ACC St. Louis Chapter An Insider s View of Major League Baseball s Salary Arbitration Process

Transcription

1 ACC St. Louis Chapter An Insider s View of Major League Baseball s Salary Arbitration Process May 17, 2012 Presented By: John Vuch Farm Director St. Louis Cardinals Harry W. (Hal) Wellford, Jr., Esq. Office Managing Shareholder Littler Mendelson, P.C. St. Louis Office 1

2 Some Ground Rules We are assuming some basic baseball knowledge We know just enough finance to get ourselves in trouble We will have time at the end for questions, but don t be shy about interrupting to ask one Brief History of Baseball Analytics Henry Chadwick, 1860 s Branch Rickey,

3 Brief History of Baseball Analytics Average Number of Runs Scored Per Team 3

4 Salary Arbitration Criteria The CBA salary arbitration criteria are: a) the quality of player s contribution to the team (including, but not limited to, his overall performance, special qualities of leadership and public appeal); b) the length and consistency of his career contributions; c) the record of the player s past compensation; d) comparative baseball salaries; e) the existence of any physical or mental defects on the part of the player; and f) the recent performance of the team, including but not limited to, their League standing and attendance as an indication of public acceptance. Arbitration Is All About Comparables Player Org Pos SV Hld ERA Career SV Career HLD 2011 Salary Perez, Christopher CLE RHR Hanrahan, Joel PIT RHR Breslow, Craig OAK LHR McClellan, Kyle STL RHR O'Day, Darren TEX RHR Ziegler, Brad OAK RHR Johnson, James BAL RHR O'Flaherty, Eric ATL LHR Smith, Joseph CLE RHR Mujica, Edward SD RHR Badenhop, Burke FLA RHR Slaten, Douglas WSH LHR Bray, William CIN LHR For relief pitchers, salary is driven by saves, holds and ERA 4

5 QUALITY OF CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE TEAM Why Craig Paquette is not an everyday starter Using the following five statistics, (which are all qualitative, rather than quantitative), Paquette s average rank would have been 28th out of 28 starting 3rd basemen Player 2000 Batting Avg On-base % 2000 Slugging Pct B Fielding Pct B Range Factor Paquette Average Starting* Major League Third Baseman * 27 Third Basemen were identified by Stats, Inc. as regulars (Paquette was not included as a regular ) 5

6 Building a Pitcher that Approximates Craig Paquette s Career Statistics Category Paquette s Career Closest Pitcher above # Pitchers Above Closest pitcher below # pitchers below Batting Average.239 Greg Maddux (.241) 57 of 66 Ramon Martinez (.238) 9 of 66 On-Base %.273 Greg Maddux (.285) 65 of 66 Pedro Martinez (.270) 1 of 66 Slugging Pct..420 Pat Hentgen (.421) 16 of 66 Pat Rapp (.419) 50 of 66 OB% + Slg. %.693 Mike Hampton (.698) K/BB 5.38 to 1 Pedro Martinez (4.11) 48 of 66 Al Leiter (.690) 18 of of 66 NONE 0 of 66 PUTTING THE PLAYER IN PERSPECTIVE EXHIBITS 6

7 Mop up Man vs. Fire Extinguisher Stats Inc. defines Close and Late situations as the 7th inning or later, with the tying run on base, at bat, or in the on deck circle. (e.g. 3 run lead with one man on base). Generally, a team desires to have their most reliable relievers pitching in those situations, while their least reliable relievers will be left to mop up in the one sided games, or in the earlier innings of the game. Who Gets the Ball With the Game on the Line? Pitcher Total Opp. AB's Close and Late Opp. AB's Close and Late Opp. AB% Veres, Dave % Christiansen, Jason % Morris, Matt % Timlin, Mike % Slocumb, Heathcliffe % James, Mike % Benes, Alan % All statistics obtained from Stats, Inc. Player Profiles 2001 Total Opponents AB s obtained by dividing Opp. Hits by Opp. Batting Average 7

8 Percentage of James Major League Service Spent on Disabled List Last Three Seasons 35% 174 Active Days 327 DL Days 65% Disabled List Active 8

9 GOTCHA EXHIBITS 9

10 Gotcha Exhibit RICK ANKIEL EXHIBITS 10

11 Rick Ankiel s Transition From 1 MLS Pitcher to 4 MLS Outfielder 1 MLS end of MLS PY in Seasons 34 IP, 6.62 ERA 0 PA as an OF Last pitches effectively in 2000 regular season before infamously losing his command in the 2000 post season. DCS G1: Becomes first pitcher in 110 years with 5 Wild Pitches in one inning. Extreme wildness continues as Cards lose 2000 NLCS in 5 games. Ankiel s final postseason record: 2 GS, 4 IP, ERA. Ankiel never returns to form. Out of Minor League options since Oct 2003, Ankiel enters his 4 MLS platform year with virtually no performance in his last six seasons. Since retiring as a pitcher in Spring Training 2005, Ankiel has: No Major League performance in 2005 No Major or Minor League performance in 2006 (hurt all season) Ankiel enters his 4 MLS platform season with no Major League performance as an outfielder From 2001 Through 2006, Ankiel Was Paid Over $2.7 Million & Earned MLS, While Contributing Little at the Major League Level Pitching Contribution Outfield Contribution DL Days MLS Actual Earnings Year GS IP ERA GS PA OPS MLB Minors Credited Regular Seas. Playoff Shares Total days $400,000 $4,614 $404, N/A days $400,000 $23,899 $423, N/A 50 0 days $320,000 $320, Full Season $320,000 $163,379 $483, N/A 37 2 days $407,893 $407, N/A 183 Full Season $335,000 $358,885 $693,885 Total N/A $2,182,893 $550,777 $2,733,670 Ankiel not on any Post Season Rosters during this time It was a gamble for the Cardinals organization. They had great belief in Rick Ankiel and had been there with him throughout it all. Rick Ankiel, on his personal website 11

12 Ankiel acknowledges that only the Cardinals would have supported him during his lengthy & expensive transition Ankiel s personal website ( When the baseball world turned away from Rick Ankiel and it seemed easy to quit in light of the adversity, he buckled down. Only the St. Louis Cardinals, his family and friends and his amazing wife stayed behind him Remarkably, the Cardinals still had enough belief in Rick s progress before his knee injury that they assigned him to begin the [2006] season at their AAA team Ankiel s Platform Season: Six Good Weeks Sandwiched Between Mediocrity & Injury Batting Average Unavailable Unavailable Limited to pinch hitting MLB CF Average (.268) Ankiel (.264) Injured Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 6 weeks of hitting.326 vs. 4 ½ months of hitting just.230 (when not injured) 12

13 Ankiel s Weaknesses Were Easily Exploited by Opposing Clubs Ankiel struggled against LHP.224 AVG /.268 OBP /.448 SLG in 123 PA which made it easier for opposing managers to match up in late innings.185/.231/.321 in 173 PA vs. relief pitchers rendering him ineffective when the game was on the line /.195/.225 in 77 Late & Close PA resulting in the Cardinals eventually benching him against left handed pitchers. From July 19 th until he was shut down on September 10 th, Ankiel was benched for each of the Cardinals 14 games against left-handed starting pitchers Ankiel s 2008 Injuries Are Only the Latest in a Chronic History of Physical Defects Min Lg DL Days Min Lg DL Days 2008 Unavailable 5/17 5/ Maj Lg DL Days 2002 Missed entire 2002 season Min Lg DL Days 2005 Missed multiple games DH only for 1+ month 2008 Unavailable to play in field Pinch hit only 7/27 8/ Minor Lg DL Days 2008 Unavailable 9/10 EoS Maj Lg DL Days 2008 Unavailable 6/4 6/ Maj DL days; Missed entire 06 season 13

14 Ankiel Has Not Established Himself as an Everyday Player CANNOT BE COUNTED ON FOR A FULL SEASON OF PRODUCTIVITY Unable to stay healthy Has never qualified for a batting title (502 PA min.) Below average defender in centerfield Benched against left handed pitchers Ends season as a platoon corner OF Even if healthy, Ankiel will have to compete for playing time in 2009 Marcus Thames, With 25 Hrs in Limited Play, Received a $1M Raise in Jan 09 5 MLS Rick Ankiel (2009) vs. 4 MLS Marcus Thames (2009) 2008 HR RBI Player MLS G PA R H 2B 3B TB XBH BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG OPS Rick Ankiel Marcus Thames HR RBI Player MLS G PA R H 2B 3B TB XBH BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG OPS Rick Ankiel Marcus Thames HR RBI Player MLS G PA R H 2B 3B TB XBH BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG OPS Rick Ankiel Marcus Thames Career through B HR RBI TB Player MLS G PA R H 2B XBH BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG OPS Rick Ankiel Marcus Thames Thames Ankiel (Cardinals) Ankiel (Player) 2008 $1,275,000 $975,000 $975, $2,275,000 $2,350,000 $3,300,000 Under the criteria for salary arbitration, when a player achieves the same statistics as another player and takes one less year to do it, the players are expected to be paid the same. When two players then again perform similarly the next season, this criteria requires that the two players again be paid the same. Scott Boras, Player presentation Joe Oliver vs. Cincinnati Reds (1992) 14

15 The Club s Offer Represents the Highest Salary Ever for an Arbitration eligible Player With Fewer Than 900 Career Plate Appearances Arbitration Eligible Position Players with <900 Career Plate Appearances (Salary >= $1 million) Name Team MLS Salary Career Thru PA DL Rick Ankiel (PLAYER) STL $3,300, Rick Ankiel (MIDPOINT) STL $2,825, Rick Ankiel (CLUB) STL $2,350, Michael Napoli LAA $2,000, Kelly Shoppach CLE $1,950, David Ross CIN $1,600, Casey Kotchman LAA $1,475, Ross Gload KC $1,450, Homer Bush TOR $1,450, Jason Kubel MIN $1,312, Wily Mo Pena CIN $1,250, Robert Fick DET $1,250, Matthew Diaz ATL $1,225, Mike Lieberthal PHI $1,200, Greg Dobbs PHI $1,150, Mike Simms TEX $1,100, Robb Quinlan LAA $1,050, Josh Bard SD $1,050, Esteban German KC $1,000, Russ Davis SEA $1,000, Ryan Theriot vs. Chicago Cubs (Shortstop; MLS) Cubs Submission Figure: $2,600,000 Player s Submission Figure: $3,400,000 Midpoint: $3,000,000 Your Decision? 15

16 Ryan Theriot vs. Chicago Cubs The player argues the following points: In his first three full seasons, Theriot has established himself as one of the most consistent and dependable shortstops in Major League Baseball. After Theriot became the starting shortstop in 2007, the Cubs won back toback division titles for the first time in 100 years. In his second full season, Theriot played a significant role in the Cubs second consecutive division title. It was the first time in 100 years that the Cubs made the postseason in back to back years. Theriotcompares favorably to other Major League shortstops in offensive and defensive statistics. Chicago Cubs Franchise History: Ryan Theriot vs. Chicago Cubs The club argues the following points: Theriot failed to lead the Cubs in major offensive categories. Theriot has below average offensive production for a regular shortstop. 2008: Even in his best season Theriot was still a below average offensive shortstop. 2009: Theriot continued to be a below average offensive shortstop in his platform season. Theriot consistently ranks at the bottom of the league in power production. Theriot s performance routinely declines in the second half and down the stretch. Theriot had below average defensive performance for a regular shortstop. 16

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19 Questions? 19