Natural Gas as Solid Foundation for Russia-Italy Economic Cooperation

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1 Natural Gas as Solid Foundation for Russia-Italy Economic Cooperation Sergei Komlev Head of Contract Structuring and Price Formation Gazprom Export Italy-Russia Industry Seminar, Milano, February 26, 2014

2 Gazprom is the Major Supplier of Natural Gas to Italy Russia is the major gas supplier of natural gas to Italy. Gazprom s share in Italian imports more than doubled over the last four years Other major suppliers are Algeria, Libya, and Qatar Italy is the third largest buyer of Russian gas Gazprom s export to Italy has been growing by 13.5% CAGR from 2010 in volume terms Price of Russia gas is in the mid-range of the Italian import prices Source: Gazprom Export, IEA ZMB 2

3 Cooperation on the Back of Declining Demand for Gas? Italian gas mix is very different from the European mix. Utilities are the major consumers of natural gas followed by commercial and residential buyers Power generation sector was the fastest growing market for gas in 2000s. But in the early 2010s prospects of this sector became unclear. Gas consumption in power generation has gone down when renewables were granted subsidies and priority dispatching In 2014, Italy consumed 63.8 bcm of gas. Natural gas demand dropped by 21.5 bcm since 2010 due to combined impact of renewables, coal and economic recession ZMB 3

4 Renewables are Eroding the Share of Gas in Power Generation, Especially Since 2009 Source: IEA ZMB 4

5 Conflicting Views on Italy s Long-Term Gas Demand Consensus forecast for long-term gas demand in Italy is optimistic, indicating recovery in consumption. It may grow by 21% in 2025 and by 23% in 2035 compared to 2014 Implementation of Italy s climate change targets by increasing wind and solar capacity to 100 TWh as outlined in its National Energy Strategy may result in 14% drop in gas demand by 2020 compared to ZMB 5

6 Demand Recovery and Decline in Indigenous Production Create New Opportunities for Gas Exporters According to consensus forecast, Italy will need to import 14 bcm more in 2025 and 15 bcm more gas in 2035 compared to 2014 ZMB 6

7 Italy Still Ranks as Major Gas Importer in National Energy Strategy Scenario Italy s National Energy Strategy realization will downsize its gas imports by 8 bcm in 2020 compared to 2014 ZMB 7

8 Italy is Indisputable European Leader in NGVs: Promising Area of Cooperation Country Number of natural gas vehicles (NGVs) Share Italy ,8% Ukraine ,6% Germany ,1% Russia ,6% Bulgaria ,6% Sweden ,3% France ,0% Europe total ,0% Monthly sales of natural gas as a vehicle fuel: 80 mln. cubic meters Source: Clean Fuels Consulting Country Total fuelling stations Share Italy ,9% Germany ,3% France 344 8,4% Ukraine 325 7,9% Russia 252 6,1% Sweden 203 4,9% Netherlands 194 4,7% Europe total ,0% Source: Clean Fuels Consulting ZMB 8

9 Full Costs of North American LNG are Higher than European Forward Hub Prices Source: Bloomberg, Wood Mackenzie, Gazprom Export estimates ZMB 9

10 Full Costs of USA LNG are Higher than European Hub Prices (2) Source: Bloomberg, Wood Mackenzie, Gazprom Export estimates ZMB 10

11 Turkish Stream Source: ICIS Heren European Gas Markets ZMB 11

12 Mix-up between Means and Ends in European Energy Policy Problem Desired Outcome Action Undertaken Unexpected Side Effects Practical Solutions Transport capacity hoarding by major suppliers Climate change Competition among shippers enhancement Emissions reduction Unbundling. Obligatory third party access. One shipper cannot hold more than 50% of the capacity. All types of fossil fuels are under fire Lack of interest of shippers to build new pipelines. Major projects postponed or abandoned (South Stream). Energy security is under threat Fossil fuels still needed at least as back-up fuel. In accordance with the merit order, preference is given to coal instead of gas. Emission are on the rise. In case there is one shipper there is no threat to competition. Investor has to get exemptions in order to make projects economically feasible. Emissions could be lowered by substitution of a higher emitting fossil fuel (coal) by a lower emitting (gas). Gas prices perceived to be not fully marketbased Change in pricing paradigm. Price reduction Breaking up a link between gas and oil in long-term contracts Paper gas trading on hubs leads to virtual gas glut. Prices are artificially reduced but remain derivatives of oil-indexed contracts. Few major suppliers threatened with antitrust prosecution prefer to deliver to other markets and/or downsize their firm delivery obligations. In order to balance the market and preserve longterm contracts with firm delivery obligations, buyer s nomination rights should be limited. Flat delivery contracts with 100% takeor-pay to be introduced. ZMB 12

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