Index Return Monitor. September 9, Little Change In August

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1 Index Return Monitor September 9, 2016 BRAD BROWN, CFA & ALLAN BISHOP INVESTMENT STRATEGY GROUP See Legal Disclaimer and Important Disclosure Footnotes at the end of this report for disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest. The Slow Days Of Summer After what has been a somewhat turbulent summer so far, August was relatively subdued with little moves and tight trading ranges on the major indices. The major North American indices were all relatively flat with the Nasdaq Composite Index leading the way, up 1%. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil regained its footing after selling off throughout the summer and beginning August below US$40/barrel, its lowest level since April By midmonth, speculation about a cut to oil output by Russia and Saudi Arabia sent the commodity higher toward US$50/barrel. The WTI rally and strong second quarter results from the Canadian banks pushed S&P/TSX Composite Index up, offsetting a setback in base and precious metals. August kicked off with a strong U.S. employment number as July non-farm payrolls significantly topped economists expectations. The U.S. consumer also showed signs of life as consumer spending and confidence remained solid. U.S. equities started August by trending higher but gave back the early gains after comments from U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) chairwoman Janet Yellen hinted that the case for a rate hike had strengthened and that she saw positive growth in the U.S. economy. Along with relatively good earnings, this rhetoric increased the market s implied probability of a rate hike September s probability was 36% and December s 60% as of August 31 st. Investors shifted towards cyclicals, namely bank stocks and away from defensives, bond-like stocks. European equities moved higher after positive economic data pointed to a continued recovery in the eurozone. In Asia, Japanese equities edged higher following the release of details surrounding the government s fiscal spending package. In the rest of the far east, equities also rallied on investors expectations of more monetary stimulus. Global investors increased their allocations towards the emerging markets in search of higher yielding assets. After two very strong consecutive months of employment gains in June and July, August non-farm payrolls numbers, released on September 2 nd, were lower than expected. This was the final important data point before the September Fed meeting. The headline number was not the only disappointment as wage growth slowed and manufacturing payrolls declined. While a December rate hike remains very much on the table, the sub-par September jobs figures have lowered expectations of a September hike. Until that point, a strong jobs number would have provided a strong case for a September hike. Historically, August is a month of abnormal employment numbers which have a habit of being revised upwards afterwards. With the upcoming U.S. election and the recent weakness in the ISM manufacturing number, which was in contractionary territory, it seems doubtful that the Fed will want to raise rates on September 21 st. Bellwether Indices Price Price Performance (% Change) S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX 14, S&P 500 INDEX 2, DOW JONES INDUS. AVG 18, NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 5, Little Change In August 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% S&P 500 TSX

2 U.S. Yields Rise Slightly And Canadian Unchanged U.S. yields rose slightly while Canadian yields are basically unchanged in August. Uncertainty of the U.S. Federal Reserve s next rate move have left the markets with a lack of direction. Concerns regarding long-term growth remains a factor in the long-end of the curve. Canada & U.S. Yields Yield as of 31-Aug-16-1 mo -3 mo -6 mo -12 mo 3-month Canada T-Bills Canada 5yr Notes Canada 10yr Notes Canada 30yr Bonds US 3-month T-Bills US 5yr Treasuries US 10yr Treasuries US 30yr Treasuries Euro and Loonie Slip Versus USD The U.S. dollar gained ground in August as the possibility of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve increased. A Federal Reserve surprise interest-rate hike in September would break the U.S. central bank s tradition of no tightening in the months leading into an election. Currency Moves Level Change Canadian vs. U.S. Dollar % -0.1% 3.3% 0.3% 5.6% Euro vs. Canadian Dollar % 0.3% -0.7% -0.7% -2.7% Euro vs. U.S. Dollar % 0.2% 2.6% -0.5% 2.7% U.S. Dollar vs. Japanese Yen % -6.6% -8.2% -14.7% -14.0% Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar % 0.1% -2.2% 0.2% -2.6% Commodities Soften With The Exception of Oil Base and precious metals continued to lose ground in August. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) rallied throughout August, on rumours about an output freeze by Russia and Saudi Arabia and moderating North American production. Commodities Level Price as of 31-Aug-16-1 mo -3 mo -6 mo -12 mo YTD % RJ CRB Commodity Index Gold Spot US$/oz Silver Spot US$/oz Brent Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate Oil NYMEX Natural gas Lumber Copper 3-month Nickel 3-month Aluminum 3-month Zinc 3-month September 9, 2016

3 Nasdaq And Emerging Markets Outperform Other Indices The Nasdaq and MSCI Emerging markets were the best performing major equity indices in Canadian dollar terms. August was relatively subdued with little moves and a tight trading ranges on the major indices. The lack luster market was looking for direction from the Federal Reserve on interest rates. Global investors increased their allocations towards the emerging markets in search of higher yielding assets. Index Returns In Canadian Dollars Price Performance % Change 1 mo 3 mo 6 mo 12 mo YTD S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX S&P 500 INDEX DOW JONES INDUS. AVG NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX BLOOMBERG EUROPEAN MSCI EAFE MSCI WORLD MSCI EMERGING MARKETS , as of August 31, 2016 Aggressive Growth Mandates Outperform In August Mandates with higher equity exposure outperformed bondheavy mandates as investors shifted towards riskier assets looking for growth and yield. Long-Term Strategic Asset Allocation Investor Profiles (All In C$) Performance % Change (Global Equity/Cdn. Equity/Bonds/Cash) 1 mo 3 mo 6 mo 12 mo YTD CAPITAL PRESERVATION (5 / 15 / 65 / 20) INCOME (12 / 18 / 60 / 10) INCOME & GROWTH (25 / 20 / 50 / 5) GROWTH (45 / 20 / 35 / 0) AGGRESSIVE GROWTH (65 / 20 / 15 / 0) and FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets, as of August 31, 2016 TSX Outperforms The S&P On A Total Return Basis In August, on a total return basis, Canadian equities once again outperformed U.S. equities. The drop in base and precious metal stocks was offset by a strong recovery in crude oil prices and a solid earnings season for the Canadian banks. Asset Class Returns Total Return % Change Index Yield % 1 mo 3 mo 6 mo 12 mo YTD 31-Aug-16 EQUITIES S&P/TSX Composite Total Return S&P 500 Total Return BONDS FTSE TMX Canada Bond Universe Index FTSE TMX Canada Long Term Index FTSE TMX Canada Mid Term Index FTSE TMX Canada Short Term Index and FTSE TMX Global Debt Capital Markets, as of August 31, September 9, 2016

4 Energy & Health Care Recover The energy sector picked up in the month of August as speculation regarding a potential output freeze by major international producers bolstered investor confidence. Health Care also saw some significant gains as the sector s largest constituent, Valeant Pharmaceuticals, had a stream of constructive events including a positive reaction to its Q2 earnings report as the company reaffirmed its guidance and the appointment of a new CFO. Base and precious metal stocks slipped as the underlying commodities sold off. S&P/TSX Sector Returns Index Price Index Price Performance % Change Weight 30-Aug-16 1 mo 3 mo 6 mo 12 mo YTD GICS Sectors Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Integrated O&G O&G Expl. & Prod Pipeline Financials Banks Insurance REITs Health Care Industrials Info Technology Materials Gold Base Metals Fertilizer Telecom Services Utilities REIT Returns REIT Index REIT Total Return Index Hang Seng Outperforms Hong Kong s Hang Seng outperformed all other international indices in the month of August as investors bought equities in anticipation of further monetary stimulus. The German Dax also had a strong month as economic data in the eurozone was positive comforting investors and alleviating much of the initial fear of spillover from Brexit. International Indices Price Index Price Performance % Change Bloomberg Euro FTSE Eurotop 100 2, England FTSE 100 6, German DAX 10, French CAC 40 4, MSCI World 1, MSCI EAFE 1, MSCI Emerging Mkts Japan Nikkei , Hong Kong Hang Seng 22, Australia S&P/ASX 200 5, Taiwan Weighted 9, India Sensex 30 Index 28, September 9, 2016

5 Canadian Small Cap Stocks Lose Ground Canadian small caps fell as both base and precious metal prices dropped. The resource-heavy TSX Small Cap Index and Venture Composite Index suffered as a result, losing 3.7% and 1.3%, respectively. Small Cap Stocks Versus Large Cap Stocks Price Index Price Performance % Change CANADA S&P/TSX 60 INDEX S&P/TSX MIDCAP INDEX S&P/TSX SMALLCAP INDEX S&P/TSX VENTURE COMP INDEX U.S. S&P 100 INDEX S&P 500 INDEX RUSSELL 1000 INDEX S&P 400 MIDCAP INDEX S&P 600 SMALLCAP INDEX RUSSELL 2000 INDEX U.S. Style Indices Look Mixed In August Canadian growth outperformed value in August. Meanwhile, in the U.S., the style indices were more mixed. The Russell 2000 Value Index outperformed its growth counterpart while the S&P 600 Barra Growth Index outperformed its value counterpart. Style Indices Price Index Price Performance % Change GROWTH DJ CANADA GROWTH INDEX S&P BARRA GROWTH INDEX RUSSELL 1000 GROWTH INDX S&P MID 400 BARRA GROWTH S&P 600 BARRA GROWTH INDX RUSSELL 2000 GROWTH INDX VALUE DJ CANADA VALUE INDEX S&P BARRA VALUE INDEX RUSSELL 1000 VALUE INDX S&P MID 400 BARRA VALUE S&P 600 BARRA VALUE INDX RUSSELL 2000 VALUE INDX September 9, 2016

6 Long-Term Returns Long-Term Returns (As Of 31-Aug-16) Return % Change (Annualized) 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 5 yr 10 yr 15 yr 20 yr S&P/TSX Composite (price) S&P/TSX Composite Total Return S&P/TSX Income Trust Total Return na na na Dow Jones Industrial Average Dow Jones Industrial Avg TR na S&P S&P 500 Total Return na Nasdaq Comp FTSE 100 Index na German DAX France CAC na Japan Nikkei MSCI World MSCI (EMU) Europe na MSCI Emerging Markets na MSCI Emerging Markets Total Return na na MSCI EAFE MSCI EAFE Total Return na na MSCI Far East , CIBC World Markets Long-Term Returns In Canadian Dollars (As Of 31-Aug-16) Return % Change (Annualized) 1 yr 2 yr 3 yr 5 yr 10 yr 15 yr 20 yr S&P/TSX Composite (price) S&P/TSX Composite Total Return Dow Jones Industrial Average (in C$) Dow Jones Industrial Avg. Tot. Ret. (in C$) na S&P 500 (in C$) S&P 500 Total Return (in C$) na Russell 2000 (in C$) Nasdaq Comp (in C$) MSCI World (in C$) MSCI EMU Europe (in C$) na MSCI Emerging Markets (in C$) na MSCI EAFE (in C$) MSCI Far East (in C$) , CIBC World Markets, Canadian Dollar-based returns 6 September 9, 2016

7 Disclosures And Disclaimers Companies Mentioned In This Report That Are Covered By CIBC World Markets Valeant Pharmaceuticals International (2a, 2e, 2g, 4a, 4b, 7, 9) (VRX-NYSE, US$16.00, Sector Underperformer) Key To Important Disclosure Footnotes: 1 CIBC World Markets Corp. makes a market in the securities of this company. 2a This company is a client for which a CIBC World Markets company has performed investment banking services in the past 12 months. 2b CIBC World Markets Corp. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for this company in the past 12 months. 2c CIBC World Markets Inc. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for this company in the past 12 months. 2d CIBC World Markets Corp. has received compensation for investment banking services from this company in the past 12 months. 2e CIBC World Markets Inc. has received compensation for investment banking services from this company in the past 12 months. 2f CIBC World Markets Corp. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next 3 months. 2g CIBC World Markets Inc. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next 3 months. 3a This company is a client for which a CIBC World Markets company has performed non-investment banking, securities-related services in the past 12 months. 3b CIBC World Markets Corp. has received compensation for non-investment banking, securities-related services from this company in the past 12 months. 3c CIBC World Markets Inc. has received compensation for non-investment banking, securities-related services from this company in the past 12 months. 4a This company is a client for which a CIBC World Markets company has performed non-investment banking, non-securities-related services in the past 12 months. 4b CIBC World Markets Corp. has received compensation for non-investment banking, non-securities-related services from this company in the past 12 months. 4c CIBC World Markets Inc. has received compensation for non-investment banking, non-securities-related services from this company in the past 12 months. 5a The CIBC World Markets Corp. analyst(s) who covers this company also has a long position in its common equity securities. 5b A member of the household of a CIBC World Markets Corp. research analyst who covers this company has a long position in the common equity securities of this company. 6a The CIBC World Markets Inc. fundamental analyst(s) who covers this company also has a long position in its common equity securities. 6b A member of the household of a CIBC World Markets Inc. fundamental research analyst who covers this company has a long position in the common equity securities of this company. 6c One or more members of Investment Strategy Group who was involved in the preparation of this report, and/or a member of their household(s), has a long position in the common equity securities of this company. 7 CIBC World Markets Corp., CIBC World Markets Inc., and their affiliates, in the aggregate, beneficially own 1% or more of a class of equity securities issued by this company. 8 A partner, director or officer of CIBC World Markets Inc. or any analyst involved in the preparation of this research report has provided services to this company for remuneration in the past 12 months. 9 A senior executive member or director of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce ("CIBC"), the parent company to CIBC World Markets Inc. and CIBC World Markets Corp., or a member of his/her household is an officer, director or advisory board member of this company or one of its subsidiaries. 10 Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce ("CIBC"), the parent company to CIBC World Markets Inc. and CIBC World Markets Corp., has a significant credit relationship with this company. 11 The equity securities of this company are restricted voting shares. 12 The equity securities of this company are subordinate voting shares. 13 The equity securities of this company are non-voting shares. 14 The equity securities of this company are limited voting shares. CIBC World Markets Research Rating System Abbreviation Rating Description Stock Ratings SO Sector Outperformer Stock is expected to outperform the sector during the next months. SP Sector Performer Stock is expected to perform in line with the sector during the next months. SU Sector Underperformer Stock is expected to underperform the sector during the next months. NR Not Rated CIBC does not maintain an investment recommendation on the stock. R Restricted CIBC World Markets is restricted*** from rating the stock. Sector Weightings** O Overweight Sector is expected to outperform the broader market averages. M Market Weight Sector is expected to equal the performance of the broader market averages. U Underweight Sector is expected to underperform the broader market averages. NA None Sector rating is not applicable. **Broader market averages refer to the S&P 500 in the U.S. and the S&P/TSX Composite in Canada. "Speculative" indicates that an investment in this security involves a high amount of risk due to volatility and/or liquidity issues. ***Restricted due to a potential conflict of interest. "CC" indicates Commencement of Coverage. The analyst named started covering the security on the date specified. 7 September 9, 2016

8 Disclosures And Disclaimers This report is issued and approved for distribution to clients in Canada by registered representatives of CIBC Wood Gundy, a division of CIBC World Markets Inc., a subsidiary of CIBC, Member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund and Member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada, and by its affiliates via their registered representatives. This report is not authorized for distribution in the United States. This document and any of the products and information contained herein are not intended for the use of private investors in the United Kingdom. This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such offer or solicitation would be prohibited. The securities mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all types of investors. This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or specific needs of any particular client of CIBC Wood Gundy. Recipients should consider this report as only a single factor in making an investment decision and should not rely solely on investment recommendations contained herein, if any, as a substitution for the exercise of independent judgment of the merits and risks of investments. CIBC Wood Gundy suggests that, prior to making an investment decision with respect to any security recommended in this report; the recipient should contact one of our client advisers in the recipient s jurisdiction to discuss the recipient s particular circumstances. Non-client recipients of this report should consult with an independent financial advisor prior to making any investment decision based on this report or for any necessary explanation of its contents. CIBC Wood Gundy will not treat non-client recipients as its clients by virtue of their receiving this report. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance of any security mentioned in this report. Information, opinions and statistical data contained in this report were obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but CIBC Wood Gundy does not represent that any such information, opinion or statistical data is accurate or complete (with the exception of information contained in the Important Disclosures section of this report provided by CIBC World Markets or individual research analysts), and they should not be relied upon as such. All estimates, opinions and recommendations expressed herein constitute judgments as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this report constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice. Since the levels and bases of taxation can change, any reference in this report to the impact of taxation should not be construed as offering tax advice on the tax consequences of investments. As with any investment having potential tax implications, clients should consult with their own independent tax adviser CIBC World Markets Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized use, distribution, duplication or disclosure without the prior written permission of CIBC World Markets is prohibited by law and may result in prosecution. 8 September 9, 2016