Windsor-Essex HARS Special Initiative Study. Background Report One: Housing Needs Analysis. FINAL March 2010

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1 Windsor-Essex HARS Special Initiative Study FINAL March 2010 Prepared by:

2 Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) ii

3 Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction to Background Report One: Needs Analysis Background and Objective Analysis of Housing Need Population Household Growth Household Size and Type Condition of Housing Stock Economic Characteristics Changes in Household Tenure Changes in Household Income Changes in OW, ODSP Changes in Housing Supply New Housing Supply Changes in Ownership Market Changes in Rental Market Changes in Social Housing Summary of Public Consultation Results Changes in Emergency and Transitional Housing Changes in Supportive Housing Inventory of Support Services Changes in Housing Affordability Changes in Housing Needs ( ) Directions in Addressing Housing Needs...88 Appendix A: Additional Tables...91 Appendix B: Consultation Participants Appendix C: Bibliography Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) iii

4 List of Tables Table 1: Population Growth Between 2001 and 2006 in Essex County... 5 Table 2: Trends in Household Size by Municipality, Table 3: Condition of Dwellings by Municipality, Table 4: Unemployment Rates throughout Windsor-Essex County, Table 5: Labour Force by Industry in Essex County and Ontario, 2001 and Table 6: Labour Force Characteristics in the Windsor CMA, January and February Table 7: Incidence of Low Income, Table 8: Average Ontario Works Caseload in Windsor-Essex County, Table 9: Maximum Monthly Shelter Allowance for Ontario Works and Ontario Disability Support Program (ODSP) Recipients Table 10: Housing Starts in Windsor CMA, Table 11: Housing Starts in Leamington CA, Table 12: Housing Completions in Windsor CMA, Table 13: Housing Completions in Leamington CA, Table 14: Historical Comparison of Housing Prices in the City of Windsor, Table 15: Resale Housing Activity in the Windsor CMA, Table 16: Private Rental Market Vacancies and Rates in Windsor CMA, Table 17: Private Rental Market Vacancies and Rates in Leamington CA, Table 18: Gross Rent as a Percentage of 2005 Household Income for Tenant Households Table 19: Summary of Modified Units in Windsor-Essex County, As of February Table 20: Total Non-Profit Housing Supply by Mandate, Windsor-Essex, As of January Table 21: Windsor-Essex Central Housing Registry Waiting List by Household Type and Unit Size Requested, 2007 and Table 22: A Comparison of Public Housing Demand and Supply in Windsor-Essex County by Unit Size, December Table 23: Summary of the Emergency and Transitional Housing Stock in Windsor-Essex, January Table 24: Summary of Special Needs Housing Stock in Windsor-Essex, January Table 25: Housing Providers with Support Agencies Table 26: Fall-Term Enrolment for Full-Time Students at the University of Windsor, 2003 to Table 27: Fall-Term Enrollment for Full-Time Students at St. Clair College, 2003 to Table 28: Population Aged 65+ by Municipality, Windsor-Essex, Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) iv

5 Table 29: Snapshot of Retirement Homes in Windsor and Essex County, 2007 and Table 30: Profile of Long-Term Care Homes in Windsor-Essex County Table 31: Long-Term Care Home Rates for Residents, as set by the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Cares Table 32: Comparison of Aboriginal and non-aboriginal Households in the Windsor CMA and Leamington CA, Table 33: Place of Birth for Recent Immigrants, Essex County, 2001 and Table 34: Summary of Support Services in Windsor-Essex Table 35: Household Income by Percentage Breakdown in Windsor-Essex County, Table 36: Comparison of Average and Affordable Rents in the Windsor CMA, by Unit Size Table 37: Comparison of Average and Affordable Rents in the Leamington CA, by Unit Size Table 38: Comparison of Social Housing Demand and Supply, List of Figures Figure 1: Population Growth in Essex County, Figure 2: Percentage Growth in Essex County s Population, Figure 3: Population Growth in Essex County by Age Cohort, Figure 4: Household Growth by Municipality, Figure 5: Trends in Household Size in Essex County, Figure 6: Household Types in Essex County, (Proportion of Households) Figure 7: Household Types in Essex County, (Absolute Numbers) Figure 8: Age of Housing Stock in Essex County and Ontario in Figure 9: Labour Force Participation Rate in Essex County and Ontario, 2001 and Figure 10: Monthly Unemployment Rate in Windsor CMA, Figure 11: Unemployment Rate Across Ontario on March 13, Figure 12: Household Tenure in Essex County, Figure 13: Trends in Household Tenure in Essex County, Figure 14: Household Tenure in Essex County and Ontario, Figure 15: Trends in Tenure in Essex County, Figure 16: Average and Median Incomes in Essex County by Municipality, Figure 17: Average and Median Income in Essex County, Figure 18: Low-Income Population in Essex County, Figure 19: Average Ontario Works Caseload in Windsor-Essex County, Figure 20: Average Monthly Caseload for Ontario Works in Windsor-Essex County, Figure 21: Average Monthly Caseload for Ontario Disability Support Program (ODSP) in Windsor-Essex County, Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) iv

6 Figure 22: Housing Completions in Windsor CMA ( ) and Leamington CA ( ) Figure 23: Rate of Homeownership in Essex County and City of Windsor, Figure 24: Average House Price in Windsor-Essex, Figure 25: Average Resale Price in Windsor CMA, Figure 26: Vacancy Rates in Windsor CMA and Leamington CA, Figure 27: Average Market Rents by Unit Size in Windsor CMA and Leamington CA, Figure 28: Portion of Income Spent by Renter Households on Shelter in Windsor- Essex County, Figure 29: Social Housing Stock in Windsor-Essex County, by Type of Provider 40 Figure 30: Social and Non-Profit Housing Stock in Windsor-Essex County, by Program Name Figure 31: Social and Non-Profit Stock in Windsor-Essex County, by Location. 42 Figure 32: Social and Non-Profit Stock in Windsor-Essex County, by Unit Size. 42 Figure 33: Social and Non-Profit Housing Stock in Windsor-Essex County, by Building Mandate Figure 34: Social Housing Waiting List in Windsor-Essex County, Figure 35: Social Housing Waiting List, as of December Figure 36: Households on Social Housing Waiting List in Windsor-Essex County in 2007 and 2008, by Household Type Figure 37: Number of People Served at the Salvation Army's Shelter in Windsor, Figure 38: Number of People Served by Well-Come Shelter, Figure 39: Number of People Served by Hiatus House, Figure 40: Number of Clients Served by Unit 7 Drop-In Centre, Figure 41: Seniors' Income in Windsor CMA and Ontario, 2000 and Figure 42: Vacancy Rates in South-western Ontario by County in Figure 43: Retirement Homes' Rental Rates in the City of Windsor and Essex County by Unit Type, Figure 44: Aboriginal Population in Essex County by Municipality, Figure 45: Distribution of Aboriginal Population in Essex County by Municipality, Figure 46: Shelter-to-Income-Ration (STIR) in Windsor CMA and Leamington CA, Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) iv

7 Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) v

8 1.0 Introduction to Background Report One: Needs Analysis 1.1 Background and Objective The first component of the Windsor/Essex HARS Special Initiatives Study is the Housing Needs Analysis. Background Report One comprises this phase of the study. The analysis of housing need provides information and insight into the housing needs of Windsor/Essex. This report builds upon the HARS 2004 report and indicates where there have been changes in housing need. Similar to the 2004 report, although not as extensive, this report provides an overview of local population and household characteristics including an analysis of current economic and income conditions. It also outlines changes in the various housing sectors (rental market housing, ownership housing, social housing, emergency and transitional housing, and special needs housing). In identifying such changes this section of the study will identify opportunities to address future housing needs within the communities of Windsor/Essex (HAC Goal #5). It should be emphasized that this section of the study puts a particular emphasis on identifying accessibility needs and challenges (HAC Goal #2). The overall aim of this report is to provide an analysis of present and future housing needs facing Windsor/Essex. 1.2 Approach The housing needs analysis incorporates a comprehensive review of current data, literature reviews and an extensive consultation process. This study has incorporated the findings of several data and research sources, these include: Statistics Canada Community Profile data and Custom Tabulations Research and data from agencies such as Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and Service Canada Reports and data provided by local agencies and organizations, including local housing providers, the Windsor/Essex Community Housing Corporation, and municipal staff departments Ongoing consultation with HAC Community consultation process (see below) A complete bibliography can be found in Appendix C. Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 1

9 1.2.1 Community Consultation Process This phase of the study incorporates a number of community consultation activities, including: Project Announcement a brief overview of the study, outlining the overall goals and deliverables of the project, was distributed to almost 100 individuals, agencies, and various organizations throughout the City and County. Telephone Interviews a series of telephone interviews were held with municipal and county staff, local agencies and organizations, and others to assist in identifying housing needs and in identifying opportunities to improve housing in Windsor/Essex. A list of who was interviewed can be found in Appendix B. Focus Groups a series of five focus groups were held throughout this study. o Focus Group A was aimed at identifying social housing needs. It was held in November 2008 and was attended by 12 participants. o Focus Group B was aimed at identifying special housing needs. It was held in November and was attended by 25 participants, including representation from 14 community agencies from various sectors (persons with physical disabilities, persons with developmental delays, Aboriginal services, homelessness, shelters, youth services, new immigrant services, multicultural services). o Focus Group C was held with social housing applicants and tenants and is aimed at identifying the dynamics of delivery and administration of programs. Focus Group C was held March, there was a session in the City and a second in the County. Approximately 60 participants attended the session in the City and 5 participants attended in the County. A complete list of participants (by focus group) can be found in Appendix B. 1.3 Study Area The study area for this Special Initiative study is the same area used in the 2004 HARS Report. The study area, therefore, is comprised of the County of Essex and the City of Windsor. This area includes the City of Windsor and seven municipalities. These municipalities are the: Town of Amherstburg Town of Essex Town of Kingsville Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 2

10 Town of Lakeshore Town of LaSalle Municipality of Leamington Town of Tecumseh The Township of Pelee is a separated municipality from the County of Essex, but it is included in the Service Manager s catchment area and in many of the statistics provided by Statistics Canada. For the purposes of this report, totals reported as County include the City of Windsor, County of Essex, and the Township of Pelee. For the purposes of CMHC data, the Windsor CMA includes the City of Windsor and the municipalities of Amherstburg, Lakeshore, LaSalle and Tecumseh. Leamington is a Census Agglomeration (CA) that includes Kingsville and Leamington. Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 3

11 2.0 Analysis of Housing Need Population and household characteristics are important indicators in determining housing need. The following sections provide an update of the 2004 HARS report on housing need; this includes changes in housing demand (household characteristics, population characteristics, economic characteristics, and household income) and changes in housing supply (rental housing, homeownership housing, social housing, emergency and transitional housing, and special needs housing). 2.1 Changes in Housing Demand Population In 2006, Windsor/Essex had a total population of 393,402 persons. This represents an increase of almost 5% from 2001, which has slowed slightly from the growth rate of 7% experienced in the area from 1996 to The 5% growth rate from 2001 to 2006 is also slightly below the overall growth rate of 6.6% for the province during this time period. The Municipality of Lakeshore experienced the highest rate of population growth at 15.7%, followed by Pelee at 12.1%, Lasalle at 9.4%, Amherstburg at 6.9%, and Leamington by 6.2%. Both the municipalities of Essex and Tecumseh showed a decline in population growth by 53 and 881 individuals respectfully. Consultation activities have indicated that the 2008/2009 economic downturn appears to have led to an out-migration of individuals seeking employment opportunities elsewhere, although there is no detailed data available to measure the extent to which this is happening. The greatest proportion of the population remains in the City of Windsor, with 55% of the total population, followed by the Municipality of Lakeshore with 8.5% of the population. Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 4

12 Figure 1: Population Growth in Essex County, Municipality Windsor Tecumseh Pelee Leamington LaSalle Lakeshore Kingsville Essex Amherstburg 15,684 19,320 23,151 25,105 24, ,760 22,696 25,389 27,138 28,833 14,001 16,628 20,566 25,285 27,652 21,450 23,720 26,127 28,746 33,245 16,649 17,330 18,409 19,619 20,908 16,976 18,386 19,437 20,085 20,032 16,447 17,578 19,273 20,339 21, , , , , ,473 Table 1: Population Growth Between 2001 and 2006 in Essex County Location Growth (%) Amherstburg 6.9% Essex -0.3% Kingsville 6.6% Lakeshore 15.7% LaSalle 9.4% Leamington 6.2% Pelee 12.1% Tecumseh -3.5% Windsor 3.9% Essex County 4.9% Ontario 6.6% Source: Statistics Canada, Community Profiles, 2001 and , , , , ,000 Population Source: Statistics Canada, Community Profiles, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001, and 2006 The 2004 HARS report found that Windsor/Essex displayed a younger population overall compared to provincial statistics. This remains accurate for 2006, although the gap is narrowing. The proportion of the population under the age of 19 in 2006 was 0.9% higher in Windsor/Essex compared to the province. Similarly, the proportion of the population over the age of 60 was 0.3% lower in Windsor/Essex compared with the province. Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 5

13 Information for 2006 indicates that the population is getting increasingly older (by proportion). In general, the population under the age of 35 has demonstrated a steady decline in proportion from 1986 to While seeing some fluctuation, the population over the age of 35 has, overall, shown an increase in proportion. The proportion of the population under the age of 19, for example, decreased from 26.9% (2001) to 25.9% (2006). At the same time, the proportion of the population between the ages of 45 and 54 years increased by 1.0%. In addition, the proportion of the population over the age of 65 years increased by 0.5%. Figure 2: Percentage Growth in Essex County s Population, Proportion of County Population 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 29.4% 28.1% 27.4% 26.9% 25.9% 25.2% 24.1% 23.0% 21.2% 19.7% 13.6% 15.0% 15.6% 16.5% 15.6% 10.0% 10.7% 12.4% 13.6% 14.6% 10.1% 9.3% 8.6% 9.0% 10.8% 6.7% 7.6% 7.7% 7.0% 6.9% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% 5.8% 6.4% Age Group Source: Statistics Canada, Community Profiles, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001, and 2006 Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 6

14 Figure 3: Population Growth in Essex County by Age Cohort, Year % -0.9% -4.6% -0.5% -1.3% -3.0% -2.3% -1.1% -2.7% 14.1% 11.1% 17.2% 7.1% 4.3% 1.9% 11.6% 24.0% 8.2% 9.2% 5.2% 13.3% 17.8% 11.2% 17.1% 1.1% 12.4% 27.0% 3.4% 16.5% 9.6% 42.6% 33.9% 27.3% 59.5% 82.4% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Population Growth Source: Statistics Canada, Community Profiles, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001, and 2006 Based on population projections (January 2009), it is expected that the population growth will slow to a rate of 1.5% from 2006 to 2011 in Windsor/Essex. Following this slow down, the projections indicate that population will gradually return to higher levels of growth until 2021 when the population growth starts to decline as a result of the aging population. These findings are based on the Reference Scenario of the population projections. Recent data provided by Statistics Canada for the Windsor CMA, which includes the City of Windsor, and the municipalities of Amherstburg, Lakeshore, Lasalle, and Tecumseh, shows a total population of 273,100 as of February This represents an increase of 0.3% from February Household Growth While population is an important indicator of housing markets, housing need is more directly related to the number and type of households, as the range of dwelling units required in the housing market corresponds directly to Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 7

15 characteristics and trends of households comprising the Windsor/Essex housing market. From 1991 to 2006, the Windsor/Essex area saw the number of households increase by 26.1%. This is comparable to the overall growth experienced by the province (25.2%). The Municipality of LaSalle experienced considerable growth at 80.5%. Since 2001, the Windsor/Essex area has experienced a household growth rate of 6.8%. This is slightly below the provincial average of 8.0%. The Municipalities of Lakeshore (17.6%) and Lasalle (11.2%) and to a lesser extent Amherstburg (9.7%) and Kingsville (9.4%) experienced a higher than average (compared to the county or province) growth rate. Figure 4: Household Growth by Municipality, Amherstburg 12.0% 12.9% 9.1% 9.7% Essex 13.0% 9.8% 6.5% 3.0% Kingsville 6.7% 8.6% 6.6% 9.4% Lakeshore 13.9% 13.2% 12.4% 17.6% LaSalle 22.4% 27.3% 27.5% 11.2% Location Leamington 6.0% 11.3% 6.1% 5.9% Pelee -9.1% -13.0% 10.0% Tecumseh 24.8% 23.0% 13.1% 1.3% Windsor 2.7% 5.9% 6.0% 5.5% Essex County 6.4% 9.2% 8.1% 6.8% Ontario 12.9% 7.9% 7.5% 8.0% -25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Population Growth (%) Source: Statistics Canada, Community Profiles, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001, and 2006 Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 8

16 This growth resulted in an increase in total households from 112,410 in 1991 to 141,305 in 2001, to 150,845 by Thus, in the most recent Census period from 2001 to 2006, the Windsor housing market grew by approximately 9,500 households, or close to 2,000 per year Household Size and Type Average household size in Windsor/Essex has remained stable at 2.6 persons per household from 2001 to Overall, in 2006 the average household size ranged from 2.5 to 3.0 persons per household. LaSalle recorded the largest average size at 3.0, while the City of Windsor was at the smaller end at 2.5 persons per household. Table 2: Trends in Household Size by Municipality, Location Amherstburg Essex Kingsville Lakeshore LaSalle Leamington Pelee Tecumseh City of Windsor Essex County Ontario Source: Statistics Canada, 1986, 1991, 1996 & 2001 Census The HARS Report (2004) reported an increase in the number of one and two person households from 51.2% in 1986 to 56.5% in This has further increased to 58.0% in This is comparable to the province which, based on the 2006 Census, had 56.1% of its households comprised of one or two persons. The number of households with more than six persons declined slightly to 3.1% in 2006, just slightly below the provincial average of 3.5%. Notably, while household size is in decline, there remains almost one-quarter (22.9%) of households comprised of four or five persons. Information received in the consultation sessions has indicated a recent trend toward some very large families in the Windsor/Essex area, largely as a result of an upswing in immigration from South Asia. Many of these large families are experiencing difficulty finding housing units with sufficient numbers of bedrooms to meet their needs at an affordable cost. Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 9

17 Figure 5: Trends in Household Size in Essex County, % 28.8% 17.3% 27.5% 4.0% % 30.3% 17.5% 25.8% 3.3% Year % 30.8% 17.0% 24.8% 3.3% % 31.7% 16.5% 23.7% 3.3% % 31.9% 16.0% 22.9% 3.1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Portion of Households 1 Person 2 Persons 3 Persons 4-5 Persons 6+ Persons Source: Statistics Canada, Community Profiles, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001, and 2006 In Ontario, the share of family units was 72.5% in Windsor/Essex showed a similar trend at 71.2%; a slight decline from 2001 (72.4%). Overall, from 1991 to 2006 the County has seen a 2% decline in the number of family households. LaSalle showed the greatest proportion of family households at 83.8% while Pelee (35.0%) and the City of Windsor (34.8%) showed the greatest proportion of non-family households; just under two-thirds of the households in the City of Windsor were family households in Figure 6: Household Types in Essex County, (Proportion of Households) % 26.9% Year % 72.4% 28.3% 27.6% % 28.8% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Proportion of Households Family Non-Family Source: Statistics Canada, Community Profiles, 1991, 1996, 2001, and 2006 Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 10

18 Figure 7: Household Types in Essex County, (Absolute Numbers) ,420 32, ,690 36,980 Year ,295 39, ,355 43,490 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Proportion of Households Family Non-Family Source: Statistics Canada, Community Profiles, 1991, 1996, 2001, and Condition of Housing Stock The age and condition of the current housing stock is an important indicator in meeting the housing needs in Windsor/Essex. It is critical for the existing housing stock to continue to provide adequate living standards to residents. The HARS Report (2004) found that the housing stock of Windsor/Essex is somewhat older than the province as a whole; a function of early settlement in the area. The housing stock in the City of Windsor is the oldest of all communities within the County with over one-fifth (20.8%) built prior to 1946 and 54.7% built prior to The Municipalities of Lakeshore (20.4%) and LaSalle (23.9%) as well as the Township of Pelee (31.6%) have the greatest proportion of their housing stock built between 1996 and Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 11

19 Figure 8: Age of Housing Stock in Essex County and Ontario in 2006 Period of Construction Before % 4.5% 9.0% 5.8% 6.4% 6.1% 6.9% 8.9% 9.2% 8.8% 14.9% 18.3% 15.2% 19.7% 14.1% 12.9% 17.1% 15.2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Proportion of Housing Stock Ontario Essex County Source: Statistics Canada, Community Profiles, 2006 The following data summarizes the condition of the housing stock in Windsor/Essex as it was self-reported in the 2006 Census. Overall 5.9% of households felt that their home was in need of major repairs; slightly below the provincial average of 6.6% (2006) and slightly below the 2001 figure of 6.6%. Location Table 3: Condition of Dwellings by Municipality, 2006 Regular maintenance only Minor repairs required Major repairs required Total # % # % # % # Amherstburg 5, % 1, % % 7,930 Essex 5, % 1, % % 7,640 Kingsville 5, % 1, % % 7,450 Lakeshore 8, % 2, % % 11,630 LaSalle 7, % 1, % % 9,315 Leamington 7, % 2, % % 9,815 Pelee % % % 100 Tecumseh 6, % 1, % % 8,495 Windsor 63, % 19, % 5, % 88,465 Essex County 109, % 32, % 8, % 150,845 Ontario 3,092, % 1,162, % 300, % 4,555,025 Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 12

20 2.1.5 Economic Characteristics The economic profile and changing economic conditions, such as industry growth or downturns and unemployment, impact housing demand within a community in terms of both the number of units being demanded and the ability of households to afford housing in the community. The economic profile of Windsor/Essex is reviewed within this section. This section provides a review of labour force activity, based mainly on Statistics Canada Census, as well as providing an overview of more recent economic activity to assist in determining a more current economic profile of the area Labour Force Activity The review of labour force activity includes an analysis of labour force participation and unemployment rates, and labour force by industry. Labour force participation rates, defined as the percentage of working age persons either employed or actively seeking employment, have declined since Windsor/Essex dropped from 66.2% to 64.8% during this time period. The decline in Ontario, of 0.2%, was less than the decline experienced by Windsor/Essex (1.4%). Figure 9: Labour Force Participation Rate in Essex County and Ontario, 2001 and % Participation Rate 68% 67% 66% 65% 64% 67.3% 66.2% 67.1% 64.8% 63% 2001 Year 2006 Essex County Ontario Source: Statistics Canada, Community Profiles, 2001 and 2006 The Census reported that in 2006, the overall unemployment rate in Windsor/Essex stood at 7.9%; higher than the provincial rate of 6.4%. This varied from a low of 5.2% in LaSalle, to a high of 9.7% in the City of Windsor. All rates are up from 2001 and are comparable to 1996 rates. The recent economic crisis has brought an increase in unemployment in Changes in Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 13

21 the economy from 2006 to 2009, including more up to date unemployment rates are discussed in Section found below. Table 4: Unemployment Rates throughout Windsor-Essex County, Unemployment Rates Unemployment Rate Change Amherstburg Essex Kingsville Lakeshore LaSalle Leamington Pelee 10.3 N/A 0.0 N/A N/A Tecumseh City of Windsor Essex County Source: Statistics Canada, 1996, 2001 and 2006 Census Manufacturing has been the predominant economic activity in the Windsor area for many years. Indeed, the 2006 Census reported that 23.9% of the labour force was employed in manufacturing at that time, compared to 13.9% for the province as a whole. While the manufacturing industry remained the largest employment sector in Windsor/Essex with 23.9% of the labour force in 2006, it experienced the first decline in many years; a decline of 4.2% from Manufacturing in Windsor/Essex represented approximately 28% of the labour force in the 1991, 1996 and 2001 Census. This decline is a result of more current economic struggles experienced in the manufacturing sector and in particular the automobile sector. It is likely that this decline has continued from 2006 to See also below Economic Activity Industries that showed an increase in proportion of the labour force, from 2001 to 2006, include; educational services (1.0%), professional/scientific services (0.6%), transportation and warehousing (0.4%), finance and insurance (0.3%), and public administration (0.3%). The construction industry remained at approximately 5% of the labour force from 2001 to The only industries, in addition to manufacturing, to show a decline include; health care and social assistance (1.0%), utilities (0.2%), arts and entertainment (0.3%), mining/oil and gas (0.1%), and administrative support/waste management (0.1%). Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 14

22 Table 5: Labour Force by Industry in Essex County and Ontario, 2001 and Essex County Ontario Essex County Ontario # % # % # % # % Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 6, % 123, % 7, % 114, % Mining and oil and gas extraction % 21, % % 25, % Utilities 1, % 46, % % 50, % Construction 9, % 332, % 9, % 384, % Manufacturing 54, % 984, % 47, % 899, % Wholesale trade 5, % 278, % 5, % 307, % Retail trade 20, % 671, % 21, % 720, % Transportation and warehousing 7, % 280, % 8, % 307, % Information and cultural industries 2, % 171, % 2, % 172, % Finance and insurance 4, % 292, % 5, % 316, % Real estate and rental and leasing 2, % 108, % 2, % 126, % Professional, scientific and technical services 7, % 429, % 8, % 471, % Management of companies and enterprises % 7, % % 8, % Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services 6, % 257, % 6, % 314, % Educational services 10, % 371, % 13, % 433, % Health care and social assistance 16, % 531, % 19, % 611, % Arts, entertainment and recreation 7, % 121, % 7, % 140, % Accommodation and food services 14, % 380, % 15, % 414, % Other services (except public administration) 8, % 273, % 8, % 303, % Public administration 5, % 308, % 6, % 350, % All industries 192, % 5,992, % 199, % 6,473, % Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 and 2006 Census Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 15 Draft: Background Report Part One

23 2.1.7 Economic Activity The current economic condition is one that presents many challenges for the Windsor/Essex communities. Trends in employment and fluctuations in industrial development have created an uncertain economic climate. Experts anticipate that 2009 will continue to present challenges particularly in the auto industry. Many are hopeful that by 2010 markets, including the automobile market, will begin to grow again. Other sources fear that it will take a few years for the automobile sector to fully recover from the current conditions. The unemployment rate in the Windsor CMA stood at 12.6% as of February 2009; this is an increase from 10.9% in January. As of February 2009, there were approximately 22,000 unemployed persons in the Windsor CMA; an increase of approximately 3,000 persons from January. Key sources have indicated that many people have moved out of the area in search of employment elsewhere. This has led to higher housing vacancies in the area. Table 6: Labour Force Characteristics in the Windsor CMA, January and February 2009 Characteristic January 2009 February 2009 In thousands (except rates) Change from last month Change from last December Change from twelve months ago # % # % # % Population N/A Labour Force Employment (#) Unemployment (#) Participation rate N/A N/A Unemployment rate N/A N/A Employment rate N/A N/A Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Information, February 15 to 21, 2009, March The following Table shows the unemployment rate for the Windsor as published by HRSDC. This data shows a slightly lower unemployment rate of 12.1%compared to the Statistics Canada rate of 12.6% for the CMA. The data does show clearly the upward trend in unemployment over the past year, increasing by about 4% from January 2008 to March Comparatively, Windsor has the highest unemployment rate when compared to other Ontario communities. Thunder Bay showed the second highest unemployment rate of 10.4%. Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 16 Draft: Background Report Part One

24 Figure 10: Monthly Unemployment Rate in Windsor CMA, Jan 13 - Feb 9 Feb 10 - Mar 8 Mar 9 - Apr 5 Apr 6 - May 10 May 11 - June 7 June 8 - July 12 July 13 - Aug 9 Aug 9 - Sept 6 Sept 7 - Oct 11 Oct 12 - Nov 8 Nov 9 - Dec 6 Dec 7 - Jan 10 Jan 11 - Feb 7 Feb 8 - Mar 14 Unemployment Rate Mar 15 - Apr Date Source: HRSDC, Unemployment Rates for the Unemployment Insurance (EI) Economic Regions, 2008, 2009 Unemployment Rate Figure 11: Unemployment Rate Across Ontario on March 13, Economic Region Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Information, February 15 to 21, 2009, March Based on Statistics Canada s Labour Force Survey and as reported in Service Canada s Labour Market Monitor (December 2008), an estimated 19,800 manufacturing jobs across the Tri-County 1 area were lost in The manufacturing sector comprised almost 28% of the area s employment (this includes Kent County) and was reduced to 19% by the end of It is further 1 Tri-County refers to Chatham-Kent and the Counties of Essex and Lambton. Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 17 Draft: Background Report Part One

25 anticipated that workers in the automotive sector will continue to experience job loss for the coming year as a result of reduced demand. The Canadian government has approved loans to GM and Chrysler to help bridge their finances while restructuring takes place. Sources indicate that while abandoning the manufacturing industry is not an option, there is a need to shift some of the focus to high performance areas such as aerospace as well as areas such as construction and forestry. Local newspapers are publishing many articles of layoffs in the area, the auto sector in particular is experiencing substantial layoffs. Chrysler, for example, announced (early March 2009) that it is eliminating a third shift at its minivan plan in Windsor and placing an additional 1,200 workers on indefinite layoff. Such news is all too common in Windsor as the unemployment climbs to its highest levels. Overall, it is a challenging time for Windsor/Essex. Sources stress that this is not a typical economic downturn but rather a major economic restructuring of the economy. While some are optimistic, most sources indicate that improvement to the overall economy will take several years. Sources in the Windsor area are hopeful that they can redefine themselves as a world-class manufacturing hub that supports multiple industries, and will be in position to be a premier multi-modal transportation hub Changes in Household Tenure As shown in the HARS Report (2004), the homeownership rate in Windsor/Essex had increased from 68.5% in 1986 to 72.9% in This has further increased to 75.5% as of Like most areas across the province and the country, lower interest rates and reduced downpayment requirements have made the homeownership market an opportunity for many more households. Although following the same increasing trend, the homeownership rate in Windsor/Essex was higher at 75.5% than the overall rate for the province (71.1%). The City of Windsor continues to have the lowest ownership rate at 67.3%; this is consistent with more urban centres which generally have a greater variety of housing options to choose from. Pelee had the highest homeownership rate in 2006, at 94.7%, followed by the Municipality of Lakeshore at 94.3%, and by Lasalle and Tecumseh at 91.9% respectively. Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 18 Draft: Background Report Part One

26 Figure 12: Household Tenure in Essex County, 2001 Amherstburg 82.6% 17.4% Essex 83.0% 17.0% Kingsville 82.6% 17.4% Location Lakeshore LaSalle 94.1% 88.1% 5.9% 11.8% Leamington 71.1% 28.9% Tecumseh 90.7% 9.3% Windsor 65.0% 35.0% Essex County 72.9% 27.1% Ontario 67.8% 32.2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Proportion of Households Owned Rented Source: Statistics Canada, Community Profile, 2001 Figure 13: Trends in Household Tenure in Essex County, 2006 Amherstburg Essex Kingsville Lakeshore 85.8% 85.5% 87.4% 94.3% 14.2% 14.5% 12.6% 5.7% Location LaSalle Leamington 91.9% 73.3% 8.1% 26.7% Pelee 94.7% 10.5% Tecumseh 91.9% 8.1% Windsor 67.2% 32.8% Essex County Ontario 75.5% 71.0% 24.5% 28.8% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Proportion of Households Owned Rented Source: Statistics Canada, Community Profile, 2006 Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 19 Draft: Background Report Part One

27 Figure 14: Household Tenure in Essex County and Ontario, Year and Location Essex County Ontario Essex County Ontario Essex County Ontario 29.9% 35.6% 27.1% 32.2% 24.5% 28.8% 70.1% 64.3% 72.9% 67.8% 75.5% 71.0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Proportion of Households Rented Owned Source: Statistics Canada, Community Profiles, 1996, 2001, and % Figure 15: Trends in Tenure in Essex County, Proportion of Households 80% 60% 68.5% 69.8% 70.1% 72.9% 75.5% 40% 20% 31.5% 30.2% 29.9% 27.1% 24.5% 0% Year Owned Rented Source: Statistics Canada, Community Profiles, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001, and Changes in Household Income Essex County had an average household income of $72,900 in ; this is above the national average of $69,548 but below the provincial average of $78,365. From 2000 to 2005 Windsor/Essex had a 10.9% increase in average household income; below both the national and provincial growth rates. 2 Figures for income are based on the year prior to the Census period. Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 20 Draft: Background Report Part One

28 Median income in Windsor/Essex at $59,876 is consistent with the provincial level ($60,772) and higher than the national level ($53,634). Median income is often considered the most accurate income figure for comparison purposes, as it eliminates the influence of very high incomes. The Municipality of Tecumseh had the highest median income within the County in 2006 at $91,185. This is followed closely by Lasalle at $89,297. Leamington had the second lowest median income at $54,969 while the City of Windsor had the lowest at $51,070. Given the current economic climate, it is likely that this has brought a reduction in these income levels and is impacting the housing market accordingly. Figure 16: Average and Median Incomes in Essex County by Municipality, 2005 Amherstburg $86,544 $ 73,555 Essex $73,389 $ 62,748 Kingsville $78,542 $ 66,556 Lakeshore $93,428 $ 82,059 Location LaSalle Leamington $99,461 $67,229 $ 89,297 $ 54,969 Tecumseh $102,243 $ 90,185 City of Windsor $63,527 $ 51,070 Essex County $72,900 $ 59,876 Ontario $78,365 $ 60,772 $ 150,000 $ 100,000 $ 50,000 $ 0 $ 50,000 $ 100,000 Income Median Income Average Income Source: Statistics Canada, Community Profiles, 2006 Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 21 Draft: Background Report Part One

29 Figure 17: Average and Median Income in Essex County, % 21.3% 20% Income 15% 10% 14.9% 13.7% 14.7% 10.9% 10.0% 5% 0% Five-Year Time Period Average Median Source: Statistics Canada, Census 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2006 In 2005, there were 50,682 individuals living in low-income households, based on the Statistics Canada Low Income Cut-off 3 ; this represented 13.1% of the Windsor/Essex population. This group, as a proportion of the population, has fluctuated over recent years. Low-income households represented 13.6% of the population in 1990, increasing to 14.5% in 1995, followed by a decline in 2000 to 12.3% before rebounding upwards in This pattern is repeated among low-income families and low-income singles. In 2005, these households comprised 10.3% of all families and 31.9% of all single person households. The percentage of low-income population was highest in the City of Windsor at 18.2%, followed by Leamington at 12.0%. Over three quarters (76.7%) of individuals living in low-income households reside in the City of Windsor. Similarly, 74.9% of low-income families and 81.5% of low-income singles reside in the City of Windsor. 3 Statistics Canada defines low income cut-off as, income levels at which families or unattached individuals spend 20% more than average on food, shelter and clothing. Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 22 Draft: Background Report Part One

30 Proportion of Families 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Figure 18: Low-Income Population in Essex County, % 35.6% 13.6% 14.5% 11.5% 11.9% 31.9% 31.9% 12.3% 13.1% 9.7% 10.3% Year Family households Single Households Total Low-Income Population Source: Statistics Canada, Census Data 1991, 1996, 2001, and 2006 Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 23 Draft: Background Report Part One

31 Table 7: Incidence of Low Income, 2006 Municipality Total Families Low Income Families Total Single Individuals Low Single Individuals Total Population in Households Total Low Income Population # # % # # % # # % Amherstburg 6, % 1, % 21,550 1, % Essex 5, % 2, % 19,695 1, % Kingsville 5, % 1, % 19,885 1, % Lakeshore 9, % 2, % 33,090 1, % LaSalle 7, % 1, % 27,535 1, % Leamington 7, % 2, % 27,055 3, % Pelee % % % Tecumseh 7, % 1, % 24,195 1, % Windsor 58,745 8, % 33,775 12, % 213,665 38, % Essex County 108,835 11, % 47,155 15, % 386,885 50, % Source: Statistics Canada, Community Profile, 2006 Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 24 Draft: Background Report Part One

32 Changes in OW, ODSP Another indicator of the income characteristics of Windsor/Essex residents is the income support provided by government social assistance programs, including Ontario Works (OW) and the Ontario Disabilities Support Program (ODSP). Based on the average monthly caseloads, there were 8,190 participants of the Ontario Works program in the Windsor/Essex area as of This is an increase of 1,508 participants (22.6%) from The number of ODSP participants (based on annual caseloads) stood at 8,487; an increase of 1,606 participants or 23.3%. The increase of persons on social assistance is a function of the economic downturn and will likely lead to housing affordability challenges for an increasing number of households. Table 8: Average Ontario Works Caseload in Windsor-Essex County, Quarter Average Caseload Per Quarter (#) Change (%) 1st Qtr 6,762 7,014 7,740 8,282 8, % 22.2% 2nd Qtr 6,729 7,264 7,986 8,369 8, % 15.4% 3rd Qtr 6,619 7,276 8,002 8,046 8, % 23.3% 4th Qtr 6,616 7,296 7,928 7,852 8, % 21.4% Source: Residential Support Services Office, City of Windsor Figure 19: Average Ontario Works Caseload in Windsor-Essex County, Average Number of Cases 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 6,762 6,729 6,619 6,616 7,014 7,264 7,276 7,296 7,740 7,986 8,002 7,928 8,282 8,369 8,046 7,852 8,264 8,303 8,158 8, Year 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr Source: Residential Support Services Office, City of Windsor Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 25

33 Figure 20: Average Monthly Caseload for Ontario Works in Windsor-Essex County, ,000 Average Monthly Caseload 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 6,682 7,212 7,914 8,137 8, Year Source: Residential Support Services Office, City of Windsor Figure 21: Average Monthly Caseload for Ontario Disability Support Program (ODSP) in Windsor-Essex County, Number of ODSP recipients 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 8,487 8,030 7,599 7,197 6, Year Source: Ontario Disability Support Program, Southwest Office Shelter allowances for Ontario Works and ODSP were set in 1995 and remained unchanged until 2004 when it was announced that rates would increase by 3%. These changes became effective in February and March of An additional increase of 2% was effective as of November/December 2006 and a further increase of 2% was effective as of November/December As of this time, the shelter allowance for a single person on OW is $356/month and $445/month for a single person on ODSP. From 1995 to 2004, minimum wage remained at $6.85/hour. Since then it has steadily increased to $8.75/hour and will increase further to $9.50/hour in March and up to $10.25/hour in March This increase will take effect March 31 st Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 26

34 Despite these recent adjustments for inflation, persons earning their income from these sources lost ground in terms of housing affordability during this period. Table 9: Maximum Monthly Shelter Allowance for Ontario Works and Ontario Disability Support Program (ODSP) Recipients Benefit Unit Size Ontario Works Ontario Disability Support Program (ODSP) 1 $356 $445 2 $560 $700 3 $607 $759 4 $660 $825 5 $711 $889 6 or more $738 $922 Source: Ministry of Community and Social Services, Shelter, Dir 6.2-2, December 2008; Shelter Calculation, 6.2, ODSP Branch, July 2008; 2.2 Changes in Housing Supply Demographic changes continue to give rise to a growing diversity of household types and housing needs in the area. Accordingly, it is important that the housing being provided in the Windsor/Essex area reflects these changes. An important aspect of assessing housing availability is to compare recent housing activity to housing demand characteristics and trends to assess the extent to which supply matches demand and identify any gaps in the housing market. This section includes a review of recent housing supply activity New Housing Supply Housing starts in the Windsor CMA have declined over the past five years; with a steeper decline occurring over the 2005 to 2008 period. From 2003 to 2008, housing starts declined by almost 75%. Over the past year (from 2007 to 2008), housing starts have declined by 12%. These declines are clear reflections of the impact of the recent economic situation. By type, single home starts stood at 417 in 2008; down from 1,632 in Apartment (rental) starts showed just 16 starts in 2008 representing 3.0% of all housing starts. Overall, the proportion of housing types being built has remained relatively constant over the five year period. Single starts, for example, represent approximately three-quarters of all housing starts. Conversely, apartment rental starts range from less than one percent of the starts (2006) to approximately 3% (2003, 2007, 2008), to their peak of 5.6% and 10.7% in 2004 and 2005 respectfully. Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 27

35 Row housing or townhome starts comprised approximately 16% of the housing starts in the Windsor CMA in This proportion has fluctuated slightly over the five year period from the low end in 2003 of 14.8% to the high in 2006 of 28.2% of the housing starts. Despite 58% of the households in Windsor/Essex in 2006 being comprised of one or two-person households, the housing starts continue to show that predominately single-detached homes (approximately three-quarters in 2008) are being built in the area. Changing patterns in household type and household size, as well as changes in the age of the population, give rise to the need for an increasingly diverse range of dwelling types. For the Leamington CA, which includes the municipalities of Leamington and Kingsville, housing starts have not seen the more drastic decline experienced in the CMA. From 2005 to 2008 starts remained relatively constant at 96 in 2005 increasing to 110 in Interestingly, the number of row house or townhouse starts were at 30 in 2008, up from 2006/2007 levels. Leamington and Kingsville are growing municipalities within the County, increasing their share of the County population to 12.6% in A news release issued by CMHC in January (2009), quoted Margot Stevenson Market Analyst for CMHC stating Residential construction in Windsor fell to the lowest level since She is further quoted stating A combination of adequate choice in the resale market, job uncertainty and fragile consumer confidence resulted in less demand for new homes in the Windsor area. Table 10: Housing Starts in Windsor CMA, Housing Starts (#) Dwelling Type Single-detached 1,632 1,539 1, Semi-detached Row/Apt ownership Apt rental/life-lease Total 2,237 2,287 1,496 1, Proportion of Total Housing Starts (%) Single-detached 73.0% 67.3% 74.2% 66.2% 67.8% 76.9% Semi-detached 9.5% 8.5% 6.4% 4.8% 7.8% 4.1% Row/Apt ownership 14.8% 18.7% 25.4% 28.2% 21.2% 16.1% Apt rental/life-lease 2.7% 5.6% 10.7% 0.8% 3.3% 3.0% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: CMHC, Housing Now Report, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008 Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 28

36 Table 11: Housing Starts in Leamington CA, Housing Starts (#) Dwelling Type Single-detached Semi-detached Row/Apt ownership Apt rental/life-lease Total Proportion of Total Housing Starts (%) Single-detached 41.7% 68.8% 84.9% 65.5% Semi-detached 6.3% 18.8% 7.2% 5.5% Row/Apt ownership 47.9% 12.5% 7.9% 27.3% Apt rental/life-lease 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: CMHC, Housing Now Report, 2006, 2007, and 2008 Housing completions show similar trends to those identified above. Housing completions in the Windsor CMA declined by almost 75% between 2003 and In 2008, housing completions were at 551 units. The Leamington CA, however, showed consistency in the number of completions, only declining from 141 in 2005 to 138 in Year Figure 22: Housing Completions in Windsor CMA ( ) and Leamington CA ( ) ,180 1,635 1, ,000 1,500 2,000 Apt rental/life-lease Semi-detached Housing Completions Row/Apt ownership Single-detached Source: CMHC, Housing Now Report - Windsor CMA, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008 Year Apt rental/life-lease Semi-detached Housing Completions Row/Apt ownership Single-detached Source: CMHC, Housing Now Report - Ontario, 2006, 2007, and 2008 Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 29

37 Table 12: Housing Completions in Windsor CMA, Dwelling Type Single-detached 70.6% 73.4% 62.8% 84.2% 82.5% 62.4% Semi-detached 13.9% 8.2% 7.3% 3.8% 7.8% 5.8% Row/Apt ownership 15.5% 16.0% 22.2% 10.3% 8.2% 6.5% Apt rental/life-lease 0.0% 2.3% 7.6% 1.7% 1.6% 25.2% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: CMHC, Housing Now Report, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008 Table 13: Housing Completions in Leamington CA, Dwelling Type Single-detached 83.0% 45.6% 92.9% 68.8% Semi-detached 17.0% 6.5% 7.1% 5.8% Row/Apt ownership 0.0% 45.6% 31.3% 0.0% Apt rental/life-lease 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: CMHC, Housing Now Report, 2006, 2007, and 2008 Based on the analysis provided in the 2004 HARS report it was recommended that an annual housing target of 2,168 units be set for Windsor/Essex in order to accommodate future demands for housing. Windsor/Essex exceeded these targets during the 2003 to 2004 period and was close to meeting them in Following this, however, starts declined well below the target during more recent years (2006 to 2008). Given the economic situation, it is clear the market was adjusting to lower levels of demand. Windsor/Essex and City of Windsor Population and Housing Projections (Lapointe Consulting Inc.) show that from 2006 to 2011 the economic climate will result in a continued decline of net migration to the area and a concurrent slowdown in new housing constructions. It is further noted that after this time period it is expected that the local economy will be in recovering and housing demand would be expected to pick up and remain relatively stable with a annual production at approximately 2,000 new units. These projections further anticipate that 82% of new housing will be in the form of ownership housing and 18% will be in the form of rental housing; this is above the 2006 homeownership rate of 75.5%. Under the homeownership component of the Canada-Ontario Affordable Housing Program (AHP), the City of Windsor and County of Essex received an allocation of $981,000 for the development of affordable homeownership units. As of January 2009, Windsor/Essex added 104 units of affordable housing with an additional 15 units committed to purchase. Habitat for Humanity had seven Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 30

38 of the committed units. There is currently approximately $100,000 in uncommitted funds with nine applications in process Changes in Ownership Market Homeownership is often viewed as the most important way to build personal assets, thereby helping to reduce poverty. It offers stability in day-to-day living. Home ownership is also viewed as the ideal form of personal investment. In essence, a mortgage is a form of forced savings. The higher the proportion of owner households in a community, generally the better that population is housed in terms of quality of living environment, security of tenure, and affordability. Of course, for those of lower income, frail health or special needs that are unable to afford or otherwise cope with home ownership, the lack of other options can cause significant hardship. The five-year mortgage rate has shown a steady decline since At that point it stood at 13.35%. Since then, it has seen a number of fluctuations (rising in 1994 and 2000). In 2004, the five-year mortgage rate stood at 6.23% rising slightly to a current (2008) rate of 7.10%. The rate of homeownership has shown a steady increase from 1986 and in 2006 reached a rate of 75.5% in Windsor/Essex; up from 73.0% in The average price of a two-storey home in the City of Windsor reached $236,634 in 2008; an 11.3% increase from the 2004 average price. The overall average house price in 2008 was $160,139; a decline from $162,300 seen in Figure 23: Rate of Homeownership in Essex County and City of Windsor, Rate of Homeownership Windsor-Essex County Year Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census City of Windsor Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 31

39 Table 14: Historical Comparison of Housing Prices in the City of Windsor, House Type Ranch $170,240 $173,702 $164,658 $169,311 $175,295 Raised Ranch $198,672 $207,937 $209,876 $200,797 $194,987 2-Storey Home $212,621 $215,418 $227,343 $204,404 $236,634 1 and 1/2 Storey Home $127,291 $124,205 $117,125 $96,456 $115,244 Bungalow $102,678 $102,338 $110,600 $103,466 $78,533 Source: Windsor-Essex County Real Estate Board, Statistics, December 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008 Figure 24: Average House Price in Windsor-Essex, $170,000 Average Price $165,000 $160,000 $155,000 $150,000 $165,920 $164,720 $162,300 $160,139 $154, Year Source: Windsor-Essex Real Estate Board As reported in the Windsor/Essex County Real Estate Board December 2008 statistics report, existing home sales in Windsor/Essex will be moderate in It is expected that sales will soften a further 6% and the average price of resale home will decline to $157,500 in 2009 due to aggressive negotiating by a limited number of buyers. The report further states that LaSalle and South Windsor will continue to be attractive locations for purchases. The CMHC Housing Now Report for 2008 reported slightly lower prices at $159,700 as the average resale price for homes in the area. This is an overall increase from 2003; although a decline from 2007 of 2.1%. Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 32

40 Table 15: Resale Housing Activity in the Windsor CMA, Year Annual Sales Annual New Listings Annual Average Price # % Change # % Change # % Change , % 9, % $151, % , % 11, % $159, % , % 11, % $163, % , % 11, % $164, % , % 11, % $163, % , % 11, % $159, % Source: CMHC, Housing Now Reports, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009 Figure 25: Average Resale Price in Windsor CMA, $170,000 Average Resale Price $165,000 $163,001 $164,123 $164,351 $159,618 $159,700 $160,000 $155,000 $151,948 $150, Year Source: CMHC, Housing Now Reports, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, and Changes in Rental Market Rental housing fulfils a number of roles in the housing market. It offers a flexible form of accommodation, provides relief from day-to-day maintenance of homeownership, and often provides more modest unit sizes. Beyond lifestyle advantages, the main role of rental housing in any community is its affordability relative to most forms of homeownership. Rental dwellings in most cases tend to require lower monthly payments than the principal, interest, taxes, utilities and maintenance costs associated with home ownership. There is also no need to pay down payments (other than first and last month s rent), legal and closing fees, land transfer tax and other costs associated with the purchase of a home. It is critical that all communities provide a sufficient range of rental housing to meet the needs of the local population and that this supply expand as the population grows. It is also important that this supply consist primarily of permanent, purpose-built rental housing in order to ensure the stability and Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 33

41 security of tenants and that a considerable portion of this rental housing be affordable to households of low and moderate income. Overall the number of rented dwellings in Windsor/Essex decreased by approximately 1,100 units from 2001 to 2006; a decline of 3%. Owned units, conversely, increased by 11,030 units or by 11%. A decline in rental occupancy is generally an indicator that some investors who have held units such as row houses on a rental basis may have sold them to owner-occupants, thereby resulting in a decline in the rental stock. Other factors that can cause a decline in rental stock include demolition and condominium conversion. This decline illustrates the importance of ensuring a permanent stock of purposebuilt rental housing. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) undertakes an annual survey of rental housing in urban centres across Canada. The following provides an analysis of rental vacancy rates and rental rates derived from CMHC s Rental Market Survey Reports. In 2008, vacancy rates for apartments in the Windsor CMA were far higher than the 2003 levels reported in the HARS Report (2004) and virtually the highest of any urban centre in Ontario. The overall vacancy rate stood at 14.6% in 2008; an increase from 12.8% in 2007 and an increase from 4.3% in The vacancy rate for one-bedroom suites was slightly higher at 15.7% (2008). These high vacancy rates are clear evidence of the current economic decline and likely reflect an outmigration of population to other areas. For the Leamington CA, which includes the Municipalities of Leamington and Kingsville, the overall vacancy rate for rental apartments was 5.5% in 2008; 9.1% lower than that of the Windsor CMA. Although this represents an increase from 2005 levels (3.3%) the increase is not as sharp as that experienced in the City of Windsor and the CMA overall. Vacancy rates in 2008 for rental row houses (or townhomes) stood at 11.7% in 2008 for the Windsor CMA, and 37.8% overall for the Leamington CA. It should be noted that where CMHC has listed data N/A it is a result of a low universe and therefore is unreported. The supply of rental townhomes in the Leamington CA, for example, is quite low and therefore much of the data is unreported. While these rates would indicate that there is likely an adequate supply of rental housing to meet demand, it is unclear (based on this data alone) as to whether this supply is suitable, affordable, or in adequate condition. Also, of note, the increase shown in vacancy rates does create opportunities to work with private landlords on innovative approaches to providing affordable rental housing to those in need. Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 34

42 See Changes in Housing Needs below for further affordability analysis of the private rental market housing supply. Table 16: Private Rental Market Vacancies and Rates in Windsor CMA, Apartments Townhouses Units Bachelor Vacant Units N/A N/A N/A Universe 1, ,109 1, N/A N/A N/A Percent Vacant N/A N/A N/A 1 Bedroom Vacant Units , N/A N/A N/A Universe 7, ,819 7, N/A Percent Vacant N/A N/A 2 Bedrooms Vacant Units N/A Universe 5, ,806 5, N/A Percent Vacant Bedrooms Vacant Units N/A Universe N/A Percent Vacant 6.0 N/A Total Vacant Units 1, ,568 1, Universe 14, ,111 14, Percent Vacant Source: Canada Mortgage Housing Corporation, Rental Market Reports - Windsor CMA Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 35

43 Table 17: Private Rental Market Vacancies and Rates in Leamington CA, Apartments Townhomes Units Bachelor Vacant Units 55 N/A N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A Universe 1,256 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Percent Vacant 4.3 N/A N/A N/A 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 1 Bedroom Vacant Units N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Universe N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Percent Vacant N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2 Bedrooms Vacant Units Universe Percent Vacant Bedrooms Vacant Units 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Universe 716 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Percent Vacant N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Total Vacant Units N/A Universe N/A 1,244 1,235 1,227 1, Percent Vacant N/A Source: Canada Mortgage Housing Corporation, Rental Market Reports - Windsor CMA Figure 26: Vacancy Rates in Windsor CMA and Leamington CA, Vacancy Rate Windsor CMA Year Leamington CA Source: Canada Mortgage Housing Corporation, Rental Market Reports for Windsor CMA and Ontario Provicinai Highlights, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2008 Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 36

44 The average market rent in the Windsor CMA, based on CMHC survey results, stood at $645 for a one-bedroom, $772 for a two-bedroom, and $883 for a three-bedroom in Overall these rates have remained fairly constant over the six year period; fluctuating by $4 to $9/month with the exception of the three-bedroom unit. Three-bedroom units have shown an overall decline in rent by approximately $80/month although fairly stable from 2006 to 2008 at approximately $880. This decline in the demand for three bedroom units likely reflects the decrease in larger households in the area. The Windsor CMA had the highest apartment vacancy rate in Ontario in 2007 and in The 2008 rate of 14.6% was the highest rate ever recorded in Windsor or any other city reported in Where s Home Where s Home (2008) further reports that CMHC predicts that the vacancy rate will reach 17% in The report further speculates, however, that the construction of the new 1.5 billion dollar border crossings in late 2009 should improve the unemployment and vacancy rates by the end of It is interesting to note that, despite the large increase in vacancy rates in recent years, average rent levels have not dropped at a corresponding rate. Landlords do not appear to have adjusted their rent levels to meet the market reality. This is having an impact on affordability, which is discussed in the next section. Average market rents for the Leamington CA are slightly lower compared with the CMA. The average market rent for a one-bedroom in 2008 stood at $603; slightly below the CMA average of $645. Similarly, the average rent for a twobedroom in Leamington was $726; $46/month below the CMA average rent. Figure 27: Average Market Rents by Unit Size in Windsor CMA and Leamington CA, Rent $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $963 $903 $959 $881 $878 $883 $776 $776 $780 $774 $773 $772 $650 $650 $650 $650 $641 $645 $494 $488 $498 $494 $495 $ Year Bachelor 1 Bedroom 2 Bedrooms 3 Bedrooms Source: CMHC, Rental Market Reports - Windsor CMA, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 Rent $1,200 $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $1,084 $1,107 $886 $898 $767 $774 $651 $646 $914 $710 $710 $721 $726 $596 $596 $426 $533 $888 $899 $616 $603 $ Year Bachelor 1 Bedroom 2 Bedrooms 3 Bedrooms Source: CMHC, Rental Market Reports - Windsor CMA, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 While higher vacancies would indicate that there are increased opportunities for persons to access more permanent housing, often the private rental market is still out of reach for persons in low income. 5 Where s Home is a joint research publication by the Ontario Non-Profit Housing Association (ONPHA) and the Co-operative Housing Federation of Canada Ontario Region. Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 37

45 In 2005, approximately 45% of households in Windsor/Essex were spending more than 30% of their income on rent; an increase from 42.4% in This is comparable to the province, which had 42.2% of renters paying more than 30% of their income in 2001 and 43.6% in The City of Windsor had a higher proportion of renters spending more than 30% of their income on rent at 46.5% in 2006; an increase from 44.1% in One-fifth of all renter households, in Windsor/Essex, were spending more than 50% of their income on rent in This has remained relatively unchanged from It is likely, however, given the current economic situation, that these figures have increased since the 2006 Census. Figure 28: Portion of Income Spent by Renter Households on Shelter in Windsor-Essex County, ,860 14,165 8,765 8,975 Year ,695 14,100 7,975 8, ,795 13,445 8,820 7,695 Renter Households Less than 15% 15% to 30% 30.1% to 50% More than 50% Source: Statistics Canada, custom tab Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 38

46 Table 18: Gross Rent as a Percentage of 2005 Household Income for Tenant Households Type of Household Less than 15% City of Windsor 15% - 30% 30%-50% 50% and over One family household 20.1% 39.8% 21.3% 18.8% All couples 26.3% 42.5% 17.8% 13.3% Couples with children 23.6% 44.4% 18.4% 13.4% One-family households: Lone parents 9.6% 35.2% 27.2% 28.1% Multiple-family households 30.5% 40.7% 16.9% 11.9% Non family households 13.7% 33.5% 26.5% 26.3% Non-family households: One person only 12.8% 33.3% 27.4% 26.6% Non-family households: Two or more persons 20.2% 35.0% 20.7% 23.9% Total Renter Households 16.9% 36.6% 24.0% 22.5% Essex County One family household 21.8% 40.1% 21.2% 16.9% All couples 27.9% 42.6% 17.9% 11.7% Couples with children 26.2% 44.5% 18.4% 10.9% One-family households: Lone parents 10.2% 35.4% 27.5% 26.8% Multiple-family households 38.2% 36.8% 16.2% 10.3% Non family households 15.1% 33.0% 26.9% 25.1% Non-family households: One person only 14.2% 32.8% 27.7% 25.4% Non-family households: Two or more persons 21.5% 34.3% 20.8% 23.2% Total Renter Households 18.5% 36.6% 24.0% 20.9% Ontario One family household 19.1% 44.3% 21.2% 15.3% All couples 22.8% 46.3% 18.9% 11.9% Couples with children 20.8% 47.0% 19.5% 12.7% One-family households: Lone parents 10.6% 39.6% 26.6% 23.2% Multiple-family households 27.9% 46.1% 16.1% 9.8% Non family households 12.1% 35.9% 26.9% 25.1% Non-family households: One person only 11.0% 35.1% 28.1% 25.8% Non-family households: Two or more persons 18.9% 41.0% 19.5% 20.5% Total Renter Households 16.1% 40.3% 23.8% 19.8% Source: Statistics Canada, Custom tabulations, 2006 Discussions with sources at the Labour Sponsored Community Development Group indicate that the two key challenges facing private landlords are the high vacancy rates and maintenance costs. Vacancy rates have been increasing resulting in a decline in revenue for landlords. Keeping up with repairs and Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 39

47 regular maintenance is becoming increasingly challenging. The current Housing Allowance Program, which provides a flat-rate subsidy to households eligible to be on the social housing waiting list, has been successful in the Windsor area. Sources indicate that this program is helpful in providing more affordable housing to residents in need as well as assisting private landlords in the community. Since the 2004 HARS report, there has been the addition (either built or under construction) of 130 new units of affordable housing built under the Canada- Ontario Affordable Housing Program. Of these units, 59 are located within the City of Windsor, 25 in Kingsville, 21 in Amherstburg, 11 in Leamington, 10 in Tecumseh, three elsewhere in the County, and one in Lakeshore Changes in Social Housing In addition to the supply of private market rental housing, there is also a supply of social housing in Windsor/Essex accommodating a range of household types. These units provide affordable rental housing for people whose income prevents them from obtaining affordable housing in the private market. Most of these units are provided on a rent-geared-to-income basis. The maximum rent would be is 30% of household income or the market rent for a unit, whichever is lower. The social housing portfolio is comprised of public housing (managed by the Windsor-Essex Community Housing Corporation (CHC)), and non-profit housing providers. There are currently (January 2009) 7,911 units within the entire portfolio; 3,538 public housing units, and 4,373 non-profit units (1,915 federal non-profits, 2,438 provincial non-profits and 20 municipal non-profit). The number of public housing units has remained unchanged since the 2004 HARS report. Figure 29: Social Housing Stock in Windsor-Essex County, by Type of Provider Rent Supplement 829 9% Total Fed 1,915 22% Public 3,539 41% Total Prov 2,438 28% Total Fed Total Prov Public Rent Supplement Source: City of Windsor, Social Housing Department Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 40

48 In addition to this stock there are 829 rent supplement units within Windsor/Essex. These units provide rent-geared-to-income accommodation in buildings owned and operated by private sector landlords (45%) and non-profit housing providers (55%). Rent supplement units are first offered to the private sector and failing full take-up of the units, they are allocated to non-profit providers. Many of the rent supplement units added since the 2004 HARS Report (approximately 122 units) were part of the Housing Allowance Rent Supplement Program. As a result of the high vacancy rate 59 units through the Housing Allowance program were added through the acquisition of existing rental buildings. Agreements under this program will expire in Figure 30: Social and Non-Profit Housing Stock in Windsor-Essex County, by Program Name Provincially Reformed Non-Profit Housing 2,438 Municipal Non-Profit (Municipal/Federal) 20 Program Name Non-Profit 2% write down Non-Profit 'Low-Rental' Housing Allowance Strong Communities ,059 Former OCHAP / CSHP programs 293 Private or Commercial 160 Public housing 3, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Number of Units Provincial Federal Rent Supplement Municipal Source: City of Windsor, Social Housing Department The public housing buildings are located throughout the City and County. These units are located in 39 locations throughout Windsor/Essex. The City of Windsor has 86.7% of the total social housing stock, with 6,861 units. Amherstburg has the second highest proportion of the stock with 260 units or 3.3% of the stock. Of the 7,911 social housing units, 45% are comprised of one-bedroom units, 20% are two-bedroom, 27% are three-bedroom, 5% are bachelor, and 3% are four-bedroom or more. Approximately 90% of the larger units (three-bedroom or more) are located within the City of Windsor. Almost all bachelor units, with the exception of seven located in Leamington, are located within the City of Windsor. Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 41

49 Figure 31: Social and Non-Profit Stock in Windsor-Essex County, by Location Amherstburg 260 3% Kingsville Essex % 2% Lakeshore 77 1% LaSalle 71 1% Leamington 281 4% Tecumseh 88 1% Windsor 6,861 87% Amherstburg Essex Kingsville Lakeshore LaSalle Leamington Tecumseh Windsor Source: City of Windsor, Social Housing Department Figure 32: Social and Non-Profit Stock in Windsor-Essex County, by Unit Size 3 bedrooms 2,145 27% 4+ bedrooms 237 3% Bachelor 382 5% 2 bedrooms 1,567 20% 1 bedroom 3,580 45% Bachelor 1 bedroom 2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4+ bedrooms Source: City of Windsor, Social Housing Department Looking solely at the non-profit housing stock, 39%, or 1,687 units, are dedicated to seniors, 35% or 1,517 units are integrated (meaning they are for seniors, singles or families), 20%, or 899 units, are dedicated to families, 4%, or 186 units, are dedicated to singles, and 2%, or 84 units, are Urban Native Homes (federal). While there are integrated units located throughout the County, all dedicated family units are located within the City of Windsor. This is also the case for dedicated single units. Some 93.3% of dedicated seniors buildings are located within the City of Windsor. Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 42

50 Figure 33: Social and Non-Profit Housing Stock in Windsor-Essex County, by Building Mandate Single % Native 84 1% Family % Senior % Integrated % Family Integrated Senior Single Native Source: City of Windsor, Social Housing Department By mandate, some 37% of the total social housing stock is dedicated to seniors, 11% is dedicated to singles, 29% is dedicated to families, 1% is dedicated to Native families and 22% is integrated (families and adults). Within the social housing stock, there are 142 modified units; 118 within the non-profit stock and 24 within the public stock. Most of these units (84% or 119 units) are located within the City of Windsor. Overall, about 2% of the social housing stock is modified to accommodate persons with physical disabilities. The 2004 HARS report recommended expanding this supply to 5%. The Ontario Non-Profit Housing Association (ONPHA) defines a modified unit as a housing unit with accessibility modifications which allow tenants with a physical disability to perform daily household activities as independently as possible. There are two categories used in Windsor/Essex to define a modified unit. Category A defines units that have all of the following features: Halls/doors wide enough for wheelchair Lowered light switches Lowered kitchen cupboards Lowered front knobs on stove Bathroom mirror slanted or lowered Bathroom cabinet and sink lowered Access under bathroom sink Grab bars at bathtub Category B units have all of the above features in addition to a roll-in-shower. Modified units, therefore, refer to units that have been adapted to assist persons with a physical disability or impairment. Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 43

51 Overall, there are 33 units with Category B design features and 109 units with Category A design features. Table 19: Summary of Modified Units in Windsor- Essex County, As of February 2009 Design Bedrooms (Size) Modified Units (#) A One bedroom 55 A Two bedrooms 40 A Three bedrooms 12 B One bedroom 19 B Two bedrooms 10 B Three bedrooms 2 B Four bedrooms 1 Source: City of Windsor, Social Housing Department Information on the application process for modified units as well as further information on procedures is provided in Options Report: Strategies for the Coordination of Housing Policies, Programs and Actions. Table 20: Total Non-Profit Housing Supply by Mandate, Windsor-Essex, As of January 2009 Type of Housing Bachelor 1 Bedrm 2 Bedrms 3 Bedrms 4 Bedrms Total City of Windsor Family Integrated ,200 Seniors 99 1, ,574 Single Native Total 185 1,560 1, ,873 Amherstburg Integrated Seniors Total Kingsville Seniors Total Lakeshore Integrated Seniors Total LaSalle Family Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 44

52 Table 20: Total Non-Profit Housing Supply by Mandate, Windsor-Essex, As of January 2009 Type of Housing Bachelor 1 Bedrm 2 Bedrms 3 Bedrms 4 Bedrms Total Total Leamington Integrated Seniors Total Tecumseh Integrated Total Total Projects Family Integrated ,457 Senior 99 1, ,831 Single Native Total 185 1,738 1,210 1, ,457 Proportion of Social Housing Stock 4.2% 39.0% 27.1% 25.5% 2.3% 100.0% Source: City of Windsor, Social Housing Department Data provided by the Ontario Non-Profit Housing Association (ONPHA) reports that, as of 2008, there were 2,031 applicants waiting for social housing in Windsor/Essex. This represents an increase of 284 applicants (16.3%) from The number of applicants peaked in 2006 at 2,168 followed by a decline of 137 applicants in 2007, then remained steady from 2007 to Figure 34: Social Housing Waiting List in Windsor-Essex County, Households on the Waiting List 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, , , , ,031 2, Active Households Year Difference from previous year Source: ONPHA and Tim Welch Consulting, July Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 45

53 Data obtained from the Central Housing Registry of Windsor/Essex, show that there were 1,951 applicants for social housing in 2008; an increase from 1,830 in This data reflects the periods from January 2007 to December 2007 and January 2008 to October 2008, whereas the data provided by ONPHA was as of January As of January 2009, there were a total of 1,809 applicants waiting for units and this number jumped to 2,309 by the end of the year in December. This represents an increase of 358 applicants in less than a year. Figure 35: Social Housing Waiting List, as of December bedrooms bedrooms bedrooms 48 Bachelor 8 1 bedroom bedrooms 447 Bachelor 1 bedroom 2 bedrooms 3 bedrooms 4 bedrooms 5 bedrooms Source: City of Windsor, Central Housing Registry, 2010 During this time of economic uncertainty it might be expected that there would be an increase in the number of applicants on the social housing waiting list. It is likely, however, that some potential applicants have left the area, while others are still receiving benefits and assistance from their previous employers that enable them to remain in the private market. Others may be finding rental housing in the private market in light of the current high vacancy rates. From the data on social housing stock, it can be seen that dedicated seniors units represent 39% of the non-profit housing stock, whereas the waiting list data show that approximately 8% of applicants are seniors. This mismatch between the supply and demand is reflective in the wait times for units. Seniors have a wait time of one to six months while non-senior singles are usually waiting a minimum of five-years. Housing Analysis and Recommended Strategy (HARS) 46