Country Profile. Iraq

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1 Country Profile August 2012

2 55th Anniversary The Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-profit research and educational organization that works to prevent violent conflict and promote sustainable security. We promote sustainable security through research, training and education, engagement of civil society, building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing innovative technologies and tools for policy makers. A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning field, the Fund for Peace focuses on the problems of weak and failing states. Our objective is to create practical tools and approaches for conflict mitigation that are useful to decision-makers. Copyright 2012 The Fund for Peace. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent from The Fund for Peace. The Fund for Peace Conflict Early Warning and Assessment Further In-Depth Analysis Country Profiles Series Editor J. J. Messner Country Profile Written by Felipe Umaña The Fund for Peace Publication FFP : CCPPR12IQ (Version 08B) Circulation: PUBLIC The Fund for Peace 1720 I Street NW 7th Floor Washington, D.C T: F: Beyond the Failed States Index and our Country Profiles, The Fund for Peace specializes in conducting specific risk assessments and in-depth national-, regional- and provincial-level analysis. Pairing the same content analysis software that underpins our Indicator scores with expert qualitative analysis, The Fund for Peace has performed customized analysis from floods in Pakistan s Sindh province to instability in Mindanao and Luzon in the Philippines. To learn more, visit: /indepth 2 The Fund for Peace

3 Profile Pressures Capacity At-a-Glance Combined Failed States Index Score Failed States Index Rank Average Indicator Score Year-on-Year Core Average Score Core Rank Capacity Minus Pressures th st -4.7 Maximum 120 of 177 countries Maximum 10 Improvement Maximum 10 of 177 countries Pressures Assessment: High Alert Capacity Assessment: Weak High Pressure Medium Capacity Outlook Multi-Year Pressures Trend faced a tumultuous quarter-century under the leadership of Saddam Hussein, finding itself and its population ravaged by wars carried out against neighbors and foreign powers alike. The effects of its war-torn society have left an indelible mark on its politics and have significantly limited its economic output. Years of American military intervention has also greatly shaped the country s current conditions. Marked by the Persian Gulf War of 1991 and the U.S.-led invasion of 2003, the course of s history has been changed forever by external intervention. A fragmented democracy and pervasive social divisions are thus symptomatic of its besieged past. An important transition began in 2011 when the i government took greater control of the country following the withdrawal of the coalition forces. However, the continuation of sectarian violence has slowed any substantial reform, and preexisting prejudices instill distrust amongst several ethnic groups. Furthermore, the damaged oil infrastructure and continued disputes over the administration of oil fields between Baghdad and the Kurdish authorities are obstacles to the increase of oil revenues. The almost decade-long war has stymied virtually all forms of development. Other challenges include widespread corruption, low foreign investment, and a severely damaged transportation infrastructure. Failed States Index (Pressures) Total Score Worsening The large chart represents a magnified portion of the full scale chart, shown right Improvement Alert 3 The Fund for Peace

4 Indicators Social, Economic & Political Pressures Social & Economic Indicators Demographic Pressures Refugees and IDPs Group Grievance Human Flight Uneven Development Poverty and Decline th 15th 2nd 5th 10th 26th Weak Poor Poor Poor Poor Weak Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Improved Improved Worsened Improved Improved Worsened 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend Improved Improved Unchanged Improved Unchanged Unchanged Recent Improvements and Declines Although showing some slight improvements over its 2010 scores, continues to rank very poorly on its social and economic indicators. It ranks particularly badly on Group Grievance, due to strong fractures between ethnic, political, and religious groups. Violence that ensues from these conflicts places intense pressure on the population, forcing many to abandon the country. This adversely affects the nation s economic output, growth and IDP figures. remains home to hundreds of thousands of IDPs without adequate access to public services. However, the Refugees and IDP score improved as increases in government aid in 2011 saw the most returns since the 2003 conflict began. A damaged economy and pervasive violence has hurt s recovery, but the promise of reform has positively affected s Human Flight score. s Group Grievance score remains one of the highest on the Failed States Index. Inter-communal violence is very prevalent as Sunni and Shi a factions continue to struggle for political influence. Minority ethnic and religious groups continue to face many challenges. Wi d es p r e a d u n e m pl o y m en t, a n undeveloped agricultural sector, and low levels of foreign investment have had a negative impact on s Poverty and Economic Decline indicators. 4 The Fund for Peace

5 Political & Military Indicators Legitimacy of the State Public Services Human Rights Security Apparatus Factionalized Elites External Intervention nd 42nd 28th 2nd 8th 11th Poor Weak Poor Poor Poor Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Year-on-Year Trend Improved Improved Improved Worsened Unchanged Improved 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend 5-Year Trend Improved Improved Improved Unchanged Unchanged Improved Recent Improvements and Declines Human rights conditions continue to be poor in, especially for women, homosexuals, and journalists. Conditions for prisoners are especially concerning. Rights related to the freedom of assembly heavily deteriorated in 2011 as antigovernment protests spread. continues to deal with rampant violence originating from numerous pressure groups like Sunni and Shi a militias and al-qaeda affiliates. bodycount.org estimates that on average there were 6.6 civilian deaths per day in 2011 due to suicide attacks and vehicle bombings and 4.6 average deaths per day from gunfire and executions. The Factionalized Elites score remains the same as internal struggles continue to impede political reform and democratic progress. Though is still greatly dependent on external humanitarian efforts and foreign aid, movements to stabilize the country by the government have slightly improved the External Intervention score. continues to be one of the world s most dangerous countries, a symptom of a weak and troubled central government. Security conditions are amongst the worst in the region, as militias and other pressure groups undermine the government and security forces. is also characterized by widespread corruption and a poor human rights record. Furthermore, its ethnically and religiously fragmented society gives rise to a fractured government. also continues to depend substantially on foreign assistance. 5 The Fund for Peace

6 Pressures and Capacities Capacity & Comparisons State Institutions and Civil Society: Core 5+2 Indicators Leadership Military Police Judiciary Civil Service Civil Society Media Weak Good Weak Weak Weak Moderate Weak Pressures v. Capacity Plot Comparison Low Capacity High Capacity Switzerland Austria Denmark Netherlands Finland France Ireland Slovenia Argentina Estonia Mongolia Haiti Afghanistan Somalia Low Pressure High Pressure 120 Ukraine Cyprus Paraguay Turkmenistan Venezuela Israel Georgia Uzbekistan Myanmar Chad Zimbabwe Sudan D.R.C. Pressures v. Capacities Flat Comparison A representation of capacities vs. pressures based on the difference between average capacity indicator score and average pressure indicator score. Higher Pressure, Lower Capacity Lower Pressure, Higher Capacity 6 The Fund for Peace

7 Demographics Pressures Radar Comparison Life Expectancy Median Age Japan years years 8 Mozambique years 6 60 years 4 50 years Japan years 2 30 years Uganda Global Average 20 years 10 years Population GDP Per Capita (PPP) 33,330,000 US$ 3,890 Average (All Countries) Average (Middle East and North Africa) Multi-Indicator Comparison Pressures Pressures better than average Pressures worse than average Finland: Best Performer Capacities Average of all 177 countries Somalia: Worst Performer A visual representation of the proportion of the total pressure and capacity scores that are contributed by each individual indicator. Each color within the bar chart corresponds to the colors of the 12 Failed States Index (pressure) indicators and the 7 Core 5+2 (capacity) indicators. Guidelines are also provided to demonstrate the average score for all 177 countries, as well as the extremes of best and worst performers. Capacity lower than average Capacity higher than average Average of all 177 countries Somalia: Worst Performer Austria: Best Performer 7 The Fund for Peace

8 The Fund for Peace Conflict Early Warning and Assessment FFP : CCPPR12IQ

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