Economic Outlook of Distributed Generation: Insights from the UNDP-CEDRO Project Part 1; SHW & PV

Transcription

1 Economic Outlook of Distributed Generation: Insights from the UNDP-CEDRO Project Part 1; SHW & PV Hassan Harajli Beirut Energy Forum 29 th September 2011

2 Funding Management Budget Timeframe Partners Lebanon Recovery Fund by means of a grant from Government of Spain United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) 9.73 million USD Oct 2007 Oct 2013 Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW) Ministry of Finance (MoF) Ministry of Economy and Trade (MoET) Council for Development & Reconstruction (CDR)

3 SUSTAINABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGY APPLICATIONS Completed On going Planned Number of sites PV system Large SHW systems Energy efficient lighting PV street lighting LED street lighting Dimming street lighting Microwind (hybrid with PV) Ground source heat pump Micro hydro

4 All over the Country

5 Distributed Generation CSP Hydro Offshore wind Onshore wind Medium to large scale RE Microwind PV SHW Bioenergy u CHP (e.g. Fuel cells) ASHP GSHP Small scale RE; Microgeneration 5

6 HERMEL GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL 4,000 Liters

7 SAIDA GOVERNMENTAL HOSPITAL 6,000 Liters

8 Hosh El Oumara Community Center (Bekaa)

9 PV Balance of System

10 Data logging

11 SHW Techno-economic appraisal Technical Input parameters; Irradiance; is a measure of solar radiation energy received on a given surface area in a given time. It is commonly expressed in watts per square meter (W/m 2 ) or kilowatt-hours per square meter per day (kwh/m 2 /day). Solar hot water (SHW) energy produced, in kwh Boiler consumption, in kwh assuming efficiency of boiler at 70% Solar fraction; the percentage of demand satisfied by SHW Optimization of system was done for winter months

12 Irradiance kwh/m2/day Annual average; 5.01 kwh/m2/day

13 12500 SOLAR ENERGY PRODUCED kwh(th) Annual Total: 133,154 kwh(th)

14 Solar energy produced Boiler Energy kwh(th) Total annual energy consumed; 215,509 kwhth

15 100% Solar Fraction 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Annual average; 61.8%

16 1800 Total diesel saved liters Total annual diesel saved; 19,084 liters

17 Economic input parameters Input parameters Scenario 1 Without support Scenario 2 With NEEREA 1 Capital cost with installation 75,000 USD 75,000 USD 2 Maintenance cost Assumed 2% of capital cost per annum Assumed 2% of capital cost per annum 3 Lifetime 20 years 20 years 4 Discount rate 8% 0% 5 Diesel cost (USD/liter) Range Range Payment terms Upfront 4 year grace period

18 Scenario 1 USD Net Present value LBP/20 liters USD/liter Simple payback period (years)

19 Scenario 2: NEEREA Net Present value USD LBP/20 liters USD/liter Payback period

20 NEEREA SHW through ESCO eyes NEEREA offers an ideal opportunity for ESCOs in the form of third party financing at 0% interest Loan can be taken by ESCO and paid for by savings on diesel from institutions Monitoring is key ESCO paid = X% of savings until loan amount paid, where savings = liters x average monthly price minus maintenance costs A formula can be established / agreed between institution and ESCO Liters saved Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb

21 Saida Example Revisited Random 75% of liters saved formula until loan repaid Diesel price (USD/liter) Year

22 PV Systems Preliminary techno-economic appraisal 1.8 kwp PV System with full back up Cost app. 14,000 USD (full system), of which 2,500 USD are for batteries Maintenance cost (Change of batteries once over lifetime of system) Annual output (max) is 2633 kwh Similar 15 Ampere diesel rent is assumed to be $60 per month System lifetime; 20 years

23 Scenario 1; Baseline continues over 20 year lifetime Category USD NPV 5,852 Cost benefit ratio 0.61 Discounted payback period 16.6 Simple payback period 32 Scenario 2; 24 HR electricity from year 5 (therefore no battery change, tariff adjustment acc. to MoEW 2010) Category USD Cost benefit ratio 0.44 NPV 7,882 Discounted payback period 45 Simple payback period 26.7 All scenarios assume net metering is enabled

24 Scenario 3; Feed in law Level of feed in subsidy should be set against the levelised cost of the PV technology, including a degression rate and annual reviews. We can actually include the benefits of displaced diesel generation assumed for 5 years until 24 hr electricity is guaranteed. The Internal rate of return (the IRR of an investment is the discount rate at which the net present value of costs of the investment equals the net present value of the benefits of the investment is taken to be either 8% or 5%.

25 FiT required today 8% Category Unit NPV $0 Cost benefit ratio 1 Discounted payback period 20 years Simple payback period 11 years FiT required on all units generated $c43/kwh 5% Category Unit NPV $0 Cost benefit ratio 1 Discounted payback period 20 years Simple payback period 13 years FiT required on all units generated $c33/kwh

26 FiT; ; a key to an unmade door? Ussually FiT is supported through a slight increase in electricity price for all electricity users However in Lebanon tariffs do not cover the cost of generation Will established a Fund for FiT subsidy do in a country where national revenues are in dire conditions? Example; 100 MW of PV over 10 years (each system supported grandfathered with FiT for 20 years).

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28 Please contact CEDRO at: T/F: E: cedro@undp lebprojects.org undp.org Beirut, Maarad Street, Building 287B, 1 st floor