was a mid-cycle low point in In the 1970s, the S&P500 s upper area of consolidation was around the 100 mark. There was a mid-cycle low in April 2013, the S&P500 moved through overhead resistance, just above We may have seen a mid-cycle low during the Credit-Crisis. The Credit-Crisis low is very similar to the 1970s. It occurred 102 months from the March 2000 highs. The 1970s mid-cycle low occurred 104 months from the previous bull market high. 4 Page

5 +16.19% % % % % % % % % -9.84% -6.1% -7.52% % % Support ~ % % % % % Credit Crisis Low to Post Credit Crisis High S&P % Credit Crisis S&P % % 5 Page

6 % % (-5.02%) (-6.08%) (-14.48%) 6 Page

7 ***These PE figures are compiled by FactSet and may vary from other data vendors by calculation methods. 7 Page

8 8 Page

9 9 Page

10 The Federal Reserve: QE and The Fed s Balance Sheet 10 Page

11 11 Page

12 12 Page

13 13 Page

14 14 Page

15 U.S. Major Markets Series 15 Page

16 16 Page

17 17 Page

18 Dow Theory: Transports vs. Industrials Semiconductors vs. the S&P 500 Copper vs. the S&P 500 Sentiment: VIX vs. S&P 500 Sentiment: Short Interest 18 Page

19 Industrials & Transports 1 Year 19 Page

20 S&P 500 and Semiconductors 5 year view 20 Page

21 Taking the Market s pulse with Dr. Copper. Copper - 6 month chart 21 Page

22 22 Page

23 23 Page

24 S&P 500 Sector Series S&P 500 Sectors: Energy Materials Industrials Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Health Care Financials Information Technology Telecommunication Services Utilities 24 Page

25 25 Page

26 26 Page

27 27 Page

28 S&P 500 Sector Series Relative Strength S&P 500 Sectors: Energy Materials Industrials Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Health Care Financials Information Technology Telecommunication Services Utilities 28 Page

29 29 Page

30 30 Page

31 31 Page

32 Style analysis: Growth vs. Value S&P Composite 1500 Growth vs. Value S&P 500 Growth vs. Value S&P Mid Cap 400 Growth vs. Value S&P Small Cap 600 Growth vs. Value 32 Page

33 33 Page

34 International Markets Series 34 Page

35 35 Page

36 36 Page

37 37 Page

38 China s Shanghai Composite Index 38 Page

39 39 Page

40 40 Page

41 The U.S. Dollar, Interest Rates, Commodities, etc. 41 Page

42 42 Page

43 43 Page

44 10 year Weekly chart 44 Page

45 45 Page

46 46 Page

47 47 Page

48 Economic Data 48 Page

49 49 Page

50 50 Page

51 51 Page

52 52 Page

53 Past performance does not guarantee future results. There is no assurance these trends will continue. The market value of securities fluctuates and you may incur a profit or a loss. This analysis does not include transaction costs and tax considerations. If included these costs would reduce an investor s return. Material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation. It has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy is not guaranteed. International investing involves additional risks such as currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic instability. These risks are greater in emerging markets. Commodities are generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Commodities are volatile investments and should only form a small part of a diversified portfolio. There may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. MACD The moving average convergence divergence is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of prices. The MACD is typically calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the "signal line", is then plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy and sell signals. MACD Signal - Signal line crossovers are the most common MACD signals. A bullish crossover occurs when the MACD turns up and crosses above the signal line. A bearish crossover occurs when the MACD turns down and crosses below the signal line. MACD Divergence - Divergences form when the MACD diverges from the price action of the underlying security. A bullish divergence forms when a security records a lower low and the MACD forms a higher low. A bearish divergence forms when a security records a higher high and the MACD forms a lower high. S&P The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NASDAQ Composite Index The NASDAQ Composite Index is a broad-based capitalization-weighted index of stocks in all three NASDAQ tiers: Global Select, Global Market and Capital Market. DJ Industrial Average The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue-chip stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry. Russell The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 8% of the Russell 3000 total market capitalization. DJ Transportation - The Dow Jones Transportation Average is a price-weighted average of 20 U.S. transportation stocks. PHLX / Semiconductor - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index comprised of companies that are involved in the design, distribution, manufacturing, and sale of semiconductors. 53 Page

54 CBOE Market Volatility Index - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index reflects a market estimate of future volatility, based on the weighted average of the implied volatilities for a wide range of strike prices. MSCI The World Index - The MSCI World Index is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets. It tracks 23 countries including the United States. Spain IBEX 35 - The IBEX 35 is the official index of the Spanish Continuous Market. The index is comprised of the 35 most liquid stocks traded on the Continuous market. Italy FTSE MIB - The FTSE MIB Index is comprised of the 40 most liquid stocks traded on the Borsa Italiana. U.S. Dollar per Euro The Euro US Dollar Spot Exchange Rate is the price of 1 EUR in USD 1. The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. It is quoted in the # of USD per euro. 2. The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America. The spot rate is by convention always equal to one. This is the value against which all other spot rates are measured. Germany DAX (TR) - The German Stock Index is a total return index of 30 selected German blue chip stocks traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. France CAC 40 - The CAC 40 Index is a narrow-based, modified capitalization-weighted index of 40 companies listed on the Paris Bourse. FTSE 100 Index - The FTSE 100 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of the 100 most highly capitalized companies traded on the London Stock Exchange. S&P/TSX Composite - The S&P/TSX, the Toronto Stock Exchange Composite Index, is a capitalization-weighted index designed to measure market activity of stocks listed on the TSX. Japan Nikkei The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. S&P ASX 200 / Australia - The S&P/ASX 200 measures the performance of the 200 largest index-eligible stocks listed on the ASX by float-adjusted market capitalization. KOSPI Composite Index / Korea - The KOSPI Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges. FTSE Xinhua China 25 - The FTSE China 25 Index includes the top 25 Chinese companies by total market cap. Global 10Y Treasury Yields - The average yields of 10 year government bonds for the countries of: The United States of America, Japan, United Kingdom, Germany, and Canada. French 10 Year Yield - German 10 Year Yield The difference between average yield of France s 10 year government bond and German s 10 year government bond. 54 Page

55 Spanish 10 Year Yield - German 10 Year Yield - The difference between average yield of Spain s 10 year government bond and German s 10 year government bond. Spanish & Italian 10 Year Yields The average yields of Spanish and Italian 10 year government bonds. QE or Quantitative Easing is unconventional monetary policy used by central banks to stimulate the national economy when conventional monetary policy has become ineffective Price Earnings Ratio (P/E) is the price of the stock divided by its earnings per share. Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion of a set of data from its mean. The more spread apart the data, the higher the deviation. Fibonacci retracement is a term used in technical analysis that refers to potential areas of support (price stops going lower) or resistance (price stops going higher). Fibonacci retracement use horizontal lines to indicate areas of support or resistance at the key Fibonacci levels before it continues in the original direction. These levels are created by drawing a trendline between two extreme points and then dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%. A moving average is an indicator frequently used in technical analysis showing the average value of a security s price over a set period. Moving averages are generally used to measure momentum and define areas of possible support and resistance. The S&P Composite 1500 is a investable U.S. equity benchmark that combines three leading indices, the S&P 500, the S&) MidCap 400, and the S&) SmallCap 600 to cover approximately 90% of the U.S. market capitalization. The S&P MidCap 400 provides investors with a benchmark for mid-sized companies. The index covers over 7% of the U.S. equity market and seeks to rema8in an accurate measure of mid-sized companies, reflection the risk and return characteristics of the broader mid-cap universe on an on-going basis. The S&P SmallCap 600 covers approximately 3% of the domestic equities market Measuring the small cap segment of the market that is typically renowned for poor trading liquidity and financial instability, the index is designed to be an efficient portfolio of companies that meet specific inclusion criteria to ensure that they are investable and finically viable. The SSE Composite Index is an index of all stocks (A shares and B shares) that are traded in the Shanghai Stock Exchange. 55 Page

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