Frontier Tech: Defined

Transcription

1 Frontier Tech

2 Frontier Tech: Defined Frontier Tech can be defined as new industries, or a reinvention of existing industries, made possible by advancements in technologies that represent the potential for a paradigm shift affecting business, economics, the environment and the whole of society. We can only see a short distance ahead, but we can see plenty there that needs to be done. Alan Turing, British Pioneering Computer Scientist Our technology, our machines, are part of our humanity. We created them to extend ourselves, and that is what is unique about human beings. Ray Kurzweil, Director of Engineering at Google, Author of The Age of Spiritual Machines and The Singularity Is Near 2

3 Frontier Tech: Industries SVB defines these five industries under Frontier Tech. These industries are interconnected and have the potential to enhance the capabilities of each application. Predictive Analytics Machine Learning Social Medical/ Healthcare Service Rescue & Protection Industrial Entertainment Military/ Space Vision Algorithms Software & Platforms Natural Language FRONTIER TECH Satellites & Imaging Data Consumer Hardware Platforms Entertainment & Gaming Advertising Enterprise Industrial Commerce Rocket Technology & Transport Surveying/ Monitoring Imaging Infrastructure Hardware & Platforms RT Data Software Analytics Delivery Space Services 3

4 Frontier Tech: Catalysts After several false dawns, infrastructure is now in place to support advancements in Frontier Tech. Compute Power Exponentially Increasing Hardware Innovation Compute Power, Speed and Cost Data Innovation Sensorization, Access and Precision Software Innovation Analytics, Deep Learning and Smart Autonomy Source: Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity in Near 4

5 Frontier Tech: Hype vs. Reality Many Frontier Tech industries are moving quickly through the hype curve, as the technology matures and investment and adoption increases. Autonomous Vehicles Space Services Smart Advisors Speech-to-Speech Translation Machine Learning Hype Connected Home Affective Computing Rocket Technology Smart Robots Human Augmentation Virtual Personal Assistants Natural-Language Question Answering Augmented Reality Virtual Reality Autonomous Field Vehicles Unmanned Air Vehicles Innovation Inflated Disillusionment Enlightenment Productivity Expectations Based on Gartner's 2015 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies Source: Gartner, Silicon Valley Bank 5

6 Frontier Tech: Market Size Current and expected market size by industry. Including Space Excluding Space 5 Year CAGR ($ in billions) 59% 266% 53% 10% 29% 15% Virtual Reality Augmented Reality Drones Robotics Artificial Intelligence Space $834 Virtual Reality Augmented Reality Drones Robotics Artificial Intelligence Space $0.05 $0.7 $1 $12 $67 $ $ $314 $38 $6 $120 Source: Digi Capital, Markets and Markets, Space Foundation, Parliamentary Space Committee, RoboUniverse, Future Market Insights, PR Newswire 6

7 Frontier Tech: Funding Landscape The number and dollar amount of investments in all areas of Frontier Tech have been increasing, with a significant funding ramp up in the past 18 months. Capital (in millions) $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $ Number of Deals VR/AR Drones Robotics Artificial Intelligence Space Outlier Outliers represent investments greater than 45% of the invested capital in one funding round. Source: CBInsights 7

8 Frontier Tech: Deals by Stage Funding trends of the last five years show that Frontier Tech still is at a very early stage.. Capital (in millions) $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Seed Series A Series B Series C Series D+ Outlier Total Count Number of Deals Seed also includes some crowdfunding. Deals occurred between Q and Q Source: CBInsights 8

9 Frontier Tech: Most Active Investors The pursuit of the next centicorn, a company that only comes around every decade and creates a life-changing impact for all, requires large corporates to partner more frequently with traditional venture players. MagicLeap Wearable Intelligence Skycatch MediaSpike Clarifai Matterport Airware Expect Labs AltspaceVR Orbital Insight ROTHENBERG VENTURES INCUBATOR Source: CBInsights, Silicon Valley Bank 9

10 Frontier Tech: Beyond Search One of our big goals in search is to make search that really understands exactly what you want, understands everything in the world. As computer scientists, we call that artificial intelligence. Larry Page CEO of Google (Alphabet) October

11 Frontier Tech: Searching for the Beyond Google is acquiring, making investments and developing its own technology across all Frontier Tech industries. Acquired Acquired: $555M SPACE ROBOTICS IoT Acquired: $3.2B ORBITAL INSIGHT In-House In-House AI DRONES VR/AR Acquired: $399M Acquired:$500M In-House Source: CB Insights 11

12 Frontier Tech: Transitioning The SVB Frontier Tech Maturity Index (left) measures current maturity, based on attributes impacting development, 1 = least mature. The table (right) measures the opportunity for future growth through 2020, 1 = least market potential. The larger the increase in number between the realized and unrealized markets, the greater growth potential. Infrastructure/ Scalability Level of Regulatory Oversight Barriers to Entry/ Competition Technology Maturation Maturity Score Drones Virtual Reality Higher Factors of Maturity Current Realized Market Unrealized Market in A.I. Cognitive Computing Service Robotics Industrial Robotics Augmented Reality A.I. Affective Computing Medical Robotics Space Lower Factors of Maturity

13 Frontier Tech: Transitioning GAME CHANGER/ NASCENT GAME CHANGER/ MATURE Space Augmented Reality Market Opportunity Affective Computing Medical Robotics Service Robotics Industrial Robotics Virtual Reality Cognitive Computing Drones Several Frontier Tech industries are in the very early stage of commercial development. But the underlying technologies have tremendous gamechanging market opportunities. NICHE/ NASCENT NICHE/ MATURE Relative Maturity 13

14 Frontier Tech: Potential Obstacles Technological Capabilities Will the drivers of recent FT developments continue? Will the technologies advance to solve the final solution? Scalability Is this niche applicable or broad-range applicable? Is the required infrastructure in place? Will unforeseen regulation impede use cases? Funding Social Adoption Demand How many phases of development are required? Will investments continue to flow to capital-intensive industries? Will the technology be easy to integrate into everyday? Will it be uncomfortable or unnatural to use? Does demand exist or does it need to be established? Is the market potential large enough to warrant near-term investment for longer term gain? 14

15 Frontier Tech: Tomorrow Frontier Tech advancements are poised to derive solutions to some of the world s most complex problems, as defined by the Millennium Project initiative. War Inequality Energy Clean Water Democracy & Policymaking Climate Change & Environmental Destruction Education & Learning VR/AR ROBOTICS DRONES ARTIFICIAL SPACE INTELLIGENCE Societal Tensions Sustainable Development Population & Resources Health Demographics 15

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