GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS AND DEVELOPMENT Part II: Country Case Studies

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1 GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS AND DEVELOPMENT Part II: Country Case Studies Gary Gereffi Director, Duke CGGC Duke University Roma Tre University Rome, Italy April 26,

2 AGENDA GVCs, Development and Local Economies: Part II 1. GVC Competition for US Market: Mexico vs. China 2. Italian Industrial Districts: The Gold Jewellery Case 3. GVCs and Emerging Economies

3 GVC BATTLE FOR THE U.S. MARKET: MEXICO VS. CHINA 2015 CGGC, Duke University 3

4 Mexico s Exports to World Market,

5 % Export Market China s Exports to World Market, Primary Products Resource Based Manufactures 50 Low Tech Manufactures Medium Tech Manufactures High Tech Manufactures Total Exports US $B T 1.4T 1.2T 1.6T 1.9T 2.0T 2.2T 2.3T 5

6 Mexico vs. China Head-to-head competition in U.S. market China is world s leading exporter of many manufactures, esp. consumer goods China and Mexico are typically among the top three exporters to the U.S. market in many product categories China is moving ahead of Mexico with dominant market shares in the United States, especially in period 2015 CGGC, Duke University 6

7 Mexico's and China's Competing Exports to US Market SITC Category Product Automatic Data Processing Machines Telecom Equipment Electrical Machinery Value (billions) 2000 Share of US market Value (billions) 2007 Share of US market Value (billions) Share of US market Mexico China US Total Mexico China US Total Mexico China US Total Change in Market Share Change in Market Share Auto Parts Mexico China US Total Furniture Mexico China Apparel and Cothing US Total Mexico China US Total Source: US Department of Commerce (http://dataweb.usitc.gov), Downloaded Aug 26,

8 2015 CGGC, Duke University Source: USITC downloaded Aug 26,

9 2015 CGGC, Duke University Source: USITC downloaded Aug 26,

10 2015 CGGC, Duke University Source: USITC downloaded Aug 26,

11 2015 CGGC, Duke University Source: USITC downloaded Aug 26,

12 Why is China gaining U.S. market share over Mexico? China is a lower-cost producer overall (labor costs lower, but not transport & tariffs) China has huge scale economies China has a coherent and multidimensional upgrading strategy diversify and add high value activities China is using direct foreign investment to promote fast learning in new industries China uses access to its domestic market to attract TNCs and promote knowledge spillovers 2015 CGGC, Duke University 12

13 China s Supply Chain Cities in Apparel 2015 CGGC, Duke University Source: David Barboza, In roaring China, sweaters are west of socks city, New York Times, Dec. 24,

14 What kinds of work are Chinese, Indian, and American engineers actually doing? Answer: Not just product adaptation, but cutting-edge research & commercialization China: More than 1,200 MNC R&D Centers GE s China Technology Center: Advanced research in energy storage, environmental management Microsoft Research Asia: Cutting-edge graphics & multimedia research 2015 CGGC, Duke University 14

15 China Is Climbing the Value Chain Moving from low-tech to high-tech manufactured goods Moving from manufacturing to high value services R&D, design, marketing of national brands, logistics, finance Moving from inward FDI (joint ventures & technology transfer) to outward FDI (primary commodities, computers, shipping) BUT BEWARE High tech exports don t necessarily mean high value added production e.g., China s ipod 2015 CGGC, Duke University 15

16 China assembles all ipods, but it only gets about $4 per unit or just over 1% of the US retail price of $ CGGC, Duke University 16

17 U.S. Trade Balance with China for iphone 4 (US$, 1 unit) Source: G. Gereffi and J. Lee, Why the world suddenly cares about global supply chains, Journal of Supply Chain Management (2012) CGGC, Duke University 17

18 QUESTIONS CHINA Strengths and weaknesses of China s development strategy? Opportunities and challenges for the future? How can China upgrade its i-phone sector? MEXICO How can Mexico improve its position vis-à-vis China? Opportunities and challenges for Mexico? 2015 CGGC, Duke University 18

19 ITALIAN GOLD JEWELLERY DISTRICTS: Valenza Po, Vicenza & Arezzo 2015 CGGC, Duke University 19

20 THREE JEWELLERY DISTRICTS IN ITALY Valenza Po (15.9%) Vicenza (25.8%) Arezzo (30.7%) Note: in parenthesis the share of Italian export by each district; 2013 data 2015 CGGC, Duke University 20

21 Major Gold Jewellery Exporters, % Major Gold Jewelry Exporters' World Market Share, % Italy 15% 10% 5% USA France China UAE China UAE France USA Italy 0% China United Arab Emirates France USA Italy Source: UN Comtrade data - HS Code

22 Italian Gold Jewelry Districts and Major Markets Exports in 2015 (US$ billions) Switzerland US UAE Hong kong Valenza Po Vicenza Arezzo Billions. Export in values terms. Source: COEWEB (Istat), referring to ATECO code

23 Italian Gold Jewelry Districts and Major Markets Trade Networks (2015) 23

24 Number of firms and employees in the districts active firms employees of active firms var. 91/01 var. 01/11 var. 91/ var. 91/01 var. 01/11 var. 91/11 Alessandria 1,474 1, % -35.6% -37.5% 7,668 8,684 5, % -37.6% -29.4% Vicenza 934 1, % -40.0% -28.8% 10,443 11,675 4, % -62.1% -57.6% Arezzo 1,194 1,659 1, % -31.0% -4.1% 9,357 11,664 7, % -37.6% -22.3% Source: Census data, referring to ATECO for the years 1991 and 2001 and to ATECO 2007: 32.1 in 2011 average employees per firm var. 91/01 var. 01/11 var. 91/11 Alessandria % -3.1% 13.0% Vicenza % -36.9% -40.5% Arezzo % -9.6% -18.9% Source: Census data, referring to ATECO for the years 1991 and 2001 and to ATECO 2007: 32.1 in

25 Gold Jewellery Districts: Export Shifts Over Time Incidence on italian export (values) Alessandria Vicenza Arezzo % 9.5% 12.3% 25.7% 33.0% 30.3% 26.7% 22.6% 36.0% 30.5% 33.5% 28.2% total 77.5% 70.2% 72.5% 76.5% Source: COEWEB data, referring to ATECO 2007:

26 2015 CGGC, Duke University Valenza Po

27 Traditional Domestic Value Chains ( - mid-1950s) Domestic Wholesaler/retailer Domestic Market Foreign Market Valenza Po Local Trader / Commercial Agent Subcontractors Artisan Workshops Market Relational Captive Hierarchy Source: adapted based on Gaggio s (2007) descriptions 2015 CGGC, Duke University

28 Domestic/Global Dual Value Chains (late 1950s early 1980s) Domestic Wholesaler/retailer Foreign Wholesaler/retailer (e.g. Europe, US) International Trader (Gold + Gemstone) Domestic Market Foreign Market Valenza Po Local Trader / Commercial Agent Export Company (E-O*) Export Consortium (e.g. GAM**) Subcontractors Artisan Workshops Market Relational Captive Hierarchy * E-O: Export-Orafi; ** GAM: export consortium Source: adapted based on Gaggio s (2007) descriptions 2015 CGGC, Duke University

29 Internationalized Value Chains (early 1980s 2000s s) 2008) Domestic Wholesaler/retailer Own Brand Chain (e.g. Italy, US, Japan) Bulgari Foreign Wholesaler/retailer (e.g. Europe, US) Domestic Market Foreign Market Valenza Po Casa Damiani Commercial Agent Crova Jewelry Fairs Subcontractors Own Factory Artisan Workshops Market Relational Captive Hierarchy Source: adapted based on Gaggio s (2007) descriptions 2015 CGGC, Duke University

30 2015 CGGC, Duke University Arezzo

31 Arezzo Gold Jewelry Value Chains (late (1980s 1990s mid-1990s) - present) Domestic Wholesaler/retailer Foreign Wholesaler/retailer (US, Europe, (mostly, Middle US) East) Offshore Factory (e.g. Jordan) Domestic Market Foreign Market Arezzo Smaller Exporter Gori-Zucchi (Uno-A-Erre) Artisan Workshops or Female Homework Subcontractors Artisan Workshops Female Homework Market Relational Captive Hierarchy Source: adapted based on Gaggio s (2007) descriptions 2015 CGGC, Duke University

32 QUESTION: WHAT STEPS COULD ITALIAN INDUSTRIAL DISTRICTS TAKE TO RETAIN THEIR INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS? 2015 CGGC, Duke University 32

33 5 Main Trends in Italian Gold Jewelry Districts 1. Declining share of key export markets Intense competition from developing economies (India, China, Turkey); adverse exchange rates 2. Consolidation and integration by foreign retail/luxury brand firms (e.g., Bulgari s acquisition of Crova) 3. Strategic diversification SME specialization in high value products & large firm diversification 4. Internationalization of production overseas suppliers in proximate offshore locations with lower costs 5. Internationalization of marketing e.g., large Italian firms like Casa Damiani establish overseas retail shops 2015 CGGC, Duke University

34 THE ROLE OF EMERGING ECONOMIES IN GVCs 34

35 Seven Selected Emerging Economies in Comparative Perspective, 2013 Population Exports GDP GDP/capita GDP/capita GDP growth Percent of GDP³ Country (Millions)¹ ($Billions)² ($Billions)¹ (USD)¹ (PPP)¹ YoY (%)¹ Agriculture Industry Services China 1,357 $2,209 $9,240 $6,807 $11, South Korea 50 $560 $1,305 $25,977 $33, Russia 143 $527 $2,096 $14,611 $24, Mexico 122 $380 $1,261 $10,307 $16, India 1,252 $337 $1,877 $1,498 $5, Brazil 200 $242 $2,246 $11,208 $15, South Africa 53 $95 $351 $6,618 $12, Total or Avg. 3,177 $4,350 $18,376 $11,004 $16, World Total 7,125 $17,635 $75,593 $10,610 $14, % of World Total 45% 25% 24% 104% 118% 146% Sources: (1) World Bank, World Development Indicators: (2) UN Comtrade, International Trade Center: (3) CIA World Factbook, Country Profiles: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/

36 Emerging Economy Export Profiles (Percentages of total exports: 2013) Share of exports by sector in 2013* Total Change in Percentage point change in Export total export share of exports by sector, Primary Resource Low-Tech Medium- Value value, Primary Resource Low-Tech Medium- Products Based Tech High-Tech ($Billions) Products Based Tech High-Tech China 3% 8% 32% 23% 34% 2, % South Korea 2% 17% 9% 43% 28% % Russia 55% 29% 2% 8% 2% % Mexico 16% 8% 9% 42% 22% % India 14% 38% 20% 18% 8% % Brazil 33% 33% 5% 21% 4% % South Africa 25% 31% 6% 27% 3% % *Exports totals do not include uncategorized exports, and therefore they may not equal 100%. Legend: x -6-5 x < 0 0 x 9 x 10

37 Emerging Economies: Development Strategies in Conflict China: Combining labor-intensive, technologyintensive and knowledge-intensive GVCs iphone case: East Asian regional ecosystem Innovation & MNC R&D centers; joint-ventures Brazil Soybean value chain Electronics & Foxconn South Africa Climbing natural resource GVCs in Africa

38 GVC-oriented Industrial Policies The GVC framework suggests ways to enhance the competitiveness of local economic clusters: Focus on quality and high-value activities in order to move up global value chains Target MNCs that will strengthen country s GVCs and create dynamic local linkages Strengthen the role of domestic suppliers and use TNCs as learning platforms Explore international partnerships to expand country s capabilities and footprint in GVCs

39 Gary Gereffi 39

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