Some features of criticality

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1 CRITICALITY OF MINERAL RAW MATERIALS AND SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT E x p e r t W o r k s h o p o n S e c u r i t y o f S u p p l y a n d S c a r c i t y o f R a w M a t e r i a l s R a n c o, I t a l y, N o v e m b e r

2 Some features of criticality Criticality is a relative concept Criticality has at least two dimensions Some sort of risk generally risk of supply interruptions Some sort of impact generally economic At least two dimensions are connected by a logical AND Raw materials are not critical in themselves, they are critical to somebody (for some reason or set of reasons) at some point in time Countries or group of countries Parts of countries Sectors Companies Instrument to highlight current issues and inform policy or business decisions Seite 2

3 Defining critical raw materials for the EU Three reasons why some materials may be considered critical: first, they have a significant economic importance for key sectors, second, the EU is faced with high supply risks [ ] and third, there is currently a lack of substitutes. Need to define metrics for each in order to determine criticality. COM (2008) 699 The Raw Materials Initiative Indicators from Critical raw materials for the EU (Ad-hoc working group on defining critical raw materials, 2010) Seite 3

4 Some data limitations encountered during the 2010 EU exercise Production statistics differentiated by quality Specially relevant for industrial minerals Life cycle data Only cradle to gate possible Data not available for all raw materials in the assessment Trade statistics Detail, completeness and correctness of reported data Relevant for import dependence and availability of secondary raw materials Recycling indicators Quality of data and assumptions varies widely Most complete current source: UNEP report (but heavy reliance on extrapolations and expert judgment) Seite 4

5 EU methodology What it does Provide transparent estimates for the relative ranking both in supply risk and economic importance Give relative ranking at one point in time (snapshot) Compare raw materials on the basis of their economic benefit to society Considers all uses of a raw material Explicitly acknowledge contribution of secondary raw materials to supply Emphasizes the importance of substitution What it doesn t Provide a view into the future beyond the lifetime of the indicators used Consider the effect of market size (e.g. scale of problem and rate of change of indicators) Explicitly consider the interdependence between different metal markets (both on the supply and the demand side) See also Buijs, Sievers and Tercero Espinoza: Limits to the critical raw materials approach, Waste and Resource Management 2012 (in press) Seite 5

6 Minerals, Critical Minerals, and the US Economy (USA, 2007) U.S. consumption (value) Substitutability U.S. import dependence Ratio of world reserves to production Ratio of world reserve base to production World by-product production U.S. secondary production Critical metals in strategic energy technologies (EU, 2011) Limitations to expanding world supply Concentration of supply Political risk related to major suppliers Likelihood of rapid demand growth Method of metal criticality determination (2012) Depletion times (reserves) Companion metal fraction Policy potential index Human development index WGI: Political stability Global supply concentration Substitute perf. and avail. Net import reliance LCA cradle-to-gate: human health and ecosystems... Kritische Rohstoffe für DE (Germany, 2011) Consumption DE vs. world Change in the above Change in imports Sensitivity of value chains Demand from emerging technologies Substitutability Critical Materials Strategy (USA, 2010) Basic availability Competing technology demand Political, regulatory and social factors Co-dependence on other markets Producer diversity Demand for clean energy Substitutability Material Security (UK, 2008) Global consumption levels Lack of substitutability Global warming potential Total material/ environmental requirement Physical scarcity Monopoly supply Seite 6

7 Criticality and sustainability assessment Definition of critical raw materials Security of supply Political Economical Social Environmental Economic or policy importance of metals and minerals Sustainability assessment by LCA Non-renewable use of resources Depletion of abiotic resources Several other impact categories Seite 7

8 Defining supply risk: The EU approach Material properties are not included! Seite 8

9 Acknowledging the contribution and potential of recycling Growth through larger, more affluent population Saturation when? Tercero Espinoza (2012): The contribution of recycling to the supply of metals and minerals. In Deliverable 2.1 of the FP7 POLINARES Project. Available at Seite 9

10 The role of geography: Europe, dependence, globalization and burden shifting Example: Cobalt EU completely dependent on imports ( 20% of world production) 2/3 of cobalt products produced in Europe are sold outside of Europe 20% of cobalt demand worldwide is for battery production (Li-ion for electronic devices) but these are not produced in the EU! Based on data from Eurometeaux for the report Critical Raw Materials for the EU (2010); see also Tercero Espinoza (2011) / POLINARES Project (http://www.polinares.eu/docs/events/polinares_events_tw2_minerals_supply_chain_bottlenecks.pdf) Seite 10

11 Market size (tonnes, 2010) of EU CRM Market size is a factor in: Overall environmental impact Magnitude of investment necessary to increase supply Rate of change of indicators, e.g. Concentration of supply Distribution of end uses Limitations to expanding supply of co- and by-products And impact of these Data from Critical raw materials for the EU (2010), World Mining Data (2012), USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries (2012) Seite 11

12 Speed of change in indicators: Can we keep up? How long-lived should results be? Based on production data courtesy of BGR, World Governance Index: Seite 12

13 Influence of technological change Results from the POLINARES Project, based on: Ad-hoc working group on defining critical raw materials: Critical raw materials for the EU (2010); Fraunhofer ISI / IZT: Rohstoffe für Zukunftstechnologien (2009); BGR Commodity Top News 33 (2010); Fraunhofer ISI: Lithium für Zukunftstechnologien (2009); U.S. DoE: Critical materials strategy (2010). See also Buijs, Sievers and Tercero Espinoza: Limits to the critical raw materials approach, Waste and Resource Management 2012 (in press) Seite 13

14 Some items for a wish list Substitutability mapping and monitoring USGS publishes useful assessment, but necessarily vague Environmental impact data for all materials at similar quality Environmental impacts tied to geography Global recycling rates (not extrapolations) see next slide Production statistics differentiated by quality More detailed trade statistics Seite 14

15 W ish list: Dynamic substance flow analysis Modeling work for the International Copper Association (publication in preparation by Glöser, Soulier and Tercero Espinoza) Seite 15

16 W ish list: Capturing the dynamics of raw materials markets Preliminary results from the project Value from Waste (part of the ERA-NET AERTOs) Seite 16

17 Linking LCA to criticality Where can criticality ideas be included in LCA? Should they be included at all? Where can LCA thinking be included in criticality assessments? Seite 17

18 CRITICALITY OF MINERAL RAW MATERIALS AND SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT E x p e r t W o r k s h o p o n S e c u r i t y o f S u p p l y a n d S c a r c i t y o f R a w M a t e r i a l s R a n c o, I t a l y, N o v e m b e r Dr. Luis A. TERCERO ESPINOZA Coordinator of Business Unit Systemic Risks Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI Competence Center Sustainability and Infrastructure Systems Breslauer Str. 48, Karlsruhe, Germany Tel: Fax:

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