Japanese Refining Competitiveness

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1 7 th Japan-Europe Petroleum Technology Meeting Japanese Refining Competitiveness June 22, 2015 Kozo Morimitsu Japan Petroleum Energy Center

2 Agenda 1. Outline of Oil Industry in Japan 2. Results of Solomon s Refinery Survey (2012) 3. Growth Strategy of Oil Industry in Japan 2

3 Changes in Primary Energy Consumption in Japan Japan has promoted the so-called Oil Use Reduction policy. Total primary energy consumption is decreasing, but the ratio of fossil fuel has increased after the Great East Japan Earthquake. Oil Natural gas hydro coal nuclear New energy Non-fossil energy Fossil energy Fiscal Year 3

4 Forecast of Petroleum Products Demand Demand for refined products has declined at average annual rate of -2.4% between 2005 and 2013 Demand forecast for refined products is expected to decline at average annual rate of -1.3% from 2013 to 2020 thousand B/D 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Forecast of Petroleum Products Demand 495 forecast 1, ,062 1, LPG Naphtha Gasoline Kero/Jet Fuel Diesel/Gas Oil Residual Fuel 4

5 Reorganization of Oil Companies in Japan 18 oil companies 7 companies 5

6 Location of Refineries and Crude Capacity in Japan Nov Total: 25 refineries 4.34 M b/d Jun Total: 23 refineries 3.95 M b/d 6

7 Crude Refining Capacity and Oil Demand in Japan Oil demand will farther decrease because of declining population, improved energy efficiency, etc. Refining capacity will be still larger than consumption. Refining capacity Demand Utilization rate 7

8 Agenda 1. Outline of Oil Industry in Japan 2. Results of Solomon s Refinery Survey (based on data in 2012) 3. Growth Strategy of Oil Industry in Japan 8

9 Competitiveness of Japan s Refineries in the World Production cost of transportation fuel is relatively high in Japan. Crude oil cost cut, operational cost cut, improvement of profitability of by-products are required for the Japan s refineries. Changes in production cost of transportation fuel 9

10 Competitiveness of Japan s Refineries in the World Operational availability (OA) of world best refineries are 97. OA of Japan average refineries are around 92. Japan s refineries should reduce downtime such as turnaround maintenance. There is no relationship between refinery age and OA. Distribution of Operational availability Relationship between Refinery age and operational availability LX: large export oriented refineries, KA: average refineries in South Korea, JA: Japan average refineries, J5: top five refineries in Japan 10

11 Competitiveness of Japan s Refineries in the World Operating expenses of Japan s refineries are relatively high. More than two third of operating expenses of Japan s refineries is energy cost. Distribution of Operating Expenses Distribution of Energy Cost LX: large export oriented refineries, KA: average refineries in South Korea, JA: Japan average refineries, J5: top five refineries in Japan 11

12 Competitiveness of Japan s Refineries in the World The downtime caused by turnarounds on critical process units must be a key area of focus for improvement in Japan as a whole Both turnaround interval and duration should be considered Downtime Causes 12

13 Agenda 1. Outline of Oil Industry in Japan 2. Results of Solomon s Refinery Survey (2012) 3. Growth Strategy of Oil Industry in Japan 13

14 Growth Strategy of Oil Industry in Japan Strategic Energy Policy of Japan (government) Enhancement of Industrial Competitiveness National Resilience Stable supply of petroleum Future direction of Oil Industry Sophisticated utilization of oil resources Growth strategy Overseas expansion Comprehensive-Energy Industrialization Structural reform Resilience Disaster response capability Maintenance of sound supply chain 14

15 Energy Supply Structure Sophistication Act By the end of Mar

16 Energy Supply Structure Sophistication Act New evaluation criteria by the end of March 2017 Idemitsu Kosan: April 2015~ 20,000B/D Tonen General: April 2015~ 10,000B/D Cosmo+ Showa Shell: April 2017~ 1 topper ~ end of March 2017: Total 400,000B/D Japanese Petroleum Industry is blending Bio-ETBE as Bio ethanol 16

17 Growth Strategy of Oil Industry in Japan Sophisticated Utilization of Petroleum Resources Effective use of energy and production of high-value added products Energy saving, utilization of heavy residue, unconventional oil power petrochemical Main use of petroleum High-value added product Lub oil Energy use Petroleum Oil = resource = Resource heat asphalt Amount of oil resources and ratio of resources to production Trillion bbl Unconventional crude oil Abundance of crude oil Proven resource of crude oil Ratio of reserve to production 87 years 44 years 53 years Total ~200 years 17

18 Growth Strategy of Oil Industry in Japan Full-dress overseas expansion of business Construct export system of petroleum products Expand export of high-value added products Compete in developing Asian market Examples of business in abroad New refinery construction in Nghi Son, Vietnam p-xy production in South Korea Operating from Jan Hyundai Cosmo Petrochemical Cap. 800,000t/Y, in Daesang Refining, petrochemicals complex (Crude refining capacity: 200,000b/d) Idemitsu Kosan: 35.1%, KPE: 35.1%, PetroVietnam: 25.1%, Mitsui chemical: 4.7% Commercial operation: 2017 New refinery projects in Indonesia, Myanmar Under construction JX Energy SK Global Chemicals Cap. 1.0 Mt/Y, in Ulsan Planning Showa Shell Taiyo GS-Caltex Cap. 1.0 Mt/Y, in Yeosu-si 18

19 Growth Strategy of Oil Industry in Japan Reform of Refinery Petrochemicals Complex Cope with reform of refining complex to become flexible and competitive Enhance the management of safety and disaster-prevention based on the voluntary action program by Petroleum Association of Japan. Image of restructuring Refinery Complex Facility scrap Share of Utility Integration to the highly efficient facilities, increase utilization Restructuring by facility optimization 19

20 Growth Strategy of Oil Industry in Japan Comprehensive Energy Industrialization Government is now coping with energy system reform. Integrate electric power, petroleum, gas business into comprehensive energy business. Image of building comprehensive energy business electricity Power generation (oil, gas, coal, RN) oil Development of oil resources gas Development of gas resources Electricity, whole sale, Retail sale Oil refiner-distributer Core business Gas, whole sale, Retail sale functional Basic chemicals chemicals (p-xy, propylene, (LC film, etc) organic EL, etc) chemicals 20

21 Summary 1. Outline of Oil Industry in Japan Total primary energy consumption is decreasing, but the ratio of fossil fuel has increased after the Great East Japan Earthquake. Demand forecast for refined products is expected to decline at average annual rate of -1.3% from 2013 to Results of Solomon s Refinery Survey (2012) Crude oil cost cut, operational cost cut, improvement of profitability of by-products are required for the Japan s refineries. The downtime caused by turnarounds on critical process units must be a key area of focus for improvement in Japan as a whole 3. Growth Strategy of Oil Industry in Japan Oil companies are coping with further capacity reduction Specific projects to realize the growth strategy are coming into existence 21

22 Thank you for your attention 22

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