BaNGLaDESH FOOD SITUATION REPORT April -June, Volume-97

Transcription

1 BaNGLaDESH FOOD SITUATION REPORT April -June, Volume-97 Overview FPMU Domestic Production Outlook The target for total foodgrain production in FY was set by the DAE at million metric tons (mmt). Meanwhile, BBS has finalized aus, aman and wheat production at 2.33 mmt, mmt and 1.30 mmt respectively. According to the latest monitoring report of DAE, area planted to boro slightly exceeded the target, and boro season experienced favorable weather conditions. Thus assuming boro production target to be achieved, total foodgrain production in is expected to be mmt, 1.34% higher than last year s production. Foodgrain Import Total foodgrain import in FY was 1.89 mmt of which 0.03 mmt was rice and 1.86 mmt wheat. As usual, wheat import by the private sector constituted the major part of foodgrain import. In FY , total foodgrain import was 3.06 mmt of which 0.38 mmt was rice and 2.69 mmt wheat. The Government is pursuing the policy of importing larger quantity of wheat to continue distribution of atta through OMS to stabilize wheat/atta prices in the market. Domestic Foodgrain Procurement The revised procurement target in FY was set at 1.45 mmt of which 1.30 mmt would be rice and 0.15 mmt wheat. Actual procurement during the year was 1.44 mmt, of which rice was 1.29 mmt and wheat 0.15 mmt. The current boro procurement target has been set at 1.10 mmt at the rate of Tk 20 /kg of paddy, Tk 30 / kg of white rice and Tk 31/ kg of parboiled rice. Boro procurement started from 1 st May, 2014 and will continue up to 31 st August Public Foodgrain Distribution The revised budget for public foodgrain distribution in was set at 2.55 mmt. The actual distribution in the year was 2.22 mmt. The Government distributed higher quantity of foodgrains in compared to previous year to ease hardships of poor households. Distribution through OMS/FPC was the highest, followed by TR, VGF and VGD. Public Stock of Foodgrains The opening public stock of foodgrains on 1 st July/13 was 1.02 mmt and the ending stock of June/14 was 1.15 mmt. The stock of foodgrain fluctuated during the July/13-May/14 period and generally remained slightly above one million tons. The closing stock of 1.15 mmt of June/14 seems to be adequate to meet the requirements for PFDS operations in the coming months. Domestic Market Prices The wholesale prices of rice and wheat declined during the April-June/14 period. The nominal wholesale prices of rice and wheat fell by 3.1% and 7.1% respectively during the period. The retail prices of rice and wheat also showed downward trend during the last quarter of During the entire period, while nominal rice prices increased by 9.9%, wheat prices decreased by 4.0%. During the same period, real rice prices rose by 4.4%, while wheat real prices fell by 8.9%. International Prices and Production Outlook Global rice production for is forecast at a record level of mmt, up 1 percent from a year earlier. Global wheat production during the year is projected to reach mmt, up 4.6 mmt from previous month s forecast. Several major exporting countries have increased production prospects, namely China, Burma, Cambodia and Indonesia for rice, and Russia, Poland Romania and Bulgaria for wheat. International rice and wheat prices have exhibited relatively lesser fluctuations over the last two quarters of the outgoing fiscal year FPMU, Ministry of Food; 27 th July,

2 Domestic Foodgrain Availability Domestic Foodgrain Production Total foodgrain production target for FY was set by the DAE at mmt in which contribution of aus, aman, boro and wheat would be 2.41 mmt, mmt, mmt and 1.38 mmt respectively. Meanwhile, BBS has finalized aus, aman and wheat production at 2.33 mmt, mmt and 1.30 mmt respectively. According to the latest monitoring report of DAE, area achieved for boro slightly exceeded the target, reaching 4.80 million hectares. Boro season also experienced favorable weather conditions. Therefore, DAE is expecting boro production target to be comfortably achieved. Thus allowing for the marginal shortfall in aus and aman production, marginal increase in wheat production and fulfillment of the target for boro production, total foodgrain production in FY is expected to be mmt, slightly falling short of target, but exceeding last year s total foodgrain production by 1.34%. Figure 1: Annual foodgrain production (mmt) and crop-wise contribution Boro Aman Aus Wheat Boro Aman Aus Wheat 2013/14 (Target/Actual) 2012/13 (Actual) Foodgrain Import The target for foodgrain import for FY was 3.40 mmt. Actual import during the year was 3.10 mmt of which 0.38 mmt was rice and 2.69 mmt wheat. It would be important to note that there was no commercial public import of rice during the year. Food aid was also negligible. Private import constituted almost the entire part of rice import. However, public commercial wheat import constituted a substantial part of total wheat import during the year. The Government geared up wheat import to continue distribution of atta through OMS in an effort to stabilize wheat/atta prices in the market. Table 1: Foodgrain imports (000 metric tons) Category of import Q1 Q2 Q3 (Actual) (Actual) (Actual) (Actual) (Actual) (Actual) (Actual) FY Q4 Arrival by Month (Actual) Apr May Jun Total Total Import ( ) Rice GoB Com Food Aid Private Total Rice Wheat GoB. Com Food Aid Private Total Wheat Foodgrain

3 Domestic Foodgrain Procurement The revised foodgrain procurement target for the fiscal year was set at 1.45 mmt of which 1.30 mmt would be rice nand 0.15 mmt wheat. Actual procurement during the year was 1.44 mmt of which rice was 1.29 mmt and wheat 0.15 mmt. Thus the procurement target was almost fully realized. The revised aman procurement target was 0.40 mmt against which 0.36 mmt was procured. The current boro procreant target has been set at 1.10 mmt at the rate of TK 20/kg of paddy, TK 30/kg of white rice and Tk 31/kg of parboiled rice. Boro procurement started from 1 st May and will continue up to 31 st August. The current procurement price is likely to give adequate incentives to farmers/millers so that the boro procurement target is expected to be achieved. Public Foodgrain Distribution The revised budget for public foodgrain distribution in was The actual distribution during the year was 2.22 mmt, against distribution of 2.09 mmt of foodgrains in the preceding year The Government distributed higher amount of foodgrains in to ease hardships of poor people. Distribution through OMS/FPC was the highest, followed by TR, VGF and VGD. Table-2 Channel-wise distribution of foodgrains (000 mt) Offtake Categori es Monetized Channels of PFDS Channels of PFDS FY FY FY Budget( ) Offtake Rice Wheat Total Rice Wheat Total Rice Wheat Total Rice Wheat Total Essential Priorities Other Priorities Large Employers Open Market Sales/FPC Sub-total Food For Works Test Relief Nonmonetized VGF VGD Channels of PFDS Gratuitous Relief Others Sub-total Total Public Distribution Public Stock of Foodgrains The opening public stock of foodgrains on 1 st July/13 was 1.02 mmt and the ending stock of June/14 was 1.15 mmt. The stock of foodgrain fluctuated during the July/13-May/14 period and generally remained slightly above one million tons. The closing stock of 1.15 mmt in June/14 seems to be adequate to meet the requirements for PFDS operations in the coming months. Table 3: Commodity-wise closing public stock in FY and (000 mt) Month July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 13-Jan Feb Mar Apr May June 2012/13 Rice Wheat Total /14 Rice Wheat Total

4 Market Price Review Rice and Wheat Wholesale Prices The wholesale rice and wheat prices declined during the last quarter from April to June of the FY The nominal rice prices fell by 3.1%, while wheat prices fell at a higher pace by 7.1% during the same period. The corresponding real prices dropped by 2.6% and 6.6%. The nominal rice prices fell by 0.8% and wheat prices rose by 5.0% during the same period of the earlier year. During FY13-14, nominal rice prices shot up by 9.9% while wheat prices fell by 4.0%. The real rice prices rose by 4.4%, while for wheat they declined by 8.9% during the same period (Table 4). Taka / quintal Fig.2 National wholesale price Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 14- Feb Mar Apr May Jun Rice Jan Wheat Rice Wheat Table 4: Change of rice and wheat prices during Rice and Wheat flour Retail Price Like wholesale prices, retail prices of rice and atta showed a downward trend during the last quarter of current fiscal year. Rice and atta prices dropped by 2.9% and 2.0% respectively during the same period. During FY13-14, rice prices continued to rise till April/14 with little fluctuation and thereafter started declining. By contrast, atta prices showed high fluctuation with a downward trend since February/14. Taka / kg Fig.3 National retail price: Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Rice Atta Rice Atta Difference between Retail and Wholesale Prices of Rice and Wheat Flour Retail and wholesale prices of rice and atta in Dhaka city markets moved almost in the same directions, parallel to each other, during FY13-14, with a percentage margin ranging from 6.4% to 9.0% for rice and 8.1% to 10.1% for atta (Figures 4 and 5). The margins of rice and atta prices during the last quarter of the FY13-14 remained by and large stable. Taka/% Fig.4 Margins, retail and wholesale prices of rice in Dhaka, Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Percentage margin Wholesale price Retail price Taka/% Fig. 5 Margins, retail and wholesale prices of Atta in Dhaka, Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Percentage margin Wholesale price Retail price 4

5 Monitoring and Outlook for Wholesale Prices of Foodgrains Domestic Rice Price Forecast The rice prices during February-June/14 period followed somewhat different pattern from what was observed in the last four years; prices increased during February-April period instead of having falling tendency in the normal years. Current year s prices were lower than the prices of earlier years and their differences decreased in the later period. The absolute differences between actual and normal prices fell from 7% in February to 3% in June. Estimates from the price monitoring model as shown in Figure 6 forecasts a band within which the price of rice is expected to remain during July to September/14, if past trends are Source: Elaboration on DAM data Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep confirmed. Based on the estimates, it is noted that in September/14, there is a 70% chance that the coarse rice price will remain between Tk. 29.5/kg and Tk. 33.3/kg. Domestic Wheat Price Forecast During the February-June/14 period, wheat prices followed completely different pattern observed over the last four years. Prices rose instead of falling 2800 Fig 7: Monitoring of wholesale wheat price 2661 during February-April in the normal year Additionally, there was a sharp decline in price in May, against stable price in the normal year. The market prices remained lower than normal prices in all the months except inapril when they reached same level of normal prices. The absolute difference 2000 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep between actual and normal prices fell from 13% in Market Price Normal Past Price February to 7% in June. The model estimates show Benchmark price (low) Benchmark price (middle) that the price is expected to remain between Tk per kg and Tk per kg in July/14 and between Tk per kg and Tk per kg in September/14 (Fig. 7). International Price and Production Global Rice Production and Price According to USDA Rice Outlook June/14, global rice production in is forecast at a record level of mmt (milled basis), up 1 percent from a year earlier. Record production is projected for Southeast Asia and East Asia. Southeast Asia is projected to harvest record mmt rice in , up 1 percent from a year earlier. Burma, China, Cambodia, Indonesia and Philippines are projected to increase production in The average of Letter of Credit (LC) settled price is generally used as the reference price for rice import in Bangladesh. The LC settled price fluctuated during June/12 and June/13, but remained relatively stable during June/13 and June/14 period. The price of Thai 5% parboiled rice had a moderate downward trend over the entire period and tended to converge with LC settled price in June/14 (Figure 8). USD/MT Taka per quintal Taka per quintal Fig 6: Monitoring wholesale coarse rice price Market Price Benchmark price (low) Fig 8 Interna tional rice price Normal Past Price Benchmark price (middle) Jul'12 Aug'12 Sep'12 Oct'12 Nov'12 Dec'12 Jan'13 Feb'13 Mar'13 Apr'13 May'13 Jun'13 Jul'13 Aug'13 Sep'13 Oct'13 Nov'13 Dec'13 Jan'14 Feb'14 Mar'14 Apr'14 May'14 Jun'14 LC Settled Source: Bangladesh Bank, USDA Thai 5% paraboiled 5

6 Global Wheat Production and Price Global wheat production is projected to reach mmt, up 4.6 mmt from previous month forecast. The major increase in the production prospect is attributed to enhanced production in European Union and Russia. China is also expected to make a record harvest of wheat in Production prospect also looks favorable in France, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria. Both LC settled price and US Soft Red Winter (SRW) price of wheat fluctuated during the period from January/13 to May/14, but the SRW price remained persistently lower than the LC settled price. Both prices dropped in June/14 and tended to coverage. According to CBOT futures, SRW wheat contract dropped by 12 USD/MT in July/14, resulting from plentiful global supplies and strong export competition. Food Consumption and Nutrition Child underweight situation: Child underweight is a composite measure of child under nutrition that includes all children who have a low weight for age, either due to short stature (stunting), thinness (wasting), or a combination of the two. Child underweight may include children who are only mildly undernourished based on both of these indicators. The child underweight situation has improved in the recent years. As per the Bangladesh Demographic & Health Survey (BDHS) 2011, the percentage of underweight of under-5 children declined to 36% from 41% in Recent data from the Utilization of Essential Service Delivery (UESD) Survey 2013 (an interim proxy survey for BDHS) states that the rate of underweight is 35%. Recent updates from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey conducted by BBS and UNICEF shows that the underweight prevalence among under-5 children is 31.9%. FSNSP 2013 annualized findings indicate a rate of 30.1%. While these declines are noteworthy, the underweight prevalence is still high according to the WHO cutoff point of 30%, which indicates public health concern. USD/MT Fig 9 Internationa l wheat price Jul'12 Aug'12 Sep'12 Oct'12 Nov'12 Dec'12 Jan'13 Feb'13 Mar'13 April'13 May'13 Jun'13 Jul'13 Aug'13 Sep'13 Oct'13 Nov'13 Dec'13 Jan'14 Feb'14 Mar'14 Apr'14 May'14 Jun'14 LC Settled Source: Bangladesh Bank, USDA Wheat (soft red) While there was little change in prevalence estimates Fig 10- Prevalence of underweight among U5 children from 1999 to 2007, some of this was due to stagnation in rates of reduction and some were due to changing seasonality in the BDHS surveys. From 2007 to 2011, there is a considerable progress in underweight prevalence among under-5 children. As per the Millennium Development Goal (MDG)-1, prevalence of underweight among under-5 children (%) is one of the key indicators under Target 1C (Halve between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger). The target to be achieved for underweight reduction by 2015 is 33%. The recent Bangladesh Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) data shows that the MDG 1 target C has been on track. The MICS data also shows regional disparities among 7 Divisions of Bangladesh. The underweight rate varies from 28.5% (in Khulna) to 39.7% (in Sylhet) in Bangladesh. From a policy perspective, regional nutrition interventions and social safety net programmes need to be scaled up to reduce malnutrition on a nationwide basis. 6