The Real Economic Recovery has Finally Stood Up

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1 The Real Economic Recovery has Finally Stood Up Mark Partridge Presented at OSU VP Economic Outlook December 3, 212 Swank Chair in Rural-Urban Policy Department of Agricultural, Environmental & Development Economics Ohio State University Extension

2 Introduction I have been more pessimistic than the consensus on economic growth since 26. Unfortunately, my pessimistic predictions have been quite accurate. I now think we may have some positive surprises and that the US performance is not as bad as might be thought. Financial crises take a long time to recover. Alternatively, the New Normal is that the boom of the 199s is long over. Growth will be more restrained for now. 2

3 Introduction What am I going to do today: 1. Provide some idea of where we are currently both nationally and in Ohio. 2. Discuss some forecasts by OECD, IMF, and NABE to give a feel for the current consensus. 3. Discuss how the US stacks up compared to other countries. 3

4 Introduction 4. Describe the important role of housing real estate in the forecasts and in household behavior. 5. Discuss the broad-based nature of the current economic expansion (good) and show some examples of urban legends in what is driving the economy. 4

5 Year over Year U.S. Employment Growth National Employment Growth Percent Change in Employment

6 U.S. Employment Growth 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% 6 Percent Growth Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Year over Year Employment Growth

7 Ohio Employment Growth 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% 7 Percent Growth Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Year over Year Employment Growth

8 Forecasts National Assoc. of Business Economists October 212 Median Consensus Outlook: tepid They expect real GDP to increase 1.9% this year, 2.4% in 213, accelerating to a 3% pace by the end of the year. Job growth will continue at about 155, a month. (by no means a boom) Housing starts are expected to increase 23% in 212 and 13% in

9 Forecasts IMF October 212 World Economic Outlook is 2.2% in 212 and 2.1% in 213. By comparison, they see all advanced economies growing 1.3% and then 1.5%. 9

10 OECD OCTOBER 212 FORECAST 1

11 Comparison with the rest of the world. 11

12 OECD ActiveCharts 12

13 OECD ActiveCharts 13

14 Downside risks to forecast Fiscal cliff is about 5% of GDP but I am not overly worried. The incentives are so strong for both parties to act. Euro crisis remains problematic. The real problem is not Greece or Portugal (etc) and austerity, the real problem is reforming the Euro so that it is a credible political union, not a poorly designed currency union. Without the Euro, (say) Greece would have cut the budget, lowered interest rates, and depreciated the currency and their economy would have adjusted. 14

15 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October

16 S.A. Monthly Housing Starts on an Annual Basis 2,5 Monthly Housing Starts 2, 1,5 1, 5 16 Thousands Jan 25 Jun 25 Nov 25 Apr 26 Sep 26 Feb 27 Jul 27 Dec 27 May 28 Oct 28 Mar 29 Aug 29 Jan 21 Jun 21 Nov 21 Apr 211 Sep 211 Feb 212 Jul 212

17 Industry level decomposition Good news is the broad based nature of economic growth. Another factoid is some urban legends in terms of what is driving growth. 17

18 National Employment 5 Change in Employment (Feb 21-Oct 212) 4 Thousands

19 National Employment 2 Change in Employment (Oct 211-Oct 212) 15 Thousands

20 National Employment Percent Change in Employment (Feb 21-Oct 212)

21 National Employment 3 Percent Change in Employment (Oct 211-Oct 212)

22 Ohio Employment Thousands Change in Employment (Feb 21-Oct 212) 22

23 Ohio Employment 12 Change in Employment (Oct 211-Oct 212) 1 Thousands

24 Ohio Employment Percent Change in Employment (Feb 21-Oct 212) 24

25 Ohio Employment 6 Percent Change in Employment (Oct 211-Oct 212)

26 National Durable Manufacturing Thousands Thousands Change in Employment (Feb 21-Sep 212) Net Durable Motor Vehicles Motor Vehicle and Parts Change in Employment (Sep 211-Sep 212) Net Durable Motor Vehicles Motor Vehicle and Parts Percent Change in Employment (Feb 21-Sep 212) Net Durable Motor Vehicles Motor Vehicle and Parts Percent Change in Employment (Sep 211-Sep 212) Net Durable Motor Vehicles Motor Vehicle and Parts Notes: Motor Vehicles NAICS: Motor Vehicle and Parts NAICS

27 National Mining 1 8 Thousands Change in Employment (Feb 21-Sep 212) Percent Change in Employment (Feb 21- Sep 212) Net Mining Coal Oil & Natural Gas Oil and Gas Support Activities 1 Net Mining Coal Oil & Natural Gas Oil and Gas Support Activities 2 Change in Employment (Sep 211-Sep 212) 1 Percent Change in Employment (Sep 211- Sep 212) Thousands Net Mining Coal Oil & Natural Gas Oil and Gas Support Activities Net Mining Coal Oil & Natural Gas Oil and Gas Support Activities Notes: Mining NAICS: 121,Coal NAICS: 12121, Oil and Gas Extraction NAICS: 1211, Oil and Gas Support Activities NAICS:

28 Ohio Durable Manufacturing Change in Employment (Feb 21 - Oct 212) Percent Change in Employment (Feb 21-Oct 212) Thousands Net Durable Motor Vehicles Motor Vehicle and Parts Net Durable Motor Vehicles Motor Vehicle and Parts 15 Change in Employment (Oct 211 -Oct 212) 4 Percent Change in Employment (Oct 211-Oct 212) Thousands Net Durable Motor Vehicles Motor Vehicle and Parts Notes: Motor Vehicles NAICS: Motor Vehicle and Parts NAICS: Net Durable Motor Vehicles Motor Vehicle and Parts 28

29 Conclusions I expect the US economy will continue to modestly expand in 213 and avoid problems due to fiscal contraction and Europe. I think Ohio will slightly trail the US average, which is not so bad in a historical perspective. Growth will be strongly supported by ongoing recovery in housing. The new normal is growth will be more restrained until we have a productivity increases-- probably due to innovation. 29

30 Conclusions Yet, US performance looks much better when compared to other advanced economies. Another strength of the U.S. and Ohio economies are the broad-based nature of their recoveries that do not rely on the strength of single industries. 3

31 Mark Partridge Swank Chair in Rural-Urban Policy Dept. Agricultural, Environmental & Development Economics The Ohio State University Google Partridge Swank and you will get my website (614)

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